Core Viewpoint - April sales data for heavy trucks met expectations, with production, wholesale, and export figures aligning with forecasts [12][14][26]. Data Overview - Wholesale: In April, heavy truck wholesale sales reached 88,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +6.5% and -21.4% respectively, meeting expectations [2][11]. - Terminal: Heavy truck terminal sales in April totaled 69,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +5.9% and -4.3%, also in line with expectations [2][11]. - Export: Heavy truck export sales in April were 26,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +0.8% and -7.2%, consistent with forecasts [2][11]. - Inventory: The total industry inventory decreased by 670 units, with the current total inventory at 150,000 units, indicating a reasonable level [2][11]. April Sales Performance - Production: Heavy truck production in April was 78,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +2.2% and -32.4% [14]. - Industry Structure: New energy heavy trucks continued to grow significantly, with April sales reaching 16,000 units, reflecting year-on-year growth of +243% and a penetration rate of 22.9% [14]. - Natural Gas Trucks: April sales of natural gas heavy trucks were 17,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -35.2% and -21.0% [14]. Market Structure - Terminal Market: In April, market shares for major manufacturers were as follows: Jiefang 19.2%, Dongfeng 22.5%, Heavy Truck 17.3%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.5%, and Foton 12.2% [4][54]. - Export Market: In April, market shares for exports were: Jiefang 14.4%, Dongfeng 8.7%, Heavy Truck 46.8%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 14.4%, and Foton 11.0% [4][59]. Engine Market - Engine Market Share: In April, Weichai maintained the highest market share at 20.2%, despite a month-on-month decline [5][68]. - Weichai's terminal matching volume was 14,000 units, with significant year-on-year and month-on-month declines of -38.5% and -20.1% respectively [5][74]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance driven by the National IV policy, recommending investments in China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, while highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton [6][80].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported a significant revenue increase in Q1, driven by a substantial rise in vehicle deliveries, indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency [3][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with vehicle sales contributing 14.37 billion yuan, up 159.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company recorded a net loss of 660 million yuan in Q1, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 430 million yuan, showing a reduction compared to previous quarters [3]. - Gross margin improved to 15.6%, with vehicle gross margin at 10.5%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth [4]. - R&D expense ratio decreased to 12.5%, while sales, administrative, and general expense ratio fell to 12.3%, indicating effective cost control [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the Mona M03 MAX and a new generation of P7, which are expected to enhance market presence and drive sales [5]. - AI technology integration is a key focus, with the production of self-developed Turing chips set to begin in Q2 2025, aiming to strengthen competitive advantage in the automotive sector [5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 94.7 billion, 167.6 billion, and 249.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 132%, 77%, and 49% respectively [6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is revised down to 350 million yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [6]. Key Financial Metrics - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.18, 4.02, and 6.32 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 412, 19, and 12 [6]. - The company aims to achieve profitability by 2025, supported by enhanced AI capabilities and new product launches [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth and improved gross margins in Q1 2025, indicating strong operational performance and strategic advancements in the electric vehicle market [3][4][6]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 10.02 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 187.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 25.6% [3]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 14.9% in Q1 2025, a historical high, with year-on-year growth of 16.3% and a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6 percentage points [4]. - The net loss for Q1 2025 was 130 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.01 billion yuan in Q1 2024 and a profit of 80 million yuan in Q4 2024 [3][4]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company sold 88,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 162.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.6% [4]. - As of March 2025, the company has established 756 sales outlets and 449 service centers across 279 cities, with plans to expand coverage to 90% in cities above the prefecture level by the end of 2025 [4]. Export and International Strategy - In Q1 2025, the company exported 7,500 vehicles and has established over 500 sales and service points internationally, with more than 450 in Europe [4]. - The company is advancing local assembly projects in Malaysia and plans to initiate localized manufacturing in Europe by 2026 [4]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 610 million, 4.4 billion, and 7.67 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting confidence in new vehicle launches and market positioning [6]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its strategic advantages in the mainstream electric vehicle market and collaborations with Stellantis and FAW [6].

Core Viewpoints - Automotive glass is a high-quality component sector with continuous upgrade capabilities, driven by electrification, intelligence, and consumer upgrades. The product functionalities are expanding beyond traditional roles to include heat insulation, sound insulation, heating, hydrophobic properties, dimming, antennas, lightweight designs, HUD windshields, and panoramic roofs. The revenue structure of Fuyao is increasingly focused on high-value-added products, leading to a sustained increase in the price per square meter of automotive glass, projected to rise from 131.06 RMB/sqm in 2012 to 229.11 RMB/sqm in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% and an 8% CAGR over the last three years [2][8][20]. Group 1: Electrification Cycle - The current phase of automotive glass upgrades is centered around panoramic roofs, HUD windshields, and dual-layer side windows. Panoramic roofs are larger and more aesthetically pleasing than traditional sunroofs, with additional heat insulation features that enhance their value. HUD windshields utilize wedge-shaped PVB interlayers to significantly increase their value, while the value of side windows is enhanced through added functionalities such as sound insulation and heat insulation [3][4][8]. Group 2: Intelligence Cycle - Automotive glass is poised for significant upgrades as a medium for information transmission in the wave of intelligence. Smart dimming glass can create a more comfortable cabin environment, and as technology and costs improve, its penetration rate is expected to rise. The demand for integrated glass antennas is also increasing, as glass does not obstruct signals, allowing for seamless integration without compromising vehicle aesthetics. Glass displays represent another new direction for smart cockpits, enabling direct integration of screens or optical projections into automotive glass [4][5][60]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends Fuyao Glass, a global leader in the automotive glass industry. The company is actively expanding the boundaries of "one piece of glass," enhancing research on smart glass and integration trends, and continuously advancing its aluminum trim business to increase the value per vehicle. Fuyao is expected to capture more market share from competitors in overseas markets due to its high quality and cost-effective competitive advantages [5][8].

Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions [4][8] - The market showed strong performance in the automotive sector, with passenger vehicles and components leading the gains, influenced by better-than-expected adjustments in US-China tariffs and previous significant corrections in the automotive market [4][8] Weekly Review Summary - In the second week of May, the number of compulsory insurance policies reached 443,000 vehicles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.5% and a month-on-month increase of 29.8% [2][7] - The SW automotive index rose by 2.4%, with the best-performing segments being SW passenger vehicles (+4.4%) and SW automotive components (+2.2%), while commercial vehicles and motorcycles showed declines [2][7] Key Industry Changes - Weipai New Energy launched the 2025 model of the Gaoshan vehicle, equipped with the Coffee Pilot Ultra intelligent driving assistance system [3][7] - BYD was added to the Hang Seng Technology Index [3][7] - Geely Automobile reported Q1 2025 revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 263.4% year-on-year [3][7] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Wuhu Changpeng was completed, and the company was renamed Wuhu Top [3][7] - Baolong Technology's second phase of the 4.8MW distributed photovoltaic project in Ningguo was completed and accepted [3][7] Sector Configuration Recommendations - The company maintains a positive outlook for 2025, focusing on three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions, with the robotics theme expected to have the highest elasticity in May [5][8] - Recommended stocks for the AI robotics theme include Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Precision Forging Technology [5][8] - For the AI intelligence theme, preferred stocks include Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and Xiaomi in Hong Kong, and Seres, SAIC Motor, and BYD in A-shares [5][8] - The favorable market conditions theme includes recommendations for bus manufacturers like Yutong Bus and heavy-duty trucks like China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power [5][8] Market Performance Tracking - The automotive sector ranked third in A-shares and first in Hong Kong this week, with strong performances in passenger vehicles and components [12][21] - The automotive sector's performance in the SW index showed significant gains, with passenger vehicles leading the way [15][21] Sales Data Overview - In April, the total number of passenger vehicles insured was 443,000, with a year-on-year increase of 29.8% [44] - New energy vehicles accounted for 222,000 units, with a penetration rate of 50.2% [44]

| 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司2025Q1单季度营收725.0亿元，同比+24.5%；归母净利润56.7亿元，同比+263.4%。高于业 绩预告中值，表现符合我们预期。 Q1业绩符合预期： 会计准则方面Q1吉利已实现领克并表，2024Q1同期数据已进行重列。1） 营收： 公司Q1实现 总销量70.4万台，同环比分别+48.0%/+2.5%；单车ASP为10.3万元，同比-15.8%，原因为价格 竞争影响&单价较低的吉利主品牌销量占比同比+3.6pct。 2）毛利率： 2025Q1毛利率为 15.8％，同比+0.2pct，改善主要原因为规模效应&新能源产品盈利能力增强。 3）费用率： 25Q1销售/研发/行政费用率分别为5.0%/4.6%/2.0%，同比分别-2.1/0.0/-0.5pct。费用管控效果显 著。 4）其他收益： 25Q1公司其他收益35.9亿元，同环比分别+753.4%/+1613.1%，主要为汇兑 损益贡献。 5）净利润： 剔除其他收益&股份支付费用后公司Q1净利润为24.4亿元，同比 +84.3%。公司整体单车盈利为0.29万元，同比+59.1%。规模效应&一个吉利战略下 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周复盘总结： 五月第一周交强险41.6万辆，环比上周/上月周度-5.9%/+26.5% 。 本周SW汽车指数+0.5%，细 分板块涨跌幅排序: SW摩托车及其他(+2.7%) >SW汽车零部件(+2.4%) >重卡指数(+2.4%) > SW 汽车(+2.0%)>SW乘用车(+1.8%)>SW商用载客车(0.0%) >SＷ商用载货车(-0.3%) 本周已覆盖标的 吉利汽车、中鼎股份、理想汽车-W、恒帅股份、亚太股份涨幅较好。 本周团队研究成果： 外发深度报告《以地平线为例，探究第三方智驾供应商核心竞争力》，外发摩托车系列深度第 一、二篇，外发飞龙股份、福达股份深度报告，外发2024Q4&2025Q1业绩综述，外发上海车展 总结，外发潍柴动力、保隆科技、伯特利、岱美股份、恒帅股份、双环传动、新泉股份、松原 安全、银轮股份2025一季报点评。 本周行业核心变化： 1） 理想汽车L系列发布2025款智能焕新版车型，L6/L7/L8/L9智能化、电池等升级，官方指导 价格不变； 2） 吉利汽车计划收购极氪已发行全部股份； 3） 文灿股份子公司获新客户三合一 电机壳体定点，预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the breakthrough opportunities for leading third-party intelligent driving suppliers, driven by the demand for equal access to intelligent driving and the performance catch-up and mass production validation [2][8]. Group 1: Market Opportunities - Leading third-party intelligent driving suppliers are expected to become the optimal solution for second- and third-tier automakers seeking equal access to intelligent driving, with a potential market share of around 50% of total new car sales [2][8]. - The current trend of intelligent driving is accelerating towards equal access, with a focus on cost reduction in systems, as automakers balance performance and cost in their strategies [2][8]. Group 2: Domestic Chip Comparison - NVIDIA's Orin series chips currently dominate the high-end intelligent driving market, but domestic chip suppliers have made significant progress in performance, mass production validation, and customer acquisition over the past five years [3][39]. - The domestic chip leader, Horizon Robotics, is entering a new cycle of product iteration and business model elevation, leading in the rollout of mid- to high-end intelligent driving chips and algorithms [11][39]. Group 3: Core Value of Third-Party Chip Suppliers - The importance of being a first mover is highlighted, as intelligent driving chips typically require over three years of R&D and manufacturing cycles, necessitating continuous iteration capabilities for cost-performance balance [4][54]. - The design and manufacturing cost perspective indicates that a 7nm intelligent driving chip can achieve cost parity with mature chip procurement at a production volume of 1.5 million units, emphasizing the need for high output and rapid iteration capabilities for self-developed chips [4][57]. Group 4: Algorithm Insights - The "BEV + Transformer" algorithm approach, focusing on "heavy perception, light mapping," has been validated and widely applied, reducing risks for Tier 1 suppliers and allowing them to keep pace with cutting-edge technologies [4][62]. - Horizon Robotics' latest intelligent driving algorithm, HSD, is positioned as a "showcase," balancing performance and efficiency while addressing the challenges of scaling up and out in intelligent driving systems [62][63]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The intelligent driving landscape is expected to see a significant shift towards equal access by 2026, with many domestic automakers planning to adopt domestic chips as their mainstream solution [28][43]. - The competitive landscape among automakers is intensifying, with a focus on high-level intelligent driving capabilities and the need for cost-effective solutions [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company has established itself as a leader in the automotive parts industry, particularly in engine cooling and emission reduction components, with a strong focus on both traditional and new energy vehicles, leading to significant revenue growth and profitability improvements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Business Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the automotive parts industry for over 60 years, starting production in 1964 and transitioning into the new energy sector in 2009, forming a comprehensive product matrix that includes traditional and new energy components [1][2][12]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 4.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.92% [1][22]. Group 2: Main Business Performance - The company maintains a solid foundation in its core products: mechanical water pumps, exhaust manifolds, and turbocharger housings, with a market share of 25% in mechanical water pumps and 20% in turbocharger housings [2][22]. - The exhaust manifold segment is experiencing a surge in demand due to the dual carbon goals, with the company investing in research and development to create heat-resistant steel exhaust manifolds [2][43]. - The turbocharger housing segment is benefiting from the increasing sales of hybrid vehicles, with projected sales exceeding 5 million units in 2024 [2][56]. Group 3: New Energy and Non-Automotive Business Expansion - The company's new energy business, primarily from electronic pumps and thermal management components, is expected to generate 526 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.44% [3][22]. - The non-automotive business is expanding through data center liquid cooling solutions, with expectations for sustained growth in the next 1-2 years [3][84]. - The company has established subsidiaries in Southeast Asia, with a factory in Thailand set to begin production in September 2025, projected to contribute an additional 1.5 billion yuan in revenue [5][22]. Group 4: Profitability and Investment Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 5.447 billion yuan, 6.268 billion yuan, and 6.942 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 455 million yuan, 631 million yuan, and 789 million yuan respectively [6][22]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its profitability through improved cost management and product structure optimization, with gross margins expected to reach 21.5% in 2024 [26][29].

Core Viewpoint - The company, a leader in crankshafts, is leveraging opportunities in the new energy and robotics sectors to create new growth trajectories [1][5]. Group 1: Company Overview and Growth Strategy - Established in 1995 and listed in 2014, the company specializes in crankshafts, clutches, precision forgings, gears, and bolts, positioning itself as a domestic leader in crankshafts [1][12]. - In 2022, the company entered the new energy sector with electric drive gears and plans to develop robotic gear products by 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards new growth areas [1][5]. Group 2: Crankshaft Demand and Market Dynamics - The demand for crankshafts is expected to rise due to the increasing sales of hybrid vehicles, which still require crankshafts despite the rise of pure electric vehicles [2][48]. - The company has successfully transitioned its crankshaft business from commercial vehicles to passenger vehicles, with over 50% of its crankshaft supply for BYD in 2024 [2][58]. - A new production line with a capacity of 1 million hybrid crankshafts is expected to be operational by May 2025, further enhancing the company's market position [2][53]. Group 3: New Energy Gear Expansion - The company established a new energy electric drive technology subsidiary in May 2022, investing 408 million yuan to develop precision gear products, with production expected to start in July 2024 [3][18]. - The company has secured multiple projects with major clients like BYD and Geely, indicating strong demand for its new energy gear products [3][18]. Group 4: Robotics Business Development - In 2024, the company entered the robotics sector by acquiring a 35% stake in Changban (Yangzhou) Robot Technology, showcasing its commitment to diversifying its business [5][18]. - The company aims to leverage its existing customer base and technical expertise in precision gears to establish a foothold in the robotics market [5][18]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Projections - The company experienced a significant rebound in 2022, with revenues of 1.135 billion yuan, a 37.5% decline from the previous year, but is projected to achieve revenues of 1.648 billion yuan in 2024, a 21.89% increase [24][25]. - Forecasts suggest revenues of 2.434 billion yuan, 3.019 billion yuan, and 3.394 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 301 million yuan, 385 million yuan, and 460 million yuan [6][25].