未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周复盘总结： 五月第一周交强险41.6万辆，环比上周/上月周度-5.9%/+26.5% 。 本周SW汽车指数+0.5%，细 分板块涨跌幅排序: SW摩托车及其他(+2.7%) >SW汽车零部件(+2.4%) >重卡指数(+2.4%) > SW 汽车(+2.0%)>SW乘用车(+1.8%)>SW商用载客车(0.0%) >SＷ商用载货车(-0.3%) 本周已覆盖标的 吉利汽车、中鼎股份、理想汽车-W、恒帅股份、亚太股份涨幅较好。 本周团队研究成果： 外发深度报告《以地平线为例，探究第三方智驾供应商核心竞争力》，外发摩托车系列深度第 一、二篇，外发飞龙股份、福达股份深度报告，外发2024Q4&2025Q1业绩综述，外发上海车展 总结，外发潍柴动力、保隆科技、伯特利、岱美股份、恒帅股份、双环传动、新泉股份、松原 安全、银轮股份2025一季报点评。 本周行业核心变化： 1） 理想汽车L系列发布2025款智能焕新版车型，L6/L7/L8/L9智能化、电池等升级，官方指导 价格不变； 2） 吉利汽车计划收购极氪已发行全部股份； 3） 文灿股份子公司获新客户三合一 电机壳体定点，预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the breakthrough opportunities for leading third-party intelligent driving suppliers, driven by the demand for equal access to intelligent driving and the performance catch-up and mass production validation [2][8]. Group 1: Market Opportunities - Leading third-party intelligent driving suppliers are expected to become the optimal solution for second- and third-tier automakers seeking equal access to intelligent driving, with a potential market share of around 50% of total new car sales [2][8]. - The current trend of intelligent driving is accelerating towards equal access, with a focus on cost reduction in systems, as automakers balance performance and cost in their strategies [2][8]. Group 2: Domestic Chip Comparison - NVIDIA's Orin series chips currently dominate the high-end intelligent driving market, but domestic chip suppliers have made significant progress in performance, mass production validation, and customer acquisition over the past five years [3][39]. - The domestic chip leader, Horizon Robotics, is entering a new cycle of product iteration and business model elevation, leading in the rollout of mid- to high-end intelligent driving chips and algorithms [11][39]. Group 3: Core Value of Third-Party Chip Suppliers - The importance of being a first mover is highlighted, as intelligent driving chips typically require over three years of R&D and manufacturing cycles, necessitating continuous iteration capabilities for cost-performance balance [4][54]. - The design and manufacturing cost perspective indicates that a 7nm intelligent driving chip can achieve cost parity with mature chip procurement at a production volume of 1.5 million units, emphasizing the need for high output and rapid iteration capabilities for self-developed chips [4][57]. Group 4: Algorithm Insights - The "BEV + Transformer" algorithm approach, focusing on "heavy perception, light mapping," has been validated and widely applied, reducing risks for Tier 1 suppliers and allowing them to keep pace with cutting-edge technologies [4][62]. - Horizon Robotics' latest intelligent driving algorithm, HSD, is positioned as a "showcase," balancing performance and efficiency while addressing the challenges of scaling up and out in intelligent driving systems [62][63]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The intelligent driving landscape is expected to see a significant shift towards equal access by 2026, with many domestic automakers planning to adopt domestic chips as their mainstream solution [28][43]. - The competitive landscape among automakers is intensifying, with a focus on high-level intelligent driving capabilities and the need for cost-effective solutions [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company has established itself as a leader in the automotive parts industry, particularly in engine cooling and emission reduction components, with a strong focus on both traditional and new energy vehicles, leading to significant revenue growth and profitability improvements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Business Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the automotive parts industry for over 60 years, starting production in 1964 and transitioning into the new energy sector in 2009, forming a comprehensive product matrix that includes traditional and new energy components [1][2][12]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 4.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.92% [1][22]. Group 2: Main Business Performance - The company maintains a solid foundation in its core products: mechanical water pumps, exhaust manifolds, and turbocharger housings, with a market share of 25% in mechanical water pumps and 20% in turbocharger housings [2][22]. - The exhaust manifold segment is experiencing a surge in demand due to the dual carbon goals, with the company investing in research and development to create heat-resistant steel exhaust manifolds [2][43]. - The turbocharger housing segment is benefiting from the increasing sales of hybrid vehicles, with projected sales exceeding 5 million units in 2024 [2][56]. Group 3: New Energy and Non-Automotive Business Expansion - The company's new energy business, primarily from electronic pumps and thermal management components, is expected to generate 526 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.44% [3][22]. - The non-automotive business is expanding through data center liquid cooling solutions, with expectations for sustained growth in the next 1-2 years [3][84]. - The company has established subsidiaries in Southeast Asia, with a factory in Thailand set to begin production in September 2025, projected to contribute an additional 1.5 billion yuan in revenue [5][22]. Group 4: Profitability and Investment Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 5.447 billion yuan, 6.268 billion yuan, and 6.942 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 455 million yuan, 631 million yuan, and 789 million yuan respectively [6][22]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its profitability through improved cost management and product structure optimization, with gross margins expected to reach 21.5% in 2024 [26][29].

Core Viewpoint - The company, a leader in crankshafts, is leveraging opportunities in the new energy and robotics sectors to create new growth trajectories [1][5]. Group 1: Company Overview and Growth Strategy - Established in 1995 and listed in 2014, the company specializes in crankshafts, clutches, precision forgings, gears, and bolts, positioning itself as a domestic leader in crankshafts [1][12]. - In 2022, the company entered the new energy sector with electric drive gears and plans to develop robotic gear products by 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards new growth areas [1][5]. Group 2: Crankshaft Demand and Market Dynamics - The demand for crankshafts is expected to rise due to the increasing sales of hybrid vehicles, which still require crankshafts despite the rise of pure electric vehicles [2][48]. - The company has successfully transitioned its crankshaft business from commercial vehicles to passenger vehicles, with over 50% of its crankshaft supply for BYD in 2024 [2][58]. - A new production line with a capacity of 1 million hybrid crankshafts is expected to be operational by May 2025, further enhancing the company's market position [2][53]. Group 3: New Energy Gear Expansion - The company established a new energy electric drive technology subsidiary in May 2022, investing 408 million yuan to develop precision gear products, with production expected to start in July 2024 [3][18]. - The company has secured multiple projects with major clients like BYD and Geely, indicating strong demand for its new energy gear products [3][18]. Group 4: Robotics Business Development - In 2024, the company entered the robotics sector by acquiring a 35% stake in Changban (Yangzhou) Robot Technology, showcasing its commitment to diversifying its business [5][18]. - The company aims to leverage its existing customer base and technical expertise in precision gears to establish a foothold in the robotics market [5][18]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Projections - The company experienced a significant rebound in 2022, with revenues of 1.135 billion yuan, a 37.5% decline from the previous year, but is projected to achieve revenues of 1.648 billion yuan in 2024, a 21.89% increase [24][25]. - Forecasts suggest revenues of 2.434 billion yuan, 3.019 billion yuan, and 3.394 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 301 million yuan, 385 million yuan, and 460 million yuan [6][25].

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 摩托车海外市场近万亿空间，出口大有可为： 销量维度，2024年海外摩托车市场销量4000万辆以上，大排量销量约344万辆，为国内8-9倍空 间；收入维度，2024年海外摩托车市场规模9320亿元，近万亿级别市场。据摩托车商会，2024 年中国品牌摩托车出口1102万辆，海外市占率25.7%，其中大排量出口仅35.9万辆，海外份额 10.4%，中国品牌海外份额提升空间大，出口大有可为。 欧美澳引领玩乐市场，亚非拉主导通路车大市场： 收入维度，海外主要大市场包括：东南亚（2.3千亿元）南亚（2.7千亿元）欧洲（1.6千亿元） 拉美（1.3千亿元）北美（562亿元）。不同市场需求结构及竞争格局迥异，日系品牌统领全 球，欧美系品牌在高端市场领先，同时各地本土品牌百花齐放。 细分来看，北美： 美国占90%，规模约60万辆+大排量渗透率90%以上的高端市场，日系+本土 品牌为主； 拉美： 规模约450万辆且持续扩容+大排量渗透率10%的中端市场，日系+本土品牌 为主，印度系/中国品牌均有一定份额，此外中国品牌为当地本土品牌代工并贴牌出口； 欧洲 核心五国： 规模100万辆以上且持续 ...

Core Viewpoints - The growth of the motorcycle market is driven by two key factors: exports and large-displacement motorcycles, with the latter transitioning from a tool to a consumer product [2][8][11] - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2030, reaching 800,000 units by 2030 [3][77][80] - The overseas motorcycle market presents a substantial opportunity for Chinese brands, with an expected market size of 932 billion yuan in 2024, and a significant growth potential for large-displacement exports [4][8][11] Group 1: Market Overview - The annual motorcycle sales in China range from 19 to 20 million units, with small-displacement models dominating the market [2][15] - The motorcycle industry has undergone three phases: popularization, decline, and differentiated growth, with a notable shift towards large-displacement motorcycles since 2020 [2][19][20] - The domestic sales of fuel motorcycles are projected to decline from 7.71 million units in 2019 to 5.44 million units in 2024, while large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to grow from 110,000 to 400,000 units during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 28.8% [3][32] Group 2: Large-Displacement Motorcycle Market - The penetration rate of large-displacement motorcycles in China is expected to increase from 1.5% in 2019 to 7.5% in 2024, indicating a growing consumer interest in this segment [3][41] - The market for large-displacement motorcycles is being driven by rising outdoor sports demand and the development of motorcycle culture, with a significant increase in motorcycle events and clubs [3][48][56] - By 2024, the share of 400-500cc models is expected to rise to 46%, indicating a trend towards higher performance and larger displacement motorcycles [3][63] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The overseas motorcycle market is projected to exceed 40 million units in 2024, with large-displacement motorcycle sales estimated at 3.44 million units, representing a significant growth opportunity for Chinese manufacturers [4][8] - In 2024, Chinese motorcycle exports are expected to reach 11.02 million units, with a 25.7% share of the overseas market, highlighting the potential for further growth in large-displacement exports [4][8] - The export of large-displacement motorcycles is accelerating, with a CAGR of 67.6% from 2022 to 2024, as domestic brands enhance their international presence [4][8] Group 4: Key Players - The leading companies in the large-displacement motorcycle market include Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang, with Chunfeng expected to become the market leader in 2024 [5][9] - Chunfeng's motorcycle sales are projected to grow from 45,000 units in 2019 to 308,000 units in 2024, with a focus on large-displacement products [5][9] - Longxin's large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to increase from 21,000 units in 2019 to 108,000 units in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 38.6% [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for 2024, while the Q1 2025 results met expectations, indicating a potential recovery trend in profitability [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.1% to 300 million yuan. The adjusted net profit was 250 million yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 1.90 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.5% and a year-on-year increase of 76.5% in net profit [2][4]. Business Segment Analysis - The company's core business remains stable, with strong growth in new business segments. In 2024, revenue from the sensor and air suspension businesses reached 670 million yuan and 990 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.4% and 41.8%. The growth in the sensor business is driven by product expansion and new customer acquisition, while the air suspension business benefits from the rapid production and sales of key models [3][4]. Margin and Expense Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 25.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower margins in new businesses. The gross margins for the sensor and air suspension businesses were 17.1% and 22.6%, respectively. The company maintained a stable expense ratio of 18.8% despite increased stock incentive costs, leading to a net profit margin of 4.3% for 2024 [4][7]. Q1 2025 Performance Recovery - In Q1 2025, the company saw a significant improvement in profitability metrics, with a gross margin of 23.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0 percentage points but an increase of 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin improved to 5.0%, indicating a recovery in performance [5][7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 9.1 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates. The projected revenue for 2027 is 13.5 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 30%, 22%, and 21% for the respective years. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have also been lowered to 510 million yuan and 720 million yuan [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported lower-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 2.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.5% [2]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 2.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 41.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 21.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 37.3% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 2.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the annual decline in downstream customer demand and the ongoing ramp-up phase of the Mexican factory [4]. Customer Demand and Product Performance - Key customer demand saw significant growth, with production from core clients Chery and Geely increasing by 29% and 43% year-on-year, respectively. The sales of Geely's Galaxy 3.0 platform models exceeded 170,000 units, contributing significantly to the growth in line control braking [3]. - In terms of product performance, sales of intelligent electronic control products (EPB + line control braking) increased by 58% year-on-year, while disc brake sales rose by 36% and lightweight products by 23% [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company experienced a scale effect in its expense management, with the expense ratio for Q1 2025 at 7.40%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3 percentage points. The breakdown of expense ratios included sales expense ratio at 0.41%, management expense ratio at 2.55%, R&D expense ratio at 4.87%, and financial expense ratio at -0.45% [4]. Order Acquisition and International Expansion - The company successfully acquired 416 new projects in 2024, with specific increases in projects for disc brakes, lightweight products, and mechanical steering columns [5][6]. - The expansion of the Mexican production capacity is progressing smoothly, with the first phase of the project, which has an annual capacity of 4 million lightweight components, having commenced production by the end of Q3 2023. The company is actively advancing plans for an annual capacity of 7.2 million lightweight components and 2 million brake calipers in Mexico, with expectations for volume and profit growth by 2025 [7]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 12.92 billion, 15.50 billion, and 18.38 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 30%, 20%, and 19%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 1.55 billion, 1.88 billion, and 2.29 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 21% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating short-term pressure on performance, primarily due to a decrease in sales from joint venture clients in the cleaning system business [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 203 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.04% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.44% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 42 million yuan, down 35.48% year-on-year and 16.71% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a net profit margin of 20.61%, which is a decline of 6.21 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 32.22%, down 4.57 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to price reductions for clients [3]. Competitive Advantages - The company possesses core competencies in technology research and development, cost control, customer coverage, product expansion, and capacity layout [4]. - In technology R&D, the company has leading advantages in product development, testing, mold design, and the integration of fully automated production lines [4]. - Cost control is enhanced through a platform strategy and vertical integration of the supply chain, along with intelligent automated production [4]. - The company has established deep partnerships with major automotive manufacturers such as BMW, Geely, and North American electric vehicle clients, as well as international Tier 1 suppliers [4]. - The micro-motor technology serves as a platform technology with strong extensibility, allowing the company to diversify its application scenarios and product range [4]. - Ongoing construction of factories in Thailand and the United States is expected to improve global customer support efficiency and expand overseas market share [4]. Future Financial Projections - The company maintains forecasts for net profit attributable to the parent company at 251 million yuan, 303 million yuan, and 366 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.14 yuan, 3.79 yuan, and 4.57 yuan [6]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.75x, 20.48x, and 16.97x respectively [6].

| 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司公布2025年一季报，25Q1公司实现营收574.6亿元，同环比分别+1.9%/+6.9%，实现归母净 利 润 27.1 亿 元 ， 同 环 比 分 别 +4.3%/-9.7% ， 扣 非 后 归 母 净 利 润 24.8 亿 元 ， 同 环 比 分 别 +5.98%/-11.8%。 凯傲计提支出影响归母净利润4.72亿元： 根据一季报，25Q1凯傲增效计划计提支出14.65亿元，影响归母4.72亿元，加回后25Q1归母31.8 亿元，同环比分别+22.4%/+6.0%。根据凯傲公告，2025年全年增效计划预计计提2.4-2.6亿欧 元。 供应链降本持续释放利润，费用管控得当： 25Q1毛利率22.2%，同环比分别+0.5/-1.9pct，同比增长主因24Q2开始供应链降本效果持续体 现。25Q1公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别 5.6%/7.1%/3.55%，同比分别+0.3/+2.5/-0.2pct，环比 分别-0.6/+2.1/-0.35pct，其中25Q1管理费用40.9亿，同环比分别+56.6%/+50.4%，主因凯傲增效 计划支出影响。25Q1公司财 ...