Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in automotive intelligence, highlighting it as a revolution in transportation, with significant growth expected by 2025, particularly in L3 automation and Robotaxi services [2][11]. Group 1: Automotive Intelligence Revolution - Automotive intelligence is described as a transformative movement in transportation, with three key phases: enhancing vehicle sales through intelligence, enabling software monetization via Robotaxi, and fostering the global rise of domestic brands [2][11]. - The year 2025 is projected as a pivotal point for automotive intelligence, with urban NOA (L3 automation) becoming a top consideration for consumers when purchasing vehicles [2][11]. - The industry is characterized as a survival of the fittest, with future vehicle manufacturers likely to fall into three categories: B-end Robotaxi operators, C-end personalized brands, and high-end vehicle manufacturers [2][11]. Group 2: May Summary and Price War - May 2023 saw the initiation of a price war, with BYD reducing prices for its non-intelligent driving models due to slower inventory turnover and lower-than-expected demand for its intelligent driving versions [3][4][11]. - Significant new vehicle launches included the Li Auto L series, equipped with advanced hardware for next-generation intelligent capabilities, and the Xiaomi Yu7, which features laser radar and urban NOA capabilities [3][4][11]. - The introduction of the Xiaopeng Mona 03 Max marked the beginning of a new era in intelligent driving priced at 150,000 yuan, showcasing human-machine co-driving features [3][4][11]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations for 2025 - The article recommends focusing on intelligent vehicle manufacturers, particularly those listed in Hong Kong, such as Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, as well as A-share companies like BYD and SAIC [4][11]. - There is a positive outlook on incremental components related to automotive intelligence, including AI chips, domain controllers, and automotive electronics, with specific companies highlighted for investment [4][11]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The regulatory landscape is tightening, with increased scrutiny on L2 intelligent driving regulations and the potential for L3 commercial applications to emerge [5][12]. - The article anticipates that the effectiveness of the price war will be evaluated in June, particularly regarding consumer willingness to pay for intelligent driving features [7][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the integration of Grammer is deepening, and the overseas performance inflection point has been basically established [1][9][10] - The company has completed the acquisition of Grammer and is advancing integration from multiple aspects, despite challenges such as the global pandemic and chip shortages [1][20][23] - In 2024, the company will continue to deepen the integration of Grammer overseas, with measures including the divestiture of the loss-making North American TMD subsidiary and strategic adjustments in the European region [1][28][29] Group 2 - The passenger car seat market is accelerating, with a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan in China, driven by consumer upgrades [2][39][43] - The industry has high barriers to entry, creating a favorable competitive landscape, with major players being foreign and joint ventures [2][47][51] - The company has secured a substantial number of high-quality seat projects, covering major OEMs, and an employee stock ownership plan is expected to enhance profitability [2][57][59] Group 3 - The company forecasts a significant improvement in performance, with net profits projected to reach 6.46 billion yuan, 10.97 billion yuan, and 13.84 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [4][61] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the passenger car seat industry, benefiting from a broad market space and accelerated domestic substitution [4][64] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its performance reversal and expected valuation premium [4][64]

Core Conclusion - The insurance sales for compulsory traffic insurance reached 381,000 vehicles in the second week of May, showing a week-on-week decrease of 14.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.8% [2][7] - The SW automotive index increased by 1.2%, with the best-performing segments being SW commercial cargo vehicles (+9.4%) and SW passenger vehicles (+4.3%) [2][7] - The top five stocks covered this week include Jianghuai Automobile, Jingwei Hengrun-W, Seres, Huguang Co., and Fuyao Glass, all showing significant gains [2][7] Industry Changes - BYD's Ocean Network announced a limited-time car purchase discount of up to 53,000 yuan, with the starting price for 12 models in the Dynasty Network dropping to 63,800 yuan [3][7] - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with a net loss of 660 million yuan [3][7] - Leap Motor's Q1 revenue was 10.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 187.1% [3][7] - The S800 model from Zun Jie is expected to officially launch at the end of May [3][7] - Fuda Co.'s joint venture, Guilin Fuda Alfen, completed the transfer of 25% equity, with Fuda holding 25% and Alfen holding 75% [3][7] Sector Outlook - The automotive sector remains optimistic, focusing on three main lines: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions [4][8] - The automotive sector continues to lead the A-H share market, with passenger vehicles and components performing well [4][8] - Recommended stocks for the AI robotics line include Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Precision Forging Technology [4][8] - For the AI intelligence line, preferred stocks include Xiaopeng Motors-W, Li Auto-W, and Xiaomi Group-W in Hong Kong, and Seres and SAIC Group in A-shares [4][8] - The favorable market conditions line includes Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and Fuyao Glass [4][8] Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector ranked fourth in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this week, with a notable performance in commercial cargo vehicles [11][12] - The SW commercial cargo vehicle segment showed the best performance this week [16][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to recreate a market equivalent to China in the next 3-5 years [2][7]. - Supporting factors include favorable national policies aligning with the "Belt and Road" initiative, advanced technology and product quality of Chinese buses, and the end of domestic price wars leading to a resurgence in demand [2][7]. - The article suggests that the current bus industry cycle is driven by the absence of price wars domestically, an oligopolistic market structure, and higher profit margins in overseas markets compared to domestic ones [3][11]. Group 2 - The article outlines a small target of challenging the market value peak from 2015-2017 and a larger goal of establishing a new ceiling for the industry, marking the emergence of a true global bus leader [4][11]. - Investment recommendations include Yutong Bus as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, and King Long as a rapidly improving company with significant profit elasticity [5][9]. - Profit forecasts for Yutong Bus from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 46.3 billion, 55.5 billion, and 67.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 20%, and 22% respectively [5][9]. For King Long, the expected profits are 4.4 billion, 6.4 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 182%, 45%, and 28% respectively [5][9]. Group 3 - The April report indicates a decline in overall bus production and wholesale volume, with a slight increase in exports [12][14]. - The wholesale volume for April was 45,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% [14][15]. - The report highlights that the domestic market for buses is stabilizing, with Yutong and King Long maintaining significant market shares in both domestic and export markets [48][54].

Core Viewpoint - April sales data for heavy trucks met expectations, with production, wholesale, and export figures aligning with forecasts [12][14][26]. Data Overview - Wholesale: In April, heavy truck wholesale sales reached 88,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +6.5% and -21.4% respectively, meeting expectations [2][11]. - Terminal: Heavy truck terminal sales in April totaled 69,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +5.9% and -4.3%, also in line with expectations [2][11]. - Export: Heavy truck export sales in April were 26,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +0.8% and -7.2%, consistent with forecasts [2][11]. - Inventory: The total industry inventory decreased by 670 units, with the current total inventory at 150,000 units, indicating a reasonable level [2][11]. April Sales Performance - Production: Heavy truck production in April was 78,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +2.2% and -32.4% [14]. - Industry Structure: New energy heavy trucks continued to grow significantly, with April sales reaching 16,000 units, reflecting year-on-year growth of +243% and a penetration rate of 22.9% [14]. - Natural Gas Trucks: April sales of natural gas heavy trucks were 17,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -35.2% and -21.0% [14]. Market Structure - Terminal Market: In April, market shares for major manufacturers were as follows: Jiefang 19.2%, Dongfeng 22.5%, Heavy Truck 17.3%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.5%, and Foton 12.2% [4][54]. - Export Market: In April, market shares for exports were: Jiefang 14.4%, Dongfeng 8.7%, Heavy Truck 46.8%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 14.4%, and Foton 11.0% [4][59]. Engine Market - Engine Market Share: In April, Weichai maintained the highest market share at 20.2%, despite a month-on-month decline [5][68]. - Weichai's terminal matching volume was 14,000 units, with significant year-on-year and month-on-month declines of -38.5% and -20.1% respectively [5][74]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance driven by the National IV policy, recommending investments in China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, while highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton [6][80].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported a significant revenue increase in Q1, driven by a substantial rise in vehicle deliveries, indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency [3][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with vehicle sales contributing 14.37 billion yuan, up 159.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company recorded a net loss of 660 million yuan in Q1, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 430 million yuan, showing a reduction compared to previous quarters [3]. - Gross margin improved to 15.6%, with vehicle gross margin at 10.5%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth [4]. - R&D expense ratio decreased to 12.5%, while sales, administrative, and general expense ratio fell to 12.3%, indicating effective cost control [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the Mona M03 MAX and a new generation of P7, which are expected to enhance market presence and drive sales [5]. - AI technology integration is a key focus, with the production of self-developed Turing chips set to begin in Q2 2025, aiming to strengthen competitive advantage in the automotive sector [5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 94.7 billion, 167.6 billion, and 249.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 132%, 77%, and 49% respectively [6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is revised down to 350 million yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [6]. Key Financial Metrics - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.18, 4.02, and 6.32 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 412, 19, and 12 [6]. - The company aims to achieve profitability by 2025, supported by enhanced AI capabilities and new product launches [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth and improved gross margins in Q1 2025, indicating strong operational performance and strategic advancements in the electric vehicle market [3][4][6]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 10.02 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 187.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 25.6% [3]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 14.9% in Q1 2025, a historical high, with year-on-year growth of 16.3% and a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6 percentage points [4]. - The net loss for Q1 2025 was 130 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.01 billion yuan in Q1 2024 and a profit of 80 million yuan in Q4 2024 [3][4]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company sold 88,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 162.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.6% [4]. - As of March 2025, the company has established 756 sales outlets and 449 service centers across 279 cities, with plans to expand coverage to 90% in cities above the prefecture level by the end of 2025 [4]. Export and International Strategy - In Q1 2025, the company exported 7,500 vehicles and has established over 500 sales and service points internationally, with more than 450 in Europe [4]. - The company is advancing local assembly projects in Malaysia and plans to initiate localized manufacturing in Europe by 2026 [4]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 610 million, 4.4 billion, and 7.67 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting confidence in new vehicle launches and market positioning [6]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its strategic advantages in the mainstream electric vehicle market and collaborations with Stellantis and FAW [6].

Core Viewpoints - Automotive glass is a high-quality component sector with continuous upgrade capabilities, driven by electrification, intelligence, and consumer upgrades. The product functionalities are expanding beyond traditional roles to include heat insulation, sound insulation, heating, hydrophobic properties, dimming, antennas, lightweight designs, HUD windshields, and panoramic roofs. The revenue structure of Fuyao is increasingly focused on high-value-added products, leading to a sustained increase in the price per square meter of automotive glass, projected to rise from 131.06 RMB/sqm in 2012 to 229.11 RMB/sqm in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% and an 8% CAGR over the last three years [2][8][20]. Group 1: Electrification Cycle - The current phase of automotive glass upgrades is centered around panoramic roofs, HUD windshields, and dual-layer side windows. Panoramic roofs are larger and more aesthetically pleasing than traditional sunroofs, with additional heat insulation features that enhance their value. HUD windshields utilize wedge-shaped PVB interlayers to significantly increase their value, while the value of side windows is enhanced through added functionalities such as sound insulation and heat insulation [3][4][8]. Group 2: Intelligence Cycle - Automotive glass is poised for significant upgrades as a medium for information transmission in the wave of intelligence. Smart dimming glass can create a more comfortable cabin environment, and as technology and costs improve, its penetration rate is expected to rise. The demand for integrated glass antennas is also increasing, as glass does not obstruct signals, allowing for seamless integration without compromising vehicle aesthetics. Glass displays represent another new direction for smart cockpits, enabling direct integration of screens or optical projections into automotive glass [4][5][60]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends Fuyao Glass, a global leader in the automotive glass industry. The company is actively expanding the boundaries of "one piece of glass," enhancing research on smart glass and integration trends, and continuously advancing its aluminum trim business to increase the value per vehicle. Fuyao is expected to capture more market share from competitors in overseas markets due to its high quality and cost-effective competitive advantages [5][8].

Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions [4][8] - The market showed strong performance in the automotive sector, with passenger vehicles and components leading the gains, influenced by better-than-expected adjustments in US-China tariffs and previous significant corrections in the automotive market [4][8] Weekly Review Summary - In the second week of May, the number of compulsory insurance policies reached 443,000 vehicles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.5% and a month-on-month increase of 29.8% [2][7] - The SW automotive index rose by 2.4%, with the best-performing segments being SW passenger vehicles (+4.4%) and SW automotive components (+2.2%), while commercial vehicles and motorcycles showed declines [2][7] Key Industry Changes - Weipai New Energy launched the 2025 model of the Gaoshan vehicle, equipped with the Coffee Pilot Ultra intelligent driving assistance system [3][7] - BYD was added to the Hang Seng Technology Index [3][7] - Geely Automobile reported Q1 2025 revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 263.4% year-on-year [3][7] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Wuhu Changpeng was completed, and the company was renamed Wuhu Top [3][7] - Baolong Technology's second phase of the 4.8MW distributed photovoltaic project in Ningguo was completed and accepted [3][7] Sector Configuration Recommendations - The company maintains a positive outlook for 2025, focusing on three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions, with the robotics theme expected to have the highest elasticity in May [5][8] - Recommended stocks for the AI robotics theme include Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Precision Forging Technology [5][8] - For the AI intelligence theme, preferred stocks include Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and Xiaomi in Hong Kong, and Seres, SAIC Motor, and BYD in A-shares [5][8] - The favorable market conditions theme includes recommendations for bus manufacturers like Yutong Bus and heavy-duty trucks like China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power [5][8] Market Performance Tracking - The automotive sector ranked third in A-shares and first in Hong Kong this week, with strong performances in passenger vehicles and components [12][21] - The automotive sector's performance in the SW index showed significant gains, with passenger vehicles leading the way [15][21] Sales Data Overview - In April, the total number of passenger vehicles insured was 443,000, with a year-on-year increase of 29.8% [44] - New energy vehicles accounted for 222,000 units, with a penetration rate of 50.2% [44]

| 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司2025Q1单季度营收725.0亿元，同比+24.5%；归母净利润56.7亿元，同比+263.4%。高于业 绩预告中值，表现符合我们预期。 Q1业绩符合预期： 会计准则方面Q1吉利已实现领克并表，2024Q1同期数据已进行重列。1） 营收： 公司Q1实现 总销量70.4万台，同环比分别+48.0%/+2.5%；单车ASP为10.3万元，同比-15.8%，原因为价格 竞争影响&单价较低的吉利主品牌销量占比同比+3.6pct。 2）毛利率： 2025Q1毛利率为 15.8％，同比+0.2pct，改善主要原因为规模效应&新能源产品盈利能力增强。 3）费用率： 25Q1销售/研发/行政费用率分别为5.0%/4.6%/2.0%，同比分别-2.1/0.0/-0.5pct。费用管控效果显 著。 4）其他收益： 25Q1公司其他收益35.9亿元，同环比分别+753.4%/+1613.1%，主要为汇兑 损益贡献。 5）净利润： 剔除其他收益&股份支付费用后公司Q1净利润为24.4亿元，同比 +84.3%。公司整体单车盈利为0.29万元，同比+59.1%。规模效应&一个吉利战略下 ...