Core Viewpoint - Domestic electrolytic copper continues to accumulate inventory, with expectations for copper prices to rise following improvements in macroeconomic conditions [3]. Group 1: Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which will continue to suppress copper price increases [3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking effects against tariffs and the gradual onset of the off-season [3]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 780,000 tons, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 4.7% [4]. Group 3: Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 867 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Smelting - As of April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The current spot TC price is -44.30 USD/pound, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16, 2025, remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, had a cable enterprise operating rate of 82.34% as of May 22, 2025, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week [7]. - In April 2025, China's household air conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 152,000 lots, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 21,000 lots as of May 20, 2025, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous week [8].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a contraction with major indices declining during the week of May 19-23, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.57% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.88% [3] - The market showed a rapid rotation in themes, with precious metals and automobiles performing well, while the "dividend + small-cap" strategy demonstrated significant strength since April [3] Valuation Insights - As of May 23, 2025, the ChiNext Index is classified as "safe" in terms of valuation, while other major indices are at a "moderate" level [3] - In the CITIC first-level industry classification, sectors such as building materials, light industry manufacturing, and electric equipment are at a "danger" valuation level, while non-ferrous metals and utilities are considered "safe" [4] Fund Flow and Institutional Interest - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology, Fuchuang Precision, Bozhong Precision, Boshi Software, and Shengmei Shanghai [6] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 18.96 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 19.05 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect showing a slight outflow [6] ETF Performance - The median return for stock ETFs was -0.40% with a net outflow of 11.34 billion CNY, while commodity ETFs had a median return of 3.74% with a net outflow of 470 million CNY [6] Fund Dynamics - As of May 23, 2025, the degree of separation among fund clusters decreased, indicating an increase in excess returns for clustered stocks and funds [7]

Company Overview - Nobon Co., Ltd. was established in 2002, specializing in the R&D, production, and sales of differentiated and personalized water-jet non-woven materials and products [2] - The company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to have a CAGR of 17.7% and 2.8% respectively from 2015 to 2024 [2] - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and a net profit of 95.23 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit are expected to grow by 39.1% and 48.6% year-on-year respectively [2] - The revenue share of water-jet non-woven materials and products in 2024 is projected to be 31.7% and 67.5% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.2% and +27.8% [2] Industry Situation - Water-jet non-woven products are widely used in high-demand disposable consumer goods markets such as wet wipes and beauty care products due to their breathable, soft, lightweight, and antibacterial properties [3] - The production of water-jet non-woven fabric reached 1.51 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% from 2018 to 2023 [3] - The penetration rate of non-woven fabric in the market has been gradually increasing, reaching 18.6% in 2023, an increase of 7.7 percentage points compared to 2018 [3] - The market size for wet wipes in China is projected to be 12.92 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.0% from 2024 to 2029, particularly for makeup wipes and wet toilet paper [3] Competitive Advantages - The company has a complete and advanced production line for roll materials, with outstanding technological innovation capabilities, being the only company in China capable of mass-producing dispersible materials for supply to the U.S. [4] - The company is steadily increasing the proportion of differentiated and dispersible material production, completing a technical transformation project for differentiated production lines in 2024 [4] - The subsidiary Guoguang is one of the most comprehensive manufacturers of wet wipe products in China, with a revenue growth of 26.6% in 2024 and over 40% in Q1 2025 [4] - Guoguang is deepening cooperation with major clients such as Walmart and actively exploring new customers, leading to steady growth in orders [4] - The self-owned brand "Xiaozhijia" is rapidly expanding, with a revenue increase of 80.6% year-on-year in 2024 [4]

Group 1: Pig Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.20 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 2.81% [2] - The average price of 15 kg piglets is 35.56 yuan/kg, down 1.85% week-on-week [2] - The average weight of market pigs at slaughter is 129.38 kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.25%, indicating a shift towards inventory reduction [2] Group 2: Broiler Chicken Prices - The price of white feather broiler chickens fell to 7.36 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%, while chick prices remained stable at 2.85 yuan/chick [3] - Increased supply of contract chickens and inventory pressure on slaughter enterprises have weakened the willingness to purchase social chickens [3] - Caution among farmers regarding chick replenishment is noted due to the upcoming busy farming season in the north [3] Group 3: Grain Prices - The average spot price of corn rose to 2376.08 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week, while soybean meal and wheat prices fell [4] - Soybean meal prices decreased to 3028.00 yuan/ton, down 2.82%, reaching historically low levels [4] - Concerns over the import auction of corn and the release of targeted rice have led to a volatile short-term outlook for corn prices [4] Group 4: Natural Rubber Prices - The domestic natural rubber futures price is 14730 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.96% [5] - Supply issues due to adverse weather conditions have resulted in lower production, while demand recovery in tire manufacturing remains slow [5] - Upcoming discussions on zero tariffs for rubber imports between China and Thailand may significantly impact the import structure and market valuation [5]

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 分评级来看，高评级券（评级为AA+及以上）、中评级券（评级为AA）、低评级券（评级为AA-及以下） 本周涨跌幅分别为-0.06%、-0.41%、-0.52%，低评级券本周跌幅最大。分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券 余额大于50亿元）、中规模转债（余额在5至50亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于5亿元）本周涨跌幅分 别为+0.30%、-0.35%和-0.65%，小规模转债跌幅最大。分平价来看，超高平价券（转股价值大于130 元）、高平价券（转股价值在110至130元之间）、中平价券（转股价值在90至110元之间）、低平价券 （转股价值在70至90元之间）、超低平价券（转股价值小于70元）本周涨跌幅分别 为-1.14%、-0.38%、-0.45%、-0.31%、-0.21%，超高平价券跌幅最大。分行业来看，涨幅排名前30的可转 债主要来自化工（6只）、机械设备（4只）；跌幅居前的30只可转债主要来自汽车（5只）、机械设备（4 只）、化工（4只）等。 2、转债价格、平价和转股溢价率的均值分别为120.75 ...

Consumer Goods - The core consumer goods include electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, primarily targeting high-end markets in Europe and the United States [2] - In April 2025, U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, surpassing market expectations of 0%, while core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2] - The significant drop in retail data in April is attributed to the impact of tariffs, with consumer confidence index declining by 4.8 percentage points to 52.2, the lowest level since August 2022 [2] Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are primarily exported to Asia, accounting for 68% of export value in 2024, with key markets including Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore [4] - Forklift exports are mainly to Asia and Europe, with export values in 2024 accounting for 30% and 34% respectively [4] - Machine tool exports are predominantly to Asia, maintaining around 50% of export value from 2019 to 2024, with notable fluctuations in exports to Russia [4] - Mining machinery exports are concentrated in Asia, Africa, and Europe, with cumulative export values in the first four months of 2025 showing increases of 19% to Asia, 16% to Latin America, and 30% to Africa [4][7] Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export value of engineering machinery increased by 10% in the first four months of 2025, with the fastest growth seen in exports to Africa at 61% [5][6] - Cumulative export value to Africa reached 19% of total exports, an increase of 4 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [6] - In the first four months of 2025, cumulative exports of forklifts to Africa grew by 37%, and to Latin America by 24% [7] Industrial Capital Goods - In April 2025, the month-on-month export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines were 3%, 17%, and 23% respectively [8] - Cumulative export growth rates for the first four months of 2025 were -1% for forklifts, +9% for machine tools, and +28% for industrial sewing machines [8] Overall Machinery Exports - In April 2025, the export growth rates for major categories of engineering machinery, excavators, tractors, and mining machinery were 8%, 20%, 21%, and 28% respectively [9] - Cumulative growth rates for the first four months of 2025 were 10% for major engineering machinery, 21% for excavators, 28% for tractors, and 21% for mining machinery [9]

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The company specializes in copper cultural products, providing a variety of items such as copper ornaments and sculptures, and is ranked first in the Chinese market for copper cultural craft products with projected sales revenue of 1.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 7.3% from 2019 to 2024, which is 1.8% higher than the overall growth rate [6] - The restaurant industry is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in store numbers and a rise in market heat in first-tier cities during Q1 2025, driven by policy stimuli that are expected to improve demand [10] - In April 2025, retail sales in the gold and silver jewelry category increased by 25.3% year-on-year, supported by a low base and high investment demand for value preservation [15] - April 2025 fiscal data showed improvements in both revenue and expenditure, with notable increases in infrastructure-related spending and a recovery in the land market, supported by the issuance of new special bonds [21] - The AI server power market is projected to reach a scale of 35.1 to 45.5 billion yuan in 2025, driven by the rapid growth of AI and increasing power demand [27] Group 2: Company Insights - The company "Mingming is Busy" has rapidly expanded its business through a franchise model, achieving over 10,000 stores by 2024, with a GMV of 55.5 billion yuan [42] - The coal industry is experiencing a decline in operating revenue and cash flow, but overall debt repayment capacity remains strong, indicating manageable credit risk despite high leverage levels [33] - The mechanical industry has seen a double-digit export growth in excavators, tractors, and mining machinery to North America, despite facing adverse impacts from tariffs [48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various market factors during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025, indicating that momentum and growth factors yielded positive returns while liquidity, beta, and size factors experienced significant negative returns [2][3]. - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors included net profit discontinuity (1.30%), 5-day index moving average of trading volume (1.15%), and total asset gross profit margin TTM (1.02%) [3]. - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the top-performing factors were gross profit margin TTM (1.65%), single-quarter ROA (1.40%), and single-quarter total asset gross profit margin (1.26%) [3]. - The liquidity 1500 stock pool showed that the best-performing factors were 5-day average turnover rate (0.45%), 5-minute return skewness (0.36%), and downward volatility ratio (0.33%) [3]. Group 2 - The net asset growth rate factor performed well across various industries, while the net profit growth rate factor excelled in the steel industry [4]. - The earnings per share factor showed strong performance in the beauty and personal care industry, and the operating profit TTM factor performed well in the coal industry [4]. - The 5-day momentum factor exhibited significant momentum effects in the comprehensive industry, while reversal effects were notable in the oil and petrochemical, and food and beverage industries [4]. Group 3 - The PB-ROE-50 combination achieved significant excess returns in the CSI 500 stock pool, with an excess return of 1.15% [6]. - The public fund research stock selection strategy and private fund research tracking strategy both generated positive excess returns, with the public fund strategy outperforming the CSI 800 by 0.54% and the private fund strategy outperforming by 2.61% [7]. - The block trading combination experienced a decline in excess returns relative to the CSI All Index, with an excess return of -0.61% [8]. - The targeted issuance combination achieved excess returns relative to the CSI All Index, with an excess return of 0.12% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The export window for phosphate fertilizers has arrived, and the profitability of phosphate fertilizer companies is expected to be maintained due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Export Regulations and Market Dynamics - In May 2023, the General Administration of Customs released inspection regulations for fertilizer exports, effective December 1, 2023, which aims to improve the quality and increase the quantity of fertilizer exports [2]. - The export of phosphate fertilizers will be phased, with the first phase requiring customs declaration by October 15, focusing on exports from May to September [2]. - The total export quota for phosphate fertilizers in 2025 is expected to decrease compared to the previous year, which may impact domestic prices as the spring farming season has ended and demand has shifted to a low season [2][4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Profitability - As of May 23, 2025, the average prices for 55% monoammonium phosphate and 64% diammonium phosphate in China were 3,330 and 3,526 RMB per ton, reflecting increases of 9.8% and 6.7% respectively since the beginning of the year [3]. - Internationally, the average prices for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 660 and 695 USD per ton, with increases of 14.8% and 13.0% respectively [3]. - Despite the price increases, the average gross profit margins for these products have been declining, with both currently in a loss position [3]. Group 3: Export Volume Trends - In 2024, China's export volumes for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 2,004,700 and 4,563,200 tons, showing declines of 1.6% and 9.4% year-on-year [4]. - In the first four months of 2025, exports dropped significantly, with monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate volumes at 75,300 and 79,800 tons, down 75.7% and 85.3% year-on-year [4]. - The upcoming export window is expected to boost export volumes, which may support or uplift phosphate fertilizer prices [4]. Group 4: Raw Material Prices and Industry Position - Phosphate rock prices have remained high since 2021, with a current price of 1,020 RMB per ton as of May 23, 2025 [5]. - The majority of China's phosphate rock reserves are of medium to low grade, with only about 20% being high-grade [5]. - Leading companies in the phosphate chemical industry are securing high-grade phosphate resources, which enhances their production capabilities and cost advantages in producing high-quality phosphate products [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation) are expected to steadily increase their oil and gas production in response to national calls for "increasing reserves and production" amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Oil and Gas Production - In Q1 2025, the oil and gas equivalent production of the "Three Oil Giants" is projected to grow, with China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation showing year-on-year increases of 0.7%, 1.7%, and 4.8% respectively [2]. - The upstream capital expenditure plans for 2025 are set at 210 billion, 76.7 billion, and 130 billion yuan for China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation respectively, with expected production growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% [2]. Group 2: Transition to Renewable Energy - The "Three Oil Giants" are actively advancing their green and low-carbon transformation, with China National Petroleum Corporation aiming for natural gas to account for over 50% of its total production by 2024 [3]. - China National Petroleum Corporation has established over 10 million kilowatts of wind and solar power generation capacity and aims for a hydrogen production capacity of 8,100 tons per year, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [3]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is collaborating with CATL to build a nationwide battery swap network, targeting the construction of at least 500 battery swap stations this year and a total of 10,000 in the future [3]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation is advancing its CCUS projects, with the first offshore CCUS project in operation, expected to inject over 1 million tons of CO2 over the next decade [3]. Group 3: Oilfield Services Sector - The global upstream capital expenditure is expected to rebound in 2025, projected to exceed 582.4 billion dollars, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, which will benefit the oilfield services sector [4]. - The performance of oilfield service companies under the "Three Oil Giants" is improving, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation's subsidiaries reporting net profits of 0.887 billion, 0.541 billion, and 0.594 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 40%, 14%, and 18% respectively [4].