Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 0.83% this week, ranking 20th among 31 SW primary sectors, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.53% [4] - The top five performing stocks in the public utility sector were Jingneng Power (+15.95%), Delong Huineng (+12.85%), Shanghai Electric (+11.47%), Dalian Thermal Power (+7.61%), and Anhui Energy (+7.43%) [4] - The worst-performing stocks included Hengsheng Energy (-21.47%), Xin'ao Co. (-5.47%), Mindong Electric (-2.17%), Huatong Thermal (-2%), and Huaneng Hydropower (-1.92%) [4] Coal Price Trends - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices continued to decline this week, with Qinhuangdao Port's 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping by 33 CNY/ton [5] - Imported thermal coal prices also fell, with the price at Fangchenggang Port decreasing by 20 CNY/ton and at Guangzhou Port by 15 CNY/ton [5] Key Events - Guangdong's total transaction volume for 2026 is projected at 359.437 billion kWh, with an average transaction price of 37.214 CNY/kWh, down 5.03% year-on-year [6] - The electricity price for bilateral negotiations in 2026 is set at 37.221 CNY/kWh, with a total transaction volume of 4.779 billion kWh, reflecting a 17.74% increase from 2025 [6] - Nationwide electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh in November, a 6.2% year-on-year increase, with cumulative consumption from January to November at 9,460.2 billion kWh, up 5.2% [6] - As of the end of November, the total installed power generation capacity reached 3.79 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [7] Industry Outlook - The results of the Guangdong electricity price negotiations are in line with expectations, with potential pressure on the profitability of thermal power units, although the spot market may provide performance growth [8] - The outlook for other provinces suggests that the annual long-term contract prices in regions with stable monthly contracts, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are expected to remain stable [8] - The green electricity sector is anticipated to experience valuation recovery due to policy support and accelerated subsidies, despite a downward trend in electricity prices [8] - The investment returns for thermal and green electricity should align with the overall investment return levels to ensure financing viability [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience a震荡上涨, with major indices showing recovery in both volume and liquidity. Weekly financing increased significantly, with stock ETFs seeing a net inflow of 36.34 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference in December [5][6]. Industry Insights - The copper price outlook remains positive, supported by the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on optimizing traditional industries, including copper smelting. Despite a decrease in cable companies' operating rates, the supply-demand dynamics for copper are expected to remain tight into 2026, favoring price increases [5]. - The steel sector is facing a high inventory level for hot-rolled coils, the highest in five years. The Central Economic Work Conference has reiterated the need for controlling crude steel production, which may lead to a more balanced supply and improved profitability for the steel sector in the long term [6]. Utilities Sector - The annual long-term contract bidding results in Guangdong met expectations, with the comprehensive on-grid electricity price remaining stable. Additionally, the capacity subsidy in Shanghai has increased to 165 yuan per kilowatt for 2026. As of November, the total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative installed power generation capacity rose by 17.1% year-on-year [8]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The approval of oral semaglutide for weight loss by the FDA is expected to catalyze industry growth. Recent clinical data from Structure and Gilead Pharmaceuticals has shown promising results, and collaborations between Pfizer and Fosun Pharma for oral small molecule weight loss drugs are underway. Furthermore, Shiyao Innovation has announced a platform integration for its GLP-1 business [8].

Core Viewpoint - The oral weight loss drug sector is entering a critical commercialization phase, with significant regulatory approvals and partnerships indicating strong market potential and demand for innovative treatments [4][5][6]. Group 1: Recent Developments in Oral Weight Loss Drugs - On December 23, 2025, the FDA approved Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide for chronic weight management, marking a significant milestone for oral GLP-1 peptides [4]. - Eli Lilly's management anticipates that the oral small molecule weight loss drug orforglipron will likely receive approval by March 2026, potentially becoming the second approved oral weight loss medication [4]. - Recent data releases include Structure's report on aleniglipron, which showed a 11.3% weight loss in the 120mg dose group and 15.3% in the 240mg dose group after 36 weeks [4]. Group 2: Industry Partnerships and Strategic Moves - On December 9, 2025, Pfizer announced an exclusive collaboration with YaoPharma for the oral small molecule GLP-1R agonist YP05002, involving a $150 million upfront payment and up to $1.935 billion in milestones, indicating strong interest from multinational pharmaceutical companies in oral weight loss products [5]. - Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Innovation announced the establishment of a joint venture focused on innovative metabolic drug development, highlighting the recognition of the significant value in GLP-1 related metabolic disease medications [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Valuation Recovery - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a recovery in valuation, with the PE ratio stabilizing and increasing since Q1 2025, driven by macroeconomic conditions and supportive policies for innovative drugs [7]. - The global trend of returning to a rate-cutting environment, alongside increasing healthcare spending due to aging populations, is expected to expand the global demand for pharmaceuticals, particularly benefiting China's pharmaceutical industry [8]. Group 4: Investment Themes in Innovation - The investment focus is categorized into three phases: "0→1" for breakthrough technologies in innovative drugs, "1→10" for clinical validation of high-quality domestic innovative drugs, and "10→100" for leveraging China's efficiency in the pharmaceutical supply chain [9]. - The acceleration of business development (BD) for innovative drugs and the rise of high-end medical devices and consumables are seen as promising investment opportunities [9].

Group 1: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index is at 47.15 for December 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 10.19% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,533 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly price changes include rebar at -1.20%, cement price index at -0.49%, rubber at +1.00%, coke at -3.40%, coking coal at -0.14%, and iron ore at -0.63% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.01 percentage points, -0.90 percentage points, and -2.3 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The price of titanium dioxide increased by 0.77% week-on-week, while flat glass prices remained unchanged; the gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,744 yuan per ton, and the operating rate for flat glass is 73.89% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel at -0.51%, copper at +5.84%, and aluminum at +1.01%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing a turnaround to profit for some [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategory Prices - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a new high since 2012 at 460,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 6.35% week-on-week [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 2,060.56 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.98% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, with a calculated profit of 4,918 yuan per ton (excluding tax), an increase of 6.72% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 10 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 430 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [10] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,146.67 points this week, an increase of 1.95% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.30%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points [11] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being chemicals at +4.23% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is 28.64% and 95.13% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and trends in the credit bond market, focusing on both primary and secondary markets, as well as financial analysis by industry [4][5][6]. Group 2 - In the primary market, as of December 26, 2025, there have been 15,700 credit bonds issued since the beginning of 2025, totaling 13.91 trillion yuan, with 7,440 industrial bonds amounting to 8.60 trillion yuan [4]. - The public utility sector leads in issuance with 1.95 trillion yuan from 1,060 bonds, followed by non-bank financials at 1.38 trillion yuan from 1,407 bonds, and transportation at 1.00 trillion yuan from 805 bonds [4]. - The secondary market has seen credit bond yields experience an M-shaped trend, with four distinct phases: rapid increase in yields until mid-March, a decline until early July, another increase until late September, and a fluctuating decline from October onwards [4]. Group 3 - In terms of financial performance, total revenue for industrial bond issuers reached 53.88 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 3.50% year-on-year, while net profit totaled 2.43 trillion yuan, also down 3.32% [5]. - The non-bank financial sector boasts a net profit margin exceeding 30%, significantly higher than other sectors, with environmental protection and public utilities also showing margins above 10% [5]. - By the end of Q3 2025, industries such as construction and real estate faced high debt pressure, with asset-liability ratios above 70%, while media and defense sectors maintained lower ratios below 50% [6]. Group 4 - The total interest-bearing debt across industrial bonds reached 86.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.58% year-on-year, with non-bank financials, public utilities, and social services having over 70% of their total liabilities as interest-bearing debt [6]. - Industries with strong short-term debt repayment capabilities include textiles, defense, media, and light manufacturing, with cash covering over 100% of short-term debts, while non-bank financials and steel sectors showed weaker capabilities with coverage below 50% [6]. - Operating cash flow for industrial bond issuers saw a net inflow increase of 18.40% year-on-year, with 12 industries, including comprehensive and real estate, reporting positive growth in net inflows [6].

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Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance recently, with major indices experiencing significant gains, particularly in small-cap growth stocks, while certain sectors have underperformed [4][6]. Market Performance - Major A-share indices, including the CSI 500 and ChiNext, have seen substantial increases, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have had smaller gains [4]. - The current valuation levels of indices like the Sci-Tech 50 and Wind All A are relatively high, with PE (TTM) percentiles above 85% since 2010 [4]. - The small-cap growth style has outperformed, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense industries leading the gains, while beauty care and social services have lagged [4]. Important Events - The People's Bank of China has introduced a one-time credit repair policy, which will not display overdue information in personal credit reports for eligible individuals [5]. - The housing and urban-rural development meeting has set priorities for real estate development in 2026, with Beijing optimizing its real estate policies [5]. - The EU has extended economic sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, and Japan has finalized its budget for the 2026 fiscal year, reaching a historical high [5]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by favorable policies and increased capital inflows [6][7]. - Historical trends indicate a "spring rally" in the A-share market, with expectations for sustained economic growth and policy support to bolster market confidence [7]. - Focus on growth and consumer sectors is recommended, with particular attention to TMT and advanced manufacturing during the spring rally, as well as the commercial aerospace sector [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the basic chemical sector is expected to show significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of +41.4% as of December 26, 2025, ranking it fifth among all industries [3] - The basic chemical industry experienced a cyclical pattern in 2025, characterized by weak performance in the first half, a rebound driven by improved expectations in the middle, and active structural trends in the latter part of the year [3] - The performance of the basic chemical sector varied significantly across sub-industries, with lithium battery materials and phosphate chemicals benefiting from better-than-expected production and supply-demand improvements, leading to substantial price increases [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is gradually recovering, establishing a bottoming trend for the chemical industry, with downstream companies in a replenishment phase, which is expected to improve profitability [4] - The agricultural chemicals sector performed relatively well, with high prices for phosphate and potash fertilizers, while the pesticide industry is entering an initial recovery phase [4] - The lithium battery materials sector is seeing a significant recovery in profitability due to strong terminal demand and orderly expansion by leading companies [4] Group 3 - Emerging application areas such as AI, OLED, and robotics are becoming new growth engines for the basic chemical industry, driving strong demand for new materials [5] - The semiconductor industry is expanding due to increased AI computing power and data center construction, which in turn boosts demand for key materials like photoresists and electronic chemicals [5] - The rapid development of the humanoid robot industry is creating new demand for high-performance materials, with specific materials like PEEK and MXD6 showing high application potential due to their lightweight and high-strength characteristics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry faced significant challenges in 2025, with the China Petroleum and Petrochemical Index rising only 15.1%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which reflects the impact of fluctuating oil prices and market expectations [4]. Group 1: Oil and Gas Sector Performance - The "Big Three" oil companies (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) demonstrated resilience amid declining oil prices and narrowing refining margins, achieving stable performance and cash flow in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - In the second half of 2025, the negative impact of falling oil prices diminished, leading to a recovery in stock prices for the "Big Three," with respective A-share price changes of +16.3%, -9.8%, and +0.7% [5]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the "Big Three" are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and enhance natural gas market development, aiming for long-term growth despite oil price cycles [5]. Group 2: Refining and Chemical Sector - Leading refining and chemical stocks, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, showed strong price performance, with annual increases of 43.6% and 22.9%, respectively [6]. - The petrochemical industry is currently experiencing low price differentials for key products, indicating potential for recovery as the industry undergoes high-quality development driven by capacity expansion and structural optimization [6]. Group 3: Coal Chemical Sector - Coal chemical companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy saw stock price increases of 46.2% and 16.9%, respectively, amid a gradual easing of coal supply and demand since 2024 [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the average prices for domestic coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite were 1700 RMB/ton, 677 RMB/ton, and 931 RMB/ton, reflecting changes of +11.1%, -11.3%, and -10.5% respectively since the beginning of the year [8]. - The modern coal chemical sector is expected to develop positively in the context of energy transition, with traditional coal enterprises focusing on green transformation and deep clean utilization of coal [8].

据上海有色网（SMM）分析，近期磷酸铁锂企业与下游电芯厂继续展开涨价谈判，头部企业本次展开的是 第二轮谈涨，但大部分其他的材料厂第一轮谈涨仍未落地。下游电芯厂整体仍处于接受原料涨价导致正极 材料有涨价的趋势，但实际涨价落地仍需进一步等待上下游的谈判结果。若后续正极材料厂涨价落地将更 有利于锂价上涨向下游传导，打开上行空间。同时天齐锂业调整现货交易结算价模式也侧面论证下游旺盛 需求。 下游高频数据仍支持行业高景气度，碳酸锂库存连续19周处于去库 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2025年12月25日，湖南裕能、德方纳米、万润新能相继发布部分产线减产检修公告：其中湖南裕能预计检 修时间1个月，减少正极材料产品1.5-3.5万吨；万润新能预计检修时间1个月 ...