克而瑞地产研究
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行业数据|一二手房价同比降幅收窄,止跌回稳还需继续努力
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-15 06:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the overall stability and gradual improvement of China's economy and real estate market, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic policies and seasonal factors on market performance [2][4][6]. Economic Performance - In August 2025, China's industrial production grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showing strong growth rates of 8.1% and 9.3% respectively [4]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 5.1% [4]. - The total value of goods imports and exports was 38,744 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [4]. - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August [4]. Real Estate Market Trends - In August 2025, new housing sales continued to show seasonal low levels, with a total sales area of 57.44 million square meters, down 10.6% year-on-year [6][7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties decreased for six consecutive months, indicating reduced pressure on the industry [6][7]. - The average new home price in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% year-on-year, while second and third-tier cities saw declines of 2.4% and 3.7% respectively, with the rate of decline narrowing [11][12]. - Various local governments introduced 24 policies to optimize housing funds and 13 policies for subsidies and tax benefits in August [12]. Policy and Market Support - The State Council emphasized the need for coordinated policies to enhance domestic demand and improve the investment environment [6]. - The government plans to accelerate urban renewal and support high-quality land supply to stabilize the real estate market [8][20]. - The real estate development investment in the first eight months of 2025 was 60,309 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with a notable decline in land transaction volumes [24][26]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the real estate market may see a gradual improvement due to the ongoing implementation of supportive policies and the introduction of high-quality land [26][27]. - The inventory pressure in the real estate sector is expected to continue to improve, aided by the promotion of high-quality urban development and better land utilization [27].
政策动态 | 十省市开展要素市场化配置综合改革试点,赋予地方土地市场更大自主管理权(9.1-9.14)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-15 03:24
随着要素市场化配置试点的落实,势必将进一步加快提高各地的土地使用效率, 地方层面有望迎来更多实质性利好的细化政策和项目推进 。尤其是进一步放 权地方管理,以及允许探索用地类型转换等举措,将在供给侧为当前行业止跌回稳提供更多助力。 2025年第3 7 周 , 国务院开展要素市场化配置综合改革试点,将继续深化实践探索,不断提高土地要素市场化配置水平。发改委发文加快推进成熟资产类型 REITs 项目申报,保障性租赁住房项目建设为明确支持的项目类型。地方层面,因地方优化公积金类政策发布减少,本周发布政策频次显著回落。 01 周度中央:鼓励采取市场化方式盘活存量闲置土地,十省市率先试点落实 9月1 1 日,国务院批复了全国部分地区要素市场化配置综合改革试点实施方案。同意 2年内开展北京城市副中心、苏南重点城市、杭甬温、合肥都市圈、福厦 泉、郑州市、长株潭、粤港澳大湾区内地九市、重庆市、成都市等10个要素市场化配置综合改革试点。并印发了1 0 个地区的试点改革方案。( 完整原文链接 https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/202509/content_7040121.htm ) 在土地要素方 ...
产品洞察 | 房企与客户一起设计的社区长什么样?
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-14 01:43
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in the real estate industry from a "product-oriented" approach to a "user-oriented" development path, highlighting the importance of deep co-creation mechanisms with customers in product design, property services, and community operations [4]. Group 1: Design and Co-Creation - Traditional residential products limited buyers to a few options, but the co-creation model allows customers to become co-creators of the product [6]. - The case of China Merchants Shekou's Nantong Heyuan illustrates this innovation, where future homeowners were invited to participate in discussions about their ideal homes from the land acquisition stage [6][7]. - The co-creation process encompasses various dimensions, including architectural style, landscape design, public spaces, and interior decoration, allowing homeowners to select styles that harmonize with the surrounding environment [7][11]. Group 2: Service Quality and Community Engagement - Service quality and innovation are crucial for measuring a real estate company's competitiveness, as seen in Greentown's customer relationship co-creation system, which focuses on customer needs through continuous communication [14]. - Greentown's initiative in Wenzhou, where homeowners participated in community tree-planting activities, not only beautified the environment but also fostered emotional connections among residents [14][16]. - The establishment of community agreements through homeowner discussions enhances mutual understanding and respect among residents, while community operations empower homeowners to take the lead in organizing activities, increasing their sense of belonging [18]. Group 3: Sustainable Competitive Advantage - The co-creation mechanism from design to service not only enhances the value of residential products but also builds new customer relationships, providing real estate companies with sustainable competitive advantages [21].
产品洞察 | 头部房企新玩法:联手大IP,用架空层撬动业主黏性与社区溢价
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-13 01:55
克而瑞产品测评 . 聚焦房地产产品、交付研究及产品力、交付力测评 当住宅开发从"空间制造"转向"场景营造",架空层这片曾被遗忘的灰色地带,正被头部房企打造成 品牌联名的高质感泛会所。 文/产品力研究中心 随着消费者从"有房住"向"住好房"需求转变,社区价值正经历一场深刻变革。物理配套的完备性已是基础 门槛,而生活品质的放大器效应逐渐成为高端住宅产品的核心竞争力。这种转变驱动着开发商重新审视社 区空间的价值潜力,尤其聚焦于长期被忽视的架空层区域。 通过深度联名知名文化品牌与生活方式IP,一批标杆项目将架空层转型为主题泛会所空间,构建起自生长 的社区情感生态系统。业主最终收获的已不再是孤立的功能盒子,而是深度融合互动的生活方式解决方 案。 品牌联名将传统社区配套升级为策展型生活平台 01 以下文章来源于克而瑞产品测评 ,作者产品力研究中心 成都新希望D23风华项目通过深度品牌联名合作,在3、4号楼架空层打造了集社交、文化与休闲于一体的 超级泛会所体系,成为成都高端社区场景创新的标杆案例。该项目与本土及国际知名品牌携手,以专业运 营能力为业主构建了多元化的生活场景。 萃坊STILLFUN威士忌行政酒廊 , 作为成都 ...
每周精读 | 8月南京71%刚需小区降价;二手房刚需发力,京沪深小面积低总价成交占比持增(9.08-9.12)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-13 01:55
Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures in cities like Nanjing, where 71% of newly built communities saw price reductions in August [5] - The report highlights the increasing transaction volume in the auctioned property market, indicating a potential recovery phase for the industry [7] - It notes a rebound in land auction activity, with significant price increases in certain areas, suggesting a renewed interest in land acquisition despite previous declines [8] Market Trends - Nanjing's housing prices are under pressure due to high inventory and land supply, leading to a deep adjustment period for second-hand homes [5] - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, there is a growing trend of small-sized, low-total-price transactions, particularly among first-time buyers [5] - The auction market for distressed properties reached a new high in August, with luxury properties in Shenzhen selling at an 80% premium, indicating strong demand in this segment [7] Land Supply and Auction Activity - The land auction market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in average premium rates to 6.4%, up by 4.1 percentage points [8] - The total land supply and transaction volume in key cities have decreased significantly, with a 45% drop in supply and a 41% drop in transaction volume compared to the previous week [8] Policy Support - Local governments are implementing measures to boost demand, including optimizing housing fund policies and enhancing tax benefits, particularly in Shenzhen [9] - The article emphasizes the importance of these policies in stabilizing the market and supporting homebuyers [9] Company Performance - China Merchants Shekou reported a net profit margin of 3.38%, with a decrease in retained earnings due to perpetual bond impacts [13] - Gemdale Group is facing sales and profit pressures, necessitating a focus on restoring operational momentum [14] - New Town Holdings has achieved a sales collection rate of 115.05%, with its commercial sector acting as a stabilizing profit source [15] - Shoukai Co. has seen a narrowing of losses and improved gross margins, supported by low-cost financing [16]
房价异动 | 8月南京71%刚需小区降价,二手房进入深度调整期
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-12 09:22
Core Viewpoint - The Nanjing real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with both new and second-hand housing transactions declining, leading to a notable increase in the proportion of price reductions across various neighborhoods [2][4][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - In August, the Nanjing market saw a continued decline in new home transactions, with six low-density residential plots sold at base prices [2]. - The number of high-frequency trading neighborhoods decreased for several consecutive months, with only 192 neighborhoods recorded in August, a 58% drop compared to the same period last year [4]. - The overall transaction volume for second-hand homes was only 6,300 units in August, indicating a significant contraction in market activity [4]. Group 2: Price Trends - A striking 68% of high-frequency trading neighborhoods experienced a month-on-month price decline, marking an 11 percentage point increase from the previous month and the second-highest level this year [4][11]. - The average listing price for second-hand homes in Nanjing dropped by 10.3% year-on-year as of August 2025, with 77% of high-frequency trading neighborhoods seeing a price reduction [11]. Group 3: Segment Analysis - Among different property types, 71% of affordable housing neighborhoods and 65% of improvement-type neighborhoods saw price declines, while high-end neighborhoods had a more balanced price change with 50% experiencing declines [13]. - In August, the majority of neighborhoods in key trading areas, such as Hexi North and Xianlin Lake, reported price drops exceeding 80% [15]. Group 4: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Nanjing's narrow inventory digestion cycle is under 20 months, but the broader inventory digestion cycle is nearing 10 years, indicating a significant amount of "dead inventory" in the market [21]. - The ongoing high supply of land is contributing to the downward pressure on housing prices, as many previously desirable low-density residential plots are now being sold at base prices [21]. Group 5: Recommendations for Market Stabilization - To stabilize the market, it is recommended that authorities focus on supporting key trading areas and optimizing supply-side measures to restore confidence in supply and demand [22]. - A dynamic balance mechanism should be established to link land supply with broader inventory levels, aiming to improve market expectations and inventory structure [22].
代建双周报 | 建发更新建设代建8所学校投入使用,旭辉建管中标成都国资全过程代建项目(2025.8.30-9.12)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-12 09:22
Company Highlights - Guomao Real Estate received recognition for eight projects as municipal excellent engineering in August [1] - Longfor achieved business innovation and boundary expansion in its agency construction services [1] - Greentown China reported agency sales of 60.6 billion RMB for the first eight months [6] - Hopson Development recorded agency sales of 4.236 billion RMB for the first eight months of 2025 [7] Project Developments - Runze Management consortium won the bid for a public rental housing project in Dongguan city center [1] - Jianfa updated its agency construction with eight schools ready for the new school season [1] - Qishan Yayuan and eight other projects received excellent engineering quality ratings; Xiamen No. 1 High School's TQ campus and Siming campus were officially inaugurated [1] - The Wutong resettlement housing project obtained a construction permit and has officially entered the construction phase [1] Project Acquisition - Longfor's Kunshan Baima Jing project marks its third project in Kunshan, providing brand and green building technology services [1] - The project covers an area of approximately 19,463 square meters with a total construction area of about 84,483 square meters, planning to build 510 public rental housing units [1] Market Expansion - Greentown Management expanded its managed area by 13.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year [10] - CIFI Construction Management has entered over 80 cities [10] - New City Construction Management successfully signed seven projects in July [10]
中报点评|首开股份:业绩亏损收窄,毛利率改善,新增低成本融资发行印证国企信用
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-11 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The company has shown significant recovery in revenue and gross margin in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with a narrowing of net losses and a reduction in inventory value [1][3][4]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total sales of 11.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, with sales area down by 2% to 720,000 square meters [2][5]. - The average sales price dropped to 15,833 yuan per square meter, while cash received from sales reached 15.5 billion yuan, up 25.8% year-on-year [5][22]. - The company has made progress in liquidating non-residential assets, achieving sales of 2.5 billion yuan from commercial and parking space [2][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 18 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 105% increase year-on-year, with gross profit rising 168% to 2.23 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 12.39%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points [3][17]. - Despite a net loss of 1.436 billion yuan, the loss has narrowed compared to previous periods, indicating improved operational efficiency [3][18]. Inventory Management - The company's inventory value stood at 96.9 billion yuan, down 11% from the beginning of the year, with a focus on accelerating the disposal of underperforming residential projects and non-core assets [11][12]. - The structure of inventory has shifted, with the balance of development products increasing by 3% [12][13]. Financing and Debt Management - The company received 1.5 billion yuan in new liquidity support from its parent group and successfully issued multiple bonds and medium-term notes at low interest rates [20][21]. - Cash flow from financing activities showed a net outflow of 10 billion yuan, primarily due to efforts to reduce leverage, with total interest-bearing debt at 104.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 6% from the beginning of the year [4][22]. Property Management and Diversification - The company is actively developing its property management segment, with a focus on optimizing operations and enhancing brand presence in commercial spaces [26][27]. - In the long-term rental market, the company has established its own brand "Shoukai Leshang," with a current occupancy rate of 93% across 11 properties [28].
法拍房月报|8月成交量再创年内新高,深圳顶豪大平层溢价80%成交(2025年8月)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-11 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The foreclosure housing market is an important "leakage" link in the residential rights flow chain and will continue to benefit from the industry's stabilization process, providing more support for the establishment of new development models in the industry [1][6]. Supply and Transaction Volume - In August 2025, the supply of foreclosure properties decreased to 32,000 units, still the second highest this year, while transaction volume reached 5,466 units, marking an 11% month-on-month increase and a new high for the year [3][4]. - The average starting price for the properties listed was 32.4 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 27% month-on-month [8][12]. - The competitive bidding heat increased, with 7% of the sold properties receiving over 100 bids, indicating rising buyer interest [4][3]. Market Trends and Outlook - The continuous increase in transaction volume for two consecutive months is attributed to the ongoing implementation of market stabilization policies, which have gradually restored market confidence [4][6]. - The proportion of properties sold at or above the starting price has decreased to 29%, the lowest since Q2, indicating a shift in buyer behavior towards more competitive bidding [4][6]. High-Value Listings - The market saw several high-value listings, including a five-star hotel in Hangzhou with a starting price of 257 million yuan, which reflects the growing interest from intermediaries and asset management firms in the foreclosure market [5][13]. - Notably, 18 properties had starting prices exceeding 100 million yuan, indicating a trend towards higher-value assets entering the market [5]. Transaction Rate and Buyer Behavior - The national average transaction rate for foreclosure properties was 21%, slightly down from the previous month but still at a high level for the year [24][26]. - The average discount rate for sold properties was 32.2%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points, while the average starting discount rate was 28.8%, indicating a narrowing gap between supply and demand perceptions [28][29]. Conclusion - The foreclosure housing market is evolving with increasing buyer interest and a shift towards higher-value properties, supported by favorable market policies and changing buyer behavior, which may lead to a more stable and dynamic market environment in the future [1][6][4].
二手结构 | 8月刚需发力,京沪深小面积低总价成交占比持增
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-10 09:44
Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to see a surge in transactions as September coincides with the end of the quarter, despite a general decline in transaction volume since Q3 2025. The market remains in a high-level oscillation phase, with low-priced, essential demand driving sales, while high-end luxury transactions stabilize [1][15]. Transaction Volume and Trends - In August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions in 30 key cities was 9%, significantly outperforming new housing transactions, which showed a decline [2][15]. - The proportion of transactions under 2 million yuan in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has increased year-on-year, indicating that essential buyers remain the primary force in the market [3][15]. Price Segmentation - The share of transactions in the low total price segment (under 2 million yuan) has increased, with Shanghai seeing 43.78% of transactions in this category, up 6.45% year-on-year. In contrast, the mid-range segment (3-6 million yuan) has seen a decline in transaction share, reflecting increased buyer hesitation [3][4][15]. - High-end demand remains stable, with luxury properties (over 50 million yuan) in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintaining their market share, while Hangzhou's mid-range (8-30 million yuan) transactions have increased [4][15]. Area and Size Distribution - The majority of transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are concentrated in small-sized properties (under 90 square meters), which account for over 60% of total transactions. This trend is driven by a strategy of "price for volume" as sellers aim to move inventory quickly [8][15]. - In Hangzhou, there has been a notable increase in transactions for medium to large-sized properties (100-180 square meters), catering to buyers looking for more functional living spaces [8][15]. Regional Concentration - The transaction concentration in key districts of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has increased, with notable growth in areas like Beijing's Chaoyang and Shanghai's Yangpu districts. However, the overall concentration in major districts is decreasing, indicating a shift towards suburban and core urban areas [12][15]. Market Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to continue its high-level oscillation, with price-driven demand from essential buyers. The market's transition to a buyer's market suggests that buyers will prioritize location, amenities, and price when making purchasing decisions, potentially extending the transaction cycle for less desirable properties [15].