以下文章来源于混沌天成研究 ，作者有色组 混沌天成研究 . 混沌天成研究院官方公众号。基于混沌天成的地方触角和国际化架构，我们致力于打造一家草根信息与高科技结合，中国国情和国际视野兼备的商品 期货和全球宏观研究院。 来源 | 混沌天成研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点概述： 美对等关税政策后，基本金属回吐近一年涨幅，特朗普暂缓90天实施给出谈判态势后，市场开始交易冲击后的修复，现工业金属已反弹至起跌 位置，在新一轮重新定价的时候，我们梳理了工业金属的供需质地以及现阶段衍生出的交易机会。 从供需质地来看，供应端受限，终端需求质地好（光伏、新能源汽车等占比高）的品种（铜、铝、锡）价格表现会更好，供应端恢复，终端需 求难有增量（房地产占比高）的品种会偏弱（锌），供应过剩品种则一直处于下行趋势下（碳酸锂、镍和 氧化铝 ）。 对于自身矛盾足够突出，供需过剩的品种，如不能扭转过剩的格局，给出空间就是做空的进场点，我们选择 碳酸锂 和氧化铝作为表达标的。对 于供需偏紧的品种，目前处于弱预期修复，强现实未走弱的阶段，继续上行需要更多的利好，但暂时很难看到，反而终端需求出现了下行的迹 象，我们选择锌和铝作为等待 ...

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以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 以色列开启斩首行动，地缘事件通过影响供给预期传导至油价，刺激油价上行。现在，全球从 俄乌到印巴再到伊以，地缘冲突不断，复杂多变。原油作为大宗商品之王，影响着全球资产价 格和通胀的变化。当然，如果供给冲击落空，油价上涨过后仍将调整。 2025年原油市场的剧烈波动与特朗普的政策操作密不可分，地缘施压&OPEC影响油价走势， 今年的年度最佳宏观分析师将再次颁给特朗普一点也不过分。 原油价格的剧烈波动，对散户并不友好，清明节后跌停，今天接近涨停，这会导致投机者损失 惨重。要避免此类事件冲击，需从风险识别、策略优化、工具运用三方面构建系统性防御体 系。 隔夜以色列开启斩首行动，伊以冲突升级，黄金与原油大涨，相比之下原油表现更加激动， SC原油主力合约早盘涨停，空头极度恐慌。本轮原油大涨主要驱动是地缘风险抬升叠加前期 空头过度集中。 2025年6月13日，以色列发动 "雄狮崛起" 行动，空袭伊朗首都德黑兰的 IRGC总部，目标 直指伊朗核计划及军事领导人。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令侯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions have revised down their global economic growth forecasts for 2025, which impacts demand for commodities, particularly industrial products like oil and copper [3][10][12]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [10]. - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also adjusted its forecasts, predicting a growth rate of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [11]. - The World Bank has reduced its 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating that nearly 70% of economies have seen their growth rates downgraded [12][13]. Group 2: Commodity Demand Analysis - The divergence in consumption growth rates for oil and copper is significant, with oil showing a consumption divergence of 0.8% compared to copper's 1.3% [24]. - Current forecasts suggest that copper consumption growth could range from 0.6% to 2.5% depending on the institution, indicating a substantial disagreement among forecasts [19][22]. - For oil, the consumption growth forecasts range from -0.6% to 1.2%, reflecting a similar level of uncertainty [23][27]. Group 3: Price and Trading Dynamics - Copper prices remain relatively high, while oil prices are at a low point, indicating a significant disparity in market conditions [4][26]. - The copper-to-oil ratio is currently around 146, which is historically high, suggesting that copper may be overvalued compared to oil [29]. - The market is currently experiencing low volatility, with traders awaiting a clearer direction for both commodities [28]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical instances of extreme copper-to-oil ratios have been linked to supply disruptions and significant demand changes, which are not currently present [39][40]. - The analysis suggests that the extreme copper-to-oil ratio may correct towards the 2020 average of 120, as current market conditions do not support sustained high ratios [43].

Group 1 - The metal market has shown significant divergence since the beginning of 2025, with gold rising due to a weaker dollar and risk aversion, while silver has recently shown a rebound, and copper and aluminum prices remain resilient. In contrast, domestically priced new energy products and the black metal sector have seen a decline of over 10% [5][19]. - The gold-to-copper ratio is a crucial indicator of the relative value between gold and copper, reflecting changes in global economic cycles, inflation expectations, and risk appetite. Gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset, while copper represents risk assets, serving as a barometer for global economic conditions [7][19]. - Historical trends show that during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, the gold-to-copper ratio surged due to falling copper prices and stable gold prices. When inflation rises and market risk appetite increases, the ratio tends to decrease, as seen in 2021 during economic recovery [20][21]. Group 2 - Since 2021, the annual average price of copper has continued to rise, maintaining above 77,000 yuan per ton in 2025, indicating a strong fundamental backdrop for non-ferrous metals. The relatively low inventory levels of copper and aluminum reflect this strength, contributing to price resilience [22]. - The current gold-to-silver ratio exceeds 90, suggesting that silver remains undervalued relative to gold, indicating potential investment opportunities in silver [3][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Hong Hao is that the relationship between China and the United States resembles a couple going through a divorce, where both parties will have to deal with the consequences and negotiate the division of assets in the future [4][14]. - Hong Hao emphasizes that China is better prepared for the current trade war compared to previous instances, and this preparation has united the Chinese people, who are known for their resilience and ability to endure hardships [4][17]. - The trade negotiations are influenced by the fact that while Chinese consumers are ready to endure challenges, American consumers desire affordable goods, creating a foundation for negotiations [5][17]. Group 2 - Hong Hao predicts that the US dollar will continue to weaken in the coming years, and the previously unfavorable situation for the Chinese yuan may be changing [7][22]. - Despite stable growth and exports in China, the consumption sector remains below expectations and has not yet recovered, while the real estate sector continues to face challenges [8][21]. - The Chinese economy is primarily investment-driven rather than consumption-driven, and achieving economic rebalancing cannot rely solely on China's efforts; it requires a global approach involving both China and the US [9][10][29]. Group 3 - The current trade war is characterized by China's preparedness, which is significantly better than in previous conflicts, leading to a more favorable outcome for China than anticipated [19][21]. - The World Bank has downgraded growth forecasts for 70% of global economies, but China's growth forecast remains unchanged, indicating a relative strength in its economic performance [20][21]. - The need for global economic rebalancing is highlighted, with both China and the US needing to adjust their consumption and production patterns to achieve a more balanced economic structure [27][29].

Group 1: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a seasonal demand window, with daily consumption at 4.85 million tons as of June 5, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.5% [1] - The inventory available for use is at 24.4 days, down by 1.6 days week-on-week, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is at 609 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.3% [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a weak peak season due to increased rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, which could enhance hydropower output [1][12] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism meeting from June 8 to 13 is crucial for assessing future trade dynamics, particularly regarding the 10% baseline tariff and semiconductor export restrictions [2][8] - The sensitivity of the commodity market to these discussions is high, especially for shipping and crude oil sectors [2][8] - The potential for a thaw in U.S.-China relations could lead to a rebound in previously declining commodities such as energy and chemicals [8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9][10] - Wage growth is at 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer strength, but the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to downward revisions of previous employment data [9][10] - The interplay between rising import prices and wage growth may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility, impacting both equity and commodity markets [10][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is witnessing independent pricing dynamics, with pork prices exceeding 14 RMB/kg and Brazilian soybean prices rebounding [3][16] - The soybean market is currently in a critical growth season, with no immediate weather threats in the U.S. Midwest, suggesting limited upward pressure on prices [16] - The recent performance of soybean meal is driven by rising CNF prices from Brazil, supported by speculative buying from domestic oil mills [16] Group 5: Precious Metals - Silver is positioned for potential gains due to its dual industrial and monetary attributes, with supply constraints and demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [3] - The gold-silver ratio may continue to improve, but fiscal risks remain unresolved, keeping gold as a primary safe haven [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices is driven by improved trade relations between two countries and a sharp recovery in coking coal prices, which has exceeded market expectations. The sustainability of this price increase needs to be evaluated based on marginal changes in the market [1]. Group 1: Mongolian Coal Supply Changes - The dismissal of Mongolia's Prime Minister has raised concerns about potential changes in coal export policies, with some market participants anticipating a 20% increase in coal export resource tax [2]. - Currently, there are no adjustments to Mongolia's coal policies, but the supply of Mongolian coal is expected to decrease due to the high cost of coal and recent price drops [2][4]. Group 2: Domestic Coking Coal Supply - Domestic coking coal supply remains high, but there has been a slight reduction in production due to some major mines cutting output and minor private mines reducing production due to losses [5][6]. - The average profitability of coking coal mines is under pressure, with some mines nearing breakeven points, indicating that significant supply reductions may require further price declines [6][8]. Group 3: Demand Observations - Despite concerns about seasonal declines in steel demand, iron output remains high at around 2.4 million tons per day, supporting strong procurement of raw materials [9][10]. - The price of thermal coal has stabilized around 619 RMB/ton, with significant year-to-date declines, which may provide some support for coking coal valuations as the consumption season approaches [11]. Group 4: Coking Coal Market Summary - The overall trend indicates that while demand for coking coal may have peaked, supply reductions are marginal and primarily driven by low valuations. The recent price surge is seen as a correction rather than a reversal signal [12].

以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 历史不会重复，但是它自然成韵。 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期沪银期货价格创上市以来新高，国际白银ETF连续增仓的情况下，欧美降息预期抬升、叠加宏观市场情绪转暖预期提振白银工业 属性，沪银表现强于黄金、金银比小幅修复。 此前黄金屡创新高，白银被低估，金银比一度逼近105（历史均值60-80），随着避险情绪升温，白银成为"价值洼地"，资金涌入推动 其补涨，金银比回落至90。全球最大白银ETF持仓量持续增加，CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）净多头持仓攀升，显示出资金对 白银强烈的看涨情绪。 2025年全球货币体系发生深刻变化，美元霸权遭遇挑战。特朗普政府的一系列政策，如强推制造业回流、关税壁垒等，导致全球美元 回流美国，美元流动性减少，且面临 "特里芬难题" 升级版，即美联储在加息抑制通胀与降息刺激经济维持贸易逆差之间两难抉择， 这削弱了美元信用。 投资者对美元信心下降，转而寻求其他避险资产，白银作为传统的避险资产之一，受到投资者青睐。全球政治经济不确定性增加，如 地缘政治冲突、贸易政策不稳定等， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the United States, suggesting it is in the "fifth stage" of a cycle that could lead to internal conflict or civil war, emphasizing the importance of recognizing and addressing underlying issues before they escalate [1][3][8]. Summary by Sections Current Situation - The article highlights the increasing unrest in Los Angeles and the government's response, including the deployment of the National Guard, as indicative of deeper systemic issues [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the U.S. is at a critical juncture, where financial deterioration is leading to class conflict, marking the "pre-civil war" phase [3][4]. Key Principles - The article outlines that successful nations adapt and self-repair during cycles, and the key question is how much pressure the current system can withstand without collapsing [3][4]. - It warns that the late fifth stage often leads to violent conflict, transitioning into the sixth stage, which is characterized as the "civil war phase" [3][4]. Toxic Combinations - The article identifies a "toxic combination" of factors that can lead to significant internal conflict, including financial distress, social inequality, and severe economic shocks [10][12]. - It notes that these factors often coexist and exacerbate each other, increasing the likelihood of severe conflict [10][12]. Historical Context - The author draws on historical patterns, suggesting that the current dynamics mirror past cycles of civil unrest and revolution, where financial instability and social division were prevalent [7][8][9]. - The article stresses that the loss of credibility in traditional and social media has reached unprecedented levels, further complicating the public's ability to discern truth [25][26]. Solutions and Leadership - The article advocates for strong, peaceful reformers who can unite society and implement effective reforms to avoid catastrophic collapse [5][34]. - It emphasizes the need for leaders who can bridge divides and promote equitable wealth distribution to maintain social cohesion [5][34]. Conclusion - The article concludes that understanding the current phase in the cycle is crucial for navigating potential crises, and that proactive measures are necessary to foster a more equitable and stable society [46][47].