日本银行总裁植田和男在12月1日的演讲中强烈暗示12月18～19日的金融政策决定会议可能 加息，但日元汇率却反应迟钝，汇率为1美元兑155.5日元至155.9日元，反而进一步走 弱…… 在日本银行（央行）加息概率急剧上升的情况下，日元买盘却缺乏势头。市场预期的12月加 息概率已上升至80%，但与加息概率为30%左右的11月中旬相比，日元汇率水平基本持平。 政策利率上限是否为1%？市场看清日本银行加息"极限"，这一局面与投机资金大举抛售日元 的2024年夏季十分相似。 "将对是否加息做出恰当判断"，日本银行总裁植田和男在12月1日的演讲中如此表示，强烈暗 示12月18～19日的金融政策决定会议可能加息。受这番言论的推动，日本银行加息概率急剧 上升，隔夜指数掉期利率（OIS）市场预期的12月加息概率在1日下午达到80%。 尽管如此，日元汇率却反应迟钝。11月18日的加息概率为近期最低的28%，当天的汇率在1 美元兑155日元关口附近，而12月2日的汇率为1美元兑155.5日元至155.9日元，日元反而进 一步走弱。 三井住友银行市场营业部外汇交易组组长纳谷巧指出："市场猜测，即便加息一次，后续也很 难再加息，这样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Taiwanese subsidiary of Tokyo Electron has been indicted for its involvement in the theft of trade secrets from TSMC, with prosecutors seeking a fine of 120 million New Taiwan Dollars [2][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - The Taiwanese prosecution has charged Tokyo Electron's subsidiary with violating multiple laws, including the Trade Secrets Act and the National Security Act, marking the first time a corporate entity has been prosecuted under national security laws for technology leakage in Taiwan [4]. - In August, three former TSMC employees were indicted for illegally using TSMC's trade secrets outside Taiwan, specifically related to the development of advanced 2-nanometer semiconductor technology [4]. Group 2: Company Responsibility - Investigations revealed that one of the indicted former TSMC employees joined Tokyo Electron's Taiwanese subsidiary and attempted to use TSMC's trade secrets in optimizing the performance of next-generation semiconductor equipment [5]. - The prosecution determined that Tokyo Electron failed to implement adequate measures to protect trade secrets, indicating a lack of effort in preventing information leaks, and thus holds the company criminally responsible [5]. - Tokyo Electron has stated that it is verifying the details of the announcement from Taiwanese authorities and previously claimed that no organized wrongdoing was found following the indictment of the former employees [5].

Core Viewpoint - BYD is leading the global market in plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHV), with its model "Sea Lion 6" being the top-selling SUV in this category, priced competitively in Japan [2][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the global PHV sales from January to October, BYD accounted for approximately 30% of the total 6.25 million units sold [9]. - The "Sea Lion 6" is priced at 3,982,000 yen (approximately 180,900 RMB), making it one of the most affordable options in the Japanese market for plug-in hybrid SUVs [5][6]. - BYD's sales in Japan increased by 64% year-on-year, reaching 3,298 units, although it still trails behind competitors like Mercedes-Benz and Tesla [12]. Group 2: Product Features - The "Sea Lion 6" offers a fuel efficiency of 22.4 km/L, outperforming competitors such as Mitsubishi's "Outlander PHEV" and Toyota's "Harrier" [5][12]. - The vehicle has been designed with enhanced passenger comfort in mind, incorporating feedback from Japanese consumers regarding rear seat comfort and vibration [10]. - It includes advanced driver assistance features, such as three millimeter-wave radars and a high-resolution camera for obstacle detection [12]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - BYD aims to activate the electric vehicle market globally through its competitive EV and PHV offerings, marking its first entry into the PHV segment in Japan [4][9]. - The company is increasing its export ratio of PHVs to Europe, where these vehicles are not subject to additional tariffs imposed on Chinese EVs [13]. - Success in the Japanese market, particularly with PHVs, is crucial for BYD to enhance its presence and compete effectively against established brands [13].

AI当场分析传感器收集的数据并反映在现实动作中的"物理AI"正在普及，机器人有望理解周 围环境，自主行动或进行细致的工作，发那科与英伟达将在这一领域展开合作…… 世界最大的工业机器人企业发那科12月1日宣布，将与美国半导体巨头英伟达展开合作。将在 工厂用机器人上搭载人工智能（AI），使机器人可以在理解人类语言的基础上工作。在AI自主 控制机器人和机械的"物理AI"迅速改变竞争环境的情况下，发那科与AI半导体的王者联手， 争取从防御转为攻势。 发那科1日在东京都内召开的技术发布会上宣布了上述消息。借助英伟达的嵌入式计算系统， 机器人可以理解人类的指示，做出适当的动作。将在虚拟空间中的工厂推进AI学习，使"聪明 的机器人"能够更快地部署到现实工厂。 将支持开源，使全球的开发人员能够开发和使用驱动机器人的程序。发那科社长兼首席执行 官（CEO）山口贤治表示，"将（在机器人上）搭载全世界的智慧"。 在物理AI方面，软银集团（SBG）10月宣布，以53.75亿美元收购瑞士工业巨头ABB的机器 人业务。软银集团会长兼社长孙正义表示，"将（超越人类智能的）超级人工智能（ASI）与 机器人技术相结合，不断实现开创人类未来的划 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, which initially strengthened the yen against the dollar, but the impact was short-lived as the yen fell back to the 155 yen range shortly after [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Ueda stated that a "proper judgment" regarding a potential interest rate hike would be made at the monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, while emphasizing that even if rates are increased, the overall monetary policy would remain accommodative [4]. - The statements from Ueda suggest an increased likelihood of a rate hike in December and indicate that there is still room for future increases, reflecting a careful communication strategy with the current government [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - Despite the hints of a rate hike, Ueda's comments did not provide any clues about the pace of potential increases, leading to concerns about the Bank of Japan falling into a "policy lag" where actions do not keep pace with economic developments [5]. - The rising concerns among the Japanese public regarding inflation and the increasing "expected inflation rate" complicate the decision to maintain an accommodative stance [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Issues and Currency Impact - Japan's fiscal problems continue to weigh on the yen's depreciation, with HSBC noting that changes in the Japanese government bond yield curve have significantly impacted the exchange rate [6]. - The yield spread between newly issued 2-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds has widened from approximately 2.20% to about 2.39%, indicating increased fiscal risk [6]. - If the Bank of Japan signals a commitment to policy normalization after a rate hike, it could lead to higher medium-term bond yields, exacerbating the government's interest burden [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's new automobile tariffs on the shipping industry, particularly Japanese shipping companies, and highlights a shift towards China as a potential market due to uncertainties in U.S. port fees and trade policies [2][5]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Impact - The U.S. began imposing a port fee of $46 per ton on foreign-made automobile transport ships starting October 14, which significantly affects Japanese shipping companies operating many such vessels [5]. - Following a U.S.-China summit on October 30, the U.S. decided to suspend the collection of this port fee for one year, but the risk of its future reinstatement remains [2][5]. Group 2: Japanese Shipping Industry Response - Japanese shipping companies, including Nippon Yusen and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, operate 127 automobile transport ships, accounting for over 40% of the global fleet, with this segment contributing 20-50% to their consolidated sales [5]. - Due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies, the shipping industry is exploring opportunities in China, which is seeing a rise in automobile exports, particularly in electric and hybrid vehicles [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), China's automobile exports are projected to reach 5.85 million units in 2024, a 19% year-on-year increase, driven by the growth of new energy vehicles [6]. - While some Japanese shipping companies are cautious and focus on existing contracts, they are also looking to capture new market demands, such as exports from India to Africa and the Middle East [6].

Core Insights - Huawei's GPU-related patent applications have increased tenfold over the past five years, surpassing those of NVIDIA and Intel, indicating a strong focus on AI technology development [4] - The company is also advancing its semiconductor manufacturing technology, targeting processes beyond 2nm [4] Group 1 - Huawei's significant increase in GPU patent applications reflects its commitment to artificial intelligence [4] - The growth in patent filings positions Huawei as a leader in the GPU space, outpacing major competitors [4] - The strategic focus on advanced semiconductor processes suggests a long-term vision for technological leadership in AI and related fields [4]

日经GO 东京都住宿税将改为按3%税率征收，金额无上限 原创 阅读全文 ...

谷歌自主设计并用于自身AI开发的半导体"TPU（张量处理单元，Tensor Processing Unit）"的推广也做出贡献。10月23日，谷歌宣布将向涉足AI开发的美国新兴公司Anthropic 提供产品。11月下旬，有消息称Meta正在考虑将其应用于数据中心。 据称与几乎垄断市场的英伟达GPU相比，TPU的成本更低，因此抢夺市场份额的预期加强。 美国摩根士丹利推算，如果TPU的销量增加50万个，将把Alphabet的2027年每股收益 （EPS）推高3%左右。 （Reuters） 谷歌11月18日发布了生成式AI的最新大语言模型（LLM）"Gemini 3"。新模型之一"Gemini 3 Pro"在比拼LLM性能的主要指标上居首，成为ChatGPT的强有力竞争对手。 人工智能（AI）行情正在发生异变。以曾经拉动行情的美国英伟达为中心，很多股票价格下 跌。另一方面，旗下拥有谷歌的Alphabet股价明显上涨。这是因为谷歌11月发表的生成式AI 基础模型受到了高度评价。市场嗅到了一直领先的美国OpenAI的ChatGPT的优势地位发生动 摇的可能性。 Alphabet股票11月上涨14%。总市值接近4万亿美 ...

由于铜价高涨以及对铜电缆的影响，出现了电缆改用铝制倾向。从LME三个月期货价格来 看，铝为每吨2850至2890美元，仅为铜的四分之一左右。虽然铝的导电性比不上铜，但可通 过加粗电缆来提升性能…… (资料图) 广泛应用于各类产品的铜的日本国内价格持续高涨。国际价格保持在最高位，而且外汇市场 出现日元对美元持续贬值的趋势，日本国内铜价指标急剧攀升，创下历史最高纪录。其影响 还波及到了铜加工制品及电缆的交易价格。用铝等其他金属替代铜的声音也日益高涨。 黄铜圆棒的需求处于低迷状态。受人手短缺的影响，日本的住宅开工套数持续呈现出减少趋 势，黄铜圆棒的洽购也"看不到好转迹象"（东京的一家有色金属批发商）。 虽然建筑用途等需求低迷，但铜价却逆势上扬，在这种情况下，改用替代品的观点也越来越 普遍。 阀门制造大型企业KITZ的相关负责人认为，虽然不锈钢的耐用性优于铜，但被认为价格较 高，如今两者的价差正在缩小。同时称："建筑行业已出现考虑将黄铜改为不锈钢的动向，机 械设备用阀门也有可能不断推进替代进程"。 光伏电站等使用的电缆价格也不断高涨。围绕电缆，价格上涨引发的盗窃已成为社会问题，6 月日本出台了以强化对废金属回收商监管 ...