2025年5月17日至18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳隆重召开。作为本届论坛的重要专题之 一，主题论坛十一以"人口老龄化的机遇与挑战"为题，聚焦全球养老金融体系建设，深入探讨人口结构 变化带来的深层影响，以及政策引导与市场机制协同下的制度应对路径。 本场论坛由清华大学五道口金融学院研究员、中国保险与养老金融研究中心主任、金融MBA教育中心主 任魏晨阳主持，并以圆桌讨论的形式展开。 论坛全程以英文进行，吸引了来自不同国家和地区的专家学者积极参与。 图为会议现场 本场论坛邀请了四位海内外嘉宾参与讨论，分别是：日本央行前行长、日本青山学院大学杰出客座教 授白川方明，原中国保险监督管理委员会党委副书记、副主席周延礼，清华五道口养老金融50人论坛 秘书长、中国人民大学公共管理学院、劳动人事学院原院长董克用，以及欧洲保险业联合会前主席塞 尔吉奥·巴比诺特。四位专家围绕养老金制度改革、人口结构变化对金融体系的影响、以及应对全球 老龄化趋势的跨国经验进行了深入研讨与交流。 魏晨阳 清华大学五道口金融学院研究员 日本青山学院大学杰出客座教授 中国保险与养老金融研究中心主任 金融MBA教育中心主任 论坛伊始，主持人魏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the potential risks associated with foreign countries selling U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) in response to tariffs, emphasizing that such actions are unlikely to lead to a significant increase in T-bond yields due to various structural factors in the market [2][26]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bond Structure - The maturity structure of U.S. Treasury bonds is categorized into short-term (under 1 year), medium-term (1-10 years), and long-term (over 10 years), with short-term bonds accounting for 21.5%, medium-term for 51.8%, and long-term for 17.2% as of March 2025 [4]. - In terms of issuance, over 80% of new T-bonds issued in 2023 have been short-term, reflecting the government's strategy to manage debt costs based on interest rate conditions [4]. Group 2: Investor Composition - As of December 2024, foreign investors, including foreign institutions and central banks, hold 33.0% of U.S. Treasury bonds, followed by mutual funds at 19.3%, the Federal Reserve at 14.7%, individual investors at 10.3%, and banks at 8.6% [6]. - Among foreign investors, central banks account for approximately 43%, with Japan, the UK, and China being the largest holders [6]. Group 3: Maturity Distribution and Repayment Pressure - The maturity distribution indicates that due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the highest volume of T-bonds maturing will occur in the next 2-3 months, with a total maturity of $12 trillion from January to May 2023, compared to $11.5 trillion in the same period last year [12]. - The U.S. government primarily rolls over maturing debt, but high debt levels and interest rates could create repayment pressures, with net interest payments projected to reach 3.1% of GDP in 2024, nearing historical highs [15]. Group 4: Trading Volume and Foreign Selling Review - Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in 2022, the average daily trading volume of T-bonds has increased significantly, reaching $1.36 trillion, although the turnover rate has not increased proportionately [17]. - Historical analysis shows that while China has reduced its T-bond holdings from a peak of $1.3 trillion to under $800 billion by March 2025, Japan has experienced periods of reduction but overall maintains a rising trend in T-bond holdings [23][24]. Group 5: Conclusion on Foreign Selling Impact - The article concludes that foreign selling of U.S. Treasury bonds is unlikely to cause significant yield increases due to the large market size, the limited speed of potential selling, and the historical resilience of T-bond yields to foreign selling actions [26]. - Key factors include the improbability of a prolonged government shutdown due to debt ceiling issues, the active trading environment of T-bonds, and the limited alternatives for foreign reserves [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy measures introduced by multiple Chinese government departments to enhance the technology finance system, aiming to support high-level technological self-reliance and innovation in the country. Group 1: Policy Measures Overview - The policy measures focus on seven areas including venture capital, monetary credit, capital markets, technology insurance, and bond markets, proposing 15 specific initiatives to upgrade existing policies and introduce new ones [2][5]. - Establishment of a "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" to encourage early, small, long-term investments in hard technology, enhancing the fundraising and exit channels for venture capital [2][3]. - Utilization of structural monetary policy tools to guide financial institutions in increasing credit support for technology enterprises, particularly for private SMEs [3][4]. Group 2: Capital Market Initiatives - The capital market will play a crucial role in supporting direct financing for technology enterprises, with the introduction of a "green channel" for capital market access and the establishment of a "technology board" in the bond market [4][17]. - The bond market "technology board" will facilitate flexible bond issuance and reduce costs for equity investment institutions, which are vital for early-stage investments in hard technology [17][19]. Group 3: Implementation Expectations - The policy aims to simultaneously address supply and demand sides, focusing on financing needs in key technology innovation areas [8][10]. - Emphasis on a systematic approach to release policy "combinatorial dividends" and promote collaborative development among various stakeholders [8][14]. - Establishment of a long-term financial support mechanism for technology innovation and addressing the financing challenges faced by technology SMEs [9][11]. Group 4: Innovation Scoring System - Introduction of an "Innovation Scoring System" to convert innovation data into financial metrics familiar to financial institutions, enhancing the ability to assess technology enterprises [12][13]. - Plans to optimize the core indicators of the scoring system and expand its application in various financial services [13]. Group 5: Regional Focus and Collaboration - The policy encourages regional collaboration, particularly in key innovation centers like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, to pilot technology finance initiatives [15][14]. - Local governments and financial institutions are urged to explore unique practices that can be replicated and promoted [15]. Group 6: Financial Ecosystem Development - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to build a supportive financial ecosystem for technology innovation, enhancing collaboration among banks, insurance, and securities institutions [21][22]. - Continuous improvement of the regulatory environment for technology enterprises, ensuring that fundraising is secure and used appropriately [29][30]. Group 7: Technology Insurance Role - Technology insurance is highlighted as a stabilizing factor for innovation, with measures to enhance compensation mechanisms and support for major technology tasks [36][38]. - The establishment of a risk-sharing mechanism for significant technology projects aims to provide comprehensive risk protection for technology enterprises [38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the RMB exchange rate, suggesting that despite the intensification of tariffs in the Trump 2.0 era, the RMB has not depreciated as expected, indicating a potential for two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate [1][2]. Tariff Impact on RMB Exchange Rate - During Trump's first term (Trump 1.0), tariffs imposed from 2018 to 2019 caused the RMB to depreciate from 6.28 to around 7.10 against the USD, with a decline of over 10% in both the onshore and offshore markets [2][4]. - In the Trump 2.0 era, tariffs have escalated to a maximum of 145%, leading to a near halt in US-China trade, yet the overall impact on the RMB has been limited [2][4]. Recent Developments - As of April 18, 2025, the onshore RMB midpoint and spot rates have only decreased by 0.07% and 0.26% respectively since the beginning of the year, while the offshore RMB (CNH) has actually increased by 0.46% [4]. - The RMB strengthened in the first quarter of 2025, with the onshore midpoint, spot rate, and CNH rising by 0.14%, 0.65%, and 0.99% respectively, attributed to several factors including lower-than-expected tariffs and positive market sentiment towards Chinese assets [5]. Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Following the announcement of the third round of tariffs in April 2025, the RMB experienced a decline, with the onshore midpoint and spot rates dropping to new lows since September 2023 [7]. - The aggressive tariff policies have led to a significant depreciation of the USD, with the dollar index falling below 100, which has helped stabilize the RMB [8]. Economic and Policy Divergence - The article highlights that the divergence in economic cycles between China and the US has led to differing monetary policies, contributing to the pressure on the RMB [10]. - The US is facing economic challenges due to Trump's policies, which have increased market uncertainty and the risk of recession, impacting the overall economic outlook for 2025 [11].

2025年5月17-18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市盛大召开。18日上午，主题讨论九"人工智能 时代下的数字金融"成功举办。本场主题讨论分为两个环节，首先由中国证监会原主席肖钢发表《数字 金融与数字经济季度形势分析》主题演讲。接下来是圆桌讨论环节，参加圆桌讨论的嘉宾包括清华大学 五道口金融学院金融发展与监管科技研究中心主任张健华、中国人民银行金融研究所副所长莫万贵、蚂 蚁集团研究院院长李振华、北京智谱华章科技有限公司CEO张鹏，清华大学五道口金融学院副院长、副 教授王正位全程主持会议。 图为圆桌讨论环节 肖钢 中国证监会原主席 在主题演讲环节，肖钢指出2025年一季度我国数字经济持续保持良好发展态势，数字经 济核心产业增长超10%，显著高于同期GDP增速，数字制造业和数字服务业均表现亮 眼，数字投资高速增长、数字消费稳中有升，区域分布上东部地区数字经济持续领跑。 数字金融也发展势头良好，特别是De epSe ek的出现实现了AI平权，众多中小金融机构 通过接入De epSe ek等大模型具备了应用AI大模型的能力，金融机构科技投入也更加注 重投入产出比，资金投入呈现出向"精"向"效"的态势，金融 ...

Core Concept - The article discusses the concept of "new quality productivity" introduced by Xi Jinping, emphasizing its importance in China's economic transformation and the role of financial support in facilitating high-quality development [2] Group 1: New Quality Productivity - "New quality productivity" is based on China's strong economic foundation and advanced technology, representing a significant leap in productivity [2] - Financial support for the development of new quality productivity is crucial for the transformation and upgrading of the financial industry [2] Group 2: Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a typical representative of new quality productivity, encompassing various flight activities and types of aircraft [4] - Sichuan Province is focusing on low-altitude economy development, launching 12 key tasks and 16 policy measures to support this sector [6] - Sichuan has successfully implemented innovative applications of drones, significantly improving logistics efficiency in remote areas [6][9] Group 3: Insurance Industry's Role - The insurance industry is actively engaging in supporting the low-altitude economy, with companies like People's Insurance Company of China (PICC) customizing risk protection plans for drone companies [9] - PICC has provided over 37 million yuan in insurance coverage for various drone operations, enhancing operational safety and reducing costs for companies [9] Group 4: New Energy Industry - Sichuan's new energy industry has reached an output value of approximately 600 billion yuan, focusing on building a comprehensive energy system [11] - PICC has issued a green building performance liability insurance policy for a major solar materials project, facilitating 700 million yuan in financing support [11][12] - Collaborations with industry leaders like CATL have led to innovative insurance products that address specific risks in the new energy sector [12] Group 5: Technology Financial Services - PICC has developed comprehensive insurance solutions for technology companies at various growth stages, addressing their unique risks [14][15] - The company has established a national-level intellectual property insurance service platform, providing over 27.2 billion yuan in risk coverage for intellectual property [16] Group 6: Rural Revitalization - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality agricultural development and the role of insurance in managing risks associated with agricultural infrastructure projects [18][20] - PICC has introduced a quality defect liability insurance for high-standard farmland construction, providing over 1.2 billion yuan in risk coverage across multiple regions [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The forum focused on the outlook and development of global capital markets, featuring insights from various experts on the current state and future trends of these markets [1][3]. Group 1: Global Capital Market Insights - The globalization of capital markets has evolved slowly, with significant developments occurring since the 1970s, highlighting the interplay between scientific regulation and political-economic factors [6]. - The U.S. stock market has shown strong long-term growth despite facing short-term shocks, while other markets like Germany and India exhibit varying degrees of resilience and volatility [9]. - The Chinese A-share market is characterized by rapid development but also significant volatility, necessitating attention to key valuation indicators [9][12]. Group 2: Perspectives on International Rules and Regulations - The concept of international rules is often dominated by developed countries, which can disadvantage developing nations; a more rational view of globalization and international regulations is necessary [12]. - The U.S. market faces challenges such as manufacturing hollowing and high national debt, leading to caution regarding U.S. asset valuations [12]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Strategies - Sovereign wealth funds are positioned as patient capital, focusing on long-term economic trends rather than short-term market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of global capital markets despite current challenges [15]. - The Chinese capital market is viewed as an undervalued investment opportunity with strong long-term policy support, suggesting a shift towards value investing [12][15]. Group 4: Discussion on Globalization and Tariff Disputes - The roundtable discussion addressed the profound impacts of de-globalization and tariff disputes on capital markets, with experts providing diverse perspectives on current challenges and future trends [18].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum focused on how finance can better empower technological innovation and development, addressing current pain points in the fintech sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Technology and Innovation - Huang Qifan emphasized that fintech has evolved through stages, with the current phase being Industry Internet Finance 3.0, which is crucial for solving financing difficulties faced by SMEs [6]. - The "1+10" industrial chain cluster model, which includes manufacturing and ten related service industries, is essential for creating a comprehensive digital platform using technologies like big data and AI [6]. - Huang highlighted that Industry Internet can enhance value and create multiple economic function centers, thus addressing the financing challenges of SMEs [6]. Group 2: Government and Policy Support - Ma Weihua discussed the need for continuous reform of government-guided funds to improve the success rate of technology transfer, noting that China's technology conversion rate reached about 35% in 2024, still lagging behind developed countries [9]. - He identified issues such as the disconnect between the innovation chain and funding chain, valuation misalignment, and the need for a more effective risk management mechanism [9]. - Ma suggested that government funds should play a coordinating role in mobilizing social resources for tech enterprises [9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Dynamics - Ni Zewang analyzed the current challenges in the venture capital industry, including the tightening of IPOs and the need for patient capital to help startups cross the "valley of death" [12]. - He noted that many funds established since 2015 have a return on investment (DPI) of less than 0.5, indicating a lack of profitability in the sector [12]. - Ni proposed policy adjustments to lower tax burdens and encourage long-term capital from various sources to enter the venture capital space [12]. Group 4: Regional Development and Talent Acquisition - Qiu Dageng highlighted Hong Kong's initiatives in upstream R&D, talent acquisition, and institutional innovation to support fintech development [15]. - The Hong Kong government has invested 10 billion yuan to commercialize university research and attract top talent in the tech field [15]. - Qiu emphasized the importance of regulatory innovation in areas like Web3 and digital assets to enhance the competitiveness of tech enterprises [15]. Group 5: Risk Management and Collaboration - Guo Jian discussed the need for deep collaboration between financial institutions and tech companies, emphasizing the shift from catch-up to leading-edge R&D in China [17]. - He pointed out that innovative technologies can enhance risk management capabilities in financial institutions, which is crucial for supporting high-risk tech startups [17]. - Guo advocated for the use of digital technologies to improve financial risk prediction and management [17]. Group 6: Comprehensive Financial Support System - The forum concluded with discussions on building a more effective financial support system for tech innovation, emphasizing the need for institutional innovation, technological application, and regional collaboration [21]. - Huang Qifan suggested that the operation of Industry Internet would lead to resource and value aggregation, benefiting the overall tech finance landscape [21]. - The participants agreed on the importance of creating a controllable risk and shared benefit ecosystem for tech finance [21].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum focused on the release of the "China Financial Policy Report 2025," discussing the path and strategies for achieving a strong financial nation and promoting high-quality economic development in China [1][5]. Summary by Sections Overview of the Report - The "China Financial Policy Report" project was established by Tsinghua Wudaokou Financial School and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, aiming to reflect major themes and policy dynamics in China's financial sector over the past 15 years [3]. - The report has been published annually in both Chinese and English, gaining recognition for its comprehensive introduction to China's financial policy [3]. Key Themes of the 2025 Report - The report's theme is "Continuously Deepening Financial System Reform and Accelerating the Construction of a Modern Financial System with Chinese Characteristics," analyzing challenges and opportunities in China's financial development [5][6]. - It highlights the need for reform in the financial system to enhance resilience amid internal and external pressures, including global economic fluctuations and domestic demand instability [6]. Achievements in 2024 - The report reviews significant achievements in establishing a scientific and stable financial regulation system, a well-structured financial market, and a collaborative financial institution system [7][8]. - It emphasizes the importance of a diversified and specialized financial product and service system, as well as the development of secure and efficient financial infrastructure [8]. Future Directions - Future reforms should focus on optimizing financial resource allocation, enhancing the central bank's system, and strengthening financial stability guarantees [8]. - The report stresses the importance of maintaining a balance between development and security while deepening reforms to support China's modernization [8]. Roundtable Discussions - Discussions included the impact of tariff wars on China's economic and financial development, emphasizing the need for structural adjustments in response to external pressures [10][11]. - The importance of enhancing the efficiency of cross-border payment systems for the renminbi was highlighted, along with the need for unified approaches to stabilize the currency system [12]. - Local financial strategies were discussed as crucial for supporting national financial goals, focusing on emerging industries, green finance, and digital finance [16].

5月17日-18日 2025清华五道口全球金融论坛 于深圳盛大召开 汇聚国内外金融界 领袖、学者及行业精英 浓缩思维干货 定位思维坐标 主题五：绿色发展的机遇与挑战 主题六：新兴市场债务危机与金融治理 这四场的嘉宾金句干货已打包完毕 快查收↓↓↓ 主题讨论五 绿色发展的机遇与挑战 周瑞 法国桥智库主席 路易斯・佩雷拉・达・席尔瓦 巴西央行前副行长 国际清算银行前副总经理 刘萌 联合国全球契约组织驻华代表 鞠建东 清华大学五道口金融学院讲席教授 绿色金融研究中心主任 哈马德・塞梅加 前塞内加尔河流域开发组织负责人 马里前矿业、能源和水利部部长 主题讨论六 新兴市场债务危机与金融治理 陆毅 泰国央行金融稳定部部长 清华大学五道口金融学院讲席教授 恩赫泰万・冈包勒德 蒙古央行副行长 梁荣 张礼卿 中央财经大学国际金融研究中心主任 罗曼・诺沃日洛夫 新开发银行环境社会治理局负责人 来源丨清华五道口 编辑丨兰银帆 审核 | 王晗 ...