首席点评 ： 美国总统首次造访美联储，国内反内卷政策持续推进 当地时间 7 月 24 日下午，美国总统特朗普前往美联储，考察美联储耗巨资的建设项目。美媒称这是将 近 20 年来，美国总统首次正式造访美联储，此举是特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔施压的升级。国务院国 资委 7 月 23 日至 24 日在京举办地方国资委负责人研讨班，总结上半年工作，交流做法经验，研究部署 下一阶段重点任务。会议要求，要高质量完成国有企业改革深化提升行动，高起点谋划下一步改革举 措，着力打造创新领先、功能突出、治理高效、充满活力的现代新国企。要紧紧围绕 " 三个集中 " ，优 化国有资产增量投向，调整存量结构，带头抵制 " 内卷式 " 竞争，加强重组整合，推动国有资本优化配 置，形成新的国有资本布局结构。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 0.56% 报 507.1 元 / 桶。贵金 属方面，沪金收跌 0.78% 报 778.08 元 / 克，沪银跌 0.55% 报 9369 元 / 千克。 重点品种：焦煤、原油、钢材 焦煤： 高炉日均铁水产量在经过两周的回落之后，上周单周环比回升 2.63 万吨，为近几周最大单周环 比回升；焦炭产量环比 ...

首席点评 ： 市场反内卷推进，大宗商品受追捧 商务部新闻发言人 23 日表示，经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。发言人说，中美双方将按照两国元首 6 月 5 日通话重要共 识，发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，继续就彼此关心的经 贸问题开展磋商。 7 月 23 日，国家发展改革委主任主持召开企业座谈会时表示，将健全国企民企协同 发展的体制机制，推动整治内卷式竞争。座谈会围绕科学编制 " 十五五 " 规划，听取关于国企民企协同 发展的意见建议。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 0.42% 报 506.00 元 / 桶。贵金属方面，沪金 收跌 0.78% 报 785.26 元 / 克，沪银跌 0.36% 报 9431 元 / 千克。 重点品种：焦煤、原油、钢材 焦煤： 高炉日均铁水产量在经过两周的回落之后，上周单周环比回升 2.63 万吨，为近几周最大单周环 比回升；焦炭产量环比也有所改善。同时，本轮价格的上涨也刺激了下游补库需求，钢厂及焦化厂焦煤 库存已经回升至 1720 万吨，为连续 4 周回升 ...

首席点评 ： 我国外汇市场表现韧性，美国关税政策仍存扰动 美国总统特朗普发文表示，刚刚与日本达成了一项大规模协议，这可能是有史以来最大的一笔协议。日 本将向美国投资 5500 亿美元，美国将获得 90% 的利润。这项协议将创造成千上万的就业机会 —— 这 是前所未有的。也许最重要的是，日本将开放其国家的贸易，包括汽车和卡车，大米和某些其他农产 品，以及其他东西。日本将向美国支付 15% 的对等关税。 7 月 22 日，国新办就 2025 年上半年外汇收 支数据情况举行新闻发布会。国家外汇管理局副局长李斌在回答中国证券报记者提问时表示，今年以 来，外汇形势复杂多变，风险挑战明显增加。面对外部冲击，我国外汇市场顶住压力，运行平稳，表现 出较强韧性。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收跌 0.55% 报 503.8 元 / 桶。贵金属方面，沪金收涨 0.91% 报 792.94 元 / 克，沪银涨 0.75% 报 9453 元 / 千克。 重点品种：黄金、原油、钢材 黄金： 金银走强。 8 月 1 日新的关税大限前市场避险需求有所升温，此外美元和美债收益率的走弱为 黄金提供上行驱动。此前传闻称特朗普考虑解雇鲍威尔，后特 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that most commodities have risen, emphasizing the importance of policy determination [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below the 200-day moving average, currently at 4.35%, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced the listing of propylene futures contracts with a benchmark price of 6350 CNY per ton [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices have primarily risen, with the construction materials sector leading gains while the banking sector lagged [2] - The market's trading volume reached 1.73 trillion CNY, with a decrease in financing balance by 1.99 billion CNY to 1.889167 trillion CNY [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3 - The average daily pig iron output has increased by 26,300 tons week-on-week, marking the largest weekly increase in recent weeks [3] - Coking coal inventory at steel and coking plants has risen to 17.2 million tons, marking a four-week consecutive increase [3] - The market anticipates further policy support, with potential supply constraints due to enhanced safety and environmental regulations ahead of the September 3 military parade [3] Group 4 - Gold and silver have strengthened due to rising market risk aversion ahead of new tariff deadlines, alongside a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [4] - Recent economic data suggests that the impact of tariff policies may be less severe than previously feared, but caution is advised regarding potential future tariff threats [4] - The long-term support for gold remains strong due to continued purchases by the People's Bank of China [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative" due to increased uncertainty and expected prolonged high interest rates [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% [6] - The National Energy Administration reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in June, with a cumulative increase of 3.7% for the first half of the year [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the implementation of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework and the resilience of China's industrial economy [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act" with a vote of 308 to 122, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar [1] - In China, the industrial and information sectors showed steady growth in the first half of the year, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, and manufacturing's share of GDP remaining stable at 25.7% [1] Group 2 - Steel mills are currently maintaining profit margins, with iron water production slowly declining, leading to increasing supply pressure in the steel market [2] - Steel inventory continues to decrease, and while exports face tariffs and anti-dumping measures, billet exports remain strong, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation in the short term [2] - The overall steel market is expected to experience a strong and volatile price trend due to rising raw material costs and positive macroeconomic expectations [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market is primarily in a correction phase, with significant movements in the non-ferrous metals sector and a market turnover of 1.59 trillion yuan [3] - The financing balance increased by 7.073 billion yuan to 1.891157 trillion yuan, indicating a growing interest in capital allocation within the market [3] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from supportive technology policies [3] Group 4 - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, while silver shows stronger performance, influenced by recent economic data and potential changes in U.S. monetary policy [4] - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6%, significantly exceeding expectations, while the June CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [4] - The ongoing fiscal deficit in the U.S. and the People's Bank of China’s continued gold purchases provide long-term support for gold prices, despite short-term price hesitance [4] Group 5 - Domestic GDP data for the first half of the year shows that several provinces outperformed the national average, with Hubei province achieving a GDP growth of 6.2% [6] - The China Iron and Steel Association is advocating for strict control of capacity increases and the establishment of new mechanisms to prevent overcapacity in the steel industry [7]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the marginal effects of external disturbances are decreasing, while domestic autonomy is significantly improving [1] - The chemical industry in China is experiencing low price indices, profit margins, and valuations, with expectations for positive changes in supply due to decreasing capital investment and policy emphasis on "anti-involution" [1] - The overall profitability of the petrochemical industry is under pressure, but there is a strong willingness among companies to improve profitability, which may positively influence market expectations for valuation recovery [1] Group 2 - The article reports that U.S. refined oil demand is down 1.1% year-on-year, with gasoline demand also decreasing by 1.6% [2][10] - OPEC's monthly report predicts a recovery in the global economy in the second half of the year, with Brazil, China, and India performing better than expected [2] - The article notes that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, while gasoline inventory increased by 340,000 barrels [2][10] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market saw an increase in major indices, with the social services sector leading gains and steel sector lagging [3][8] - The financing balance in the capital market increased by 4.94 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments [3] - The article suggests that A-shares offer high investment value, particularly in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3] Group 4 - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing inventory pressure, with glass production inventory decreasing by 970,000 boxes, while soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons [4][14] - The article emphasizes the need for time to digest the current inventory levels in both glass and soda ash markets due to poor production profits [4][14] Group 5 - The article mentions that the maximum electricity load in China has reached a new record of 1.506 billion kilowatts, an increase of 5.5 million kilowatts compared to last year [7] - The article highlights the importance of China's role in the global supply chain and its commitment to ensuring stability and cooperation in the industry [6]

Economic Overview - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiation between new and old economic drivers in the context of China's economic performance, with a GDP of 66.05 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - Fixed asset investment increased by 2.8%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 11.2% [1] - Industrial added value for June grew by 6.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1] Stock Market Insights - The U.S. stock indices experienced a general decline, with the communication sector leading gains and the coal sector facing losses, while market turnover reached 1.64 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 9.738 billion yuan to 1.872324 trillion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investments in the capital market [2] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from supportive policies [2] Bond Market Analysis - The yield on the 10-year government bond fell to 1.6575%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [3] - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, raising concerns about inflation and trade tensions, which affected U.S. Treasury yields [3] - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy, which may provide some support for bond prices amid increasing global economic uncertainties [3] Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, with upstream production cuts potentially affecting future output expectations [4] - Demand for lithium materials is projected to grow, with phosphate iron lithium production expected to increase by 3% in July [4] - Market sentiment is improving, but there are pressures from hedging activities and no signs of upstream production cuts, suggesting a volatile market environment [4] Consumer Goods and Retail - In June, retail sales of consumer goods reached 42.287 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales also increasing by 4.8% [8] - For the first half of the year, total retail sales amounted to 245.458 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, particularly focusing on tariff negotiations and their implications for various industries and markets [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Negotiations - U.S. President Trump announced plans to negotiate tariffs with multiple countries, including the EU, and has already sent letters to over 20 national leaders regarding new tariffs set to take effect on August 1 [1]. - A 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. was also announced, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with inventory decreasing by 970,000 heavy boxes to 57.34 million heavy boxes [2][15]. Soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 1.864 million tons, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels [2][15]. - **Stock Indices**: U.S. stock indices saw slight fluctuations with a market turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.082 billion yuan to 1.862586 trillion yuan, suggesting a growing interest in long-term investments [3][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, while inventory rose by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons, indicating a mixed market sentiment with potential price fluctuations ahead [4][21]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's total goods trade for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [6]. - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in RMB loans, with the total social financing scale growing by 8.9% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - **Bond Market**: The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.668%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [10]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices are under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding global tariffs and production increases from OPEC, which may affect demand forecasts [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which may impact future prices and market dynamics [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" trend is beneficial for commodity prices in the long term, as it encourages stability and innovation in production rather than destructive price competition [1]. Group 1: Automotive Industry - In the first half of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, achieving a double-digit growth year-on-year [1]. - The improvement in inventory levels and production rhythm among car manufacturers is attributed to the ongoing efforts to address "involution" competition [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded significantly due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with current glass production enterprise inventory at 57.34 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 970,000 heavy boxes week-on-week [2]. Soda ash inventory stands at 1.864 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - **Steel**: Steel mills are experiencing stable profit margins, with steel inventory continuing to decrease. Despite facing export challenges, the demand remains resilient, and the market is expected to see a strong performance in steel prices [3][22]. - **Stock Indices**: The U.S. stock indices have shown volatility, with a market turnover of 1.74 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 4.768 billion yuan to 1.8605 trillion yuan [3][8]. Group 3: Industry News - The "National Uranium No. 1" demonstration project has successfully produced its first barrel of uranium, marking a significant breakthrough in China's natural uranium production capabilities [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.66%, with the central bank shifting from net absorption to net injection in the open market [9]. The market is currently facing uncertainties due to international trade tensions and inflation concerns [9]. - The oil market is influenced by geopolitical factors, with OPEC expected to approve significant production increases in September [10]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The U.S. soybean crop's good condition remains stable, with the good rate at 66%, while the domestic supply of soybeans is expected to remain ample, putting pressure on prices [24]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown slight declines, reflecting challenges in increasing freight rates amid fluctuating demand [26].