Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends in various commodities, particularly focusing on copper and oil, while highlighting the geopolitical context and economic indicators influencing these markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic and Geopolitical Context - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of mutual understanding and support between China and France during a meeting with President Macron, which aims to maintain the political foundation of Sino-French relations [1]. - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade organized a delegation to engage with U.S. companies, indicating ongoing efforts to stabilize trade relations between the two countries [1]. - The People's Bank of China plans to conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, reflecting measures to manage liquidity in the financial system [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends Oil - Oil prices saw a slight increase of 1.15% in the overnight session, despite signs of stagnation in the U.S. labor market, with a reported decrease of 9,000 non-farm jobs in November [2][13]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is now at 87%, down from 90% earlier, which may influence oil market dynamics [2][14]. - Sanctions on major oil companies are expected to cause short-term supply disruptions, but long-term impacts on the market are deemed unlikely [2][14]. Copper - Copper prices experienced a slight decline, with ongoing tightness in concentrate supply and smelting profits hovering around breakeven [2][19]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported stable electricity investment and positive growth in automotive production, while the real estate sector remains weak [2][19]. - Global copper supply and demand are shifting towards a deficit due to supply disruptions, necessitating close monitoring of the U.S. dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. Group 3: Stock Market Insights - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with significant movements in the machinery sector leading gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged [3][11]. - Anticipation of two major policy meetings in December, namely the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and China's Central Economic Work Conference, is expected to influence market sentiment and capital flows [3][11]. - The overall market is expected to remain cautious until clearer policy signals emerge, with a potential shift in risk appetite following the meetings [3][11].

原油： sc夜盘上涨0.36%。市场对乌克兰和平进程能否重启抱有希望，同时也存在怀疑态度。乌克兰总统泽连斯 基称，美国与乌克兰代表团将于本周会面，商讨在日内瓦会谈中提出的方案，以期实现和平并为乌克兰提供安全 保障。国际能源署评估10月份欧佩克有配额的9国原油日供应量为2377万桶，比修正过的9月份日供应量减少了18 万桶，比其目标日产量高72万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止11月26日的一周，美国在线钻探油井数量407 座，比前周减少12座；为2021年9月份以来最低，比去年同期减少70座。整体向下趋势难改。 首席点评： 商品驱动分化 国务院总理李强在主持专题学习时指出，新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重要载体。要因 地制宜实施好新型城镇化规划。科学有序推进农业转移人口市民化。美国 11月"小非农"创两年半来最大降幅，美联储 降息预期进一步升温。最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降 幅，远不及市场预期的增加1万个。据商务部，今年1—11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及 超3.6亿人次。 重点品种： 原油，铜 ...

首席点评： 白银延续强势 1 ）国际新闻 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指震荡回落，石油石化板块领涨，传媒板块领跌，市场成交额 1.61万亿元。 资金方面，12月01日融资余额增加102.08亿元至24667.08亿元。2025年12月，全球金融市场将迎来两大"政策风向标"： 美联储12月议息会议与中国中央经济工作会议，其中美联储议息策直接影响全球资本流向与风险偏好，而中央经济工 作会议作为"十五五"规划开局前的关键部署会议，将明确中国2026年经济政策框架与产业发展方向。在国内经济温和 复苏、全球流动性宽松预期升温的背景下，两大会议的政策共振，将影响12月A股节奏，更将为跨年行情与2026年投 资主线奠定基础。整体上我们认为在两大会议政策正式落地前，资金可能更偏谨慎，股市预计仍然偏震荡为主，资金 偏向防御性配置。待会议内容明确，积极政策信号与美联储降息形成共振，市场风险偏好有望再度提升。 品种观点 | | 偏空(可能性) | 偏多(可能性) | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 (IH) | | 4 | | 股指 (IF) | | V | | 股指(IC) | | 1 | | 股指( ...

Group 1: Key Events and Developments - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 to 5 at the invitation of President Xi Jinping [1] - The new China-Russia bilateral investment agreement will officially take effect on December 1, consisting of 20 articles covering investment protection, promotion, facilitation, and dispute resolution [1] - Silver prices have surged to a historical high, with spot silver reaching $58 per ounce for the first time, peaking at $58.84 [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose by 0.04%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily supply of crude oil from nine OPEC countries in October was 23.77 million barrels, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [2][14] - **Copper**: Night trading for copper saw an increase. Supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at breakeven, but smelting output continues to grow. The National Bureau of Statistics indicates positive growth in power grid investment, while real estate remains weak [2][19] - **Zinc**: Night trading for zinc also increased. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and while supply is tight, smelting output continues to rise. Overall, the supply-demand situation for zinc is balanced, with potential fluctuations expected [20] Group 3: Market Trends and Analysis - The U.S. stock indices fell, with the previous trading day seeing a rebound led by the non-ferrous metals sector. The market turnover was 1.89 trillion yuan, and financing balances increased by 1.484 billion yuan to 24,565 billion yuan [3][11] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.825%, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan through reverse repos [12][13] - The market is expected to see a balanced style as the year-end approaches, with cautious funding and potential incremental policies to support the economy [3][11]

首席点评： 黄金原油双反弹 国家统计局发布数据显示， 11 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.2% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，比上 月下降 0.6 个百分点；综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.7% ，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平稳。中国宏观经 济论坛（ CMF ）发布年度报告认为， 2025 年中国经济奋力寻求突破，基本实现预期发展目标。展望 2026 年，中国经济 发展面临三大新机遇——"十五五"规划的开启和适度超前布局将打开全新增长空间、更加积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政 策蓄势待发、微观市场主体将在宏观经济回暖基础上进发新的活力。《报告》建议，设定 2026 年经济社会发展目标时宜审 慎乐观，以"十五五"开启为契机，设定跨周期区间组合目标。 重点品种： 股指、铜、原油 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指上涨为主，农林牧渔板块领涨，银行板块领跌，市场成交额 1.60 万亿元。 资金方面， 11 月 27 日融资余额增加 27.51 亿元至 24550.16 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长 期方向。 11 月以来"权重走 ...

Group 1: International News - The U.S. delegation will visit Moscow next week, and President Putin reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the U.S. list for resolving the Ukraine issue as a basis for future negotiations. He stated that if Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from currently controlled areas, Russia will cease military actions; otherwise, military means will be employed to achieve objectives [1][6]. Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss promoting high-quality development and reviewed the provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance. The meeting emphasized the need to enhance grassroots medical service capabilities [7]. Group 3: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities. The NDRC also highlighted the need to balance speed and bubble risks in the development of embodied intelligence industries, particularly humanoid robots [8]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a high followed by a pullback. The light industry manufacturing sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged. The market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 5.977 billion yuan to 24,522.65 billion yuan [2][11]. Group 5: Commodity Insights - In the coal market, the double焦 (coking coal and coke) futures showed weak performance, with total positions remaining stable. Steel production slightly increased, but overall inventory continued to decline, primarily driven by rebar. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron production [2][21]. Group 6: Oil Market Analysis - The SC night market for crude oil rose by 1.46%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries was 23.77 million barrels in October, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [3][14].

重点品种： 股指、双焦、原油 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指反弹为主，通信板块领涨，国防军工板块领跌，市场成交额 1.80 万亿元。 资金方面， 11 月 25 日融资余额增加 39.90 亿元至 24462.88 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长 期方向。 11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海 外科技业绩落地、小盘股完成补跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动性信号进一步明朗前，大盘价值仍 可能阶段性占优。临近年底，资金相对谨慎，市场风格相较三季度也更为均衡。我们认为在经济压力依然较大的情况 下相关增量政策仍有望积极出台，长牛慢牛有望持续。 双焦：昨日夜盘双焦盘面走势较弱、且焦煤总持仓环比基本持平。上周样本矿山精煤产量环比基本持平，蒙煤通关量 快速回升、已高于去年同期水平，供应端有所恢复，并且发改委官方发文提及要稳定供暖季的能源生产与运输、保供 稳价预期盖过核查超产，需求端上周钢联数据显示，五大材产量环比有所增加、增量主要由建材贡献，整体库存环比 明显下降、螺纹去库幅度最大，整体表需环比改善，目前铁水产量下降的预 ...

Group 1 - The State Council will hold a press conference on November 27 to discuss policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, and promoting consumption [1] - From January to October, China's total foreign direct investment reached $144.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, while new contracts for foreign engineering projects amounted to $210.7 billion, up 18.6% year-on-year [1] - A-share buyback amounts have exceeded 130 billion yuan this year, marking the second-highest level in history, with over 100 companies doubling their stock prices after implementing buybacks [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the communication and media sectors leading the gains, while defense and transportation sectors lagged [2] - The financing balance decreased by 2.88 billion yuan to 2.4423 trillion yuan on November 24, indicating cautious market sentiment as the year-end approaches [2] - The "Fifteen Five" plan continues to focus on technological self-reliance, suggesting that the technology sector remains a long-term investment direction [2] Group 3 - Palm oil inventories continue to accumulate, with a 16.4% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports expected for November 1-25 [3] - The domestic supply of rapeseed oil is under pressure due to increased raw material supply, leading to price declines [3] - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate as supply pressures emerge from overseas production, while domestic production transitions to the off-season [3] Group 4 - The National Space Administration has issued a plan to promote the high-quality and safe development of commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, establishing a national commercial aerospace development fund [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable and positive Sino-U.S. relations, highlighting mutual benefits and cooperation as essential for both nations' prosperity [1][7] - The article discusses the recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump, where they acknowledged the positive trajectory of bilateral relations since the Busan meeting [1][7] - Xi reiterated China's stance on Taiwan, asserting that its return is a crucial part of the post-war international order, and called for joint efforts to uphold the achievements of World War II [1][7] Group 2 - In the financial market, U.S. stock indices showed a significant rebound, with small-cap stocks recovering after a period of adjustment, while sectors like defense and media led the gains [2][10] - The article notes a decrease in financing balance by 29.2 billion yuan to 2.445 trillion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment as the year-end approaches [2][10] - The article suggests that the technology sector remains a long-term focus, with expectations for a more balanced market style if overseas tech performance stabilizes [2][10] Group 3 - The article reports on the weak performance of coking coal and coke futures, with total positions remaining stable, and highlights a recovery in supply as coal imports from Mongolia increase [3][20] - It mentions that the demand side shows improvement, particularly in construction materials, with significant inventory reductions observed [3][20] - The article discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, which could affect global oil supply dynamics, and notes ongoing diplomatic efforts regarding the Ukraine conflict [12][13] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation, marking a net injection of 100 billion yuan for the month, continuing a trend of increased liquidity support [8] - The article highlights the ongoing cautious approach in the market, with expectations for supportive monetary policies amid economic pressures [11]

Market Overview - Recent stock market pullback has led to significant inflows into ETFs, with over 70 billion yuan net inflow into stock ETFs from November 17 to November 21, and more than 40 billion yuan on November 21 alone [1] - External factors such as declining expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising concerns over AI bubbles are identified as primary reasons for the market's recent downturn [1] - Despite these challenges, support from domestic technology sectors and "anti-involution" policies suggests a continued "slow bull" market for Chinese assets [1] Key Products: Stock Index, Oil, and Double焦 - Stock Index: US indices rebounded after a significant drop, with the market turnover at 1.98 trillion yuan. Financing balance decreased by 5.939 billion yuan to 24,743.85 billion yuan on November 20. The focus remains on technology self-reliance as a long-term direction [2][11] - Oil: SC night trading fell by 1.46%. US sanctions on Russian oil companies are set to take effect, and the overall downward trend in oil prices is expected to continue [3][14] - Double焦: Recent trading showed fluctuations, with a decrease in焦煤 positions. Supply recovery is noted, and demand from the construction sector has increased, leading to a significant reduction in overall inventory [3][21] Industry News - The G20 summit concluded in Johannesburg, emphasizing the commitment to multilateral cooperation and common development amid global challenges [6] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with German Chancellor Merz, highlighting the importance of a stable and high-quality strategic partnership between China and Germany [7] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is increasing support for enterprises in Xiong'an New Area, focusing on innovation and industrial clustering [8] External Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.98% on November 21, while the FTSE China A50 futures dropped by 2.66% [10] - The dollar index slightly decreased by 0.07%, indicating a stable currency environment [10] Financial Instruments Commentary - Government bonds saw a slight decline, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.812%. The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance [12] - The copper market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with long-term support for prices anticipated due to global supply-demand shifts [19] - The rubber market is under pressure from increasing supply, while the demand side remains weak, leading to expected price corrections [16]