Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's assessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability, highlighting the recent performance of external stock prices and key economic indicators from China [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the timing for an interest rate cut is approaching due to signs of a weakening job market and a lack of persistent tariff inflation [1]. - China's service import and export total reached 38,872.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Exports were 16,883 billion yuan, up 15%, while imports were 21,989.6 billion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit decreased by 1,522.1 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks rose, with defense and machinery sectors leading the gains, while retail and oil sectors lagged. The market turnover was 15.2 trillion yuan [2][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 4.753 billion yuan to 1.966274 trillion yuan as of August 1 [2][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy has been driving stock index increases since July, with current policy signals clear, but the fundamentals have yet to be validated [2][10]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Rubber prices stabilized after a decline, supported by supply-side factors, while demand remains weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][17]. - Glass futures continue to show weakness, with inventory levels decreasing as summer maintenance deepens, indicating a focus on supply-side contraction [3][16]. - The pure soda market is also experiencing a trial stop in price declines, with inventory levels decreasing, suggesting a process of stock digestion [3][16]. Group 4: Industry News - In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, but a month-on-month decrease of 4% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various sectors, particularly focusing on the U.S. non-farm payrolls, oil prices, and the performance of the Chinese stock market. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest increase in nine months [11][18] - The previous two months' data were revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weakening labor market [11][18] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly dropped to 48%, the lowest in nine months, reflecting a contraction in the manufacturing sector [11] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 2.86% in the overnight session, with OPEC and its allies approving an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day for September [12][19] - The U.S. President threatened to penalize China and India for purchasing oil from a European country, which could risk 2.75 million barrels per day of maritime oil exports from that country [12][19] - China and India, the second and third largest oil consumers globally, have not indicated plans to reduce imports, although India has completed its procurement of Russian oil for September [12][19] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The Chinese stock market experienced a decline following the disappointing U.S. non-farm payrolls data, with significant drops in the oil, petrochemical, and defense sectors [9][10] - The market capitalization reached 1.62 trillion yuan, with a slight increase in financing balance by 432 million yuan to 19,710.27 billion yuan [9][10] - The article suggests that while the current policy signals are clear and valuations are beginning to recover, the fundamental economic conditions have yet to be validated [9][10] Group 4: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission of China plans to accelerate the approval of new policy financial tools, which may boost infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [6] - Hospitals in several provinces are tightening regulations on pharmaceutical representatives, aiming to curb unethical practices in the medical field [7]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee to analyze the current economic situation and work [1] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with Chairman Powell indicating it is too early to predict a rate cut in September [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - U.S. major indices showed mixed performance, with small-cap stocks weakening while steel and oil sectors led gains [2] - The financing balance increased by 15.318 billion yuan to 1.968421 trillion yuan, indicating a growing interest in the stock market [2] - A-share investment is considered to have high cost-effectiveness, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 benefiting from more supportive technology policies [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices continued to decline, influenced by a strong U.S. dollar and ongoing trade negotiations, with the market speculating on a potential rate cut in September [3][17] - International oil prices rose for three consecutive days, with the U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate significantly exceeding expectations at 3% [4][11] - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to mixed demand signals and U.S. tariff developments, with domestic demand remaining stable [18][19] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new capacities in copper smelting and aluminum oxide, guiding reasonable layouts for new capacities in silicon, lithium, and magnesium [8] - The domestic methanol production capacity is showing signs of pressure, with inventory levels remaining high despite a slight increase in production [13] - The glass and soda ash markets are undergoing inventory digestion, with expectations of improved supply dynamics due to seasonal maintenance [15]

Group 1: Trade Relations - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts by China and the U.S. to ease trade tensions, with recent discussions in Stockholm focusing on economic policies and trade agreements [1] - The consensus reached during the talks includes extending the suspension of U.S. tariffs and China's countermeasures for an additional 90 days [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with significant trading activity noted at 1.83 trillion yuan, while financing balances increased by 19.26 billion yuan [2][8] - The banking sector has shown strong performance since 2025, benefiting from a low-risk interest rate environment, which is expected to attract more long-term capital into the market [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have seen fluctuations due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi, with weekly production slightly increasing [3][19] - Oil prices rose by 2.49% following Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs on Russia if progress is not made in resolving the Ukraine conflict [3][10] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% in June, with imports decreasing by 4.2% and exports declining by 0.6% [4] - China's state-owned enterprises reported a slight decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with a debt ratio increase to 65.2% [5]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. Treasury Department expects a net borrowing of nearly $1.01 trillion in Q3, an increase of over $450 billion compared to previous estimates, primarily due to the debt ceiling increase and accelerated bond issuance [1] - The auction of 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low, and the bid-to-cover ratio indicating increased market pressure [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the coal sector adjusted; market turnover reached 1.77 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 5.472 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may help reduce stock market volatility [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Daily average pig iron production slightly decreased to 2.4223 million tons, while steel mill profitability rose to 63.64%; coke production showed improvement [3][23] - The price increase in coke has stimulated downstream replenishment demand, with inventories rising for four consecutive weeks [3][23] - The crude oil market saw a 2.06% increase, influenced by a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which includes significant investments in U.S. energy [4][11] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The German government plans to approve a record investment of 126.7 billion euros in its 2026 budget, focusing on infrastructure and defense [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the importance of rural revitalization and urbanization, aiming to improve living conditions in rural areas by 2035 [6] - The paper industry in Guangdong has initiated a "anti-involution" initiative to resist low-price competition and protect market integrity [8]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to consolidate the market's stabilization and improvement by enhancing the investment value of listed companies and implementing major asset restructuring management measures [1] - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of cultivating long-term capital and promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, alongside reforms in public funds and private equity [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China clarifies its stance on issues such as "overcapacity" and industrial subsidies, highlighting the complementary nature of China-EU economic relations [1] Group 2 - The US stock indices rose, with a market turnover of 1.82 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 6.097 billion yuan to 1.928369 trillion yuan [2] - The banking sector has performed well since 2025, and the proportion of medium- and long-term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which will help reduce stock market volatility [2] - A-share investment is considered to have high value, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 benefiting from more supportive policies, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are seen as having defensive value in the current macro environment [2] Group 3 - The average daily pig iron production increased by 26,300 tons week-on-week, marking the largest weekly increase in recent weeks, while coke production also improved [3] - Coking coal inventory at steel and coking plants has risen to 17.2 million tons, continuing a four-week upward trend, while the inventory of coking coal mines has decreased to 3.3907 million tons [3] - There are expectations for policy support, and coal supply may continue to be restricted ahead of the September 3 military parade, indicating potential for further price increases [3] Group 4 - Lithium carbonate prices have surged due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi, with weekly production slightly increasing and demand remaining strong [4] - The core contradiction in the lithium market is focused on warehouse inventory, with expectations of price strength in the short term driven by "anti-involution" policies [4] - New production capacity continues to come online, but there are concerns about the potential negative feedback from slowing terminal sales on upstream supply [4] Group 5 - In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to May, while the equipment manufacturing sector saw rapid profit growth [6] - The profit of the black metal smelting and rolling industry increased by 13.7 times year-on-year in the first half of the year, while the mining industry saw a profit decline of 30.3% [6] Group 6 - The chairman of the China Listed Companies Association emphasized the need for production limits in the photovoltaic industry to stabilize prices and maintain profitability [7] - The successful experiences of cement consolidation and high profitability cycles in electrolytic aluminum are suggested as references for the struggling photovoltaic sector [7]

首席点评 ： 美国总统首次造访美联储，国内反内卷政策持续推进 当地时间 7 月 24 日下午，美国总统特朗普前往美联储，考察美联储耗巨资的建设项目。美媒称这是将 近 20 年来，美国总统首次正式造访美联储，此举是特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔施压的升级。国务院国 资委 7 月 23 日至 24 日在京举办地方国资委负责人研讨班，总结上半年工作，交流做法经验，研究部署 下一阶段重点任务。会议要求，要高质量完成国有企业改革深化提升行动，高起点谋划下一步改革举 措，着力打造创新领先、功能突出、治理高效、充满活力的现代新国企。要紧紧围绕 " 三个集中 " ，优 化国有资产增量投向，调整存量结构，带头抵制 " 内卷式 " 竞争，加强重组整合，推动国有资本优化配 置，形成新的国有资本布局结构。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 0.56% 报 507.1 元 / 桶。贵金 属方面，沪金收跌 0.78% 报 778.08 元 / 克，沪银跌 0.55% 报 9369 元 / 千克。 重点品种：焦煤、原油、钢材 焦煤： 高炉日均铁水产量在经过两周的回落之后，上周单周环比回升 2.63 万吨，为近几周最大单周环 比回升；焦炭产量环比 ...

首席点评 ： 市场反内卷推进，大宗商品受追捧 商务部新闻发言人 23 日表示，经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。发言人说，中美双方将按照两国元首 6 月 5 日通话重要共 识，发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，继续就彼此关心的经 贸问题开展磋商。 7 月 23 日，国家发展改革委主任主持召开企业座谈会时表示，将健全国企民企协同 发展的体制机制，推动整治内卷式竞争。座谈会围绕科学编制 " 十五五 " 规划，听取关于国企民企协同 发展的意见建议。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 0.42% 报 506.00 元 / 桶。贵金属方面，沪金 收跌 0.78% 报 785.26 元 / 克，沪银跌 0.36% 报 9431 元 / 千克。 重点品种：焦煤、原油、钢材 焦煤： 高炉日均铁水产量在经过两周的回落之后，上周单周环比回升 2.63 万吨，为近几周最大单周环 比回升；焦炭产量环比也有所改善。同时，本轮价格的上涨也刺激了下游补库需求，钢厂及焦化厂焦煤 库存已经回升至 1720 万吨，为连续 4 周回升 ...

首席点评 ： 我国外汇市场表现韧性，美国关税政策仍存扰动 美国总统特朗普发文表示，刚刚与日本达成了一项大规模协议，这可能是有史以来最大的一笔协议。日 本将向美国投资 5500 亿美元，美国将获得 90% 的利润。这项协议将创造成千上万的就业机会 —— 这 是前所未有的。也许最重要的是，日本将开放其国家的贸易，包括汽车和卡车，大米和某些其他农产 品，以及其他东西。日本将向美国支付 15% 的对等关税。 7 月 22 日，国新办就 2025 年上半年外汇收 支数据情况举行新闻发布会。国家外汇管理局副局长李斌在回答中国证券报记者提问时表示，今年以 来，外汇形势复杂多变，风险挑战明显增加。面对外部冲击，我国外汇市场顶住压力，运行平稳，表现 出较强韧性。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收跌 0.55% 报 503.8 元 / 桶。贵金属方面，沪金收涨 0.91% 报 792.94 元 / 克，沪银涨 0.75% 报 9453 元 / 千克。 重点品种：黄金、原油、钢材 黄金： 金银走强。 8 月 1 日新的关税大限前市场避险需求有所升温，此外美元和美债收益率的走弱为 黄金提供上行驱动。此前传闻称特朗普考虑解雇鲍威尔，后特 ...