Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the cautious stance of financial institutions and the impact of international trade policies on various commodities and sectors [1][4][5]. Domestic News - The Chinese government encourages U.S. financial institutions to deepen cooperation in the capital market [1]. - State-owned enterprises reported total revenue of 262,755 billion yuan from January to April, with a profit of 13,491.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [5]. International News - The European Commission aims to reduce carbon emissions by 54% by 2030, slightly below its 55% target, and plans to propose a 90% reduction by 2040 despite opposition from member states [4]. Commodity Insights Oil - SC night trading rose by 0.84%, with OPEC and its allies planning to hold meetings to discuss production levels, including a potential increase of 41.1 million barrels per day [2][10]. Coal and Coke - Short-term expectations for thermal coal prices are stable, but a downward trend is anticipated afterward. Coke supply is slightly reduced, but high inventory levels hinder market sentiment [3][24]. Agricultural Products - Oilseed prices are weak due to increased domestic soybean supply and expectations of rising inventories. Palm oil production is also increasing, leading to higher stock levels [3][25]. Metals - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to stable domestic demand and external factors such as U.S. trade negotiations. Zinc prices are also expected to be volatile, supported by improving domestic automotive and construction sectors [15][17]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has weakened, with expectations of further declines in freight rates due to increased capacity and lower demand [29].

首席点评：原油 " 跌跌不休 " 国内方面：国务院总理李强在吉隆坡出席东盟 -中国-海合会峰会。会议以"共创机遇 共享繁荣"为主 题。李强指出，中方愿同东盟、海合会加强三方伙伴关系，商讨制定高质量共建"一带一路"行动计划， 加强基础设施、市场规则等对接联通，拓展能源、农业、人工智能、数字经济、绿色低碳等领域合作， 促进人员往来和民心相通。国际方面：美国特朗普政府正在考虑要求所有申请赴美留学的外国学生接受 社交媒体审查。为准备实施这一审查要求，特朗普政府已下令美国各大使馆和领事馆停止为此类学生签 证申请人安排新的面试。市场方面：欧佩克及其减产同盟国已宣布5月和6月连续两次增产，分别为每日 41.1万桶，是该组织此前计划产量的三倍。另一个日均增加41.1万桶的增产方案是正在讨论的7月份原油 日产量方案之一。关注低油价给与美国制裁委内瑞拉和伊朗的空间。 国家统计局公布数据显示， 4月份，我国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3%，较3月份加快0.4个百分 点。以装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的新动能行业利润增长较快，智能车载设备制造、智能无人飞 行器制造等行业利润分别增长177.4%、167.9%。 3）行业新闻 重点品 ...

贵金属： 金银价格步入整理。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，令担忧情绪降 温，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%，一度刺激黄金走高。上周美国众议院以微弱优势通 过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元，对美国债务问题的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经 济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显的滞胀态势，短期经济数据的表现影 响有限。美联储难有快速动作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待 关税冲突降温的阶段，而美联储短期内难有快速降息，黄金白银步入持续整理阶段。但黄金长期驱动仍 然明确提供支撑，短期内有关关税谈判扰动，美国债务问题发酵或是美联储重新QE等动作，都会提供 反弹动力，整体上呈现偏强震荡态势。 铜 ： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 首席点评 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in shipping rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on various commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, while highlighting the ongoing economic adjustments and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are currently in a consolidation phase, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and economic data reflecting potential stagflation [2][4][16]. - President Trump's decision to extend the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU has alleviated some market concerns, leading to temporary price increases in gold [2][4][16]. - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill that is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about U.S. debt levels [2][4][16]. Group 2: Copper - Domestic demand for copper remains stable, driven by increased investments in power grids and growth in home appliance production [17]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to low processing fees and copper prices, with attention on U.S. tariff negotiations and currency exchange rates [17]. Group 3: Shipping Industry - The shipping index for Europe has shown a decline, with the latest SCFIS European line index at 1247.05 points, down 1.4% [30]. - The shipping market is optimistic about potential price increases in June, with average container prices rising to around $2400, reflecting a $600-$700 increase from the end of May [30]. - The overall shipping capacity is expected to remain stable, but the market anticipates a cooling period after initial price increases, leading to a more balanced outlook [30].

首席点评： 美国将对欧盟加征50%关税 国务院总理李强在印度尼西亚总统府同印尼总统普拉博沃举行会谈。李强指出，双方要加强市场联通和 产业协作，提升贸易投资便利化水平，拓展金融、新能源、数字经济、人工智能、航空航天、海洋等领 域合作。 国际方面：第 25届东盟经济共同体理事会会议在马来西亚吉隆坡举行。会议预测，今年东盟地区国内 生产总值(GDP)将较去年增长4.7%，通货膨胀率将约为3%。会议认为，受外部环境因素影响，对东盟 经济增长的预测有下调风险。 市场方面：当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于较低水平，中长期资金入市配置的性价比仍然较高。 当前地产仍未企稳，外部不利影响仍在，央行仍将保持支持性货币政策，资金面保持宽松，对短端期债 价格仍有支撑。 重点品种： 贵金属、股指、原油 贵金属： 金银价格回落。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，周一早盘黄金价格 回落，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，未来十年 将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元。对美国债务问题和经济压力的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经济数据将逐 渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显 ...

首席点评：加密货币热度高涨，黄金回到主舞台 国内方面：习近平同法国总统马克龙通电话。习近平指出，支持欧盟加强战略自主，在国际事务中发挥 更重要作用。央行： 5 月 23 日开展 5000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。国际方面：美国总统特朗 普：马上要去参加在弗吉尼亚州举行的加密货币晚宴。美国在加密货币、比特币等领域占据主导地位。 市场方面：股指、国债小幅回落。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于较低水平，中长期资金入市配 置的性价比仍然较高。当前地产仍未企稳，外部不利影响仍在，央行仍将保持支持性货币政策，资金面 保持宽松，对短端期债价格仍有支撑，关注后续贸易谈判进展。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、国债 贵金属： 美元价格反弹，金银价格回落。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦 债务约 3.8 万亿美元。有关穆迪下调美国主权评级以及特朗普减税法案推出等事件下，对美国债务问题 和经济压力的担忧发酵，本周整体上美债下跌，美元表现疲弱令金银出现反弹。关税冲击进入缓和阶 段，市场避险情绪降温。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更 将明显的滞胀态势。短期内美联储难有 ...

首席点评： 打得一拳开，免得百拳来 原油： SC夜盘下跌1.09%。哈梅内伊对与美国的核谈判能否达成协议表示怀疑，因为伊朗正在审查举 行第五轮谈判的提议。美国石油学会数据显示，上周美国原油库存继续增加，同期美国汽油库存和馏分 油库存减少。截止2025年5月16日当周，美国商业原油库存增加249.9万桶；同期美国汽油库存减少3.328 万桶；馏分油库存减少140.1万桶。库欣地区原油库存减少44.3万桶。关注低油价给与美国制裁委内瑞拉 和伊朗的空间。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1 ）国际新闻 欧盟指美国谈判提案不切实际，被爆抛出新方案，拟部分产品免关税，共同投资 AI等领域。媒体称， 欧盟提出，逐步将非敏感农产品和工业品的关税降至零、在能源、AI和数字连接领域的互惠投资与战 略采购计划，还涉及在应对钢铁、汽车等领域产能过剩等共同挑战方面的合作；欧盟期望达成一个平衡 且互利的协议，目前双方仍在相互试探。 2）国内新闻 中国 5年期和1年期LPR利率均下调10基点，为年内首降。5月20日周二，中国人民银行授权全国银行间 同业拆借中心公布，中国1年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）最新报3.00%，上次为3.10%；5年期LP ...

首席点评： 这边风景独好 中国人民银行行长潘功胜：实施好适度宽松的货币政策，满足实体经济有效融资需求，保持金融总量合 理增长。国际局势：印度和巴基斯坦已同意在五月底前将军队撤至冲突前的位置。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内 伊：我认为与美国的核谈判不会成功。稳定向好的经济环境是发展的基石，对比纷乱的国际局势，坚定 看好国内大循环、大市场走好自己的路。 重点品种： 股指、 国债 、铜 股指： 美国三大指数小幅下跌，上一交易日股指上涨，美容护理板块领涨，国防军工板块领跌，全市 成交额 1.21万亿元，其中IH2506上涨0.45%，IF2506上涨0.63%，IC2506上涨0.58%，IM2506上涨 0.88%。资金方面，5月19日融资余额增加35.97亿元至17984.54亿元。5月7日国新办发布会发布了利好 政策，5月12日中美关税谈判取得阶段性成果，短期利好股市。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于 较低水平，中长期资金入市配置的性价比仍然较高。从当前走势看，短期暂无持续向上突破的迹象，建 议股指期货先观望，股指期权以卖权为主。 国债： 小幅下跌， 10年期国债活跃券收益率上行至1.665%。央行公开市场操作净投放17 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of international disputes on financial markets and emphasizes the importance of maintaining confidence in achieving success amidst these challenges [1]. Group 1: Financial Sector Insights - The People's Bank of China aims to support Beijing in becoming a highland for technology finance and to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to accelerate the development of the Beijing Stock Exchange to better serve innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [1]. - U.S. President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, criticizing Chairman Powell for being slow to act [1]. Group 2: Shipping and Commodities - The shipping index for Europe showed fluctuations, with the 08 contract closing at 2387.9 points, up 5.84% [2]. - The SCFIS European line index was reported at 1265.30 points, down 2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline [2]. - The outlook for the shipping market suggests a return to rationality after a period of heightened expectations, with the June contract expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. Group 3: Oil and Industrial Production - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" due to high government debt of $36 trillion and a heavy interest burden [3]. - China's industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in April, indicating a continued growth trend [3]. - Retail sales in April reached 37,174 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, reflecting a slight acceleration compared to the first quarter [3]. Group 4: Economic Data and Trends - China's April economic data showed a slight recovery in consumption, with retail sales growth at 5.1% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in home appliances and cultural products [5]. - The fixed asset investment growth rate remained low, and the real estate sector showed signs of a pullback [5]. - The retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 25% year-on-year, while automotive consumption grew by 0.7% [5]. Group 5: Industry Developments - Xiaomi is set to launch its SUV model YU7 and its self-developed SoC chip, which is expected to enhance its high-end strategy [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs has a positive outlook on Xiaomi, citing its strong balance sheet and integration capabilities as key advantages [7]. Group 6: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed slight increases, with the environmental sector leading gains while the food and beverage sector lagged [8]. - The bond market saw a general rise, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 1.663% [9]. - The market's risk appetite improved following progress in U.S.-China trade talks, which included the cancellation of some tariffs [9].

首席点评： 宏观利好，内需接力 中美达成重要共识。中美经贸高层会谈 5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务 院副总理当地时间11日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深 入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。国际方面：俄乌传出谈判迹象，特朗普表示今日 与双方领导展开沟通。巴以冲突仍在持续，暂无停火意向。印巴冲突导致克什米尔地区战火不断，核威 胁升级，大国博弈加剧。特朗普继续批评鲍威尔降息节奏太迟，但短期来看美联储尚未释放降息讯号。 在宏观面向好的预期下，商品将持续迎接不断的扰动冲击。坚定看好需求韧性下，各品种回到基本面轨 道，等待明确新的方向。 重点品种： 航运、原油、聚烯烃 集运欧线： 上周五 EC回调，08合约在传统旺季预期下回调相对有限。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1154美 元/TEU，环比小幅下降7美元/TEU，基本对应于05.19-05.25期间的欧线订舱价，反映5月下旬运价的多 数沿用。在经过前期宏观情绪缓和及美线抢运潮带来的欧线旺季预期升温后，短期市场有所降温，逐渐 回归理性，预计将回归欧线本身的基本面及估值表现。以目前6月初大柜报价 ...