Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. imposing tariffs on 14 countries, highlighting the potential impact on various commodities and market sectors, including precious metals, oil, and stock indices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on countries including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and South Africa starting August 1 [1]. - The announcement has led to a decline in domestic commodity futures, with most sectors experiencing a downturn, particularly in oilseeds and black metals [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are experiencing hesitation in upward movement due to market uncertainty surrounding the tariff policies and the upcoming deadline [2][16]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, which has led to a stabilization of the dollar and put pressure on precious metals [2][16]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices rose over 2% as Saudi Arabia raised its outlook for oil demand in Asia, despite a surprise increase in U.S. crude oil inventories [3][10]. - The American Petroleum Institute reported a rise in crude oil inventories after five weeks of decline, indicating potential volatility in the oil market [3][10]. Group 4: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have seen a decline, with public utility sectors leading gains while coal sectors faced losses, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [3][8]. - The financing balance decreased by 6.341 billion yuan, indicating a tightening of capital in the market as uncertainties around tariffs grow [3][8]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Policies - China's Premier Li Qiang emphasized the country's capability to counter external economic pressures and maintain healthy economic growth through proactive macroeconomic policies [5]. - The Chinese government plans to implement measures to boost domestic demand and consumption, aiming to leverage its large market size for economic stability [5]. Group 6: Commodity Market Trends - The article notes that various commodities, including methanol and rubber, are experiencing fluctuations due to seasonal demand and supply chain dynamics [11][12][14]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity market remains cautious, with traders closely monitoring the developments in tariff policies and their potential impacts on supply and demand [2][3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in trade tariffs set by the U.S. government, the implications for various industries, and the current state of key commodities such as oil, steel, and shipping rates. Group 1: Trade Tariffs and Economic Policies - The U.S. government, under President Trump, is set to implement new unilateral tariff rates, which may range from 10% to 70%, effective from August 1 [1] - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for technological innovation in agriculture and healthcare to enhance economic quality and competitiveness [1] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day, exceeding market expectations [3] - U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 68,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 1.92 million barrels, indicating a mixed supply situation [3] Group 3: Steel Market Dynamics - Steel mills are experiencing stable profit margins, but supply pressures are beginning to manifest as inventory levels decrease [3][22] - The steel market faces a dual weakness in supply and demand, with seasonal demand expected to decline due to the rainy season in southern China [22] Group 4: Shipping Industry Trends - The European shipping index (SCFI) rose by $71 per TEU to $2,101, indicating a recovery in shipping rates after previous declines [2][27] - The market anticipates a stable shipping rate environment in the latter half of July, with a focus on upcoming tariff announcements that may influence market sentiment [2][27] Group 5: Agricultural Sector Developments - The U.S. soybean crop's good rating stands at 66%, slightly below market expectations, which may impact future pricing and supply dynamics [25] - The domestic supply of soybeans remains ample, which could limit upward price movements despite positive signals from U.S.-China trade relations [25]

美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应商——新思科技、楷登电子和西门子，此前要求其在华业 务必须申请政府许可的规定现已撤销。西门子称已全面恢复中国客户对其软件和技术的访问权限，新思 科技与楷登电子称正在逐步重启相关服务。美国国会众议院以 218 票赞成、 214 票反对的表决结果通过 了总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及 大企业减税等而备受争议。白宫说，特朗普定于 7 月 4 日即美国"独立日"当天签署该法案，使其生效。 该法案将美国联邦政府的法定债务上限提高 5 万亿美元，国会预算办公室（ CBO ）估计，这可能会让 政府预算赤字未来十年内增加 3.4 万亿美元。国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一， COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.71% 报 3336.00 美元 / 盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.85% 报 37.04 美元 / 盎司。美联储政策转向预期 与贸易紧张局势支撑金价，但强劲非农数据削弱避险需求。美国财长暗示更大降息幅度，欧盟与美国贸 易谈判进展引发市场关注。 重点品种： 贵金属、甲醇、玻璃 甲醇： 甲醇上涨 0.88% 。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃 ...

首席点评： 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设 铜： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持 续疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因素 变化。 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少 3.3 万人，自 2023 年 3 月以来首次负增长，预期为增长 9.8 万人， 5 月份数据在向下修正后仅增加 2.9 万人。服务业就业在 6 月份减少 6.6 万个就业岗位，遭遇自疫情以来 的最大降幅。美国利率期货完全消化美联储 9 月降息预期。证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化 股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢记我国资本市场中 小投资者众多的最大市情，不断完善投资者保护制度体系。深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全 面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好资本市场自主开放重点举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首 要任务，推动健全常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域风险。央行近日发文 明 ...

黄金： 金银价格反弹。临近关税暂缓截止日和大而美法案的推进令市场有所不安，美元表现疲软。近 期美联储官员们表态继续维持观望，尽管有官员表示最快 7 月降息，但有通胀降低、贸易政策明朗等前 提条件。大而美法案推升财政赤字预期。近期美国方面数据所显示关税政策的冲击比担忧中的要小，不 过目前看贸易谈判进展有限，财政部长暗示协议或要到 9 月达成，随着政策框架的修改，市场或为未来 宽松进行铺垫，如关税政策明朗，降息预期将进一步明确。黄金方面尽管长期驱动仍然提供支撑，但价 位较高上行迟疑。考虑 7 月关税暂缓截止期临近，警惕特朗普相关政策的不确定性和关税再度升温的相 关炒作。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1 ）国际新闻 首席点评： 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设 美国参议院表决结果通过"大而美"税收与支出法案，法案将送交众议院。美国总统特朗普表示，有信心 税收法案能在众议院获得通过。中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、 海洋经济高质量发展等问题。会议强调，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政府采购和招标投 标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动，健全有利于市场统一的 财税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors as indicated by the PMI data, along with significant developments in the foreign exchange management and the solar glass industry [1][5]. Economic Indicators - In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non-manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and composite PMI was 50.7%, all showing an increase of 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1][5]. - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors have maintained PMIs in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [1]. Foreign Exchange Management - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has issued a total investment quota of $3.08 billion to qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) to support their cross-border investment activities [1]. Oil Price Adjustments - A new round of adjustments to domestic refined oil retail prices is expected, with an estimated increase of approximately 230 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1]. Solar Glass Industry - Major domestic solar glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July to alleviate "involution-style" competition, which is expected to lead to a rapid decline in domestic solar glass supply and improve the supply-demand imbalance [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential resurgence of inflation in the U.S. due to trade policies and economic uncertainties, urging central banks to focus on their core missions to maintain market trust and enhance policy effectiveness [1] - The A-share market has shown a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increasing by 3.73% and 5.69% respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that upcoming mid-year reports from listed companies will create structural investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and high safety margins, such as consumer goods and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - The shipping index for the European route has shown fluctuations, with the SCFI European line increasing by $195/TEU to $2030/TEU, reflecting the pricing situation for July [2] - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with significant trading volume, indicating a potential upward breakout in the A-share market, particularly for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices supported by technology policies [3][9] - The glass and soda ash markets are currently in a phase of inventory digestion, with soda ash production inventory decreasing by 152,000 tons, while glass production inventory increased by 70,000 boxes [4][15] Group 3 - International news includes President Trump's comments on not needing to extend the deadline for countries to reach agreements to avoid higher tariffs, criticizing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [5] - Domestic news reports that China has conditionally resumed imports of seafood from certain regions in Japan following monitoring of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater situation [6] - Industry news from the 2025 Listed Companies Forum indicates ongoing reforms in major exchanges, with a notable trend of A+H listings expected to increase [7][8]

首席点评：美国经济萎缩 铜：夜盘铜价收涨超 1%。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据 来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产 持续疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 素变化。 玻璃纯碱：玻璃期货整理运行。基本面，盘面目前在千元下方逐步止跌，横盘震荡。不过，整体而言市 场依然关注宏观托底背景下微观层面供需消化的成效。数据方面，上周玻璃生产企业库存 6052万重 箱，环比增加7万重箱。纯碱期货反弹。数据层面，本周纯碱生产企业库存179.3万吨，环比增加4.2万 吨。综合而言，国内，玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产利润不佳，目前的去库进程需要 时间。不过，随着国内消费需求的提振，继续关注玻璃纯碱自身的供需消化过程，同时关注商品整体的 回暖对于地产链的需求带动。纯碱而言，总体供给仍有一些变化，后市聚焦于供需的平衡过程，尤其是 供给端的调节能否有助于库存的进一步消化。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1）国际新闻 国务院总理李强出席亚投行第十届理事会年会开幕式并致辞。李强指出，今年中国 ...

首席点评：稳定币是机遇也是挑战 国际货币基金组织（ IMF）副总裁李波在2025年夏季达沃斯论坛上表示，稳定币的发展既存在机遇， 也存在挑战，核心挑战在于，如何对稳定币实施有效的监管，需要在全球范围内达成更多共识。欧洲央 行担忧，稳定币可能威胁金融稳定并影响数字欧元推行，但欧盟委员会认为风险可控。伊朗议会通过一 项法案，暂停伊朗与联合国核监督机构的合作。美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在 的核协议展开会谈。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前经济形势存在高度不确定性，希望以实际数据为依 据，而不是过于自信地做出预测，某个时候美联储将会恢复降息。国务院总理表示当前国际经贸格局正 在发生深刻变化，我们应当坚定不移拥抱普惠包容的经济全球化，维护自由贸易和多边主义，促进世界 经济稳定发展。海外美股涨跌不一，美债收益率回落，原油止跌，国内夜盘能化、农产品、黑色板块多 数上涨。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、橡胶 贵金属：金银小幅反弹。以色列和伊朗同意全面停火，美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一 项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议 "有多必要"。美联储主席鲍威尔在国 会证词中表示，美联储目前处 ...

首席点评：以伊宣布停火 伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与 "以色列及其支持者"停火。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡也发表 声明称，接受美国总统特朗普提出的停火协议。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会证词中表示，美联储目前处于 有利位置，不排除关税对通胀的影响可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能。国新办举行新闻发布会 介绍，9月3日上午，北京天安门广场将举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大 会，包括检阅部队。央行公告称，将于6月25日开展3000亿元MLF操作。本月MLF净投放达到1180亿 元，为连续第4个月加量续作。海外美股上涨，美债收益率回落，国内夜盘原油能化、黑色板块下跌。 重点品种：原油、铜、集运欧线 原油：夜盘油价下跌 9%以上。美国总统特朗普在Truth Social上表示，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致， 将会有一个完全和彻底的停火。（从现在开始大约6个小时，当以色列和伊朗已经结束并完成他们正在 进行的最后任务！）在12小时后，战争将被视为结束。受此影响地缘风险溢价大幅挤出市场。俄罗斯表 示，全球主要石油生产商组成的OPEC+集团可能将增产计划较原定时间提前约一年实现。 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精 ...