Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and geopolitical events impacting market sentiment, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI both showed a mild month-on-month increase of 0.1% in May, which is below expectations, with core PPI growth reaching a near one-year low, raising expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The financing balance in China increased by 1.82 billion yuan to 1.8066 trillion yuan on June 11, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [2][7] - The US initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, with continuing claims soaring to the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating potential economic weakness [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - In the oilseed market, the EIA forecasts a significant decline in US biodiesel and renewable diesel imports due to tax credit policy adjustments, which may support a slight increase in US soybean oil prices [3] - The May production of Malaysian palm oil reached 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05%, while exports rose by 25.62% to 1.3872 million tons, indicating a robust supply-demand dynamic [3] - Copper prices are under pressure due to low smelting fees and weak demand from the real estate sector, with domestic demand remaining stable in the power and automotive industries [3][15] Group 3: Geopolitical Events - Israel's Defense Minister warned of potential missile and drone attacks against Israel following its strikes on Iran, which could escalate regional tensions and impact market stability [4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and pork products from the EU, extending the investigation period to December 16, 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [5] Group 4: Market Performance - The US stock indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the overall market showing a bullish trend, supported by the principle agreement framework reached between China and the US [2][7] - The night trading session for oilseeds showed a strong performance, while copper prices declined, reflecting mixed market sentiments across different commodities [3][15]

首席点 评 ： " 硅锂 " 有意， " 钢矿 " 无情 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表：中美原则上达成协议框架。美国 5 月 CPI 同比增 2.4% ，核心 CPI 环比 增 0.1% 、连续第四个月低于预期。美国 5 月 CPI 数据全线低于预期，能源主导整体 CPI 的放缓，汽 车、服装价格均出现下滑，玩具、家电受关税影响更直接的品类价格上涨。特朗普对伊朗核谈判 " 信心 减弱 " ，美将减少驻伊拉克使团规模，布油涨超 5% 。特朗普表示，伊朗方面似乎在拖延。他强调，无 论协议是否达成，伊朗都不会拥有核武器。黄仁勋 GTC 大会表示，量子计算正迎来拐点，计划在欧洲 新建 20 家 " 人工智能工厂 "。 重点品种： 原油、股指、 玻璃 原油 ：夜盘油价上涨 3.37% 。特朗普表示对达成伊核协议信心减弱，以及伊朗方面警告可能打击美军 基地之际，美国方面在北京时间今日凌晨通知美国在中东的人员部分撤离。以色列官员称，以色列国防 军最近几天一直处于高度戒备状态，以防与伊朗的冲突可能升级。 EIA 报告： 06 月 06 日除却战略储 备的商业原油库存减少 364.4 万桶至 4.32 亿桶，降幅 0.84% 。 ...

首席点 评 ： 迸发前的平静 中办、国办：关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见。《意见》提到，推进金 融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展。人民日报头版任正非访谈：国家越开放，会促使我们更加 进步。美商务部长称中美谈判 " 进展顺利 " 。美总统特朗普：洛杉矶骚乱事件是 " 外国入侵 " 。美国财 长贝森特被视作下一任美联储主席的人选之一。此后，美国白宫驳斥媒体关于贝森特可能会是下一任美 联储主席潜在人选的报道。美国 " 稳定币法案 " 本周三程序性投票，为快速立法铺路。 " 稳定币法案 " 若通过，将为美元挂钩代币的监管框架奠定基石。 重点品种： 贵金属、股指、原油 贵金属 ：金银走势分化，黄金延续震荡，白银连续走强。中美高级官员在伦敦展开新一轮贸易谈判， 市场期待相关进展。美国 5 月非农就业新增 13.9 万，超市场预期 13 万，失业率稳定在 4.2% ，工资增 长超出预期，短期降息预期降温，黄金一度回落，而白银在金银比价高位、行情突破走高、经济数据好 于预期的带动下继续走强，金银比价呈现修复。此前美国总统特朗普将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关 税从 25% 提高至 50% ，市场担 ...

首席点 评： 白银闪亮，黑色暗淡 贵金属 ：金银走势分化，黄金延续震荡，白银连续走强。中美高级官员在伦敦展开新一轮贸易谈判。 美国 5 月非农就业新增 13.9 万，超市场预期 13 万，失业率稳定在 4.2% ，工资增长超出预期。短期降 息预期降温，黄金出现回落，而白银在金银比价高位、行情突破走高、已经景气景气好于预期的带动下 继续走强，金银比价进一步修复。此前美国总统特朗普将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25% 提 高至 50% ，市场担忧关税会进一步蔓延至贵金属。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，对美国债务 问题和经济压力的担忧发酵。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈 现更将明显的滞胀态势，不过近期数据所显示关税政策的冲击比担忧中的要小。短期内美联储难有动 作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待关税冲突降温的阶段，而美 联储短期内难有快速降息。黄金长期驱动仍然明确提供支撑，短期内如有有关美国债务问题发酵或是美 联储重新 QE 等动作，或提供反弹动力，整体上呈现震荡态势。白银突破后短期延续强势。 钢材 ： 当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, highlighting the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various markets, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place from June 8 to June 13, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that export controls on rare earths align with international practices [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, adding 60,000 ounces, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [1]. - US non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, surpassing market expectations but marking the lowest growth since February [1][4]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The US non-farm data exceeded expectations, leading to a divergence in gold and silver prices, with gold experiencing a pullback while silver continued to strengthen [2][15]. - Concerns arose regarding the potential spread of tariffs on precious metals following President Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% [2][15]. - The market anticipates a period of consolidation for gold and silver, with long-term support remaining clear, while short-term fluctuations may arise from US debt issues or potential quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][15]. Group 3: Stock Indices - US stock indices showed an upward trend, with low volatility observed in the previous trading day [3][8]. - As of June 5, the financing balance in China increased by 4.599 billion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [3][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a high cost-effectiveness for long-term capital allocation [3][8]. Group 4: Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices rose by 1.71% in the night session, supported by a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories by 4.304 million barrels [10]. - The market is currently influenced by seasonal demand peaks and geopolitical issues, although long-term production increases pose a downside risk to prices [10]. - The potential for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran remains a critical factor to monitor in the crude oil market [10]. Group 5: Domestic and International News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restore relations with China, indicating a potential for increased cooperation in trade and other sectors [5]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported an increase in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, reflecting a rise in shipping costs [7].

首席点评： 夜盘焦煤领涨 国家主席习近平应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平表示，中国人一向言必行、行必果，既然达成了 共识，双方都应遵守。日内瓦会谈之后，中方严肃认真执行了协议。美方应实事求是看待取得的进展， 撤销对中国实施的消极举措。双方应增进外交、经贸、军队、执法等各领域交流，增进共识、减少误 解、加强合作。特朗普表示十分尊重习近平主席，美中关系十分重要。美方乐见中国经济保持强劲增 长。两国日内瓦经贸会谈很成功，达成了好的协议。美方愿同中方共同努力落实协议。欧洲央行将存款 机制利率下调 25 个基点至 2% ，符合市场预期，为连续第 7 次降息。欧洲央行还将主要再融资利率和 边际贷款利率分别从 2.4% 和 2.65% 下调至 2.15% 和 2.4% ，处于 2023 年初以来的最低水平。这是对通 胀放缓以及特朗普贸易战对欧元区经济增长威胁的回应。 重点品种： 煤焦，铝，贵金属 焦煤 / 焦炭：宏观刺激，多头增仓，盘面强势反弹，关注 800 压力。持有现货的产业客户可伺机介入卖 出套保操作。新版《矿产资源法》将于 2025 年 7 月 1 日正式施行的，环保标准更严格。受迎峰度夏补 库影响，短期动力煤现 ...

首席点评： 欧线领涨 美国 5 月 ADP 就业人数增 3.7 万人，为 2023 年 3 月以来最小增幅，预期增 11.0 万人，前值从增 6.2 万 人修正为增 6 万人。数据显示， 5 月份，私营企业仅创造了 37000 个新工作岗位，这是两年多来的最小 增幅，因为自 20 世纪 30 年代以来最严重的贸易战促使许多公司暂停招聘。在美国 5 月 ADP 就业数据 发布后，美国总统特朗普表示，鲍威尔现在必须降息。他还表示"这令人难以置信，欧洲已经降息九次 了"。美联储发布的最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（简称"褐皮书"）显示，美国经济活动自上次报告 以来略有下降，企业和消费者面临政策不确定性上升、物价压力加大的压力，整体经济前景仍显悲观。 重点品种： 煤焦，原油，集运欧线 焦煤 / 焦炭：新版《矿产资源法》将于 2025 年 7 月 1 日正式施行的，环保标准更严格。受迎峰度夏补 库影响，短期动力煤现货上预期迎来暂稳窗口期，此后仍将下行。焦煤供应略有缩减，山西部分煤矿减 产，影响一定产能。但是受到煤矿库存高位拖累，产地未见到情绪上的好转。双焦在低位都有一定反 复，期价到了阶段性低点，等待方向选择。钢厂利润有 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, a decrease of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous March estimates [1] - The U.S. has increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, while maintaining the 25% tariff on imports from the UK [4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 48.3, a decline of 2.1 percentage points from April, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024 [5] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - In the coal and coke market, there is a technical rebound due to unverified news, but the overall sentiment remains bearish with no clear reversal drivers [2][23] - The soybean meal market is experiencing weak performance due to trade concerns stemming from U.S. tariff increases, with domestic oil mills ramping up production leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [3][26] - The palm oil market is seeing a seasonal increase in supply, with exports rising by 7% to 11% in early May, but the overall supply-demand balance remains weak [3][24] Group 4: Financial Market Trends - U.S. stock indices showed an upward trend, with small-cap stocks performing particularly well, while domestic indices remain at low valuation levels, suggesting potential for medium to long-term investment [8] - The bond market is experiencing mixed movements, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising to 1.676% amid a stable funding environment [9] Group 5: Metal Market Developments - Precious metals are experiencing upward pressure due to tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions, with market participants closely monitoring the outcomes of trade negotiations [15] - Copper prices are fluctuating due to mixed demand signals from various sectors, while zinc prices are also expected to experience volatility influenced by U.S. tariff developments [16][17] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The corn market is stable with tight supply, while cotton prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand and uncertainties in export orders [27][28]

首席点评： 制造业 PMI 回升 国家统计局公布数据显示， 5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非制造 业 PMI 为 50.3% ，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。新 出口订单指数和进口指数分别为 47.5% 和 47.1% ，比上月上升 2.8 和 3.7 个百分点。调查中部分涉 美企业反映外贸订单加速重启，进出口情况有所改善。美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场 集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从 25% 提高至 50% ，该决定从 6 月 4 日（周三）起生效。对 此，欧盟委员会发布声明称，目前正在就扩大反制措施进行最终磋商。美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 48.5 ，为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，预期 49.5 ，前值 48.7 。美国 5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 终值 为 52 ，初值 52.3 。标普全球称，美国 5 月销售费用通胀达到 2022 年末以来的最高水平。 重点品种： 原油、贵金属、股指 原油： 周末乌克兰袭击俄罗斯推动油价上涨。美国一家联邦法院周三阻止了特朗普所谓 ...

首席点评： 新型政策性金融工具望出台 国内方面：据证券时报，尽管一揽子金融政策举措正在持续发挥政策效能，但考虑到部分领域的结构性 矛盾依然有待解决，新型政策性金融工具仍有出台必要，市场机构预计在二季度落地。新型政策性金融 工具或创新支持稳定外贸和扩大有效投资。在受访专家看来，财政货币政策有望提供配套支持，通过扩 张抵押补充贷款（ PSL）和中央财政贴息支持新工具实施。国际方面：美国联邦巡回上诉法院暂停美国 国际贸易法庭作出的阻止特朗普征收全球关税的裁决，对于暂停期是否会进一步延长，联邦上诉法院尚 在考虑之中。此前，美国国际贸易法院裁定，美国政府4月2日依据《国际紧急经济权力法》发布对多国 加征关税的行政令属越权行为，是非法的，禁止执行相关行政令。市场方面：国内4月份政府债券推动 社融存量同比增幅扩大，工业生产好于预期，工业企业利润增速加快，不过消费增幅回落，房地产投资 降幅扩大，总体仍处于调整转型过程中。当前地产仍未企稳，外部不利影响仍在，央行仍将保持支持性 货币政策，资金面保持宽松，对期债价格仍有支撑，关注后续贸易谈判进展。 重点品种： 国债、玻璃、 集运 国债： 显著下跌， 10年期国债活跃券收益率上行至 ...