Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the missile strike by Iran on a U.S. military base in Qatar, and its implications on oil prices and market sentiment. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as stated by U.S. President Trump, has led to a significant decrease in geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market, resulting in a drop in oil prices and a rise in U.S. stock indices [1][2][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 5.65% in the overnight session following Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which is expected to reduce geopolitical risk [2][11]. - The OPEC+ group may accelerate its production increase plans by about a year, responding to the current market conditions [2][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have retreated due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is influenced by inflation data and ongoing trade uncertainties [3][17]. - Despite long-term support for gold prices, the current high levels have led to hesitation in upward movement, while silver has shown limited upward momentum after a recent rally [3][17]. Coal and Coke - Coal production is recovering as some previously halted mines resume operations, leading to improved market conditions with reduced auction prices and lower overall transaction failure rates [4][23]. - The coke market is experiencing a seasonal decline in iron production, and while there is no immediate reversal in trends, the situation remains volatile due to fluctuating energy prices [4][23]. Industry News - As of the end of May, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [7].

Group 1: Geopolitical Situation - The U.S. President Trump announced that Iran's nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed," aiming to eliminate Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities to curb nuclear threats [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of severe retaliation against U.S. interests in the Middle East, and there are discussions in Iran's parliament about potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz [1][5] - The market is concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East due to U.S. involvement, leading to a bullish opening in Middle Eastern stock markets on June 22 [1] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - U.S. stock indices predominantly declined, with small-cap stocks weakening, while China's major indices remain at low valuation levels, suggesting a favorable long-term investment environment [2][9] - The financing balance in China decreased by 7.479 billion yuan to 1.80918 trillion yuan as of June 19 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices rose approximately 2.5% following U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, with Iran's parliament agreeing to potentially block the Strait of Hormuz [3][11] - The number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. fell to 438, the lowest since October 2021, down by one from the previous week and down by 47 year-on-year [3][11] Group 4: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold and silver prices continued to retreat amid escalating Middle Eastern tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which has not yet made significant moves despite ongoing inflation concerns [4][17] - The market is currently anticipating a potential easing of trade conflicts, but the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to provide long-term support for gold prices [4][17] Group 5: Industry-Specific News - The domestic gold jewelry processing industry faces long-term challenges due to declining marriage and birth rates, which are expected to reduce the rigid demand for gold jewelry [8] - The overall demand for gold jewelry, driven by weddings and childbirth, accounts for over 30% of the domestic gold jewelry market, and a continued decline in this demand could lead to overcapacity in the industry [8]

首席点 评 ： 局势波动， 油价继续上行 商务部召开例行新闻发布会，商务部新闻发言人何亚东：中国一贯高度重视维护全球产供链的稳定与安 全，依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的审查，已经依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续 加强合规申请的审批工作。特朗普据称认为有必要让伊福尔多核设施瘫痪，白宫称两周内决定是否攻击 伊朗。加拿大政府表示，若与特朗普政府的贸易谈判陷入僵局，最早将 7 月 21 日提高对美国钢铁和铝 产品的关税，使其水平与美国更广泛贸易安排的进展相一致。 重点品种： 原油、黄金、股指 原油：夜盘油价继续上涨。以色列与伊朗的军事互袭已经持续一周，目前尚未缓和的迹象。伊朗是欧佩 克第三大产油国，每日产油量约为 330 万桶。但更重要的是 , 每天约有 1900 万桶石油和石油产品通过 霍尔木茲海峡的主要水道，人们普遍担心这场冲突可能会扰乱该海峡的贸易流动。国际能源署数据显 示， 5 月份参与所谓的《联合宣言》的 10 个非欧佩克产油国原油日产量 1445 万桶，比 4 月份日均产量 减少 9 万桶；因而 5 月份整个所谓的 OPEC+ 原油日产量 4221 万桶，比 4 月份日均产量增加 16 万桶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the oil market and the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, on commodity prices, alongside the implications of U.S. monetary policy and economic indicators. Group 1: Oil Market - The SC night market saw an increase of 3.52% in oil prices, driven by ongoing military conflicts between Israel and Iran, with no signs of de-escalation [2][10] - U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 823.231 million barrels, a decrease of 11.243 million barrels from the previous week, while commercial crude oil inventories reached 420.942 million barrels, the lowest since January [2][10] Group 2: Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts within the year, but the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell led to a decline in gold prices [3][16] - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has raised concerns about further geopolitical risks, which may support gold prices in the long term despite short-term fluctuations [3][16] Group 3: Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Chinese central bank announcing eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, which had a muted market reaction [4][8] - The financing balance increased by 5.271 billion yuan to 1.81532 trillion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for long-term capital allocation in the stock market [4][8] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 245,000, aligning with market expectations, indicating a stable labor market [2][10] - The Federal Reserve's stance on inflation suggests that tariffs may lead to persistent inflationary pressures, with expectations of rising inflation in the coming months [5]

首席点 评 ： 局势波动，油价攀升 特朗普称已完全控制伊朗上空，知道哈梅内伊在何处但目前不会刺杀，警告美国耐心在耗尽，呼吁伊 方"无条件投降"，原油一度涨 5% 。美国 5 月零售销售环比下降 0.9% ，创两年来最大降幅；制造业前 景愈发模糊，美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑。日本央行维持利率不变，下一财年起放慢缩表步伐； 日央行行长：过快削减购债规模可能破坏市场稳定，若经济前景符合预期将加息。周二， IEA 在最新 报告中预测， 2025 年全球石油产量将增加 180 万桶 / 日至 1.049 亿桶 / 日，而需求预期仅为 1.038 亿桶 / 日。这一 110 万桶 / 日的供应过剩，将推动全球石油库存在年内持续累积。 贵金属：中东局势升级，黄金走强，市场担心局势进一步升级。特朗普在社交媒体上呼吁伊朗"无条件 投降"，并声称美军"完全掌控伊朗领空"，他还暗示或将派遣美方高层与伊朗接触。以色列上周五凌晨 对伊朗发动大规模空袭，攻击伊朗核设施，伊朗随后对以色列发动报复袭击。美国 5 月零售销售环比下 降 0.9% ，远低于预期的 -0.7% ，上周美国通胀数据表现低于市场预期，关税对通胀冲击要好于此前担 忧 ...

首席点 评 ： 黄金原油价格下跌 中国 5 月"消费升、生产稳、投资软"：社零同比增 6.4% 创 2023 年 12 月来最高增速，规模以上工业增 加值同比增 5.8% ， 1-5 月城镇固定资产投资增 3.7% 、房地产开发投资同比降 10.7% 。报道称伊朗希 望与美国和以色列对话，寻求结束敌对状态，只要美方不参与袭击，愿重返核问题谈判桌，美油一度跌 近 5% 。美加首脑 G7 峰会碰头，特朗普预计"几天"或"几周"内达成美加贸易协议，签署美英贸易协 议。美国参议院版共和党法案建议将债务上限提高 5 万亿美元，比众议院方案高出 1 万亿美元。 重点品种： 原油、黄金、股指 原油： SC 夜盘下跌 1.94% 。伊朗正在紧急发出信号，表示希望停止与以色列的敌对行动，与美国恢复 关于其核计划的谈判。国际能源署执行干事比罗尔在当天早些时候的一份声明中表示，国际能源署正 在"监测"以色列袭击的影响，但"准备在必要时"利用其"超过 12 亿桶的紧急储备 ` "采取行动。欧佩克周 一发布了 6 月份《石油市场月度报告》。欧佩克下调了对明年美国和其他竞争对手石油供应增长的预 测，但在继续增产之际维持石油需求预期不变。 ...

首席点 评 ： 中东风险加剧，原油黄金走强 伊朗发动大规模导弹袭击报复，周末同以色列持续互袭，袭击了包括以总理家庭住所在内目标，伊朗官 员称严肃考虑是否封锁霍尔木兹海峡；以色列袭击伊朗最大天然气田，冲突扩大至油气设施，以军称空 袭伊朗国防部总部、核计划总部及多处石油设施。以总理：如伊朗接受美国要求放弃核计划，以色列愿 停止行动。 WTI 7 月原油期货涨 7.26% ，全周累涨约 13% 。布伦特 6 月原油期货涨约 7% ，全周累涨 近 11.7% 。 COMEX 8 月黄金期货涨 1.48% ，全周累涨约 3.2% 。中国 5 月社融增量 2.29 万亿元，新增 人民币贷款 6200 亿元， M2-M1 剪刀差缩小。国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署中国 （上海）自由贸易试验区试点措施复制推广工作。世界贸易组织 13 日在瑞士日内瓦召开服务贸易理事 会年度第二次会议。中方指出美国"对等关税"误导性叙事和错误逻辑，要求美方切实遵守世贸组织规 则，通过多边合作而非单边措施解决分歧，与各方共同维护全球贸易体系的稳定。 重点品种： 原油、黄金、股指 伊朗和以色列互相发起新一轮军事打击。当地时间 6 月 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and geopolitical events impacting market sentiment, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI both showed a mild month-on-month increase of 0.1% in May, which is below expectations, with core PPI growth reaching a near one-year low, raising expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The financing balance in China increased by 1.82 billion yuan to 1.8066 trillion yuan on June 11, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [2][7] - The US initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, with continuing claims soaring to the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating potential economic weakness [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - In the oilseed market, the EIA forecasts a significant decline in US biodiesel and renewable diesel imports due to tax credit policy adjustments, which may support a slight increase in US soybean oil prices [3] - The May production of Malaysian palm oil reached 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05%, while exports rose by 25.62% to 1.3872 million tons, indicating a robust supply-demand dynamic [3] - Copper prices are under pressure due to low smelting fees and weak demand from the real estate sector, with domestic demand remaining stable in the power and automotive industries [3][15] Group 3: Geopolitical Events - Israel's Defense Minister warned of potential missile and drone attacks against Israel following its strikes on Iran, which could escalate regional tensions and impact market stability [4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and pork products from the EU, extending the investigation period to December 16, 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [5] Group 4: Market Performance - The US stock indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the overall market showing a bullish trend, supported by the principle agreement framework reached between China and the US [2][7] - The night trading session for oilseeds showed a strong performance, while copper prices declined, reflecting mixed market sentiments across different commodities [3][15]

首席点 评 ： " 硅锂 " 有意， " 钢矿 " 无情 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表：中美原则上达成协议框架。美国 5 月 CPI 同比增 2.4% ，核心 CPI 环比 增 0.1% 、连续第四个月低于预期。美国 5 月 CPI 数据全线低于预期，能源主导整体 CPI 的放缓，汽 车、服装价格均出现下滑，玩具、家电受关税影响更直接的品类价格上涨。特朗普对伊朗核谈判 " 信心 减弱 " ，美将减少驻伊拉克使团规模，布油涨超 5% 。特朗普表示，伊朗方面似乎在拖延。他强调，无 论协议是否达成，伊朗都不会拥有核武器。黄仁勋 GTC 大会表示，量子计算正迎来拐点，计划在欧洲 新建 20 家 " 人工智能工厂 "。 重点品种： 原油、股指、 玻璃 原油 ：夜盘油价上涨 3.37% 。特朗普表示对达成伊核协议信心减弱，以及伊朗方面警告可能打击美军 基地之际，美国方面在北京时间今日凌晨通知美国在中东的人员部分撤离。以色列官员称，以色列国防 军最近几天一直处于高度戒备状态，以防与伊朗的冲突可能升级。 EIA 报告： 06 月 06 日除却战略储 备的商业原油库存减少 364.4 万桶至 4.32 亿桶，降幅 0.84% 。 ...

首席点 评 ： 迸发前的平静 中办、国办：关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见。《意见》提到，推进金 融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展。人民日报头版任正非访谈：国家越开放，会促使我们更加 进步。美商务部长称中美谈判 " 进展顺利 " 。美总统特朗普：洛杉矶骚乱事件是 " 外国入侵 " 。美国财 长贝森特被视作下一任美联储主席的人选之一。此后，美国白宫驳斥媒体关于贝森特可能会是下一任美 联储主席潜在人选的报道。美国 " 稳定币法案 " 本周三程序性投票，为快速立法铺路。 " 稳定币法案 " 若通过，将为美元挂钩代币的监管框架奠定基石。 重点品种： 贵金属、股指、原油 贵金属 ：金银走势分化，黄金延续震荡，白银连续走强。中美高级官员在伦敦展开新一轮贸易谈判， 市场期待相关进展。美国 5 月非农就业新增 13.9 万，超市场预期 13 万，失业率稳定在 4.2% ，工资增 长超出预期，短期降息预期降温，黄金一度回落，而白银在金银比价高位、行情突破走高、经济数据好 于预期的带动下继续走强，金银比价呈现修复。此前美国总统特朗普将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关 税从 25% 提高至 50% ，市场担 ...