首席点评：贵金属巨震 当地时间 1 月 29 日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。特 朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔 " 再次拒绝降息 " ，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于 最低水平。特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将 " 干得不错 " ，美联储目前利率 " 高得不可接受 " 。 1 月 29 日，国务院办公厅发布《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，提出聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服 务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费 6 个重点领域，以及演出服务，体育赛事服务，情绪式、体验式服 务 3 个潜力领域，加快培育服务消费新增长点，促进服务消费提质惠民，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。国 际贵金属期货普遍收涨， COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32% 报 5410.80 美元 / 盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98% 报 115.78 美元 / 盎司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铝 贵金属： 贵金属一度大幅下挫，随后震荡回升。近期国际金价持续飙升并迭创历史新高，这是地缘政治格局剧 烈动荡、全球政治经济秩序动摇与流动性环境持续宽松共同作用的必然结果。今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first pause in rate cuts after three consecutive reductions in the second half of 2025. The assessment of economic activity was upgraded to "expanding at a robust pace," indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate and persistent inflation above target levels [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to rise, with international gold prices reaching historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment. The market's concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][15] - The recent FOMC meeting's decision to pause rate cuts has improved concerns regarding employment risks, supporting the upward trend in precious metals. The demand for strategic allocation in precious metals is increasing, with gold and silver ETF sizes expanding [2][15] Group 2: Oil - The SC night market saw an increase of 1.54% in oil prices. The easing of tensions in Venezuela and potential diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to this rise. Venezuela is advancing a comprehensive oil law reform, allowing both foreign and local companies to independently develop oil fields [3][10] - As of January 16, the average daily U.S. crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels year-on-year [3][10] Group 3: Aluminum - The night market for aluminum saw an increase of 1.87%. However, the current upward drivers in the spot market are limited, with the aluminum water ratio declining below 75%. The operating rates of leading downstream aluminum enterprises have also decreased, reflecting weak consumption sentiment [3][19] - Despite a weak short-term fundamental outlook, long-term narratives of low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relative support for aluminum prices [19] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has shown a positive trend in 2026, driven by the technology cycle, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market is transitioning from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth [7] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate aligns with market expectations, and the economic outlook remains uncertain with inflation still relatively high [4][9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar, with President Trump stating that he is not concerned about the dollar's decline, which has led to a drop in the dollar index to a four-year low of 95.7905, down over 1% [1][7] - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of Q4 2025, 275,000 technology-oriented SMEs received loans, with a loan approval rate of 50.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The total balance of RMB loans from financial institutions reached 271.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, with an annual increase of 16.27 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have seen a significant rebound, with gold prices reaching new historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][19] - The market is concerned about the sustainability of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the dollar's credibility and increased central bank demand for gold [2][19] - The expansion of gold and silver ETFs has contributed to the rise in precious metal prices, with silver experiencing larger short-term gains but potential profit-taking pressure, while gold remains more stable [2][19] Group 3 - Oil prices increased by 1.54% following President Trump's comments about potential diplomatic engagement with Iran and easing tensions in Venezuela, where a comprehensive oil law reform is being advanced [3][14] - The average daily production of US crude oil was reported at 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels year-on-year [3][14] Group 4 - The US stock market, particularly the NASDAQ, has shown positive performance, driven by a combination of technological cycles, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [4][12] - The market's transition from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth is noted, with expectations for continued upward movement in the stock market supported by supply-side reforms and policy effects [4][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions and economic conditions on various commodities, particularly precious metals, oil, and stock indices, highlighting the ongoing volatility and strategic investment opportunities in these markets [2][18]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Recent international silver prices have shown significant volatility, with a peak at $117.74 per ounce before retreating below $105, reflecting a daily increase of less than 1% after a prior surge of nearly 14% [1]. - The rise in gold prices to historical highs is attributed to geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and a loose liquidity environment, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][18]. - Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar's credibility, prompting central banks to diversify their reserve assets and increase gold purchases [2][18]. Group 2: Stock Indices - The U.S. stock market has shown positive momentum, with major indices rising and a market turnover of 3.28 trillion yuan, driven by a shift towards profitability and the release of policy dividends [3][11]. - The ongoing economic recovery, coupled with the return of overseas capital, is expected to support a continued upward trend in the stock market, with supply-side reforms likely to boost commodity prices and resource stocks [3][11]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices have experienced fluctuations, with recent comments from President Trump indicating potential diplomatic engagement with Iran and easing tensions in Venezuela, which could impact oil supply dynamics [13]. - The U.S. average daily crude oil production has decreased slightly to 13.732 million barrels, while still showing a year-on-year increase of 255,000 barrels [13]. Group 4: Industry News - The latest statistics from the Ministry of Public Security indicate that by the end of 2025, the number of motor vehicles in China reached 469 million, with new registrations exceeding 30 million for the 11th consecutive year [8]. - The domestic futures market has seen regulatory actions aimed at cooling down trading activities, including adjustments to trading limits and margin requirements for silver and copper futures [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential nomination of Rick Rieder from BlackRock as the new Federal Reserve Chair, with his nomination probability rising from 4% to around 50% following praise from President Trump [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has announced the addition of 14 new futures and options products for specific domestic varieties, aiming to facilitate the participation of foreign traders [1] - Spot gold has surpassed the $5000 per ounce mark for the first time in history, currently up by 0.5%, while silver has increased by nearly 2% [1] Group 2 - Precious metals are experiencing a surge, with international gold prices breaking the $5000 mark and silver surpassing $100, driven by rising geopolitical uncertainties and increased market demand for safe-haven assets [2] - Macroeconomic indicators show easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and continued weak employment, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will maintain a loose monetary policy, supporting the long-term upward trend of gold prices [2] - Silver and platinum, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, are expected to see price increases supported by macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand gaps [2] Group 3 - U.S. stock markets showed mixed results, with the power equipment sector leading gains while the communication sector lagged, and total market turnover reached 3.12 trillion yuan [3] - The increase in financing balance by 3.972 billion yuan to 27.07543 trillion yuan indicates a positive trend in the stock market, driven by technological cycles, policy benefits, economic recovery, and foreign capital inflows [3] - The ongoing supply-side reforms are expected to boost commodity prices and resource stocks, with the stock market likely to continue its upward trajectory [3] Group 4 - The article highlights the tightening supply of copper, with smelting profits at breakeven levels, while overall production remains high despite a slight month-on-month decline [18] - The National Bureau of Statistics reports stable electricity investment and positive growth in automotive production and sales, while the real estate sector remains weak [18] - Global copper supply-demand expectations are shifting towards a deficit due to supply disruptions, with potential for short-term price corrections [18]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent geopolitical tensions and their impact on various commodities, particularly precious metals and oil [1][3][11] - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have reached historical highs due to weakened dollar credibility and increased central bank purchases, particularly Poland's plan to buy 150 tons of gold [3][17] - The U.S. crude oil production has decreased slightly, with an average of 13.732 million barrels per day, while geopolitical developments in Iran and Venezuela are influencing market dynamics [2][11] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of key commodities, noting that synthetic rubber prices have surged, while natural rubber is expected to remain strong due to supply constraints [2][13] - The U.S. economy shows signs of growth, with a GDP growth rate of 4.4% for Q3 2025, and inflation indicators are aligning with expectations, suggesting a stable economic environment [5] - The People's Bank of China is set to inject 900 billion yuan through MLF operations, indicating a continued effort to support liquidity in the domestic market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving multipolar world order, highlighting the geopolitical tensions and their impact on various markets, particularly focusing on commodities like oil, lithium carbonate, and precious metals [1][2][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has officially exited the World Health Organization after a year of submitting its application, which reflects a significant shift in international relations [1]. - Tensions surrounding Greenland's sovereignty have been emphasized, with Denmark firmly stating it will not negotiate with the U.S. on this matter [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - **Oil**: The SC night market saw a 1.22% increase, with geopolitical risks diminishing as Trump adopts a wait-and-see approach regarding Iran. The OPEC report predicts stable demand for oil from member countries, with daily demand expected to rise to 43 million barrels by 2026 [2][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons, with strong terminal demand. However, the price surge may suppress end-user demand in the short term [3][25]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices continue to rebound due to rising geopolitical uncertainties, while silver and platinum are supported by supply-demand gaps. The macroeconomic environment, including easing inflation pressures in the U.S., is expected to support the long-term upward trend of precious metals [4][20]. Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The stock market is experiencing a shift from valuation-driven growth to profit-driven growth, with expectations of continued upward movement supported by supply-side reforms and economic recovery [12]. - The bond market shows a slight increase in long-term yields, with the central bank maintaining a stable monetary policy while indicating potential for further easing [13]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - **Artificial Intelligence**: The core industry scale of AI in China is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025, with significant advancements in humanoid robots and 6G technology trials [9]. - **Agricultural Products**: Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, with expectations of increased production, while domestic pressures on soybean prices remain due to high inventory levels [30]. Group 5: Shipping and Logistics - The shipping index is experiencing downward pressure as Maersk reduces prices to attract cargo ahead of the Chinese New Year, indicating a potential decline in freight rates [34].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals amidst geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors, suggesting a continued upward trend for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold continues to rebound, driven by increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to rising geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Silver and platinum are supported not only by macroeconomic factors but also by supply-demand gaps, with silver experiencing tight supply and robust industrial demand [3]. - The long-term upward trend for gold is expected to persist, bolstered by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, central bank purchases, and heightened geopolitical risks [3]. Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with geopolitical risk premiums decreasing as President Trump adopts a more cautious stance regarding Iran [2][14]. - OPEC's report indicates that global demand for oil from member countries is expected to remain stable, with daily demand projected to increase to 43 million barrels by 2026 [2][14]. Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have decreased by 1.28%, with tight concentrate supply and fluctuating smelting profits impacting the market [20]. - The overall growth in smelting output continues, but the supply disruptions are shifting global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [20]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation pressures are easing, with December's core CPI rebound lower than expected, indicating a potential continuation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3][12]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support the long-term performance of precious metals, as liquidity remains loose [3]. Group 5: Domestic Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission of China plans to focus on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand in 2026, which may influence various sectors [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance water resource management and promote water-saving industries, targeting a significant increase in agricultural irrigation efficiency by 2030 [8].

首席点 评： 现货白银刷新历史高点 德国总理默茨当地时间 19日对联邦内阁通报了与英法等国就美国总统特朗普针对格陵兰岛问题欲加征 关税一事的协商情况，具体细节并未公开。默茨表示，事态很严重，但他不想让事态进一步升级；在被 问及关税相关问题时默茨表示，他不希望加征关税，但如果必要，欧盟成员国将采取此类措施。默茨还 表示，将在21日与特朗普在瑞士达沃斯会面做进一步讨论，德国已经撤回了此前派驻格陵兰岛参加军事 行动的德方士兵。周一（1月19日）纽约尾盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.77%，最终报4676.70美元/盎司， 亚太盘初急剧拉升，北京时间07:32达到4698美元——时隔数日再创盘中历史新高，日内绝大部分时间 持续高位窄幅震荡。COMEX白银期货涨6.49%，最终94.280美元/盎司，亚太盘初显著拉升，01:45涨至 94.705美元，时隔数日也再创历史新高。COMEX铜期货涨1.28%，报5.9055美元/磅，此前连续两个交易 日下挫。现货铂金涨1.55%，报2377.09美元/盎司；现货钯金涨2.13%，报1841.80美元/盎司。 重点品种：贵金属、 碳酸锂 、原油 碳酸锂 ： 碳酸锂主力合约波动较大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical risks are increasing, leading to new highs in precious metals spot prices, with gold surpassing $4650 per ounce and silver rising above $92 per ounce [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing increased volatility, supported by a macroeconomic environment of easing inflation pressures and a weak job market in the U.S. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve strengthens the case for precious metals [4][20] - Gold's long-term upward trend is expected to continue due to factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank purchases [4][20] - Silver and platinum are also supported by supply-demand gaps, with silver facing tight supply and robust industrial demand, while platinum's demand is driven by hybrid vehicle catalysts and hydrogen energy [4][20] Group 2: Oil and Energy - Oil prices increased by 1.48% in the night session, with geopolitical risk premiums decreasing as Trump adopts a wait-and-see approach regarding Iran [2][14] - OPEC reports indicate that global demand for oil from member countries will remain stable at 43 million barrels per day in 2026, with an increase of 600,000 barrels per day expected by 2027 [2][15] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The Malaysian palm oil production for December was reported at 1,829,761 tons, a decrease of 5.46% month-on-month, while exports increased by 8.52% [3][29] - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, which is expected to support oilseed prices [3][29] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that Trump's policies are attracting trillions of dollars in investments into the U.S. [7] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, effective January 19 [8]