首席 点 评 ： 金价上行，双焦强势 据央视新闻，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢说，关于TikTok问题，中国一贯反对将科技 和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化，绝不会以牺牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求 达成任何协议。中美双方就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok相关问题等达成了基本框架共识。8月社会消费 品零售同比增速放缓至3.4%，8月规模以上工业增加值同比5.2%，装备制造业和高技术制造业增势较 好。1-8月全国固定资产投资增长0.5%，制造业投资增长5.1%。1-8月房地产开发投资同比下降12.9%， 新建商品房销售面积同比下降4.7% 。 焦煤： 昨日夜盘双焦主力合约延续强势，焦煤持仓环比明显增加。从上周公布的钢联数据来看，累库 仍由螺纹贡献、热卷库存环比微幅下降，整体表需环比增加、增量主要源于热卷，建材与板材之间进一 步分化，铁水产量快速恢复，将进一步加剧成材的供应的压力，叠加第二轮焦炭提降预期的出现、成材 利润持续走缩、以及同期低位的近远月价差均会对盘面走势形成压力，但以"反内卷"政策为代表的政策 预期、以及尚不能证伪的核查超产影响，亦能对盘面提供支撑，因此判断当前盘面呈高位震 ...

首席 点 评 ： 降息周期即将重启？ 中美在西班牙就有关经贸问题举行会谈。当地时间9月14日，中美双方在西班牙马德里就有关经贸问题 举行会谈。双方将讨论美单边关税措施、滥用出口管制及TikTok等经贸问题。对于TikTok问题，中方将 坚持原则，坚定维护中资企业正当合法权益。涉及中国企业的具体商业安排，必须符合中国法律法规。 商务部就美国对华集成电路领域相关措施发起反歧视立案调查。本次调查自2025年9月13日开始，调查 期限通常为3个月，特殊情况下可适当延长。全球金融市场将迎来"央行超级周"，美联储、加拿大央行 等多家主要央行将公布利率决议。市场普遍预计美联储将首次降息25个基点，以应对疲软的劳动力市 场。英美本周将签署一项"突破性"科技协议，核心内容聚焦人工智能与量子计算合作。中国8月新增社 融2.57万亿元，新增贷款5900亿元，M2-M1剪刀差创四年新低。 重点品种： 黄金、铜、股指 黄金： 黄金高位整理，白银接棒走强。上周公布的通胀数据整体符合预期，8月CPI同比上涨2.9%，较7 月的2.7%小幅上升，环比上涨0.4%，超过部分市场预期。核心通胀同比仍为3.1%，环比上涨0.3%。8月 PPI环比 ...

首席点 评 ： 股指独领风骚，商品蓄势待发 开展北京城市副中心、苏南重点城市、杭甬温、合肥都市圈等10个要素市场化配置综合改革试点。中国商务部：密 切关注墨方提税动向，中方将根据实际情况采取必要措施。美国通胀基本符合预期，8月核心CPI同比增3.1%，环比 增0.3%，持平华尔街预期和7月；美上周首申失业金人数不降反增至26.3万，创近四年新高。欧洲央行连续两次会议 按兵不动，认为通胀压力得到控制；行长拉加德放鹰：欧元区降通胀过程现已结束，贸易不确定性已明显减弱。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃纯碱 股指 ： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指全线反弹，通信板块领涨，市场成交额2.46万亿元。资金方面，9月10 日融资余额增加57.74亿元至23092.69亿元。2025年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗口期，四季度为 提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐步缓和，美联储9月降息概率增加进一步提升人民币资产 吸引力。当前市场处于"政策底+资金底+估值底"共振期，但需适应板块轮动加速与结构分化。科技成长成分居多的 中证500和中证1000指数更偏进攻，波动较大，但可能可以带来更高的回报，而红利 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - China's August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 0.9%. PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.9% [1] - In the U.S., August PPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first decline in four months, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.6%, which was below expectations [1] Group 2: Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the communication sector leading gains and the electric equipment sector lagging. The market turnover was 2 trillion yuan [2] - As of September 9, the financing balance increased by 5.952 billion yuan to 2.303495 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential incremental policies to boost the real economy in the fourth quarter [2][9] Group 3: Commodity Insights - In the dual焦 (coke and coal) market, the main contracts showed strong performance, with a slight decrease in coking coal positions. The overall demand remains weak, but policy expectations may provide support [3][20] - The palm oil market is under pressure, with Malaysia's August palm oil production at 1.85 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.35%, while exports decreased by 0.29% [22] Group 4: Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, launched a special campaign to address online chaos in the automotive industry, focusing on self-inspection by companies and reporting channels [6] - The automotive industry is under scrutiny for online misconduct, with measures to correct violations and expose problematic accounts [6] Group 5: International Relations - Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, emphasizing the need for stable U.S.-China relations and cooperation on global challenges [4]

首席点 评 ：蓄势调整，未来可期 国家体育总局副局长李静提出到2030年，体育产业总规模超过7万亿元。市场监管总局已经及时约谈主 要外卖平台，抵制恶性补贴。美国非农年度修正比预期还差，下修91.1万，美联储降息压力加大，特朗 普政府火力全开。美国最高法院将快速审理特朗普关税案。马克龙任命第5位法国总理，为现年39岁的 国防部长勒科尔尼。原油盘中涨超2%，以色列称精准打击卡塔尔的哈马斯高层、特朗普"批准"。 重点品种：股指、原油、双焦 2 ）国内新闻 股指 ： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指震荡回落，房地产板块领涨，电子板块领跌，市场成交额 2.15万亿元。资金方面，9月8日融资余额增加262.36亿元至22975.43亿元。2025年我们认为国内流动性 延续宽松，同时处于政策窗口期，四季度为提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐 步缓和，美联储9月降息概率增加进一步提升人民币资产吸引力。当前市场处于"政策底+资金底+估值 底"共振期，但需适应板块轮动加速与结构分化。科技成长成分居多的中证500和中证1000指数更偏进 攻，波动较大，但可能可以带来更高的回报，而红利蓝筹成分居多的上证50和沪深3 ...

首席点 评 ： 黄金高歌猛进，能化绿意盎然 中国 8月按美元计价出口同比增长4.4%，进口同比增长1.3%，集成电路和汽车出口增长明显；大宗商品 进口季节性复苏、原油铁矿石铜回升，大豆进口量创历史新高，稀土量减价增，出口价值环比上涨 51%。特朗普称准备对俄罗斯实施第二阶段制裁。美财长称若最高法院维持裁决，将被迫退还半数关 税。贝森特给出"前瞻指引"：美国经济将在四季度"大幅加速"，制造业"不能弹指一挥间建工厂"，批评 美联储政策滞后。一年内第三位法国总理下台，贝鲁未通过信任投票。 重点品种：股指、黄金、原油 海关总署今天对外公布，今年前 8个月，我国货物贸易延续平稳增长态势，进出口总值29.57万亿元，同 比增长3.5%。其中，对共建"一带一路"国家进出口15.3万亿元，增长5.4%，占我国进出口总值的 51.7%。8月当月，我国进出口3.87万亿元，增长3.5%。其中，出口2.3万亿元，增长4.8%；进口1.57万亿 元，增长1.7%。 海关总署统计分析司司长 吕大良：今年前8个月，我国进出口累计增速较上半年加快 0.6个百分点，其中8月当月出口、进口均增长，已连续3个月实现双增长。面对严峻复杂的外部环境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of weak U.S. employment data and geopolitical factors on various commodities, particularly gold, while also discussing the implications for stock indices and oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, which almost guarantees a rate cut in September [1][5]. - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.91% in July, and the central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months [1][6]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Gold**: Gold and silver maintain a strong position due to weak U.S. employment data, confirming the likelihood of a rate cut in September. The market is also unsettled by Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][17]. - **Oil**: OPEC+ countries confirmed an increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, despite geopolitical risks that could affect supply. The weak U.S. employment data reinforces expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][12]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the market showing signs of a potential rebound. The current market environment is characterized by a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom" phase, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook despite short-term volatility [3][10]. Group 4: Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has identified dumping of pork and related products from the EU, leading to preliminary anti-dumping measures [8].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti-circumvention investigation ruling, determining that U.S. exporters circumvented anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fibers by exporting related cutoff wavelength shifted single-mode optical fibers to China. Anti-circumvention measures will be implemented from September 4 [1] - In August, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 54,000, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with a revised figure of 104,000 for July. The ISM services PMI for August was reported at 52, marking the fastest expansion in six months, driven by the strongest growth in orders in nearly a year [1][5] Group 2 - In the dual-fuel market, the main contract showed a strong trend, with a continued decrease in coking coal positions. Steel production from the five major materials decreased week-on-week, while total inventory continued to accumulate, particularly in hot-rolled coil [2][25] - Methanol prices increased by 1.18% in the night session, with a significant rise in the number of imported cargoes arriving at ports. Coastal methanol inventory reached 1.3985 million tons, a historical high, with a week-on-week increase of 99,000 tons [3][14] - In the precious metals market, gold prices fell after a period of consolidation, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. Concerns arose regarding potential import tariffs on silver as the U.S. Geological Survey proposed including silver in a list of critical minerals [4][18] Group 3 - The State Council issued opinions to enhance the potential of sports consumption and promote high-quality development in the sports industry, emphasizing increased financial support and encouraging sports enterprises to go public [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released an action plan for stable growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an average growth rate of around 7% for major sectors from 2025 to 2026 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in job vacancies in the US, which fell to 7.181 million in July, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity and consumer spending [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity across most regions of the US has remained unchanged, with many households' wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [1] - There has been a trend of increasing minimum wage standards across 12 provinces in China this year, with most provinces raising their monthly minimum wage by approximately 8%-12%, resulting in all 31 provinces having a minimum wage exceeding 2000 yuan [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices are rising, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. The reduction in job vacancies is seen as a bullish factor for precious metals [2][17] - The dual-fuel market shows weak performance, with coal inventory increasing and steel production remaining stable, indicating a potential pressure on prices due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][23] - The oil market is experiencing a decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in US inventory levels, with total US crude oil inventory decreasing to 822.493 million barrels [4][12] Group 3 - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's Waller suggests potential interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors [5] - Domestically, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has ruled against US fiber optic exporters, indicating ongoing trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny [6] - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 index, which will take effect on September 19, impacting the composition of the index and potentially influencing market dynamics [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high. COMEX gold futures rose by 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce, with an intraday peak above $3600. COMEX silver futures increased by 0.01% to $41.73 per ounce. Multiple institutions predict that after four months of consolidation, precious metals are likely to enter a new upward trend, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target price for gold at $3800 per ounce [1][2][17] - The recent actions of President Trump attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve officials have caused market unease regarding the independence of the Fed. The US Geological Survey has proposed including silver and other minerals in the 2025 critical minerals list, raising concerns about potential import tariffs on silver. The dovish stance of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, further supporting precious metals [2][17] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices. The overall market for gold and silver is expected to remain strong as the Fed approaches a potential rate cut and amid Trump's interference with the Fed's independence [2][17] Group 2: Stock Indices - The three major US stock indices experienced declines, with small-cap stocks showing significant pullbacks. The banking sector led gains while the communication sector lagged. The market turnover reached 2.91 trillion yuan. As of September 1, the financing balance increased by 35.36 billion yuan to 2.280829 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential incremental policies to boost the real economy in the second half of the year [3][9] - The current market is in a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom" resonance period, indicating a high probability of continued market performance. However, investors should adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Indices with a higher proportion of technology growth stocks, such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, are more aggressive and volatile, while indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, which are more defensive, may have relatively weaker price elasticity [3][9] Group 3: Copper and Other Metals - Copper prices rose in the overnight session, driven by tight supply of concentrates and high growth in smelting output. The National Bureau of Statistics reported positive growth in the electricity sector, with significant increases in photovoltaic installations. However, the automotive and home appliance sectors are showing signs of slowing growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to mixed factors [3][18] - Zinc prices also increased overnight, with processing fees for zinc concentrates recovering and smelting profits turning positive. However, the construction investment growth remains weak, and the overall supply-demand balance may tilt towards surplus in the short term, leading to potential weakness in zinc prices [3][19]