首席点评： 非农数据大超预期，美股持续回落 乌克兰称泽连斯基已收到美和平计划草案，将与特朗普通话磋商解决方案，盘中涨超 1% 的原油转跌；美俄被曝闭门会谈 敲定俄乌和平方案，方案要求乌克兰放弃领土，俄方否认有新进展。中国 LPR 连续六个月维持不变： 11 月 5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5% ， 1 年期 LPR 为 3% 。美国 9 月非农新增就业人口 11.9 万大超预期，前两月就业人口被大幅下修 3.3 万，失 业率意外升至 4.4% 创四年新高；"新美联储通讯社"： 9 月就业报告无助化解联储内部分歧；美国上周首次申请失业救济人 数超预期回落至 22 万，续请人数四年来最高。 重点品种：股指、原油、铜 股指：股指回落，建筑材料板块领涨，美容护理板块领跌，市场成交额 1.72 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 19 日融资余额 减少 45.76 亿元至 24803.25 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长期方向。 11 月以来"权重走强、 成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科技业绩落地、小盘股完成补 跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动 ...

阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至 11 月 17 日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为 2065.2 万桶， 较一周前减少 115.9 万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存减少 56.2 万桶至 722.5 万桶，中质馏分油库存增加 17.6 万桶至 318.8 万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存减少 77.3 万桶至 1023.9 万桶。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示 : 俄罗斯 2025 年石油产量预测维 持不变，为 5.1 亿吨。俄罗斯不计划主动减少石油产量，将坚持欧佩克 + 协议。中金公司拟吸收合并东兴证券、信达 证券，作为代表国家意志的金融平台，汇金公司推动券商股整合是落实国家金融战略重要举措。 首席点评： 俄罗斯不计划主动减少石油产量 重点品种：股指、原油、甲醇 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指分化，有色金属和石油石化板块领涨，综合和房地产板块领跌，市场成交 额 1.74 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 18 日融资余额增加 25.81 亿元至 24849.01 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美 联储降 ...

首席点评： "小非农"有所改善，美股持续回落 美国 10 月 18 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 23.2 万，政府关门致官方报告持续缺席以来首次公布。"小非农" ADP 周度就 业数据：截至 11 月 1 日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少 2500 人。国务院总理李强在上合组织会议上表示， 高额关税等经贸壁垒增多使国际经贸秩序受到严重冲击，呼吁各方拥抱自由贸易、减少壁垒。他强调上合组织应强化安全 合作机制，推动科技交流，反对人为阻碍科技发展，并倡议建立新能源等合作机制，扩大中国－上合组织在金融、科技等 领域的协作平台。国家统计局公布数据， 10 月份，不包含在校生，全国城镇 16-24 岁劳动力失业率为 17.3% ， 25-29 岁劳 动力失业率为 7.2% ， 30-59 岁劳动力失业率为 3.8% 。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃纯碱 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指回调为主，传媒和计算机板块领涨，煤炭和电力设备板块领跌，市场成交 额 1.95 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 17 日融资余额增加 76.21 亿元至 24823.20 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方 ...

首席点评： 坚持扩大内需，着力推动市场更具韧性 中国财政部：前10月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长0.8%，支出增长2%，交易印花税收入增长88.1%。1-10月，全国 一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。中德高级别财金对话在京举行，达成多项成果共识，结束贸易紧张局 势。中德高级别财金对话中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与德方牵头人、德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔17日在北 京共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。美联储理事沃勒支持12月降息，副主席杰斐逊强调慎缓慢推进政策。下任美 联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒表示，支持在美联储12月会议上再次降息，原因是他对劳动力市场以及招 聘大幅放缓感到担忧。 重点品种：股指、玻璃纯碱、蛋白粕 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指震荡回落，医药生物和银行板块领跌，计算机和国防军工板块领涨，市场 成交额1.93万亿元。资金方面，11月14日融资余额减少134.56亿元至24746.99亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美 联储降息、人民币升值，外部资金也 ...

中国公布 10 月经济数据，规模以上工业增加值同比增 4.9% 、社会消费品零售同比增 2.9% 、 1-10 月固定资产投资同比降 1.7% 、房地产开发投资同比降 14.7% ；各线城市房价格环比同比下降，一线二手房价格环比降幅收窄至 0.9% ，同比跌幅 扩大。李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施。财政部：有力有效实施积极 的财政政策，坚持扩大内需，支持建设强大国内市场。吴清：抓紧研究谋划"十五五"时期资本市场战略任务和重大举措， 着力推动市场更具韧性、更加稳健，制度更加包容、更具吸引力。 首席点评： 坚持扩大内需，着力推动市场更具韧性 重点品种：股指、原油、蛋白粕 股指：美国三大指数涨跌不一，上一交易日股指尾盘跳水，综合和房地产行业领涨，电子通信行业领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 13 日融资余额增加 40.69 亿元至 24881.55 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块 是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美联储降息、人民 币升值，外部资金也有望流入国内市场。临近年底， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of tariffs on global trade, highlighting that the trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 members is expected to quadruple from the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in the history of WTO trade monitoring [1] Group 1: Trade Measures and Economic Impact - The G20 members are implementing trade facilitation measures in response to the tariff impacts, with the value of these measures doubling compared to the previous period [1] - The report from the WTO indicates that the trade volume affected by tariffs will reach unprecedented levels, emphasizing the urgency for countries to adapt their trade policies [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising nearly 2%, while other commodities like PTA and ethylene glycol saw increases over 1% [1] - The U.S. stock indices experienced a notable decline, with a market turnover of 2.07 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious investment environment as the year-end approaches [2][10] Group 3: Financial Statistics and Monetary Policy - China's social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.83 trillion yuan [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on balancing the pace and intensity of economic support [6][11] Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing a development plan for smart connected new energy vehicles and new battery industries, aiming to expand the application of power batteries [7] - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with Maersk reducing container rates significantly, indicating weaker-than-expected pricing power during the peak season [3][24]

Economic Outlook - Multiple regions are intensively deploying economic measures for the fourth quarter to achieve annual targets, focusing on boosting consumption and accelerating major project investments [1] - Experts indicate that these measures are more targeted and coordinated, which is expected to support steady economic growth in the fourth quarter and lay a solid foundation for a smooth start in the next year [1] Commodity Market Insights Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have strengthened recently, driven by the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, alleviating liquidity risk concerns [2] - The U.S. job market remains weak, with October ADP employment numbers increasing by 42,000, significantly above the expected 30,000, while previous month data was revised to a decrease of 29,000 [2] - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves, enhancing gold's status as a safe-haven asset amid rising distrust in the financial system [2][17] Oil Market - The SC night market saw a decline of 3.39% in oil prices, with Saudi Arabia significantly lowering its official selling price for December to Asian buyers due to increased supply from OPEC+ producers [3][11] - Russian oil exports are expected to decrease due to external impacts on export terminals, but recent attacks on infrastructure may lead to increased exports [3][11] Shipping Index - The European Container Index (EC) has declined, with Maersk's new shipping schedule indicating a reduction in container prices, which is below market expectations for the peak season [3][24] Financial Market Overview Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan, and financing balances increasing by 7.628 billion yuan [10] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with potential inflows from external funds due to the Fed's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the yuan [10] Bonds - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.802%, supported by a net injection of 130 billion yuan by the central bank [10] - The upcoming end of the U.S. government shutdown is projected to reduce fourth-quarter economic growth by 2 percentage points [10][5] Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is expected to remain weak due to the absence of USDA supply and demand reports, with expectations of a downward adjustment in U.S. soybean yield [20] - The cotton market is experiencing downward pressure as the Xinjiang cotton harvest nears completion, with supply pressures expected to persist [23]

首席点评： 央行释放新信号 央行11月11日发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告，释放系列新信号。报告称，国内经济回升向好基础仍需加力巩固。下阶段，央行将进一步深化 金融改革和高水平对外开放，加快建设金融强国，完善中央银行制度，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，畅通货币政策传导 机制。国内期货夜盘收盘主力合约涨跌不一。低硫燃料油(LU)涨近2%，铁矿、燃油涨超1%；跌幅方面，焦煤跌超2%，焦炭跌近2%，乙二醇(EG)、菜粕 跌超1%。 重点品种： 原油、焦煤、欧线 原油：SC夜盘上涨2.11%。欧美对俄罗斯制裁引发冬季燃料担忧，外盘柴油上涨4%。沙特阿拉伯大幅降低了12月份对亚洲买家的原油官方销售价，以应 对OPEC+生产商提高产量带来的供应充足的市场。市场参与者此前预计俄11月份原油出口将大幅下降，理由是风暴和外部对出口码头的影响导致其国内 炼厂原油加工量增加和运输能力下降。但最近图阿普塞港口基础设施遭遇袭击，导致俄石油公司旗下Tuapse炼厂关闭，并可能促使该公司增加原油出口。 整体向下趋势难改。 集运欧线：EC下跌1.87%，12合约收于1746.1点，午后加速走弱，主因在于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent increase in spot gold prices, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, driven by expectations of the U.S. government shutdown ending and potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1][5][18] - Spot gold rose by 2.84% to $4,114.96 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 2.76% to $4,120.60 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend in the gold market [1][18] - The article notes that the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with rebar and iron ore prices slightly increasing, while coking coal and glass prices declined [1] Group 2 - In international news, the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill aimed at ending a 40-day government shutdown, which may lead to the resumption of normal government data releases [5] - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on market liquidity and investor sentiment, suggesting that the resolution may alleviate some of the liquidity risks previously heightened by the shutdown [18] - The article also mentions the release of new policies by the State Council of China to promote private investment, which includes measures to encourage private capital participation in urban infrastructure projects [6] Group 3 - The article provides insights into the oil market, noting a 1.32% decline in SC night market prices, attributed to Saudi Arabia's significant reduction of official selling prices for crude oil to Asia in response to increased supply from OPEC+ producers [3][12] - The copper market is highlighted, with tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, while the overall demand remains weak due to sluggish performance in the real estate sector [3][19] - The article mentions the performance of the shipping industry, particularly the European shipping index, which saw a decline, indicating pressure on freight rates due to insufficient price increases from major shipping companies [2][30]

重点品种： 焦煤、欧线、铜 集运欧线：上周五EC下跌1.79%，12合约收于1812点。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1323美元/TEU，周度环比下降21美元/TEU，基本对应于11.10-11.16期间的 欧线订舱价，反映11月第二周欧线船司尤其是PA联盟运价的下调。周三盘后，马士基公布第47周开舱价，大柜报价2250美元，环比仅小幅上涨50美元， 由于马士基未能如期在11月下半月进一步挺价，年底旺季空间收窄。以今年的货量和运力供给来看，本来市场预期的挺价节奏是11月上半月、11月下半月 以及12月上半月各挺价一次，但目前马士基使得挺价节奏和幅度均不及预期。弱现实下，船司挺价提涨力度有限，尽管马士基同步发布12月涨价函，但旺 季空间受到压制，或已无可博弈的空间，关注后续运价拐点。 双焦：上周五夜盘双焦盘面走势偏弱，焦煤持仓量环比下降。上周钢联数据显示，五大材产量周环比下降，热卷总库存环比小幅增加、螺纹总库存环比下 降，五大材表需环比降幅明显，需求淡季特征出现。上周钢厂盈利率进一步降至40%以下，铁水产量延续下滑趋势，双焦需求环比继续走弱，目前钢材的 弱现实、低利润将制约煤价上行空间，判断短期盘面高位震荡，关注后 ...