Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, now predicting a surplus of 3.73 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the previous month's estimate of 3.69 million barrels per day [1] - The surplus is primarily driven by increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, despite a slowdown in global oil demand growth [1][3] - The IEA has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, indicating that supply growth is outpacing demand growth [3] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen significant declines, attributed to a drop in U.S. tech stocks and a decrease in market risk appetite [2][18] - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, exceeding expectations, which has tempered interest rate cut expectations, although the overall employment market is cooling [2][18] - Despite short-term volatility, long-term factors such as de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases remain supportive for gold prices, with expectations for a return to a steady upward trend [2][18] Group 3: Stock Market Overview - U.S. stock indices have declined, with a market turnover of 2.16 trillion yuan, and a reduction in financing balance by 15.917 billion yuan to 26.27824 trillion yuan [4][11] - February is expected to maintain a phase of positive momentum, supported by seasonal recovery in consumption and the release of policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][11] - However, potential volatility in overseas capital markets during the upcoming holiday period, particularly due to geopolitical risks, should be monitored [4][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Brazil's cotton exports for the 2025/26 season are projected to reach 14.5 million bales, an increase of 1.5 million bales year-on-year, marking a record high for the third consecutive year [1] - The growth in cotton exports is primarily driven by demand from China, Bangladesh, Turkey, and India, with an expected year-on-year increase of 6% [1] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - The COMEX reported a significant drop in registered silver inventory by 3.256882 million ounces, with total inventory falling below 100 million ounces to 98.138005 million ounces [1] - The physical outflow of qualified delivery silver exceeded 4.7 million ounces in a single day, indicating a net outflow from the trading system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in U.S. non-farm employment in January 2026, which exceeded market expectations, and discusses its implications for monetary policy and various commodities [1][6][17]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, far surpassing the expected range of 50,000 to 75,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. - The average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations [6]. Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced high volatility following the employment data release, with a sharp decline as interest rate cut expectations cooled. However, long-term factors such as de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases continue to support prices [2][17]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, indicating ongoing support for gold prices [2][17]. Copper - Copper prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits. The overall smelting output remains high despite a month-on-month decline [3][18]. - Key indicators such as electricity investment and automotive production are showing positive trends, while the real estate sector remains weak [3][18]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed slight declines, with the construction materials sector leading gains and the communications sector lagging. The market's trading volume was 2 trillion yuan [10]. - Financing balances decreased by 3.828 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market outlook as the Spring Festival approaches [10]. Nickel Supply - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce nickel production, with a target output of 260-270 million tons for the year, which is lower than the 2025 target of 379 million tons. This move is expected to have a substantial impact on global nickel supply [1]. Other Commodities - The article also discusses trends in various commodities such as oil, methanol, and rubber, indicating a mixed outlook with some sectors facing supply constraints while others are adjusting to seasonal demand changes [12][13][14][15].

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - API data indicates a significant increase in US crude oil inventories by 13.4 million barrels last week [1] - Indirect negotiations between Iran and the US in Muscat have shown positive initial outcomes, with both parties agreeing to continue discussions [3] - Kazakhstan's oil exports may decline by up to 35% in February due to slow recovery from a fire at the Tengiz oil field [3] Group 2: Agricultural Products - US soybean export inspections decreased by 14% week-on-week but increased by 3% year-on-year, totaling 1,136,099 tons [1] - Cumulative soybean export inspections for the 2025/26 season reached 23,136,299 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.4% [1] - Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 17.4%, up from 11.2% the previous week, indicating ongoing harvest pressure [27] Group 3: Employment and Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data is expected to show an increase of 69,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4% [1] - A significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the previous year is anticipated, which may impact hiring trends [1] - The White House's economic advisor has stated that lower employment data should not cause panic [1] Group 4: Financial Market Overview - US stock indices showed mixed results, with the media sector leading gains while the real estate sector lagged [4] - Financing balance increased by 523 million yuan to 26,475.69 billion yuan as of February 9 [4] - The market outlook for February remains positive, supported by seasonal recovery and policy benefits from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4] Group 5: Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a phase of consolidation as the market awaits US employment and inflation data, which may influence future interest rate expectations [2][18] - The recent volatility in precious metals has been attributed to profit-taking following a rapid increase in prices since January [18] - Long-term factors supporting gold, such as de-dollarization and central bank purchases, remain intact, with expectations for gold to return to a steady upward trend [18] Group 6: Domestic Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain liquidity [8] - The central bank's report indicates that adjustments in residents' asset allocation will eventually return to the banking system, ensuring liquidity stability [8]

Group 1 - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, announced that negotiations with the U.S. in Muscat focused on nuclear issues, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions, pending leadership decisions on the next meeting's timing and location [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman, Jefferson, stated that the current interest rate stance is "fully appropriate" for a stable economy, indicating no immediate urgency to resume interest rate cuts [1] - The FAO reported that global grain consumption is expected to increase by 61.8 million tons or 2.2% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 2.938 billion tons, primarily driven by a 3.0% rise in corn consumption [1] Group 2 - Precious metals continued to rebound, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which cooled rate cut expectations and led to a significant recovery in the dollar index [2][17] - The oil market saw a 1.97% increase in night trading, with ongoing indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Muscat, where both parties agreed to continue discussions without threats or pressure [3][12] - Copper prices rose by 0.6% in night trading, amid tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits, with short-term adjustments expected due to stable electricity investment and mixed performance in downstream demand [18] Group 3 - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with most major contracts declining, while caustic soda and synthetic rubber saw increases of over 2% and 1% respectively [1] - The market is currently cautious regarding various commodities, with a focus on potential adjustments in supply and demand dynamics, particularly in metals and energy sectors [5][10]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 7.419 million ounces (approximately 2307.57 tons) as of January 2026, up by 40,000 ounces (1.24 tons) from December 2025 [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding the forecast of 212,000, indicating increased economic slowdown risks which may reduce energy demand [1] - The ongoing negotiations between Iran and the U.S. regarding nuclear issues have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations of increased oil production from Venezuela [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have rebounded after significant volatility, primarily influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has cooled interest rate cut expectations and strengthened the dollar [2] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, with expectations that it will return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious regarding silver due to its higher volatility compared to gold, and the current gold-silver ratio being relatively low [2] Group 3 - Oil prices increased by 1.83% amid indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S., with both parties agreeing to continue discussions [3] - Kazakhstan's oil exports are expected to decline by up to 35% in February due to slow recovery from a fire at the Tengiz oil field [3] - Copper prices rose by 1.39%, with tight supply conditions continuing, although smelting profits are at breakeven levels [3] Group 4 - The A-share ETF market is experiencing a dichotomy, with mainstream broad-based ETFs facing significant redemptions while thematic ETFs in sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals are gaining investor interest [8]

Group 1 - The article highlights the announcement of 2026 as the "China-Laos Friendship Year," emphasizing the strengthening of bilateral relations and cooperation between China and Laos [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause since June of the previous year, which reinforces market expectations for stable monetary policy [7] - The domestic commodity futures market shows a decline in crude oil and precious metals, with crude oil futures dropping by 0.73% to 460.3 yuan per barrel, and gold futures down by 1.48% to 1096.14 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have experienced significant volatility due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has cooled interest rate cut expectations and led to a rebound in the US dollar index [2][19] - The crude oil market is affected by ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, with expectations of limited progress due to fundamental disagreements [3][14] - The US stock market has seen a decline, with the three major indices retreating, while the overall market outlook for February remains positive due to various supportive factors [4][12] Group 3 - The logistics industry in China shows expansion, with the logistics business activity index for January reported at 51.2%, indicating continued growth [9] - The government has issued a plan for the high-quality development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to establish 60 high-standard production bases by 2030 [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of maintaining good communication between China and the United States, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's willingness to work together with President Trump to navigate challenges in their relationship [1] - The article discusses the fluctuations in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has led to a decrease in interest rate expectations and increased volatility in the market [2][19] - The article notes that crude oil prices rose by 3.32% due to concerns over potential military conflict stemming from disagreements in U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could disrupt oil supply [3][13] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing a phase of recovery, driven by factors such as technological cycles, policy benefits, and economic recovery, with expectations for continued positive momentum in February [4][11] - The article highlights the performance of various commodities, including a slight increase in gasoline inventories and a decrease in crude oil stocks, indicating a mixed supply situation in the energy sector [3][12] - The article mentions the cautious outlook for various commodities, including metals and agricultural products, with specific attention to the dynamics of supply and demand affecting prices [19][20][21][27]

Group 1 - The central government's new policy document aims to anchor agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization, focusing on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing targeted assistance, and ensuring stable income growth for farmers [1] - The document outlines six key areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing regular precise assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, advancing rural construction tailored to local conditions, strengthening institutional innovation, and enhancing the Party's leadership over agricultural work [1] Group 2 - Precious metals experienced a rebound influenced by two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which boosted the dollar index, and a significant short-term increase in precious metals prices, particularly silver, leading to profit-taking and increased market volatility [2][20] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, and it is expected to return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments, while silver prices are anticipated to remain under pressure in the short term [21] Group 3 - The crude oil market saw a 1.78% increase, influenced by geopolitical tensions involving U.S. military actions against Iranian drones and concerns over increased Venezuelan oil exports exacerbating supply surplus fears [3][15] - The domestic retail prices for refined oil have increased, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [10] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with significant fluctuations in the military and banking sectors, while the overall market outlook for February remains positive due to seasonal trends and policy support [4][12] - The financing balance decreased by 6.009 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [12] Group 5 - The international shipping index for European routes increased by 5.22%, with expectations of continued downward pressure on spot freight rates leading up to the holiday season [34]

Group 1 - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature a 9-day holiday aimed at boosting the holiday market, enriching cultural life, and stimulating consumer spending, as outlined in the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" released by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments [1] - The plan focuses on traditional cultural practices, family reunions, shopping, and travel, expanding the supply of quality goods and services to invigorate physical commerce [1] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)," aiming to establish a world-class metropolitan area centered around the capital [1] Group 2 - In the commodities market, the main crude oil contract fell by 4.8% to 450 RMB per barrel, while gold and silver contracts also saw declines of 3.86% and 20% respectively, closing at 1045 RMB per gram and 20600 RMB per kilogram [1] - The decline in precious metals is attributed to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which strengthened the US dollar and led to profit-taking in the market [2][3] - The US crude oil production averaged 13.732 million barrels per day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels compared to the same period last year [4] Group 3 - The US stock market showed a rebound with significant trading volume of 2.61 trillion RMB, driven by a combination of technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, and economic recovery [5][13] - The financing balance decreased by 23.543 billion RMB to 2.698689 trillion RMB, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [5][13] - The overall market outlook for February remains positive, supported by seasonal recovery in consumption and the release of investment projects [5][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's manufacturing market demand has tightened, but production remains in an expansionary phase, with ongoing optimization of the industrial structure. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI stands at 50.1%, while the high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 52%, indicating stable development in these sectors [1] - International gold and silver prices experienced significant declines on January 30, with COMEX gold futures dropping 8.35% to $4,907.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 25.50% to $85.25 per ounce, marking some of the largest single-day declines in decades [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, a sharp decline was observed, with spot silver dropping over 30% and spot gold over 10%. This volatility is attributed to two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, which strengthened the dollar index, and a market correction following a period of rapid price increases [2][19] - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term upward trend for precious metals remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability, which may lead to a high probability of interest rate cuts within the year [2][20] - In the oil market, the SC night market saw a decline of 2.67%. The easing of tensions in Venezuela and potential diplomatic engagement with Iran are noted as factors influencing the market [3][14] Group 3 - The copper market is experiencing a short-term adjustment phase, with prices down 0.47%. Supply remains tight, and while smelting profits are at breakeven, overall production continues to grow [21] - The zinc market also saw a slight decline of 0.23%, with tight supply conditions persisting and downstream demand showing mixed signals [22] - Aluminum prices fell by 2.82%, reflecting weak demand and increasing inventory levels, although long-term support is expected from low inventory and constrained supply [23]