现阶段国足的选择面非常窄。圈定邵佳一，有不得已而为之的 意味。 作者： 伍里川 封图：东方IC 中国足协11月5日宣布，前国脚邵佳一将出任中国男足国家队主教练。这意味着，在一场堪称史上最安静的选帅中，"洋帅路线"发生转向。 过去十年间，国足有过四任"土帅"，其中高洪波两次任职。但总体上，国足选帅是以选聘"洋帅"为第一选择的。在这一背景下，少帅邵佳一脱颖而出。 尽管事先已有些许"剧透"，人们依然感到惊讶。要知道，就在近日，不少业内人士还直言本土教练不过是"陪标"。 坦率地说，此番挂帅国足的邵佳一，和前述四任本土主帅相比，名望和呼声都不占任何优势。很多球迷甚至不知道邵佳一参加了此次竞聘。这和当年高 洪波等人作为热门参选者频频进入公众视线大不相同。不可否认，邵佳一的"上位"，是国足主帅有史以来最低调的一次。 为什么是邵佳一？这是一个问题。 有报道指出，在进入决定国足主帅的关键时期，郭士强带领国篮大打翻身仗的成功案例，让"土帅方案"重新成为管理部门的选择。换言之，"男篮可 以，国足是不是也可以"作为一种逻辑，有了一定的说服力。这种说法不无道理，但尚有待证实。 更重要的原因或许是，现阶段国足的选择面非常窄。圈定邵佳一， ...

经济观察报记者随机询问北京、山西、重庆、广东、浙江等地 的小学生及家长，热衷烂梗的小学生非常多，并且流行的烂梗 很统一，有全国流行的趋势。 作者： 任晓宁 钱玉娟 封图：视觉中国 黑板上写了两排字，左侧是"那咋了"，右侧是"又能怎"。台下的小学生看到后，立刻兴奋了。他们 没想到，自己平时爱说的词，能被老师当作班会主题，进行全班大讨论。 这是今年7月底，河南商丘一所小学二年级教室里发生的场景。班会由二年级老师阿翔发起，她的 初衷是，让孩子们知道，有些词语不能乱讲，否则会伤人。 阿翔举办这场班会，缘自一名小学生的告状。一名二年级女生，帮前排男生捡起地上的本子，男生 不仅不说谢谢，反而说了句"那咋了，本子掉地上了又能怎"。 女生没听懂这几个词，但下意识觉得不是好词，于是找到老师。一开始，阿翔没当回事。当天，另 外几名女生也找她告状，说班里很多同学在说这种词，她们觉得不好。 阿翔去班里调查，几名男生见老师主动询问，非常激动，一边喊着"那咋了""又能怎"，一边在教室 内奔跑。"说烂梗的直接危害不算大，但容易让孩子们养成对什么都无所谓，没有上进心和羞耻心 的心理。"阿翔说，这是她决定针对网络烂梗办一场班会的原因。 网络烂 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the shift from being a "critic" to a "practical manager," focusing on balancing multiple objectives in a complex economic environment [4][2] - Zhu Ning highlights the importance of conveying correct expectations as a crucial public good in the current economic landscape [4] Economic Paradigm Shift - Zhu Ning, known for predicting the Chinese real estate bubble, has developed a new understanding of bubbles and debt in the context of significant economic changes [3] - The establishment of the "Debt Management Department" by the Ministry of Finance aligns with Zhu Ning's advocacy for breaking rigid repayment structures and allowing market risk pricing [3] Global Financial Risks - Zhu Ning identifies three overlapping risks in the global financial system: debt leverage traps, the rigidity of asset bubbles, and non-linear shocks from technological finance [4][10] - He warns that the AI era may lead to a degradation of human judgment and create regulatory blind spots, potentially causing traditional risk management systems to fail [4] U.S. Economic Uncertainty - The current tight funding situation in the U.S. is attributed to a combination of policy expectations, fiscal constraints, and asset valuations, which increases volatility in global risk assets [6] - Zhu Ning points out that the unpredictability of U.S. policies, inflation paths, and the fragility of U.S. stock valuations are significant sources of uncertainty for global economic growth [7][8][9] China's Economic Outlook - Zhu Ning expresses a relatively optimistic view of China's economy, noting improvements in market expectations despite ongoing concerns about deflation [13] - He emphasizes the need for structural responses rather than cyclical judgments, highlighting the importance of resource allocation towards "new productive forces" [13] Policy Recommendations - Zhu Ning suggests a balanced approach to managing bubbles, advocating for controlling their growth, avoiding proactive destruction, and ensuring rapid assistance if they burst [25] - He emphasizes the need for fiscal policies that directly stimulate consumption and rebuild public confidence [25] Non-linear Dynamics in Finance - Zhu Ning discusses the challenges of understanding the current non-linear economic landscape, where traditional predictive models may no longer apply [27] - He warns of the dangers of over-reliance on AI, which can lead to a degradation of independent judgment and the spread of misleading information [29] Investment Strategies - Zhu Ning advises extreme diversification in investment portfolios and a thorough understanding of risk, cautioning against traditional investment behaviors [32] - He highlights the potential for significant volatility in U.S. stocks, particularly due to high valuations and structural weaknesses exacerbated by AI-related bubbles [33]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "door-to-door sports coaching" is driven by the increasing demand from middle-class families who are willing to pay for convenience and professional training for their children, particularly in the context of academic pressures related to physical education assessments [10][11][14]. Group 1: Market Demand and Trends - The market for door-to-door sports coaching is largely fueled by the need for children to improve their physical education scores, especially in preparation for high school entrance exams [14][15]. - Approximately 40% of the customer base seeks to enhance their children's physical test scores, reflecting a growing trend among parents to prioritize sports performance as part of academic success [14][15]. - The service is particularly appealing to busy middle-class families who find it challenging to manage their children's sports training alongside their work commitments [11][12]. Group 2: Business Models and Operations - Companies like Chen Xueli's Beijing Le Shi Sports Technology Co., which operates a platform for sports coaches, have seen significant growth, with over 3,000 coaches registered and services available in more than 100 cities [10][11]. - Coaches are categorized into three groups based on their employment status and qualifications, which helps in managing service quality and customer satisfaction [11]. - The revenue model typically allocates 70% of the earnings to the coaches, with the remaining 30% divided between the platform and its partners [11]. Group 3: Coach Experiences and Challenges - Coaches like Yang Qiao and Tian Longjin report a flexible work environment, allowing them to manage their schedules while earning a decent income, with some earning over 5,000 yuan per month [8][9]. - However, the profession also comes with uncertainties, such as client cancellations and the need for personal liability in case of accidents, which can impact job security and satisfaction [17][19]. - The perception of the profession varies, with some young coaches feeling it lacks stability and formality, leading to potential turnover in the workforce [18]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Regulatory Needs - There is a call for more structured regulations and protections for door-to-door sports coaches, including the introduction of occupational injury insurance and clearer labor contracts [19]. - The industry is evolving, with expectations for better support from government policies to ensure the sustainability and growth of this new employment model [19].

Core Viewpoint - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a significant platform for foreign enterprises to secure large orders, reflecting China's status as the world's second-largest consumer and import market, with substantial growth potential in the future [2][3]. Group 1: CIIE Overview - The eighth CIIE commenced on November 5, featuring participation from 155 countries and regions, with a record 4,108 foreign exhibitors [2]. - The cumulative intended transaction amount from the first seven CIIEs exceeded 500 billion USD, attracting 23,000 foreign exhibitors [2]. - This year's CIIE saw a 23.1% increase in exhibitors from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, with all top ten global automotive brands participating [2]. Group 2: Major Orders and Investments - Cargill, a multinational in agriculture and food, expects to sign contracts exceeding 3 billion USD at this year's CIIE, building on over 30 billion USD in agreements from previous expos [3][5]. - Other companies, such as Syngenta, anticipate signing contracts worth over 1.1 billion USD, while Zhenhua Heavy Industries expects to finalize agreements totaling 390 million USD [3]. - Cargill is also investing approximately 500 million USD in a new grain and oil factory in Nantong, indicating a commitment to meet growing market demands [6]. Group 3: Insights from Participating Companies - Cargill's experience at CIIE highlights the expo as a platform for showcasing innovation and fostering partnerships, with a significant increase in product offerings from 15 to over 100 since the first expo [5][6]. - Klaus-Maffei, a chemical equipment manufacturer, views CIIE as a competitive arena for global industry and technology, leading to new collaborations beyond the expo [7][8]. - Evonik, a specialty chemicals company, launched 11 new products at this year's CIIE, emphasizing the importance of the event for showcasing local strategies and innovations [8]. Group 4: Market Confidence and Trends - The CIIE reflects a growing confidence in the Chinese market, with foreign companies recognizing the benefits of China's improved business environment and high-level opening-up policies [11][12]. - China's economy grew by 5.2% in the first three quarters, positioning it as a key driver of global economic growth amidst uncertainties in international trade [10]. - The trend towards high-end, green, and intelligent transformation in China is accelerating, with companies like Evonik seeing significant market opportunities [12].

Core Insights - The five major tech companies have made significant investments in AI, but their revenue from AI remains limited, primarily coming from cloud services, with each company generating several billion dollars per quarter [2][3][4] - There is uncertainty regarding the monetization of consumer-facing AI products, despite having user bases in the hundreds of millions [2][7] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the total capital expenditure of the five companies reached $127.5 billion, with a commitment to increase investments in 2026 [2][12] - Meta faced intense scrutiny regarding its AI investment returns, with 7 out of 10 analyst questions focusing on AI monetization and profitability, leading to an 11% drop in its stock price [2][12] - Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have established stable revenue streams from AI within their cloud services, with Google reporting significant contributions from its Google Cloud Platform [5][12] Group 2: User Engagement and Product Development - Meta's AI product, Meta AI, has over 1 billion monthly active users, but it has not yet generated direct revenue [8][9] - Microsoft has reported 900 million monthly active users across its AI-enabled products, with the Copilot family having over 150 million active users [9] - Google's Gemini has over 650 million monthly active users, but its revenue remains low, with only $6.3 million generated on iOS [9] Group 3: Future Investment Plans - The five companies plan to continue aggressive investments in AI, with Amazon expected to invest $125 billion and Google projecting capital expenditures between $91 billion and $93 billion in 2025 [12][13] - Meta plans to significantly increase its capital expenditures in 2026, while Microsoft has announced a $100 billion investment for the next fiscal year [12][13] - The majority of these investments are directed towards data centers, power, and chips necessary for AI development [13]

Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from showcasing demos to securing substantial orders, marking a significant step towards commercialization [3][4] - Recent months have seen multiple companies entering the "thousand-unit club," indicating a shift towards real sales and contracts worth billions [3][4] - The demand for humanoid robots is primarily driven by the manufacturing and education sectors, with specific needs emerging that robots can fulfill [6][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in orders is attributed to increased public awareness and the emergence of practical applications in various industries [4][6] - Humanoid robots are no longer just prototypes; they are beginning to be deployed in real-world scenarios, similar to the early days of electric vehicles [4][6] - The industry is witnessing a shift from "demo-driven" sales to "delivery-driven" sales, altering the commercial logic of humanoid robots [4][27] Group 2: Customer Segments - Manufacturing clients are the largest orderers, driven by challenges such as labor shortages and rising costs, making robots a viable solution for repetitive tasks [6][10] - The education sector is adopting humanoid robots through small pilot programs, focusing on their adaptability for teaching and engagement [11][13] - Some orders are being placed by companies for promotional purposes, indicating a diverse range of applications for humanoid robots [13] Group 3: Delivery and Production Challenges - Successful delivery is becoming a critical measure of success, with companies needing to demonstrate their ability to fulfill orders [15][16] - Companies are facing challenges in production and supply chain management as order volumes increase, necessitating robust operational strategies [15][16] - The focus is shifting from merely securing orders to ensuring a complete delivery cycle, including customer engagement and cash flow management [16][17] Group 4: Pricing Strategies and Competition - Companies are exploring aggressive pricing strategies to capture new market segments, with some introducing robots at significantly lower price points [25][26] - The competition is intensifying, with firms investing in sales teams and channel development to effectively market humanoid robots [22][24] - Differentiation in product offerings is becoming essential, with companies developing various models to cater to different market needs [26] Group 5: Future Outlook - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate in 2026, driven by ongoing projects and increased market attention [26][27] - Companies are also focusing on international markets, with plans to expand their distribution networks globally [26]

Core Viewpoint - The successful IPO of Seres (9927.HK) on November 5, 2025, is a significant milestone for both the company and the Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, marking a strong signal of the industry's overall upgrade [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - Seres raised a net amount of HKD 14.016 billion, making it the largest IPO for a Chinese car company to date and the largest globally in 2025 [2]. - The IPO involved the issuance of 100.2 million H shares, with a maximum offer price of HKD 131.50 per share [9]. - The offering attracted 22 cornerstone investors, with total subscriptions amounting to approximately USD 826 million, representing 49% of the total offering [9][11]. Group 2: Global Strategy - Seres is implementing an "A+H" dual-platform strategy to accelerate its global expansion and showcase the core competitiveness of "Chinese manufacturing" in the high-end NEV sector [6][7]. - The funds raised will be allocated as follows: approximately 70% for R&D, 20% for diversified marketing channels and overseas sales, and 10% for working capital [9]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Seres achieved a revenue of CNY 145.114 billion, a year-on-year increase of 305.47%, with a net profit of CNY 5.946 billion and a gross margin of 23.8% [13]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 110.534 billion and a net profit of CNY 5.312 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.56% [13]. Group 4: Technological Innovation - Seres has established a robust technological foundation, including the Seres Super Range Extender and the Seres Magic Cube technology platform, which enhances its competitive edge [15]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, reaching CNY 5.198 billion in the first half of 2025, a 154.9% increase year-on-year [14]. Group 5: Market Positioning - The brand "Wenjie" is positioned as "China's Mercedes-Benz and BMW," reflecting its dual advantages in luxury and technology [15]. - Seres plans to establish 100 brand experience centers in Europe and the Middle East by 2026, along with a comprehensive charging network [15]. Group 6: Industry Impact - Seres' IPO is seen as a pivotal moment for the Chinese NEV industry, indicating a shift towards profitability and competitiveness in the global market [13][16]. - The company's success serves as a model for the transformation of China's manufacturing sector, emphasizing innovation, sustainability, and high-quality development [18][21].

Core Viewpoint - Huayin Securities is experiencing a performance harvest period driven by its technology finance strategy, showcasing significant growth in both revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Huayin Securities achieved an operating income of 1.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 440 million yuan, a substantial increase of 45.66% year-on-year [2][4][5]. - The net profit growth rate significantly outpaced the revenue growth rate, indicating enhanced profitability under the technology finance transformation strategy [2]. Industry Comparison - Among 42 listed securities firms, Huayin Securities' revenue growth rate of 18.08% surpassed the industry average growth of 17.02% in the same period [4]. - The operating income of 1.2 billion yuan set a record for the highest revenue in the same period since the company's listing in 2019 [4]. Strategic Transformation - The impressive performance is attributed to the multi-dimensional strategic layout, with the deep implementation of the technology finance transformation serving as the core growth engine. The company initiated this transformation in 2021, aiming to become a new generation of youthful technology finance company [8]. - The online business coverage capability has significantly improved, leading to explosive growth in wealth management services. The net income from brokerage fees reached 569 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 79.76%, becoming a key pillar for revenue and profit growth [8]. Operational Enhancements - In addition to technological empowerment, the wealth management regional reform and nationwide talent recruitment have injected important momentum into performance growth. The regional reform optimized the layout and resource allocation of wealth management services, enhancing frontline service efficiency [11]. - The nationwide talent pool further strengthened the team's professional capabilities, providing better asset allocation and investment consulting services, which contributed to the steady expansion of client and asset scales [11]. Future Outlook - With the continuous deepening of the technology finance transformation and further expansion of wealth management services, the company is expected to achieve sustained performance breakthroughs. The focus on standardized operations and high-quality services aims to gradually improve market image and provide a practical model for high-quality industry development [11].

Core Viewpoint - Estee Lauder has reported a return to growth in its organic sales, driven by a recovery in the Chinese mainland market and an increase in travel retail business, following five consecutive quarters of declining net sales [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Estee Lauder's net sales reached $3.48 billion, with organic net sales growing by 3%. The company reported a net profit of $47 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of $156 million in the same period last year [2]. - The Chinese mainland market emerged as the fastest-growing region for Estee Lauder, with net sales of $530 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% [5]. - The company's overall sales performance showed a positive trend, with the Americas region contributing the largest share at 33.7%, followed by the EUEM region at 25.9%, Asia-Pacific at 25%, and the Chinese mainland at approximately 15.4% [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The growth in the Chinese mainland market is attributed to strong performance in the fragrance category and effective inventory optimization, with both online and offline channels showing positive results [6][9]. - Estee Lauder's CEO expressed satisfaction with the growth in market share across its entire brand portfolio, indicating that the growth is not limited to a few brands but is widespread [3]. - The company has implemented a significant operational transformation strategy called "Reimagining Beauty," aimed at restructuring, optimizing operations, and increasing investment to drive sales growth [3]. Group 3: Brand and Product Strategy - Estee Lauder's high-end beauty segment has seen positive retail sales growth, with seven brands achieving double-digit growth, particularly the high-end fragrance brand Le Labo, which has expanded its presence in the Chinese market [9][10]. - The sales of fragrances reached $721 million, marking a 14% year-on-year increase, the highest growth rate in nearly three fiscal years [9]. - The restructuring of the brand lineup in the Chinese mainland market has led to a focus on high-margin products, with a notable shift towards expanding the fragrance category [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The management anticipates positive sales performance in the first half of fiscal year 2026, driven by the recovery in global travel retail and the Chinese market [11]. - The company has observed a resurgence in consumer confidence, particularly in the travel retail sector, which is expected to contribute to sales growth during key shopping periods [11].