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全行业面临阶段性亏损 猪价反弹能持续吗?
经济观察报· 2025-11-05 08:34
猪价短期内的强劲反弹势头,会带来生猪养殖业的困境反转 吗? 作者: 邹永勤 封图:本报资料室 "10月以来,猪价快速下跌,全行业面临阶段性亏损。"2025年11月4日,全国生猪养殖龙头企业温氏股份(300498.SZ)在其发布的公告中如是称。 根据中国农业信息网数据,今年以来全国瘦肉型白条猪肉出厂价格指数(下称"猪价")持续下跌,并于10月13日创下了近七年新低,报14.55元/公斤。 但也正是从14.55元/公斤起,猪价开始企稳回升,至11月4日报收于16.17元/公斤,三周时间上涨了11.13%。 那么,猪价短期内的强劲反弹势头,会带来生猪养殖业的困境反转吗? 国信期货农产品分析师覃多贵在接受经济观察报记者采访时表示,从消费端来看,虽然每年11月至次年1月是消费逐步增加的时间段,但消费旺季并不 意味着猪价便会上涨,"考虑到前期仔猪出生情况及二次育肥带来的供应压力后移,预计本轮猪价反弹的持续性有限"。 全行业面临阶段性亏损 Wind平台信息显示,包括温氏股份、牧原股份(002714.SZ)等在内,当前生猪养殖业的上市公司共有7家(不包括新三板)。根据刚刚披露的2025年第三季报, 上述7家猪企第三季度的业绩 ...
专访《日掛中天》导演蔡尚君:“刀锋锐利,是向善的决绝”
经济观察报· 2025-11-05 01:43
Core Viewpoint - The film "日掛中天" (Day Hanging High) explores the complexities of human emotions and moral dilemmas, particularly focusing on the struggles of a woman named 美云, who navigates challenges in love, work, and motherhood against the backdrop of societal changes in Guangdong [2][3][4]. Group 1: Film Overview - The title "日掛中天" is derived from the famous segment "剑合钗圆" in the Cantonese opera "紫钗记," symbolizing reconciliation and the resolution of past conflicts [2]. - The film's lead actress, 辛芷蕾, received the Best Actress award at the 82nd Venice International Film Festival for her nuanced performance [2]. Group 2: Character and Themes - 美云 is portrayed as a complex character who struggles with her past relationships and current realities, embodying the challenges faced by women in contemporary society [3][4]. - The film addresses themes of guilt, sacrifice, and the ambiguity of moral choices, particularly through 美云's interactions with her former lover and current partner [4][16]. Group 3: Director's Vision - Director 蔡尚君 emphasizes the importance of capturing the nuances of daily life and the hidden meanings within human relationships, influenced by the works of Canadian author Alice Munro [8][9]. - The film was intentionally set in Guangzhou to reflect the city's historical transformation and its role as a cultural and economic hub in China [9]. Group 4: Narrative Structure - The narrative centers around a traffic accident that serves as a catalyst for exploring moral dilemmas, reflecting the unpredictability of life and the consequences of human actions [16][17]. - The film's structure allows for a gradual revelation of characters' backstories, encouraging viewers to engage with the emotional depth of the story [12][10]. Group 5: Emotional Climax - The climax involves a pivotal moment where 美云's desperation leads her to a violent act, symbolizing her internal struggle and desire for redemption [24][25]. - The film concludes with an open-ended resolution, suggesting the possibility of reconciliation and new beginnings amidst the characters' shared pain [30].
A股上市险企财报“说”了什么?解码4260亿元净利润背后的周期与突围
经济观察报· 2025-11-04 14:35
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the "Scissor Gap" (SG) indicator, which measures the difference between the year-on-year growth of net profit attributable to shareholders and the year-on-year growth of New Business Value (NBV), indicating who is creating future value and who is realizing profits [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total net profit of five listed insurance companies reached 426.04 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.50%, with a significant third-quarter growth of 68.30% [4][6]. - The performance of these companies shows a divergence between profit growth and stock price movements, with some companies experiencing declines despite strong profit figures [2][4]. Profit and NBV Analysis - China Life and New China Life exhibited a positive SG, with net profit growth outpacing NBV growth, indicating a reliance on existing business profits [5][11]. - Conversely, Ping An and China Pacific displayed a negative SG, suggesting that while NBV is growing significantly, profit realization is lagging, which may indicate future potential as investments mature [5][11]. Investment Strategies - Investment returns are identified as the main driver of profit growth for listed insurance companies, with significant increases in total investment yields reported [6][9]. - Companies are optimizing their asset allocation and duration management to enhance investment returns, with China Life reporting a total investment return of 6.42% [6][9]. Channel Strategy - The article notes a shift in channel strategies from merely increasing manpower to enhancing productivity and customer value, with significant growth in new business value from bancassurance channels [7][10]. - The focus is on improving the quality of sales and customer retention rather than just expanding the sales force [7][10]. Future Outlook - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the economy, with potential improvements in both liability and investment sides [13]. - The current valuation of the insurance sector remains low historically, suggesting potential for upward revaluation as companies improve their net investment yields and maintain cost discipline [13].
研发投入等于三大车企之和 比亚迪的技术护城河有多深?
经济观察报· 2025-11-04 14:35
比亚迪前三季度研发费用437.5亿元,同比大增31%,以持续 技术创新筑牢护城河,重塑全球汽车竞争格局。 作者: 薛致以 封图:图片资料室 中国新能源汽车巨头比亚迪再次用一份硬核成绩单,向市场展示了何为"技术驱动"的真正内涵。 今年前三季度 ,比亚迪营收达 5662.7 亿元,同比增长 13% , 核心经营指标向好趋势明显。 值得一提的是,这家新能源巨头在保持平稳增速的同 时, 前三季度研发费用高达 437.5 亿元,同比大增 31% ,这一数字甚至比同期净利润高出 205 亿元。 若 把视野放大到整个 A 股市场,比亚迪在 5400 多家上市公司中依然稳坐"研发之王"宝座,且较第二名的领先优势扩大至近 200 亿元。这一数据不 仅超越了国内多家头部车企研发投入之和,更较特斯拉同期研发投入高出 109 亿元,展现了中国企业在全球技术竞争中的战略野心。在资本市场追求 短期利润的喧嚣中,比亚迪用真金白银诠释了"研发优先"的长期主义。 在汽车产业这场百年未有之大变革中,比亚迪选择了一条最为艰难却也最为坚实的道路 ——用持续不断的研发投入构筑核心竞争力。纵观国内主流车 企,比亚迪一家的研发投入超过了三家头部车企之和。 ...
“看不懂”的跨国报销单:中企出海差旅费控如何破局
经济观察报· 2025-11-04 14:35
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by Chinese companies in managing cross-border travel expenses, emphasizing the need for effective cost control and compliance with local regulations in overseas markets [1][4][10]. Group 1: Challenges in Cross-Border Travel Expense Management - Companies are struggling with the verification of cross-border travel expense receipts due to language barriers and varying formats, leading to increased operational costs [2][3][6]. - The proportion of pre-market research and business negotiation expenses in overall operational costs has exceeded 20%, prompting companies to reassess their investment returns in overseas ventures [4][10]. - Many companies face compliance risks due to misunderstandings or lack of attention to local regulations, which complicates financial management [10][11]. Group 2: Current Solutions and Strategies - Companies are implementing two main strategies: employing trusted local staff for financial management and setting fixed annual expense limits for overseas travel [7][8]. - Despite these measures, issues persist, such as local financial staff potentially engaging in fraudulent activities and departments exhausting their travel budgets too quickly [8][12]. - To further control expenses, some companies are linking financial department bonuses to the effectiveness of travel expense management [11][12]. Group 3: Technological Solutions and Future Directions - The introduction of SaaS solutions for travel management is seen as a potential way to enhance compliance and cost control, although challenges remain regarding user experience and cost-effectiveness [15][16]. - AI and data-driven approaches are suggested to improve the efficiency of expense verification and compliance management, moving away from traditional reliance on individual judgment [17][18]. - The successful implementation of these technologies will depend on companies' ability to adapt their financial management philosophies to incorporate AI and data analytics [16][18].
星巴克中国易主三问:谁在操盘?花落谁家?价值几许?
经济观察报· 2025-11-04 14:35
虽然这笔并购价格并不贵,但星巴克中国的业务处于竞争劣 势,过去讲的空间叙事不被商业地产买单,产品定价过高,同 时还面临本土咖啡品牌的竞争,过去的红利已变成当前的掣 肘。 作者:郑淯心 封图: 东方IC 出售传闻历时一年, 11月4 日,星巴克公司(SBUX.US)宣布,将其中国业务至多60%的股权售给了博裕投资 (下称"博裕")。星巴克中国的估值 为40亿 美元。 这笔交易的具体合作方式是由星巴克公司即全球总部(Starbucks Coffee Company)和博裕成立合资公司,共同运营星巴克在中国市场的零售业 务。其中, 博裕至多占股60%,星巴克全球总部占股40%。 星巴克仍然是星巴克中国的品牌与知识产权的所有者和授权方,向新成立的合资企业进 行授权,合资公司将支付授权费用。 合资公司将继续以上海为总部,管理运营中国内地超8000家星巴克门店。 首问股东结构 值得注意的是, 星巴克全球总部是合资方的直接主体,而非星巴克中国。 星巴克咖啡公司成立于1971年,由杰瑞·鲍德温(Jerry Baldwin)、戈登·鲍克(Gordon Bowker)和泽夫·西格尔(Zev Siegel)共同创立,并在 美国华盛 ...
偏债混合基金的“遇冷一日”
经济观察报· 2025-11-04 12:20
Core Viewpoint - The current market environment, characterized by declining interest rates, should theoretically favor the development of mixed bond funds, yet recent announcements from two fund companies indicate significant challenges in both new issuance and existing fund performance [2][4]. New Issuance Delay and Existing Fund Liquidation - On November 4, 2025, Shenwan Hongyuan Fund announced an extension of the subscription period for its Shenwan Hongyuan Ningtong six-month holding period mixed fund, while Zhongjia Fund proposed to hold a meeting to discuss the termination of the Zhongjia Youyi one-year holding period mixed fund contract [2][4]. - The Shenwan Hongyuan Ningtong fund, managed by a fund manager with over eight years of experience, failed to complete its fundraising as planned after nearly three weeks, leading to an extension of the subscription deadline from November 7 to November 21, 2025 [4]. - The Zhongjia Youyi fund, which had a peak size of over 500 million yuan, saw its assets shrink to 17 million yuan, a nearly 90% decline, triggering termination clauses due to its status as a "mini fund" [5]. Underlying Challenges - Mixed bond funds are currently facing three core challenges, including underperformance relative to pure equity funds during bull markets and inability to retain risk-averse investors during market volatility [7][8]. - The Zhongjia Youyi fund's cumulative return of 7.73% and annualized return of 1.96% placed it in the middle tier among 978 similar products, indicating a lack of compelling performance to attract or retain investors [7]. - The strategy of mixed bond funds requires a high level of skill from fund managers, as they must balance fixed income and equity investments effectively to avoid underperformance [8][9]. Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, mixed bond funds remain a valuable asset allocation tool, with the key to overcoming current difficulties lying in enhancing fund management capabilities [11]. - The Zhongjia Youyi fund's management has indicated a focus on three main areas for the fixed income portion: potential resumption of government bond trading, the impact of new public fund sales regulations, and inflation expectations in the fourth quarter [11]. - The fund's strategy for the equity portion anticipates a resilient market with structural growth opportunities, particularly in the technology sector, reflecting an effort to improve overall returns [11].
伊利前三季度营收 905.64 亿元,扣非净利首超百亿
经济观察报· 2025-11-04 10:47
前三季度,伊利股份实现营业总收入905.64亿元,同比增长 1.71%;扣非归母净利润首超百亿,达101.03亿元,同比增 长18.73%,经营业绩韧性向上,势头稳健。同期,伊利发布 中期分红预案,拟派发现金红利总额为30.36亿元。 作者: 冯科瀚 封图:图片资料室 伊利股份 于近日发布的 2025 年前三季度业绩报告,向行业再次展示了品类均衡布局、培育创新增长线带来的稳步增长。 财报显示,前三季度伊利 实现营业总收入 905.64 亿元,同比增长 1.71% ;扣非归母净利润首超百亿,达 101.03 亿元,同比增长 18.73% 。 与此同时,伊利 发布中期分红预案,拟派发现金红利总额为 30.36 亿元。 据悉, 自上市以来,伊利已累计实施 25 次分红,分红总额高达 585.66 亿元,连续 6 年分红比率超过 70% 。 奶粉、冷饮、奶酪的新看点 伊利的强者愈强,源于极具韧性的 " 均衡系统 " 。不同于依赖单一品类的传统乳企,伊利的全品类均衡布局不断进阶,在液体乳、冷饮等业务稳居行 业领先的同时,也在关键战略品类上持续实现突破。 其中 ,前三季度伊利的液体乳实现营收 549.39 亿元,作为该公 ...
“失速”与“领跑”:“达链”公司的股价“见顶”了吗?
经济观察报· 2025-11-04 08:38
Core Viewpoint - The performance of "Dachain" companies shows a mixed picture, with some experiencing significant year-on-year profit growth while facing sequential declines, raising questions about whether this is a temporary adjustment or a sign of peak industry conditions driven by AI demand [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, several "Dachain" companies reported impressive year-on-year profit growth: Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) up 260.52%, Xinyi Technology (300502.SZ) up 205.38%, Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) up 124.98%, and Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) up 62.04% [3]. - Despite strong year-on-year growth, the market reacted negatively, with significant stock price declines for many companies, including a combined market value loss of over 140 billion yuan for leading firms in the optical module segment [3][4]. - Sequentially, Shenghong Technology's net profit fell by 9.88%, Xinyi's revenue decreased by 4.97%, and Tianfu Communication's revenue dropped by 3.18% [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The PCB segment, crucial for AI servers, is showing signs of pressure, with Shenghong Technology citing product upgrades and increased labor costs as reasons for its sequential decline [6][7]. - New Yisheng experienced its first sequential revenue drop after nine consecutive quarters of growth, attributed to changes in product shipment schedules [7]. - The liquid cooling segment, led by Yingweike, also faced sequential declines, with revenue down 11.44% in Q3 [8]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Zhongji Xuchuang and Industrial Fulian emerged as leaders, with Zhongji's net profit up 124.98% and Industrial Fulian's net profit surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time [8][9]. - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to continue growing, with significant orders anticipated for next-generation 1.6T products [9][10]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards "Scale-up" scenarios, where high bandwidth connections between GPUs are becoming critical for AI model training [10]. Group 4: Inventory and Financial Pressure - Companies are facing financial pressure due to increased inventory levels, with Industrial Fulian's inventory rising to 164.66 billion yuan, leading to higher short-term borrowings [12][13]. - New Yisheng reported a significant increase in asset impairment losses due to rising inventory write-downs, indicating potential financial risks [13]. Group 5: Shareholder Behavior - There has been a notable increase in shareholding among retail investors, while major shareholders and executives have begun to reduce their stakes, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [14]. - The number of shareholders for New Yisheng surged by 58.46% to 155,300, reflecting growing retail interest in the sector [14]. Group 6: Market Projections - TrendForce analysts predict a 20% increase in global AI server shipments in 2026, with a significant rise in the value of AI servers driven by higher-priced integrated solutions [15]. - The growth rate of ASIC chip shipments is expected to surpass that of GPUs, potentially impacting Nvidia's market share [15].
重组支付出现新方案 *ST宇顺加快并表标的进程
经济观察报· 2025-11-04 02:02
回顾本次交易,*ST宇顺拟以支付现金方式33.5亿元购买中恩云(北京)数据科技有限公司等3家 公司100%股权。此前,*ST宇顺已根据协议支付了第一期暂存交易价款3.35亿元。 按照原本的安排,在标的公司解除在中信银行的股权质押前提下,*ST宇顺应于10月31日前,将第 二期暂存交易价款30.15亿元支付至监管账户。 根据现有规则,*ST宇顺可能凭借本次收购提前"摘帽脱星", 而非须等到明年的年报披露季。 作者: 黄一帆 封图:图虫创意 自*ST宇顺(002289.SZ)重大资产重组事项获得股东会通过后,市场最为关心的问题就是股权对 价付款的进度。*ST宇顺付款节奏的快慢,直接决定了标的股权交割的时间,从而最终影响并表的 时点。 11月3日,*ST宇顺公告称,当天董事会召开紧急会议,经审议,同意与交易对手签订《支付现金 购买资产协议之备忘录》(以下简称"《备忘录》")并生效。该《备忘录》延长了第二期暂存交易 价款支付期限至2025年11月25日,明确债权债务处理等事项。 但实际上,投资者在10月31日原定付款期限前并未等来付款成功的消息。"从此前公司披露的协 议,可能是中恩云的股权解押环节出了问题。"一位投资 ...