Core Insights - GPT-5 is expected to be released in the summer of 2025, integrating existing model functionalities [2] - Marvell has raised its market expectations for the data center potential market size from $75 billion in 2024 to $94 billion in 2028 [3] - MiniMax has launched three new products, including a text reasoning model, a video generation model, and a general-purpose agent [4] Group 1: GPT-5 Release - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman announced the anticipated release of GPT-5, which will combine the natural language processing capabilities of GPT-4o and the advantages of o3 in coding and scientific reasoning [2] - The model aims to enhance overall performance and may introduce advertising in ChatGPT as a new revenue stream [2] Group 2: Marvell's Market Expectations - Marvell's updated forecast indicates that the custom XPU market is expected to reach $40 billion with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47% [3] - The XPU component market is projected to reach $15 billion with a CAGR of 90% [3] - Marvell also introduced the world's first 2nm SRAM chip, designed to improve custom XPU performance, achieving 17 times the bandwidth density of current mainstream IP products and reducing standby power consumption by 66% [3] Group 3: MiniMax Product Launches - MiniMax introduced the MiniMax-M1, the world's first open-source large-scale hybrid architecture reasoning model, capable of handling 1 million tokens in context input and 80,000 tokens in output [4] - The video generation model Hailuo 02 is noted for its ability to generate complex scenes such as gymnastics and acrobatics, improving training and reasoning efficiency by 2.5 times [4] - The MiniMax Agent is designed for executing long-term complex tasks, supporting multimodal understanding and generation, and can integrate commonly used MCP toolchains [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in spending growth between central and local governments, with central government spending increasing to support domestic demand and safeguard livelihoods, while local government spending is declining. This indicates a proactive fiscal policy aimed at boosting internal demand and ensuring social welfare in the second half of the year [1][2]. Summary by Sections National Public Budget Revenue - In the first five months of 2025, national public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with May showing a slight increase of 0.1% compared to April. This decline is attributed to the need for stronger domestic demand and low Producer Price Index (PPI) levels. Key components include a rebound in personal income tax revenue, a significant increase in value-added tax revenue driven by consumption incentives, and a slight recovery in export tax refunds. However, non-tax revenue has turned negative, potentially impacting local revenues [1]. Central Government Expenditure - National public budget expenditure grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with May's growth at 2.6%, a decrease from April. Notably, central government expenditure rose to 11% in May, while local government expenditure fell to 0.9%. Key areas of growth include technology spending and social security, while infrastructure spending has seen a decline. This reflects the central government's commitment to expanding domestic demand and ensuring social welfare [1]. Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue fell by 6.9% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with May's revenue declining by 8.1%. The weak real estate demand and falling land use rights income have negatively impacted this revenue stream. The government plans to implement measures to stabilize the real estate market [2]. - Government fund expenditure increased by 16% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with May's growth at 8.8%, although this is a noticeable drop from April's high growth. The expenditure is supported by the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds, indicating a solid performance despite the recent slowdown [2]. Active Fiscal Policy - The government has allocated a total of 162 billion yuan in central funds to support consumption incentives, which have already driven sales exceeding last year's total. An additional 138 billion yuan will be distributed in the third and fourth quarters. The focus remains on boosting internal demand and facilitating economic transformation, with expectations of continued proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that pig prices may stabilize before declining towards the end of the year, with a focus on capacity reduction as the current industry theme, emphasizing the importance of price, policy, and disease as catalysts [1]. Group 1: Price Stability and Trends - Year-to-date price stability indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1]. - The pig cycle is defined by the breeding cycle and efficiency cycle, with historical price trends showing that efficiency cycles can lead to price turning points around April and peaks in Q3 [1][2]. Group 2: Price Outlook - The efficiency cycle will still impact prices in 2025, but to a lesser extent than in previous years, leading to a stable to slightly strong price in the middle of the year, followed by increased downward pressure in the latter half [2]. - Historical patterns indicate that piglet prices typically decline around June, and the assumption that hot weather will lead to price drops has not held true in recent summers [2]. Group 3: Industry Capacity and Investment Opportunities - The industry is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which is historically the best-performing stage for pig cycle stocks [3]. - Major stocks within the sector are currently valued at relatively low historical levels, with potential catalysts for price increases including price declines, disease situations, and policy changes [3]. - Investment selection should consider factors such as funding, cost, and growth, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term relative valuation increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - After 2023, there is a noticeable trend of residents' deposits flowing back into wealth management products due to the rapid decline in deposit interest rates, reversing the previous trend of "deposit migration" observed after 2018 [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - Since 2018, there has been a significant shift of residents' wealth back to deposits, which can be seen as a reversal in wealth allocation [1]. - In 2023, the proportion of residents investing in wealth management products has started to rise again, although the rebound is limited, with deposit allocation still maintaining a high level of around 70% [1]. Group 2: Benefiting Products - As funds flow out of deposits, low-risk bank wealth management products (mainly fixed income) and money market funds are the primary alternatives for residents [2]. - Bond funds may attract some capital inflow when the bond market performs well, while the insurance industry is expected to show accelerated growth in 2024, and the trust market has also shown signs of recovery in recent years [2]. - The trend of residents diversifying their investments into various wealth management products is expected to continue, as deposit rate cuts are likely to outpace the decline in interbank market rates [2].

Macro Insights - Stablecoins are not absolutely stable in value; they are subject to technical de-pegging risks and fluctuations in the underlying assets [1] - Not all fiat currencies can support the issuance of stablecoins; the development of stablecoins depends on the acceptance and trust in the underlying fiat currency [1] - The rapid development of USD stablecoins does not weaken the credibility of the USD; instead, it enhances the USD's role and functionality [1] - USD stablecoins provide limited relief to the US short-term debt market, with the Federal Reserve remaining the primary influencer of the overall debt market [2] - The emergence of USD stablecoins does not significantly increase the supply of USD; the Federal Reserve retains control over total USD liquidity [2] - Stablecoins support the RWA market primarily at the transaction level, with the development of RWA ultimately dependent on the quality of underlying assets [2] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend despite recent adjustments, driven by emerging opportunities in new technologies and consumption [4] - The potential for a trend of USD depreciation is increasing, which may benefit Chinese assets, particularly in the context of capital flow and asset pricing [5] - The focus on AI trends in the technology sector is emphasized, alongside recommendations for cyclical industries and high-dividend financial stocks [6] AH Premium Analysis - The historical AH premium has been trending downward, influenced by differences in market structure, liquidity, and industry concentration between A-shares and H-shares [8] - Recent changes indicate a narrowing of the AH premium, with some H-shares trading at a premium compared to their A-share counterparts [9] Commodity Insights - The lithium and cobalt sectors are under scrutiny, with current market conditions showing weak demand and price pressures [11][12] - The cobalt market is experiencing a downturn, with reduced purchasing activity and potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could impact prices [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent divergence between the RMB exchange rate and the US-China interest rate differential, attributing it to the weakening credit of US assets, which enhances the willingness of enterprises to convert currency [3] - The article emphasizes that the future pricing of the RMB exchange rate should consider the credit of the US dollar, suggesting that a weaker dollar environment provides greater liquidity and policy space domestically [3] Group 2 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focuses on global financial governance, extensive financial opening, and the integration of capital markets with technological innovation [7] - The forum highlights the importance of a comprehensive foreign exchange innovation policy to support high-quality development [7] Group 3 - The article identifies six misconceptions about stablecoins, including the belief that their value is absolutely stable and that all fiat currencies can issue stablecoins in large quantities [9] - It also discusses the potential impact of stablecoins on the supply of US dollars and their role in the RWA market [9] Group 4 - The article outlines a trend of Chinese residents moving their deposits back into wealth management products due to declining deposit rates, reversing a previous trend of deposit inflow [11] - This shift indicates a changing landscape in wealth allocation among Chinese residents [11] Group 5 - The article reviews the historical performance of assets during periods of a weakening dollar since 1970, suggesting investment opportunities in foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equities [13] - It highlights the increasing likelihood of dollar depreciation due to misaligned monetary policies and external circulation obstacles [13] Group 6 - The article presents ten investment themes in the Chinese stock market, focusing on frontier technologies, advanced manufacturing, and improving market structures [15][20] - It emphasizes the potential of AI, bioeconomy, 6G communication, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving as key investment areas [16][17][18][21][23] Group 7 - The article discusses the acceleration of capital market reforms, emphasizing the importance of RMB internationalization and capital opening in stabilizing the stock market [29] - It notes that the integration of technology and industry innovation is crucial for future market developments [29]

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of the stablecoin market, highlighting several misconceptions about stablecoins and their impact on global currencies and assets [1]. Misconception 1: Stablecoins Have Absolute Value Stability - Stablecoins are essentially credit extensions tied to underlying assets, meaning their value is not absolutely stable but relatively stable compared to more volatile assets. They can experience technical de-pegging risks and are influenced by the volatility of the assets they are pegged to [5][6]. Misconception 2: All Fiat Currencies Can Issue Stablecoins in Abundance - Not all fiat currencies can support the large-scale issuance of stablecoins. The development of stablecoins is contingent on the acceptance of the underlying fiat currency. The most widely recognized fiat stablecoins may lead to a "winner-takes-all" scenario [8]. Misconception 3: Dollar Stablecoins Undermine Dollar Credibility - The rapid growth of dollar stablecoins does not weaken the credibility of the dollar; rather, it enhances the dollar's status by expanding its functionality and reach. Dollar stablecoins can provide a hedge against currency depreciation in unstable economies [10]. Misconception 4: Dollar Stablecoins Are a Lifeline for U.S. Treasuries - The dollar stablecoin market can only slightly alleviate pressure on short-term U.S. Treasuries, as the short-term debt market is primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve. Dollar stablecoins do not significantly impact the long-term debt market [13][16]. Misconception 5: Dollar Stablecoins Will Significantly Increase Dollar Supply - While the issuance of dollar stablecoins may delegate some monetary authority from the Federal Reserve to issuing companies, it does not lead to a significant increase in the overall dollar supply. The Federal Reserve remains the main regulator of dollar liquidity [18]. Misconception 6: Stablecoins Will Rapidly Develop the RWA Market - Stablecoins primarily support the Real-World Assets (RWA) market at the transaction level, with the market's growth ultimately dependent on the quality of underlying assets. The RWA market is still in its early stages, with a projected total asset scale of approximately $15 billion by the end of 2024 [21].

展望下半年，将依然行业无金融风险、土地市场延续产品代际差导致的结构好、十五五规划下房企谋求新 商业模式的局面。 我们论述过行业支出减少带来的金融风险下降，预计下半年仍然会呈现出和上半年类似 的局面。同时，土地市场仍将持续超预期，尽管土地出让金仍然负增长，但预计幅度会好于预期，核心就 在于产品代际差带来的新房市场持续处于结构性活跃状态，带动房企拿地和政府推地的积极性维持较高水 平。需要重点关注的是十五五规划带来的房企新思考，尤其是头部房企，在新商业模式驱动下，找到超越 行业发展的新思路。 结构性市场，包袱小的企业仍然将取得更明显的优势。 风险提示： 不扩信用背景下，价格企稳的压力仍在。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称：四平八稳，轻装上阵——地产5月观察及数据点评 报告日期：2025.06.19 报告作者： 涂力磊 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880525040101 谢皓宇 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880518010002 陈昭颖 （研究助理)，登记编号： S0880125042226 报告导读： 5月楼市运营延续4月，整体呈现四平八稳状态，结合十五五规划，接下来的 亮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, indicating a pause in monetary policy, while inflation expectations have intensified, leading to concerns about stagflation [2][3] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time since January 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - Economic forecasts were revised downward for 2025 and 2026, with an increase in unemployment rate predictions and a rise in price index forecasts, further exacerbating stagflation concerns [2] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully materialized, suggesting significant uncertainty regarding future inflation [2] - Tariff measures require time to affect consumer prices, and ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East may lead to rising energy prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [2][3] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance remains hawkish, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unchanged from March, but the forecast for 2026 was reduced from two cuts to one [2] - The number of Fed officials predicting no rate cuts in 2025 increased from four to seven, indicating a more hawkish outlook overall [2] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the June FOMC meeting, the U.S. stock and bond markets exhibited characteristics of stagflation trading, with expectations of further development in this trend in the short term [4] - Anticipation of new economic policies, such as tax cuts and debt ceiling increases, could lead to a recovery trading phase in the latter half of the year [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to rise, potentially reaching a phase of 5% if inflation expectations increase due to tariffs [4]