Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data in the U.S. fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data, while the unemployment rate only saw a slight increase. The impact of Trump's immigration policies on the labor market is becoming more pronounced, leading to a divergence between non-farm payroll growth and unemployment rates. Future observations will focus on the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, as concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve may resurface [1][2]. Non-Farm Data - The downward revision of non-farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, raising concerns about data quality. Historical comparisons indicate that the extent of this revision is unusual, suggesting a weakening in the private sector job market [2]. - Despite the significant drop in non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate only experienced a minor increase. This divergence is attributed to the effects of immigration policies, which have led to a noticeable decline in the proportion of foreign-born individuals in the workforce and a decrease in the share of people holding multiple jobs [2]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding monetary policy, balancing between employment conditions and inflation risks influenced by immigration and tariff policies. The July non-farm data is unlikely to alter Powell's hawkish stance, with the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting being a critical point for observing policy statements [2].

Macro Analysis - The US non-farm payroll data for July fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions for May and June, raising concerns about data quality and indicating a weakening private sector job market [4] - There is a divergence between the non-farm payroll data and the unemployment rate, attributed to the impact of immigration policies, which have reduced the proportion of foreign-born individuals in the labor market [4] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between managing inflation and employment, with the July non-farm data likely insufficient to alter Powell's hawkish stance ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting in August [4] Chinese Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is characterized as a "transformation bull," with expectations for further index highs despite recent adjustments [9][10] - Key drivers of this transformation include economic shifts towards new technologies and consumption patterns, as well as systemic declines in risk-free interest rates, which lower the opportunity cost of investing in stocks [11] - Institutional reforms aimed at improving investor returns are crucial, enhancing the market's resilience and reducing risk premiums [11] Investment Themes - Emerging technologies are identified as a primary investment theme, while cyclical financial sectors are seen as potential dark horses [12] - Recommendations include stable and monopolistic sectors such as brokerage, banking, and insurance, alongside emerging growth sectors like internet, media, defense, and innovative pharmaceuticals [12] - The cyclical sector is expected to improve as competition dynamics evolve, with recommendations for materials like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and construction materials [12] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong new consumption sector is currently in a phase of heat digestion after significant gains earlier in the year, with consumer preferences shifting towards experiential and social consumption [17][18] - Historical parallels with Japan suggest that the transformation in consumer behavior towards personalized and rational consumption will continue to evolve in China [18] - The Hong Kong market offers a more balanced exposure to new consumption compared to the A-share market, which is dominated by traditional sectors [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to U.S. tariffs, highlighting that while the theoretical tariff rate has increased by 4%, the actual impact on the economy may exceed market expectations due to potential increases in enforcement and regulatory measures [1][5]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - As of August 7, 2025, the U.S. has implemented new tariffs, with the average tariff rate rising from 10% to a range of 10%-41% for 69 specific economies, averaging 17.7% [2]. - The overall average theoretical tariff rate has increased by approximately 4% compared to June, which is significantly lower than the 15% increase observed from April to May [4]. Trade Agreements - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with major partners, resulting in a reduction of tariff rates for certain countries compared to the previous exemption period [4]. - Notably, countries like Thailand, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka have seen a decrease in tariff rates, indicating potential trade agreements with the U.S. [4]. Enforcement and Regulatory Changes - There is a possibility of increased customs enforcement, which could enhance the economic impact of existing tariffs. The article notes that the actual execution of tariffs has been less stringent than theoretical rates, which may change with new regulations [6]. - The introduction of a unified 40% tariff on recognized transshipment activities suggests a tightening of trade regulations, particularly affecting U.S.-China trade dynamics [6]. Industry-Specific Tariffs - The ongoing implementation of Section 232 tariffs, particularly on steel, aluminum, and automotive products, could significantly impact the U.S. economy, as these products account for about 20% of total U.S. imports in 2024 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The H20 chip has serious security issues, including "tracking and positioning" and "remote shutdown," which may affect domestic manufacturers' procurement willingness and accelerate the trend towards self-controlled computing power chips in China [1][2]. Group 1: Security Issues - The National Internet Information Office of China has interviewed NVIDIA regarding the security risks associated with the H20 chip, particularly its vulnerabilities related to "tracking and positioning" and "remote shutdown" technologies [1]. - The security concerns stem from the U.S. House of Representatives' proposed "Chip Security Act," which mandates that the U.S. Department of Commerce develop implementation rules to ensure chips have feasible location verification technology during export or transfer [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Despite strong demand in the Chinese market, NVIDIA has placed an order for 300,000 H20 chips with TSMC, but the security vulnerabilities may lead to instability in domestic data center operations, potentially causing domestic manufacturers to reduce their original procurement plans [2]. - The trend towards self-controlled computing power chips is seen as inevitable, with the security vulnerabilities of NVIDIA's chips likely accelerating the adaptation of domestic cloud manufacturers to domestic computing power chips [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - There is an expectation of increased procurement controls on the H20 chip within China, which may serve as a catalyst for the shift towards domestic alternatives [2].

RWA是近期金融创新中的革命性突破。 RWA将房地产、国债、商品、私募信贷等真实资产通过数字化与代币化流程映射至区块链之上，提高资产透明度、增 强交易效率、拓宽融资渠道，为全球资本市场注入前所未有的流动性与可组合性。作为连接真实世界与虚拟世界的重要桥梁，RWA正深刻重塑全球资产配置 格局，开启金融科技新时代的基础设施革新。 报告导读： RWA 为全球投资者提升资产配置效率、拓展另类投资渠道提供了全新可能。 预计RWA 将在中国迎来快速发展，成为推动资产配置与财富管理发展的重要力量。 方奕(分析师)S0880520120005 王子翌(分析师)S0880523050004 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 《虚实互通：解析链上真实世界资产RWA》 报告日期：2025-08-01 报告作者： RWA为全球投资者提升资产配置效率、拓展另类投资渠道提供了全新可能。 从资产类别角度看，诸如房地产、林地、艺术品、私募信贷等另类资产，因其与 传统资产的低相关性，具备良好的风险分散效应。然而，由于这些资产通常存在流动性差、信息不透明、投资门槛高等问题，长期以来主要由机构或高净值人 群配置，普通投资者 ...

报告导读： 上海市经济信息化委印发《上海市进一步扩大人工智能应用的若干措施》，计 划三年内发放" 6 亿算力券 +3 亿模型券 +1 亿语料券"，国内 AI 应用产业发展进一步加 速。 投资建议： 7 月 28 日，上海市经济信息化委印发《上海市进一步扩大人工智能应用的若干措施》，计划在三年内发放 6 亿元算力券 +3 亿元模型券 +1 亿 元语料券， 这一政策将产生显著的链式反应， " 算力 - 模型 - 语料 " 全链条支持，加速大模型生态集聚，同时服务器、算力调度与 AI 应用等多环节有望 显著受益，国内 AI 应用产业发展进一步加速 ，我们维持计算机板块 " 增持 " 评级。 上海新政围绕算力、模型、语料三大核心要素，推出总额 10 亿元的专项补贴券。 7 月 28 日，上海市发布《进一步扩大人工智能应用的若干措施》， 6 亿 元算力券对租用智能算力的主体给予市级最高 30% 租金补贴，市区协同可实现最多 1 年、最高 100% 补贴，同时对自主算力设施部署项目提供最高 10% 建设支持，直接降低企业研发与应用大模型的硬件成本； 3 亿元模型券聚焦大模型垂类应用，对调用第三方大模型 API 或私有化部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of optimizing position strategies in quantitative frameworks for predicting bond futures, rather than solely focusing on the prediction accuracy of price movements [1][3]. Group 1: Position Strategy Optimization - The study tests various position strategies, including a full position strategy as a benchmark, a threshold-based full position strategy, and a gradual accumulation strategy that incorporates a fuzzy interval filtering mechanism [1][3]. - Continuous trading strategies convert binary probability signals into position adjustment signals, allowing for categorization based on risk preferences, such as risk-seeking, risk-averse, and risk-neutral types [1][3]. Group 2: Model and Market Conditions - The report references a multi-factor model for bond market timing, utilizing recent data to train models for predicting the next trading day, with specific market conditions defined for 2024 and 2025 [2]. - The combination of various position strategies is crucial, particularly in volatile markets, where appropriate strategy selection can significantly enhance overall model performance [3]. Group 3: Performance Insights - Binary full position strategies effectively capture returns during clear trends but come with higher volatility and transaction costs [3]. - Gradual accumulation strategies show lower trading frequency advantages, reducing transaction costs, but may have limited return capture in sideways markets [3]. - Single continuous strategies demonstrate strong performance in volatile markets, with specific strategies like Sigmoid and Atanh showing significant advantages in volatility control, especially for risk-averse investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI declined in July, influenced by seasonal factors and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies aimed at capacity management in key industries, which has led to an increase in raw material prices. Additionally, weak real estate demand has negatively impacted domestic demand [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, while the services business activity index was 50.0%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The marginal decline in manufacturing PMI aligns with seasonal trends, with some regions experiencing supply and demand disruptions due to extreme weather conditions. There is a notable divergence in PMI performance between large and small enterprises [2]. - Production has entered a low season, with demand showing a greater-than-seasonal slowdown. Certain sectors, such as railway, shipping, aerospace, and computer communication, continue to see new orders in the expansion zone, likely due to ongoing equipment upgrade policies. Conversely, sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products remain below the critical point due to insufficient end-demand amid real estate pressures [2]. Services Sector - The service sector remains stable, supported by seasonal factors. The tourism-related industries have seen increased activity due to summer holiday effects, with transportation, postal, and entertainment sectors maintaining high business activity indices. However, real estate and residential services are in contraction zones, indicating weaker performance [3]. - The construction industry has experienced a greater-than-seasonal decline in activity, primarily due to weak real estate demand and a slowdown in fiscal spending on infrastructure projects. Future improvements in construction activity are anticipated, supported by major projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3]. Policy and Investment Outlook - The central political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for sustained macro policy efforts and timely enhancements. The focus should be on three main lines: first, the "anti-involution" policies are expected to adjust supply-side dynamics in certain industries, potentially boosting price levels; second, 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for consumer upgrades will be allocated in July, with remaining funds to be disbursed in October, supporting consumption; third, urban renewal projects are likely to enhance investment, particularly in municipal infrastructure and the renovation of old urban areas [4].

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the five-year plan reflects a flexible and diverse set of goals focusing on innovation, livelihood, and safety, with an emphasis on optimizing industries and transitioning to green production capabilities [1][5]. Group 1: Planning Framework - The five-year plan follows a fixed cycle that includes seven steps: preliminary research, investigation and compilation, suggestions and implementation, drafting, review and approval, mid-term evaluation, and summary evaluation [2]. - The structure of the five-year plan can be divided into three main parts: overall goals, sector-specific discussions, and implementation mechanisms [3][4]. Group 2: Key Features of Recent Five-Year Plans - The main objectives of the five-year plans have become more flexible, with GDP growth targets shifting from fixed values to range targets. The proportion of targets reflecting economic growth has decreased from 33% in the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" to 20% in the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan," while social comprehensive goals have increased from 67% to 80% [5]. - Industry policy focuses on dynamic adjustments between manufacturing and service sectors, with an emphasis on enhancing manufacturing competitiveness and the rapid development of service industries driven by consumer demand and supportive policies [6]. - Major engineering projects are increasingly concentrated in the areas of livelihood, ecology, and infrastructure, with a notable shift in regional focus towards western provinces such as Sichuan, Tibet, and Xinjiang [7].

Core Insights - The潮玩谷子 (trendy toy) sector is experiencing rapid development, with the peak of investment projects in the primary market having passed, yet the number of projects remains relatively stable. The secondary market leaders are intensifying their efforts in related businesses [1] - Despite a decline in the number of investment events in the primary market since its peak, the sector has maintained stability, with 19, 9, and 11 investment events recorded in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, and 11 events noted by July 10, 2025 [1] Investment Landscape - The investment layout in the潮玩谷子 sector can be categorized into three core directions: IP content, derivative products, and platform types. The derivative products direction is the most focused on, with projected shares of 60% for derivative products, 40% for IP content, and 0% for platform types in 2024 [2] - Investment institutions are increasingly participating in the潮玩谷子 sector, with their share of projects rising to 45% in 2024, alongside 45% from industry chain capital and 9% from other investments [2] Valuation Changes of Key Projects - Hitcard's valuation fluctuated, starting at 30 million yuan in 2021 and peaking at 500 million yuan in 2022, before dropping to 150 million yuan in 2024 [3] - Yiqi Culture saw rapid valuation growth, starting at 100 million yuan in 2022 and rising to 500 million yuan by February 2025 [3] - 52TOYS maintained a leading valuation in the sector, increasing from 75 million yuan in 2015 to 4.273 billion yuan by May 2025, with plans to enter the secondary market [3] - KAYOU's valuation reached 900 million USD in 2021, with plans to enter the secondary market as well [3] - Xingyue Holdings maintained a stable valuation of 1.5 billion yuan, also preparing for a secondary market entry [3]