Macro - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan has raised rates by 25 basis points as expected [2][4] - Global commodity prices showed mixed performance, with IPE crude oil futures down 1.1% and COMEX copper up 2.3% [2] - The U.S. job market remains weak but stable, with November non-farm payrolls slightly exceeding expectations, and inflation growth lower than anticipated [3][4] Stock Market - Emerging market stocks underperformed compared to developed markets, with the Nikkei 225 down 2.6% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.1% [3] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.1%, while the emerging market stock index fell by 1.5% [3] Economic Indicators - In the U.S., November inflation growth was significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased [3][4] - Eurozone industrial production showed a year-on-year increase, but manufacturing and services PMI fell short of market expectations [4] Policy Developments - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts, with the new chair expected to be announced in early 2026 [4] - The European Central Bank has maintained interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting, indicating the end of the rate-cutting cycle [4] Fusion Industry - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing significant acceleration in contract awards, particularly in key components like magnets and power supplies [8] - Trump Media Technology has announced a merger with TAE Technologies, valued at over $6 billion, to develop fusion power plants [9] - The U.S. Department of Energy has allocated $87 million to support AI applications in fusion energy research [9] Technological Advancements - Gyro Swin, an AI tool, has improved 5D plasma modeling speed by 1000 times, reducing computation time from days to seconds [10] - Thea Energy has unveiled the core design of its commercial fusion power station, Helios, which aims to provide a low-cost path for fusion energy commercialization [10]

Core Insights - The rise of the "Reward Economy" signifies a new consumption paradigm, acting as a new engine for domestic demand and consumption expansion. This concept refers to consumers purchasing non-essential goods or experiential services within their financial means to gain immediate pleasure, self-affirmation, and psychological healing in response to work and life pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics - The "Reward Economy" represents a significant shift in consumer decision-making logic, differing fundamentally from the traditional "lipstick effect." While the latter involves consumers shifting to cheaper non-essential products during economic downturns, the current "Reward Economy" showcases a more proactive and differentiated consumption behavior, where spending is driven by self-care and psychological well-being rather than merely functional needs [1][2]. Group 2: Drivers of the "Reward Economy" - The recent popularity of the "Reward Economy" is driven by two main factors: 1. Top-down recognition from state media, which acknowledges the value of the "Reward Economy" as a reflection of the public's aspirations for a better life and an important manifestation of released consumption potential [2]. 2. Bottom-up market dynamics, where cultural and creative companies are launching new products that attract market attention [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that "large models + large computing power + large data" is a primary route to achieving general intelligence, with the Scaling Law still holding true as foundational models rapidly iterate [1] - Recent releases of foundational models like Gemini 3.0 and DeepSeek 3.2 indicate a fast-paced evolution in language, visual, and multimodal capabilities, with anticipation for DeepSeek V4/R2 [1] - The demand for AI applications is accelerating, as evidenced by Alibaba's Qianwen APP reaching over 30 million monthly active users within 23 days of public testing, and Tencent's AI investments driving growth [1] Group 2 - The "pan-sinicization" movement is penetrating from government and party sectors into industries, aiming to build a self-sufficient ecosystem, with state-owned enterprises required to replace various information systems with domestic alternatives [2] - The demand side is supported by policies promoting "domestic goods for domestic use," with a focus on enhancing the resilience and security of key industrial supply chains [2] - On the supply side, the China Information Security Evaluation Center updated its guidelines to include new categories for CPU product evaluations, reflecting a push for domestic technology development [2] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs is noted, with the proportion of overseas income in the computer sector showing a fluctuating upward trend from 11.20% in 2019 to 14.75% in 2024, indicating a degree of desensitization to external changes [3] - The overall sentiment towards the computer sector remains positive, with expectations for future market performance despite potential risks related to technology development and policy implementation [4]

报告来源 报告导读： 美护板块 8 月以来回撤较大，头部高成长公司估值回归 20-30x ， PEG 多 在 1x 以内，板块预计触底。林清轩上市在即，定位以油养肤赛道 25H1 业绩翻倍高增。 投资建议： 美护板块为内需成长代表性板块，结构性机会突出，看好美妆个护公司产品创新下的长期成长性，建议自下而上优选存在产品及渠道变化、具备 弹性的标的。 美护板块 8 月以来回撤超 15% ，头部高成长公司估值回归 20-30x ，有望见底回升 。 美容护理板块 2025 年年初受益新消费高景气曾实现较大涨幅，在 6 月初、 8 月末两次冲顶后迎来较大回撤。具体看，申万美容护理指数 2025 年以来最大涨幅为 19% （ 8 月末） ，但 9 月以来随市场风格切换，及 Q3 、双十一部分标的增速放缓影响回撤较大，申万美护指数最大回撤达 17% ，头部标的回撤幅度多在 30% 以上。至 12 月 19 日头部高成长标的 2026E 估 值基本已经回落至 20-30x ，港股标的多回落至 20-25x ， PEG 多在 1x 以内，我们认为板块基本触底。展望 2026 年，我们认为美护板块因产品创新较 多，且国货整体处于 ...

报告导读： 热点主题交易热度整体回落，内需与科技主题轮动，外部风险扰动逐步落地， 国内扩大内需政策预期持续强化。看好： AI 应用 / 商业航天 / 海南自贸 / 内需消费。 主题温度计：热点主题交易热度整体回落，内需与科技主题轮动。 上周热点主题日均成交额平均 6.75 亿元，日均换手率 3.07% ，整体均显著回落。内需消 费与科技主题呈轮动特征，乳业 / 零售 / 食品加工 / 航空等内需主题大涨，有色金属部分品种获得资金净流入，商业航天主题波动加大，算力 / 光通信 / 覆 铜板等 AI 相关主题转跌，海南板块有所走弱。近期美联储降息、日本央行加息等外部扰动因素逐步落地，市场风险偏好有望企稳回升。国内扩大内需政策预 期持续强化，内需成为接力科技主题轮动的重要方向。跨年行情资金从再平衡转向再配置，看好 AI 应用 / 商业航天 / 海南自贸 / 内需消费。 主题一： AI 应用。 国产算力架构能力跃升，应用端产品迭代加速，算力与应用螺旋式发展不断强化 AI 投资叙事。摩尔线程发布新一代全功能 GPU 架构"花 港"，算力密度较上一代提升 50% ，能效提升 10 倍；火山引擎原动力大会发布豆包大模型 1 ...

Market Overview - The market is currently in a weak oscillation state, with both sentiment model signals and moving average strength index indicating a difficult short-term breakout from this oscillation pattern [1][2] - The liquidity shock index for the CSI 300 was 0.41, lower than the previous week’s 0.51, indicating current market liquidity is above the average level of the past year by 0.41 standard deviations [2] - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF decreased to 0.83 from 1.08, suggesting a decline in investor caution regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2] - The average turnover rates for the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All A were 1.05% and 1.60%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity [2] Economic Indicators - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates saw weekly increases of 0.2% and 0.28%, respectively [2] - In the U.S., the non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [2] - China's economic data for November showed a 4.8% year-on-year increase in industrial value added, a 4.2% increase in the service production index, and a 1.3% increase in retail sales [2] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The SAR indicator showed that the Wind All A index broke above the reversal indicator on December 1 [2] - The market score based on the moving average strength index is currently at 170, which is at the 60.6% percentile for 2023 [2] - The sentiment model score is 0 (out of 5), indicating a negative trend model signal and a negative weighted model signal [2] Market Performance - For the week of December 15-19, the SSE 50 index rose by 0.32%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.28%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 2.26% [3] - The current market PE (TTM) is 21.8 times, which is at the 72.7% percentile since 2005 [3] Factor and Industry Analysis - The profitability factor crowding degree continues to rise, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.22, low valuation factor crowding at -0.51, high profitability factor crowding at 0.05, and high profitability growth factor crowding at 0.22 [3] - The industry crowding degree is relatively high in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, power equipment, and basic chemicals, with significant increases in crowding for defense and military industry and commercial retail [4]

研究所 国泰海通 固定收益 债期货系列研究 2026年国债期货策略展望 《多资产的传感器,债市波动的放大器》 -- 2026年用好国债期货等衍生品工具可有效突破收益瓶颈、放大盈利弹性,其中 趋势格局下可借力杠杆博弈单边行情或套保,震荡市中聚焦曲线、跨期及套利等低 风险策略,还可结合地方债、信用债等进行跨品种搭配。 国债期货专题研究 1、国债期货技术分析专题 《从五浪到M顶调整:技术分析视角下的本轮回调》 《从技术指标看,债市止跌有哪些先行指示》 《量价因子在应对突发新闻波动时的表现》 2、国债期货机构行为专题 《国债期货机构行为分析框架》 《再论股债同向:国债期货与权益市场关系进入新阶段》 《TS合约的持仓集中度如何解读》 《"可执行"的国债期货基差交易:三个核心要素》 《国债期货也有"春节效应":基差收窄与曲线变换》 3、国债期货策略探索专题 1套保策略系列 《资金收紧行情下的套保策略:殊途同归,不宜过早入场》 《复盘本轮回调中的套保信用债的三个要点》 《信号、成本和灵敏度:国债期货套保信用债的时机分析》 2套利策略系列 《国债期货跨期价差的倒挂与修复的背后》 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overseas bond market in 2026 is expected to exhibit a pattern of "interest rate decline and credit differentiation within a moderate easing cycle," with emerging market sovereign debt presenting a significant allocation window [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - Global central banks are entering a differentiated easing cycle, with developed economies experiencing a slowdown in growth, while emerging markets maintain a medium to high growth rate of 5-7% driven by supply chain restructuring and manufacturing spillover [1] - Overall inflation in emerging markets has decreased from 5.2% to 4.0%-4.3%, falling faster than in developed economies, creating space for monetary policy easing [1] - The US dollar index, after a 15-year strong cycle, is expected to enter a phase of moderate decline in 2026, leading to a significant alleviation of global liquidity pressure and a trend of funds flowing back into emerging market assets [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Market Sovereign Debt - Emerging market sovereign debt benefits from three key allocation advantages: 1. The debt environment has improved significantly, with no new sovereign defaults since the end of 2023, a continuous decline in corporate default rates, and government leverage ratios significantly lower than those of developed economies, leading to a relatively lighter debt sustainability pressure and upgrades in credit ratings for multiple countries [2] 2. There is a notable yield advantage, with the 10-year government bond yields of major emerging economies rising over 360 basis points, placing them at high levels since the global financial crisis, offering significantly higher nominal and real yields compared to US and European bonds, highlighting strong carry value [2] 3. Geopolitical restructuring and industrial chain spillover are creating structural growth momentum, with countries like ASEAN, India, and Mexico leveraging labor, location, and policy advantages to attract "capacity transfer" from outside China, resulting in a positive cycle of export expansion, accelerated FDI inflows, and alleviated fiscal pressures, thereby improving sovereign credit [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A "core-satellite" allocation framework is recommended, where core positions consist of investment-grade or near-investment-grade hard currency sovereign debt, complemented by medium to long-term structures to benefit from the decline in US Treasury rates and the compression of sovereign credit spreads, providing stable income sources [3] - Satellite positions should include high-yield sovereign debt (BB, single B ratings) and local currency bonds, which can achieve stronger total returns under improved risk appetite, a declining dollar, or stabilizing fundamentals in emerging markets, with a steeper convergence of spreads [3] - Duration allocation can be adjusted based on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path and market volatility, with a focus on countries in Latin America and Asia-Pacific that have stable fundamentals and are at the early stages of a rate-cutting cycle [3] - Policy-wise, the expansion of southbound trading to include brokerages, funds, insurance, and wealth management institutions, along with a shift in RMB internationalization from "cautious advancement" to "promotion," provides institutional convenience for domestic investors' global allocation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global e-cigarette industry is entering a new product life cycle and regulatory enforcement period, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion. Companies with product technology and supply chain competitiveness are recommended for investment [1]. Regulatory Environment - On December 18, 2025, the State Council issued an opinion on cracking down on illegal tobacco activities, emphasizing strict regulation of e-cigarettes. Key measures include comprehensive strengthening of e-cigarette regulation, severe penalties for illegal production, wholesale, transportation, and sales, as well as enhanced efforts against e-cigarettes containing addictive substances [1]. - The policy aims to combat non-compliant e-cigarette exports from the source, accelerating the clearance of excess industry capacity [1]. Market Impact - The leading compliant manufacturer, Smoore International, is expected to benefit from the tightening of industry regulations. The company's vaping business is anticipated to improve due to changes in the regulatory environment in the U.S. and Europe, with further upward adjustments expected by 2026 [1]. - British American Tobacco forecasts a single-digit decline in its vaping business in the second half of 2025, a significant improvement compared to a 13% decline in the first half of 2025, primarily due to strengthened enforcement at federal and state levels in the U.S. [2]. - Sales of the Vuse brand in states implementing e-cigarette product listings increased by 7% [2]. Export Data - According to Chinese customs, the export value of e-cigarettes to the U.S. from May to July 2025 saw significant year-on-year declines of 39%, 67%, and 14% respectively [2].

弱通胀无碍美联储降息。 总体来看，短期内美国通胀压力或仍偏温和，不会成为美联储降息的掣肘。后续需主要关注美国就业市场走向以及新任美联储主席 表态。 报告导读： 11 月美国 CPI 增速明显不及市场预期，政府关门导致的统计数 据失 真或一 定程度上使得通胀增速被低估，数据可靠性和指示意义下降。短期内美国通胀压力或仍偏 温和， 不会成为美联储降息的掣肘。后续需主要关注美国就业市场走向以及新任美联储主 席表态。 11 月美国通胀 数据远低于预期。 11 月 CPI 同比增速 2.7% ，较 9 月回落 0.3 个百分点，远低于市场预期的 3.1% 。核心 CPI 同比也明显回落 0.4 个百 分点至 2.6% 。从结构上来看，住房分项的明显回落是 CPI 增速不及预期的主要拖累。核心商品中，二手车分项环比增速有所回升，但服装、休闲娱乐用 品、电脑等商品分项环比增速回落明显。核心服务中，除租金之外、机票、医疗服务、娱乐服务环比增速也有所降温。 统计失真：或放大通胀降温幅度。 11 月 CPI 增速的超预期回落或并非完全来自于通胀压力的缓解，政府关门所导致的统计数据失真或导致通胀数据被低 估，放大了通胀下滑幅度。第一 ...