8月8日 北京、上海、深圳三地同期线下举行 刘波 于嘉绿 朱军军 黃海 李鹏飞 絕歷史 ┣海场 北京场 深圳场 ● 9:00-9:50 【建材】消费建材研究之道 ● 9:50-10:40 【地产】物业报表与投资逻辑 ● 10:40-11:30 【建筑】建筑拾贝龙头 -- 底部和顶部规律 ● 13:00-14:00 【钢铁】特钢新材料框架梳理 ● 14:00-15:00 【煤炭】煤炭行业30年复盘 ● 15:00-16:00 【有色】能源金属真假拐点判别 ● 16:00-17:00 【化工】民爆行业深度 国泰海通证券 研究所 研究方法论大讲堂 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ● 9:00-9:50 【建材】水泥供改复盘 【钢铁】行业研究框架与投资思路 ● 9:50-10:40 【建筑】从上游产业链视角预判基建投资与实物工作量 ● 10:40-11:30 ● 13:00-14:00 【地产】缩量提质,好房好价 ● 14:00-15:00 【煤炭】煤炭行业研究框架与投资思路 ● 15:00-16:00 【有色】稀土周期研判 ● 16:00-17:00 【化工】化工行业框架培训 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation in the new consumption era, particularly in the beauty and personal care sectors, driven by product innovation and emotional value consumption, contrasting with the previous era dominated by traffic dividends [2][3]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The new consumption wave is characterized by structural product innovation rather than traffic-driven growth, with a focus on emotional value and unique product offerings to meet evolving consumer demands [2][4]. - The beauty sector is experiencing continuous iteration of collagen components, while daily chemical products are upgrading in functionality and emotional appeal, exemplified by products like Zhenjia fragrance laundry detergent and Cold Acid Spirit toothpaste [2][4]. Group 2: Channel and Media Evolution - New channels and media are accelerating product innovation and market penetration, with platforms like Douyin facilitating product testing and brand exposure [3][4]. - Retail formats such as membership stores and warehouse supermarkets are playing a crucial role in product development and consumer engagement, helping brands refine their offerings before broader market launches [3]. Group 3: Opportunities in Traditional Industries - There is a notable trend of product innovation within traditional industries such as daily chemicals, personal care, health products, beauty, snacks, and more, as companies adapt to new consumer needs and market dynamics [4]. - Established brands are facing challenges in responding to rapid market changes, providing opportunities for new brands to leverage insights for product differentiation and market share growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed performance in various sectors, with a decline in prices for steel, cement, and industrial metals, while float glass and thermal coal prices continue to rise. The service consumption sector shows a divergence, with tourism experiencing a decline and the film market showing significant improvement [1][2]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales continue to struggle, with a 20.8% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities. First, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of 17.8%, 15.7%, and 37.0% respectively [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year during the week of July 21-27, supported by the release of the third batch of national subsidy funds [2]. - The film box office saw a significant improvement, with a 49.0% increase week-on-week and a year-on-year growth of 64.8%, attributed to the release of new films during the summer season [2]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - The construction sector remains weak, impacting the construction activity and leading to a decline in steel prices, while float glass prices continue to rise [3]. - Manufacturing activity has slowed down, particularly in the automotive and chemical sectors, while the oil asphalt sector has seen a rebound, indicating some resilience in infrastructure demand [3]. - Industrial metal prices have decreased due to weak demand and the impact of U.S. tariffs, alongside a decline in sentiment regarding the "involution" phenomenon [3]. Group 3: Human Flow and Logistics - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to grow, with a 3.3% week-on-week increase in the Baidu migration scale index and a 21.0% year-on-year increase [4]. - Freight logistics have shown a slight decline, with national highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreasing by 0.9% and 1.4% respectively week-on-week, but still showing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 6.5% [4]. - Sea freight prices have decreased, and domestic port cargo and container throughput have dropped by 5.0% and 8.5% respectively week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in export activity [4].

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) and China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) is entering a practical phase, with expectations for unified management systems, resource synergy, and industrial chain integration to accelerate progress [1][2]. Group 1: Restructuring Progress - The merger between CSIC and CSSC has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, marking a significant step towards the consolidation of the two companies [2]. - The merger aims to eliminate competition between the two entities, enhance scale effects, and strengthen the overall competitiveness and profitability of Chinese shipbuilding in the global market [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Conditions - The global shipbuilding order intake in July was 6.12 million DWT, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 39.94%, while new orders in China were 5.05 million DWT, down 18.16%, indicating a narrowing decline and stabilization of new ship orders [3]. - The global new ship price index for July 2025 was 186.65, showing a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.25%, with signs of price resilience emerging [3]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached 1921 points on August 5, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.55%, suggesting a recovery in freight rates [3].

Macro Environment - In Q2 2025, global macroeconomic pressures increased, with the IMF lowering global economic growth forecasts in April. Luxury consumption in North America saw a narrowing decline in April-May, followed by an expanded decline in June [1] - Swiss watch exports to the US accelerated in Q2 2025, while exports to China decreased, and Japan and Europe experienced a decline [1] - The strengthening Euro impacted luxury companies' revenue, while the depreciation of the Renminbi against the Euro and Yen may affect overseas consumption [1] Mid-Year Performance - In Q2 2025, luxury companies' revenues generally fell short of expectations, with profit realization showing divergence [1] - Most companies experienced a slowdown or negative growth in revenue, with a majority seeing a decline in net profit margins [1] - By region, the Americas showed acceleration, while tourism consumption in Europe and Japan was affected by high base effects, and Greater China remained under pressure, although some brands showed signs of recovery [1] - By brand, Miu Miu led with a 40% increase, while Canada Goose saw significant acceleration [1] Growth Drivers Assessment - The impact of European tourism is expected to continue into Q3's peak season, while North America faces high base effects in Q4, leading to ongoing uncertainty for the year [1] - Price increases have been implemented by Hermès, Kering, and Prada in H1 2025, with single-digit growth rates. Some brands plan to expand price ranges by increasing accessory products (LVMH) and lowering entry-level product prices (Prada) [1] - Companies continue to invest in expenses, with a high direct sales ratio, indicating that positive operating leverage remains a key driver for margin improvement [1] Industry Trend Outlook - Brands such as Gucci, BV, Dior, and Miu Miu plan to launch significant new products for the autumn-winter season [1] - It is anticipated that luxury consumer segments may further differentiate, with high-net-worth customers showing strong brand loyalty, while aspirational customers may shift their preferences from brand-driven to product and cultural value-driven [1] - In Q2 2025, Miu Miu topped the Lyst rankings again, with the top five brands remaining consistent with Q1, although there were changes in rankings, and Burberry and Birkenstock entered the top 20 [1] Stock Prices and Valuation - Year-to-date in 2025, most luxury companies have underperformed compared to the major stock indices, with Burberry and Tapestry significantly outperforming (by 20 percentage points and 59 percentage points, respectively) [2] - The consensus forecast for luxury companies in 2025 indicates an expected revenue growth rate of approximately 1.8% and a net profit growth rate of -2.3%, suggesting that operational leverage impacts will persist in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huawei is exploring a path to build its full-stack AI competitiveness through soft and hard collaborative innovation, transitioning from merely catching up with industry SOTA models to customizing model architectures to better leverage its self-developed Ascend hardware [1][2]. Group 1: AI Development Strategy - Huawei's AI development strategy has shifted towards a dual evolution path that addresses systemic issues in the large-scale application of AI models, focusing on a technology system composed of hardware-software collaborative architecture, operators, and software stacks [1]. - The evolution of the Pangu large model aims to solve efficiency challenges in large-scale distributed systems, particularly addressing the systemic bottleneck of expert load imbalance in the transition from dense architectures to mixture of experts (MoE) sparse architectures [1][2]. Group 2: Innovative Paths for Large Models - Huawei has launched two innovative paths at the large model level: Pangu Pro MoE, which introduces a grouped expert mixture (MoGE) architecture to tackle load imbalance, and Pangu Ultra MoE, which optimizes model architecture through system-level enhancements to better adapt to Ascend hardware [2]. - The physical foundation for this software-hardware collaborative innovation is the new generation AI infrastructure CloudMatrix, which features a unified bus (UB) network that reduces performance discrepancies in cross-node communication [2]. Group 3: Hardware and Software Synergy - The development of CloudMatrix not only provides a physical basis for software innovations like the Prefill-Decode-Caching (PDC) decoupled architecture but also enables high parallelism and low latency in software through large-scale expert parallelism (LEP) and operator-level optimizations like AIV-Direct [2].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown outstanding performance since the beginning of the year, attracting attention from investors [5] - There are specific asset classes within the Hong Kong market that present better allocation advantages for investors [5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and trends to identify potential investment opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the robust growth trend in the new tobacco industry, as evidenced by British American Tobacco's performance in the first half of 2025, particularly in the heated tobacco and new oral tobacco segments [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The global HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is entering a new product lifecycle phase, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion [2]. - The vaping market faced challenges in the first half of 2025, with British American Tobacco's vaping business generating £737 million in revenue, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, primarily due to illegal products in the U.S. and Canada, as well as market dynamics in Europe and other regions [2]. - The company has exited markets like Malaysia and Saudi Arabia to improve investment returns, while the U.S. has seen a clearance of illegal disposable brand inventories, which will take time to impact the market [2]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - The overall performance of HNB products remained stable, with British American Tobacco's HNB business achieving £444 million in revenue, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, and heated stick sales reaching 10.1 billion units, up 2% [3]. - The introduction of Glo Hilo has helped expand market share in trial regions, with a 1.5 percentage point increase in Glo's market share in Sendai [3]. - The new oral tobacco segment has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching £470 million, a 38% increase year-on-year, and sales volume of 5 billion pouches, up 42% [3]. - The U.S. market for new oral tobacco has surged, with a 206% increase in sales, and the Velo brand capturing a market share of 17% by July 2025, making it the fastest-growing brand in this category [3].

报告导读： 本文筛选出四位历史投资业绩较优的科技基金经理，对他们的投资风格与操作 特征进行分析。 科技板块投资机会分析： 我国科技产业有较大的发展空间，板块投资价值较大，发展主要驱动因素分为市场与政策两大方面。 —富国孙权： 聚焦科技成长，投资框架为产业研究 + 个股挖掘。产业方面，偏好长期趋势好、空间大、景气向上的细分赛道，集中度较高，对于阶段性看好 的赛道敢于重配。个股方面，偏好细分产业中具有竞争力的公司。从操作来看，由于主要通过景气跟踪来把握买卖时点，因此换手率波动较大，此外会根据对 个股的把控度动态调整权重。 风险提示。 1 、基金过往业绩不能代表未来表现，本文根据客观数据和评价指标计算，不作为对未来走势的判断和投资建议。报告内涉及的个股案例均为对 历史数据的客观分析，同样不构成投资建议。 2 、作为主动权益类产品，基金的业绩表现与基金经理密切相关，需要关注基金经理变动对业绩的影响。 3 、 作为主动权益类产品，股票价格的波动对组合影响较大，适合具备中高风险承受能力的投资者持有。 4 、投资科技基金，需要警惕估值波动、海外政策的不 确定性、基本面不及预期以及技术落地与迭代失败等相关风险。 报告来源 以 ...

国泰海通煤炭黄涛团队 持续开展煤炭深度研究，分别从反内卷、电煤需求、煤炭企业成本、疆煤等不同视角切入，前瞻挖掘煤炭行业投资机会，以下为研究报告、电 话会议、深度报告节选。 一、研究报告 （点击标题查看报告） 专题研究： 深度研究： 01、煤化工风起新疆，或迎来黄金时代 20250102 二、电话会议回放 （扫码查看） 01、煤炭"反内卷"政策再起，供需拐点明确 7月22日 02、周期行业"反内卷"专题探讨 7月22日 三、重点报告节选 01、煤炭"反内卷"专题研究二：不一样的煤炭，中期行业拐点已现 20250730 02、煤炭"反内卷"专题研究一："反内卷"务实煤价底部，当下就是拐点 20250717 03、电煤需求展望专题：新能源步入下半场，电煤压力最大已过 20250707 04、电煤需求研究专题：从用电结构变化看电煤需求底部支撑 20250702 05、煤炭企业成本专题：从财务及固定资产视角看价格支撑 20250410 煤炭"反内卷"专题研究二：不一样的煤炭，中期行业拐点已现 报告日期：20250730 导读： 通过对比煤炭行业当前与其他周期性行业（如多晶硅、玻璃）在供给组成上的深层次差异，我们认为煤炭 ...