Group 1: Core Views on Pig Cycle - The stability of pig prices since the beginning of the year indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1] - The pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, where the efficiency cycle reflects production efficiency affected by winter diseases, and the breeding cycle shows a strong correlation between the number of breeding sows and price changes [1][2] - The current phase is characterized by a downward trend in pig prices and capacity reduction, with attention needed on price declines, industry losses, and potential policy impacts [2] Group 2: Investment Outlook in Pig Sector - The pig sector is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which historically corresponds to strong stock performance [3] - Major stocks in the sector are at relatively low valuations, and factors such as price declines, disease situations, and policy changes could act as catalysts for stock price increases [3] - Selection of individual stocks should consider funding, cost, and growth balance, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term valuation increases [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights a stable trading environment for thematic investments, with a notable surge in stablecoins and PCB themes, while new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and rare earth permanent magnet themes are experiencing a pullback. There is optimism for technology-related themes to present new investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Thematic Trading Overview - The average daily trading volume for hot themes from June 16 to 20 was 432 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.35%. Overall, the trading heat for themes has remained stable since June [1] - The structure of hot themes is shifting rapidly, with stablecoin themes leading the market due to concentrated catalysts, while oil and gas development themes remain active amid Middle East turmoil [1] Group 2: Digital Currency - The establishment of an international operating center for digital RMB was proposed at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, which is expected to facilitate cross-border trade and promote the internationalization of the RMB [2] - The introduction of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong and the U.S. is anticipated to accelerate the development of the digital currency industry, making stablecoins a vital tool for cross-border payments and corporate financing [2] - Recommendations include focusing on financial innovations in digital currency and cross-border payments, particularly for blockchain and cross-border clearing system providers [2] Group 3: AI Intelligence - Major companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Baidu are launching AI intelligence products, with Manus allowing general user registration [2] - AI intelligence is seen as a complete end-to-end solution that enhances data utilization and accelerates the development of vertical applications, becoming a key catalyst for the commercialization of AI applications [2] - Recommendations include investing in internet giants with capital expenditure and user advantages, as well as companies benefiting from increased demand for computing power [2] Group 4: Domestic Consumption - The Chinese government has issued guidelines to improve social security and public services, aiming to boost domestic consumption and stimulate service consumption potential [3] - The focus is on upgrading bulk consumption and leveraging emerging consumption trends, with recommendations for sectors like education, childcare, and domestic brands in cosmetics and trendy toys [3] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations to encourage mergers and acquisitions, leading to a significant increase in the number of major asset restructuring plans since 2025, which is 3.3 times that of the same period in 2024 [4] - The total value of completed major asset restructuring transactions has exceeded 200 billion yuan, which is 11.6 times that of the same period in 2024 [4] - Recommendations focus on quality asset restructuring in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and high-end equipment, as well as professional integration in energy resources and public services [4]

Core Insights - GPT-5 is expected to be released in the summer of 2025, integrating existing model functionalities [2] - Marvell has raised its market expectations for the data center potential market size from $75 billion in 2024 to $94 billion in 2028 [3] - MiniMax has launched three new products, including a text reasoning model, a video generation model, and a general-purpose agent [4] Group 1: GPT-5 Release - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman announced the anticipated release of GPT-5, which will combine the natural language processing capabilities of GPT-4o and the advantages of o3 in coding and scientific reasoning [2] - The model aims to enhance overall performance and may introduce advertising in ChatGPT as a new revenue stream [2] Group 2: Marvell's Market Expectations - Marvell's updated forecast indicates that the custom XPU market is expected to reach $40 billion with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47% [3] - The XPU component market is projected to reach $15 billion with a CAGR of 90% [3] - Marvell also introduced the world's first 2nm SRAM chip, designed to improve custom XPU performance, achieving 17 times the bandwidth density of current mainstream IP products and reducing standby power consumption by 66% [3] Group 3: MiniMax Product Launches - MiniMax introduced the MiniMax-M1, the world's first open-source large-scale hybrid architecture reasoning model, capable of handling 1 million tokens in context input and 80,000 tokens in output [4] - The video generation model Hailuo 02 is noted for its ability to generate complex scenes such as gymnastics and acrobatics, improving training and reasoning efficiency by 2.5 times [4] - The MiniMax Agent is designed for executing long-term complex tasks, supporting multimodal understanding and generation, and can integrate commonly used MCP toolchains [4]

报告导读： 5月央、地层面支出增速分化，前者升，后者落。这体现了中央财政在扩大 内需、保障民生方面积极发力。下半年宏观政策延续积极方向，有望边际加码。 政府性基金收入增速回落。 2025年1-5月，全国政府性基金预算收入同比下降6.9%，进度高于过去两年同期水 平，其中5月当月同比增速-8.1%，相比4月明显下滑。二季度以来，房地产需求较为疲软，土地使用权收入下 滑对政府性基金收入有所拖累。6月国常会提出，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。我们认为，房地产的供 需变化还需密切跟踪。 政府性基金支出增速下滑，节奏尚可。 2025年1-5月，全国政府性基金预算支出同比增长16%，进度高于去年 同期水平，其中5月当月同比增速8.8%，相比4月明显回落。值得一提的是，4月支出增速较高除了专项债、超 长期特别国债加快发行的支撑，也与基数扰动有关，5月支出增速虽然有所回落，但是表现尚可。 积极财政：持续发力。 今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金，支持消费品以旧换新工作，目 前带动销售额已超过去年全年。后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季度分批有序下达。我们认为，目前外 部因素扰动影响已经不大，提振内部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that pig prices may stabilize before declining towards the end of the year, with a focus on capacity reduction as the current industry theme, emphasizing the importance of price, policy, and disease as catalysts [1]. Group 1: Price Stability and Trends - Year-to-date price stability indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1]. - The pig cycle is defined by the breeding cycle and efficiency cycle, with historical price trends showing that efficiency cycles can lead to price turning points around April and peaks in Q3 [1][2]. Group 2: Price Outlook - The efficiency cycle will still impact prices in 2025, but to a lesser extent than in previous years, leading to a stable to slightly strong price in the middle of the year, followed by increased downward pressure in the latter half [2]. - Historical patterns indicate that piglet prices typically decline around June, and the assumption that hot weather will lead to price drops has not held true in recent summers [2]. Group 3: Industry Capacity and Investment Opportunities - The industry is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which is historically the best-performing stage for pig cycle stocks [3]. - Major stocks within the sector are currently valued at relatively low historical levels, with potential catalysts for price increases including price declines, disease situations, and policy changes [3]. - Investment selection should consider factors such as funding, cost, and growth, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term relative valuation increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - After 2023, there is a noticeable trend of residents' deposits flowing back into wealth management products due to the rapid decline in deposit interest rates, reversing the previous trend of "deposit migration" observed after 2018 [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - Since 2018, there has been a significant shift of residents' wealth back to deposits, which can be seen as a reversal in wealth allocation [1]. - In 2023, the proportion of residents investing in wealth management products has started to rise again, although the rebound is limited, with deposit allocation still maintaining a high level of around 70% [1]. Group 2: Benefiting Products - As funds flow out of deposits, low-risk bank wealth management products (mainly fixed income) and money market funds are the primary alternatives for residents [2]. - Bond funds may attract some capital inflow when the bond market performs well, while the insurance industry is expected to show accelerated growth in 2024, and the trust market has also shown signs of recovery in recent years [2]. - The trend of residents diversifying their investments into various wealth management products is expected to continue, as deposit rate cuts are likely to outpace the decline in interbank market rates [2].

Macro Insights - Stablecoins are not absolutely stable in value; they are subject to technical de-pegging risks and fluctuations in the underlying assets [1] - Not all fiat currencies can support the issuance of stablecoins; the development of stablecoins depends on the acceptance and trust in the underlying fiat currency [1] - The rapid development of USD stablecoins does not weaken the credibility of the USD; instead, it enhances the USD's role and functionality [1] - USD stablecoins provide limited relief to the US short-term debt market, with the Federal Reserve remaining the primary influencer of the overall debt market [2] - The emergence of USD stablecoins does not significantly increase the supply of USD; the Federal Reserve retains control over total USD liquidity [2] - Stablecoins support the RWA market primarily at the transaction level, with the development of RWA ultimately dependent on the quality of underlying assets [2] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend despite recent adjustments, driven by emerging opportunities in new technologies and consumption [4] - The potential for a trend of USD depreciation is increasing, which may benefit Chinese assets, particularly in the context of capital flow and asset pricing [5] - The focus on AI trends in the technology sector is emphasized, alongside recommendations for cyclical industries and high-dividend financial stocks [6] AH Premium Analysis - The historical AH premium has been trending downward, influenced by differences in market structure, liquidity, and industry concentration between A-shares and H-shares [8] - Recent changes indicate a narrowing of the AH premium, with some H-shares trading at a premium compared to their A-share counterparts [9] Commodity Insights - The lithium and cobalt sectors are under scrutiny, with current market conditions showing weak demand and price pressures [11][12] - The cobalt market is experiencing a downturn, with reduced purchasing activity and potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could impact prices [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent divergence between the RMB exchange rate and the US-China interest rate differential, attributing it to the weakening credit of US assets, which enhances the willingness of enterprises to convert currency [3] - The article emphasizes that the future pricing of the RMB exchange rate should consider the credit of the US dollar, suggesting that a weaker dollar environment provides greater liquidity and policy space domestically [3] Group 2 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focuses on global financial governance, extensive financial opening, and the integration of capital markets with technological innovation [7] - The forum highlights the importance of a comprehensive foreign exchange innovation policy to support high-quality development [7] Group 3 - The article identifies six misconceptions about stablecoins, including the belief that their value is absolutely stable and that all fiat currencies can issue stablecoins in large quantities [9] - It also discusses the potential impact of stablecoins on the supply of US dollars and their role in the RWA market [9] Group 4 - The article outlines a trend of Chinese residents moving their deposits back into wealth management products due to declining deposit rates, reversing a previous trend of deposit inflow [11] - This shift indicates a changing landscape in wealth allocation among Chinese residents [11] Group 5 - The article reviews the historical performance of assets during periods of a weakening dollar since 1970, suggesting investment opportunities in foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equities [13] - It highlights the increasing likelihood of dollar depreciation due to misaligned monetary policies and external circulation obstacles [13] Group 6 - The article presents ten investment themes in the Chinese stock market, focusing on frontier technologies, advanced manufacturing, and improving market structures [15][20] - It emphasizes the potential of AI, bioeconomy, 6G communication, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving as key investment areas [16][17][18][21][23] Group 7 - The article discusses the acceleration of capital market reforms, emphasizing the importance of RMB internationalization and capital opening in stabilizing the stock market [29] - It notes that the integration of technology and industry innovation is crucial for future market developments [29]

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关联阅读： 国泰海通｜稳定币· 合集（一） ·概 要 · 在 《稳定币：如何重塑全球货币和资产》 中，我们详细分析了稳定币市场的发展现状、发展前 景及其对大类资产的影响。本篇专题我们进一步指出当前市场对于稳定币的几个认知误区。 误区一：稳定币的价值绝对稳定。 稳定币本质是锚定资产的信用延伸，其价值既存在技术性脱锚 风险，又受到锚定资产波动影响，因此稳定币的价值并非绝对稳定，而是相对稳定。 误区二：所有法币都可以大量发行稳定币。 并不是所有的货币都能大量发行稳定币，不同法币稳 定币最终的发展取决于法定货币本身的接受度，获得最广泛信任的法币稳定币会出现"赢家通 吃"。 误区三：美元稳定币会弱化美元信用。 美元稳定币的快速发展并不会冲击美元体系，而会进一步 强化美元地位，因为美元稳定币拓宽了美元的功能和使用范围。而美元稳定币对于其他国家尤其 是汇率波动大的经济体的法定货币反而冲击较大。 误区四：美元稳定币是美债的"救命稻草"。 美元稳定币市场仅能稍微缓解美国短债的压力，但短 债市场最终还是由美联储来主导。美元稳定币更不能缓解美国长债的压力，整体上来看，美元稳 定币对美债市场影响较小。 误区五：美元稳定币会大幅增加美 ...