Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bull run in the second half of the year, outperforming the A-share market due to a more significant overall increase since the beginning of the year [2] - The current market conditions are reminiscent of the 2012-2014 period, with Hong Kong stocks benefiting from the scarcity of certain assets and alignment with industry development trends [2][3] - The influx of capital from mainland investors is likely to support the upward momentum of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [2] Group 2: Technology Sector and AI - The acceleration of AI technology, particularly with the introduction of cost-effective and high-performance models like Deepseek-R1, is expected to drive commercialization in the sector [3] - Hong Kong's technology leaders are well-positioned across the entire AI value chain, which includes model development, commercial applications, and terminal ecosystems, benefiting from the AI industry transformation [3] - The easing of U.S. export controls on technology products to China may lead to increased capital investments in AI infrastructure by Hong Kong internet giants, further enhancing the growth prospects of the sector [3] Group 3: Military and Defense Industry - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to drive long-term growth in the military and defense sector, with increased defense spending being a necessary option for national security [6] - Recent performance data shows that the defense and military index outperformed the broader market, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [6] - The U.S. and NATO are developing new mechanisms to provide military support to Ukraine, which may further stimulate the defense industry [8] Group 4: Cosmetics Industry - The cosmetics market is projected to grow to 688.6 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2024 to 2029 [12] - The anti-wrinkle and firming skincare segment is expected to reach a market size of 119.8 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 18.9% during the same period [12] - The facial essence oil market is anticipated to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024, indicating strong consumer acceptance of the "oil-based skincare" approach pioneered by brands like Lin Qingxuan [12]

国泰海通证券 GUOTALHAITONG SECURITIES 研究所 造纸轻工研究分析 造纸鞋工研究分析 日科佳 造纸轻工研究分析师 使用 组织 研究首席分 te 电话 NE t 5 刘佳昆团队 海道 11 = E 3 4月10日 对话越南第 期: 越南视角下的对等关税 | 7月10日 对话越南第二期:关税近况解读 | | | --- | --- | | 8月5日 英美烟草(BTI.N,英语) 密码:57901228 | | | 8月19日 日本市场分析师(中文) 密码:待更新 | | | 8月25日 日本烟草(2914.T,日语) 密码:75853808 | | | 8月25日 三丽鸥(8136.T,日语) | 密码:36633436 | | 8 月 28 日 越南市场分析师(中文) 密码:待更新 | | | 9月3日 依视路陆逊梯卡(EL.PA,英语)密码:66844827 | | | 科乐美(9766.T,日语) 9月8日 密码:76998745 | | * 本资料不构成任何投资建议,所载内容仅供国泰海通证券客户中的专业投资者参考,本公司不因 接收人收到本资料而视为客户,具体分析内容(包括风险提示等) ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Global Capital Investment - The article discusses the extension of the tariff exemption period for Sino-U.S. trade talks by 90 days, indicating a phase of stabilization in Sino-U.S. economic relations [3] - The U.S. has initiated a new differentiated tariff structure, with a unified 40% tax rate on transshipment trade, impacting countries like Vietnam, the UK, and Indonesia [3] Group 2: Domestic Economy and Industrial Policy - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized a "seeking progress while maintaining stability" approach, focusing on promoting consumption, addressing internal competition, upgrading industries, and preventing risks [4] - Key meetings held include discussions on market regulation development and industrial and information technology planning for 2025, highlighting the government's commitment to economic recovery and reform [4] Group 3: Capital Market - Positive signals from policy levels aim to consolidate the recovery of the capital market, with a focus on enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness [5] - The People's Bank of China is set to prevent and mitigate financial risks in key areas, establishing a macro-prudential and financial stability committee [5] Group 4: Global Geopolitical and Economic Tracking - The article notes various tariff increases announced by the U.S. on imports from India, Brazil, and copper products, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with July non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 73,000, below market expectations [6] Group 5: Future Important Events Outlook - Upcoming events include the 2025 World Robot Expo in Beijing and the first comprehensive competition for humanoid robots, indicating a focus on technological advancements [7] - The implementation of cross-border asset management pilot business guidelines in Hainan Free Trade Port is set to take effect [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy showed strong resilience in the second quarter, and with the central government's ongoing "anti-involution" policy, the A-share market continued its upward trend in July, suggesting a shift towards growth-oriented fund allocation while emphasizing the importance of stock selection and risk control by fund managers [1][2]. Fund Investment Strategy - **Equity Mixed Funds**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with seasonal trends. The long-standing economic transformation pains and high risk-free returns have hindered stock market performance and investor sentiment. Despite these challenges, stock prices reflect investor expectations for the future, and there is potential for new highs in stock indices. It is recommended to increase Chinese equity positions during market pullbacks, focusing on technology growth, cyclical consumption recovery, and high-dividend sectors [2]. - **Bond Funds**: With narrowing trend trading opportunities, there is a need to focus on trading opportunities in the bond market. This includes short-term adjustments driven by market sentiment and structural strategies involving 30-year and 10-year government bonds to enhance portfolio returns. As the equity market recovers, fixed income plus funds also hold certain allocation value [3]. - **QDII and Commodity Funds**: Looking ahead, global central bank gold purchases indicate a long-term trend reflecting changes in the global monetary system. The rise of trade protectionism and global economic restructuring will increase economic differentiation, supporting demand for gold. The current gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle. Therefore, it is advisable to consider allocating to gold ETFs for long-term and hedging investments [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a series of research seminars held by Guotai Junan Securities across three cities, focusing on various sectors including construction materials, real estate, steel, coal, and chemicals, aiming to provide insights into investment opportunities and industry trends [3][6][7]. Group 1: Seminar Topics - The seminar in Beijing covered topics such as the consumption of construction materials, property reports and investment logic, and the cyclical patterns in the construction industry [6]. - The sessions included discussions on the steel industry, coal sector analysis over the past 30 years, and the evaluation of energy metals [6][7]. - In addition, the seminars addressed the current state and future trends of chemical new materials and the classification of electricity pricing [7]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The construction materials segment focused on the historical and current perspectives of glass and fiberglass [7]. - The transportation sector examined the impact of internal competition on airlines and express delivery services [7]. - The seminars also explored the potential resurgence of financial copper and the implications for the non-ferrous metals market [7].

Group 1: Low Earth Orbit Satellites and FPGA Industry - The successful launch of the low Earth orbit satellite group 07 on August 4 indicates a rapid acceleration in satellite deployment, with two launches occurring within four days [3] - The demand for FPGA in space electronic devices is increasing, with a significant example being the use of 149 FPGAs in the European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 satellite, which constitutes over 50% of its chips [3] - The growth in low Earth orbit satellite deployment is expected to boost the FPGA industry's overall market sentiment and demand [4] Group 2: Robotics Industry and World Robot Conference - The 2025 World Robot Conference will take place from August 8 to 12 in Beijing, featuring over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 domestic and international robot companies, with a focus on humanoid robots [7] - Humanoid robots are achieving breakthroughs in mobility and dexterity, which are crucial for applications in home services, manufacturing, and logistics [8] - The development of high-performance embodied intelligent models is expected to enhance the fine manipulation capabilities of humanoid robots, accelerating their commercialization [9] Group 3: Lawn Mowing Robot Industry - The lawn mowing robot industry is experiencing a technological revolution, with smart robots offering significant advantages over traditional gas-powered mowers, including lower operational costs and higher efficiency [12] - The global market for lawn mowers is substantial, with a sales volume of approximately $8.292 billion, yet the penetration rate of smart lawn mowing robots remains low, particularly in the U.S. at under 5% [13] - The market is characterized by diverse participants, including traditional giants and tech-driven companies, with significant growth potential for those with technological advantages [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held in Beijing from August 8 to 12, focusing on humanoid robots' capabilities in general scenarios, which are expected to be a key area for future development [1][2]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The 2025 World Robot Conference will feature over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 domestic and international robot companies, including over 100 new product launches [2]. - A record number of 50 humanoid robot manufacturers will present their latest products and industry solutions at the conference [2]. Technological Advancements - Significant breakthroughs in mobility and dexterity have been achieved in humanoid robots, which are expected to play crucial roles in domestic services, manufacturing, and logistics [3]. - The introduction of high-performance embodied intelligent models is anticipated to accelerate the iteration of humanoid robots' fine operation capabilities [4]. Market Potential - The fine operation capability in general scenarios is identified as the core advantage of humanoid robots compared to industrial and collaborative robots, and is expected to be a focal point for commercialization [2][3]. - The 2024 patent application volume for robots in China accounted for two-thirds of the global total, indicating a strong innovation landscape [3].

报告导读： Meta 收入利润显著超预期，净利率维持高位， FY2025E 并提升资本开支下 限。多家科技巨头累计资本开支超预期。 投资建议： 维持行业增持评级，推荐 AI 算力方向、云厂商方向、 AI 应用方向、 AI 社交方向以及 AI 注入周期下的中概巨头。 Meta 发布 FY25Q2 财报，收入利润显著超预期，净利率维持高位，并提升资本开支下限。 Meta 25Q2 实现收入 475.16 亿美元，同比 +21.6% ；营业利 润率 43.0% ，同比 +5.0pct ；净利润 183.37 亿美元，同比 +36.2% ；净利率 38.6% ，同比 +4.1pct 。 Meta 指引 25Q3 收入 475-505 亿美元，同 比 +17.0%-24.4% 。 25 全年总费用指引收窄至 1140-1180 亿美元，同比 +20-24% 。预计 26 年费用同比增速将高于 25 年，主要由于基础设施规模 扩张与优先领域的技术人才引进。通过算力基建 + 人才储备构建超级智能。 25Q2 资本支出为 170.12 亿美元，同比 +100.8% 。 25 年资本支出指引小幅 上调至 660-720 亿美元 ...

Group 1: Government Bond Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, reversing the previous tax exemption [2][3] - The market is particularly concerned about whether this change will lead to cross-period arbitrage opportunities or short squeeze phenomena in government bond futures, which hinges on whether there will be a switch in the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) bonds [2][4] Group 2: CTD Bond Switching Dynamics - Generally, new bonds find it difficult to replace old bonds as CTD bonds unless they offer a yield premium of over 15 basis points, which is challenging to achieve in practice [3] - However, exceptions exist for T contracts and TS contracts, where new bonds can more easily become CTD bonds due to their shorter duration and lower required discount [3][4] Group 3: Cross-Period Arbitrage Opportunities - The potential for cross-period arbitrage in government bond futures depends on whether the CTD bonds for near and far month contracts switch, which could lead to price discrepancies [4] - The upcoming issuance of new 2-year and 7-year bonds on September 12 may trigger CTD bond switches, creating arbitrage opportunities between TS2512-TS2603 and T2512-T2603 [4] Group 4: Short Squeeze Potential - There is a possibility of a short squeeze in government bond futures if new bonds become CTD bonds, especially given the limited supply of new bonds initially [5] - The market's lack of experience with new bonds as CTD bonds could exacerbate the short squeeze pressure, particularly for contracts like T and TS2603, which are associated with new 7-year and 2-year bonds [5] Group 5: Domestic Weight Loss Drug Innovations - Domestic pharmaceutical companies are making significant progress in the development of innovative weight loss drugs, with several companies completing key clinical trials and receiving regulatory approvals [9][10] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the commercialization of competitive domestic weight loss drugs, with notable advancements in clinical data and market readiness [10][11] Group 6: Fund Holdings in Communication Sector - The fund holdings in the communication sector have shown a positive trend, with a 1.31 percentage point increase in the market value share, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [15] - The AI computing power supply chain remains a focal point for investment, with significant capital expenditures expected from major domestic internet companies [14][15]

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