Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in thematic trading activity, particularly in Western infrastructure, with net inflows into brokerage and resource sectors. The focus is on the new round of market trends driven by emerging technology industries, especially AI and embodied intelligence [1]. Group 1: Thematic Trading Trends - The average daily trading volume for hot themes reached 671 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 4.02%, indicating a notable increase compared to the previous period [1]. - Major engineering projects related to hydropower saw substantial gains, while resource futures experienced a short squeeze, leading to strong stock price performance in related sectors [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized efforts to stabilize the market, which is expected to benefit thematic investments, particularly in AI and embodied intelligence driven by the upcoming AI conference [1]. Group 2: AI New Infrastructure - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference opened with significant product launches and new demand catalysts for the domestic AI industry chain [2]. - The conference focused on ten major areas, including AI infrastructure and AI-enabled new industrialization, which are expected to drive investment trends [2]. - Recommendations include sectors benefiting from large-scale applications of AI, such as research, autonomous driving, and fintech, as well as the domestic computing power industry [2]. Group 3: Embodied Intelligence - Domestic robotics startups are accelerating product launches and financing, with notable releases like the humanoid robot Unitree R1 priced from 39,900 yuan [3]. - The capital operations and financing processes of robotics companies are speeding up, supporting the industry's scale development [3]. - Recommendations focus on manufacturers capable of large-scale production and components benefiting from technological advancements [3]. Group 4: Regional Economy - The new open pattern represented by Hainan's customs closure and the Western infrastructure projects signifies new trends in regional economic development [4]. - Hainan's free trade port is set to officially launch customs closure by December 18, 2025, promoting a model of "open on one line, controlled on another, and free within the island" [4]. - Recommendations include sectors benefiting from Hainan's customs closure, such as transportation logistics and tourism, as well as industries driven by major engineering investments [4]. Group 5: Production Limits and Price Stabilization - Comprehensive measures to address "involution" competition are being implemented, with a draft price law seeking public input to regulate market pricing [4]. - The central government has emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition in industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [4]. - Recommendations include sectors facing issues with low-price competition and those with improved supply-side expectations, such as steel, coal, chemicals, and pig farming [4].

更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 重要提醒 ...

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...

报告导读： 煤炭价格见底回升，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 煤炭价格加速回暖，反内卷政策再升温 ；报告日期：2025.07.23 报告作者： 黄涛（分析师）登记编号：S0880515090001 王楠瑀（研究助理）登记编号： S0880123060041 重要提醒 计未来3个月是关键的基本面验证时点。 投资建议：从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心标的。 煤价继续回升，"反内卷"持续发酵。 2025年7月22日，国家能源局综合司发布促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通 知。通知显示，今年以来，全国煤炭供需形势总体宽松，价格持续下行，部分煤矿企业"以量补价"，超公 告产能组织生产严重扰乱煤炭市场秩序。为规范煤矿企业生产行为，促进煤炭供应平稳有序，国家能源局 拟于近期在重点产煤省(区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作。1）需求端：5月开始，伴随天气的快速转 热，全社会用电量增速也提升至4.4%，带动火电发电量已经由负转正至1.2%，6月火电发电量同比 +1.1%。我们认为伴随全国正式进入盛夏，从当前气象数据显示今年夏天气温较历史平均更高，旺季需求 日 ...

Group 1 - In Q2 2025, actively managed equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in their portfolios rising to 20% [1] - The concentration of holdings among actively managed public funds decreased, indicating a shift towards mid and small-cap stocks in Hong Kong [1] - The investment strategy involved increasing allocations to both growth assets like pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors, as well as dividend-paying assets such as non-bank financials and banks [1] Group 2 - Passive index funds also saw continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with approximately 280 billion yuan flowing in during Q2 2025, although at a slower rate compared to Q1 [2] - The total inflow through the Hong Kong Stock Connect for public funds in the first half of 2025 reached nearly 200 billion yuan, with a projected total for the year between 300 billion and 450 billion yuan [2] - The potential for further inflows remains significant, with an estimated theoretical allocation space of about 300 billion yuan for actively managed public funds [2] Group 3 - The momentum for southbound capital inflows is recovering, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares in the second half of the year [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to become a key focus, driven by advancements in AI and easing of trade restrictions between China and the US [3] - Other sectors such as high-dividend stocks, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are also highlighted as areas of interest for investment in the latter half of the year [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is an adjustment in tactical asset allocation, recommending an overweight position in Chinese equities, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, a market weight in Japanese stocks, and an underweight position in government bonds [1][2][3] - The improvement in market risk appetite is driving the pricing of major asset classes, with equities outperforming safe-haven assets, indicating a preference for risk assets over bonds [1][2] - Factors supporting the performance of Chinese assets include stable total policy expectations, increased enthusiasm for technology breakthroughs and emerging industries, and a focus on capital market development by the government [2][3] Group 2 - The tactical allocation view for A-shares has been upgraded to overweight due to the high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value of Chinese equity assets [2] - The tactical allocation view for US stocks has also been upgraded to overweight, driven by improved market risk appetite and a more favorable outlook on US trade policies following the US-Japan tariff agreement [2][3] - The tactical allocation view for Japanese stocks has been adjusted to market weight, as concerns over Japan's export trade have decreased, although inflationary pressures remain a consideration [3] Group 3 - The tactical allocation view for government bonds has been downgraded to underweight due to multiple factors including improved market risk appetite and ongoing redemption pressures, which are expected to negatively impact bond prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is the decline in the risk-free interest rate, which will lead to an overall increase in the valuation of A/H shares [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Valuation Logic - The main contradiction in market expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to the decline in discount rates, particularly the risk-free interest rate [2]. - The high opportunity cost over the past three years has hindered investors' willingness to enter the market [2]. Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical examples from Japan and the United States show that when interest rates fall to a certain level, investor interest shifts from fixed-income products to stocks and equity products [3]. - In China, each major market rally has been accompanied by a decline in risk-free interest rates, leading to increased capital inflow into the stock market [4]. Current Market Conditions - The current environment indicates that the conditions for a new round of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market are forming, driven by the decline in long-term bond yields [4]. - The anticipated decline in risk-free rates will likely lead to a broad-based increase in valuations across A/H shares, benefiting both blue-chip and growth stocks [5]. Future Outlook - The research suggests a strategic bullish outlook on China, emphasizing the importance of recognizing the shift in the main contradiction affecting market expectations [2][5].

Core Insights - OpenAI is expected to release GPT-5 in August, indicating rapid advancements in AI technology [1][2] - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) is taking place in Shanghai, showcasing significant developments in AI [2] - Companies are increasingly integrating AI into various sectors, including finance, marketing, and customer service, highlighting the broad application potential of AI technologies [1][2] Group 1: AI Developments - Meta plans to invest $100 billion in building a new generation of AI data centers and has established a "Super Intelligence Lab" [2] - OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Agent, which features multi-tool integration capabilities for end-to-end task execution [2] - Alibaba has released an open-source inference model Qwen3-2507, which matches the performance of top international closed-source models [2] Group 2: Industry Applications - AI is gradually being implemented in securities research and advisory, banking credit, marketing channels, insurance agent empowerment, small business ordering and marketing, and consumer finance risk control and customer service [1] - The brokerage industry is expected to see significant growth in intelligent research and advisory services, with recommendations for leading companies that develop specialized models and related products [1] - The consumer finance sector is anticipated to rapidly adopt intelligent customer service, marketing, and risk control applications [1] Group 3: Company Initiatives - Tonghuashun has launched new AI features, integrating large models to support stock selection, analysis, and inquiries [3] - Qifu Technology has been approved as one of the first members of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's AI Standardization Technical Committee, recognizing its contributions to AI in financial security [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of China Fusion Company marks a significant transition from experimental research to engineering and commercial application in fusion energy, demonstrating a key leap for the fusion industry cluster development in China [1][2]. Group 1: Company Establishment and Investment - China Fusion Company was officially established on July 22, 2025, in Shanghai, with a total investment of 11.492 billion yuan from seven units, including China National Nuclear Corporation and China Petroleum Kunlun Capital [2]. - The company will focus on the engineering and commercialization of fusion energy, utilizing the magnetic confinement Tokamak technology [2]. - China Fusion Company has signed a deepening cooperation agreement with several institutions, including Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Shanghai Electric Group, to promote collaborative development within the fusion industry chain [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Development and Technological Advancements - Shanghai is actively promoting the fusion industry cluster, emphasizing the integration of innovation elements from enterprises, universities, and research institutions to accelerate the commercialization of fusion technology [3]. - Shanghai Superconductor has achieved breakthroughs in high-temperature superconducting core technology, holding over 80% market share for domestic and international fusion reactor supplies [3]. - The establishment of the fusion innovation consortium will enhance the density of technological innovation and accelerate the development of a globally influential fusion energy innovation hub [3]. Group 3: Global Context and Future Outlook - The global fusion industry is thriving, with at least 45 commercial fusion companies and cumulative investments of approximately 7 billion USD, with 80% of surveyed companies expecting to supply power to the grid in the 2030s [4]. - China has validated the feasibility of fusion reactors through national research projects and plans to start the BEST project in 2025, aiming for its first power supply to the grid by 2030 [4]. - The role of state capital in Shanghai is crucial for encouraging social capital to foster innovation in the upstream and downstream sectors, potentially shortening the growth cycle of the fusion industry [4].

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