Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are expected to benefit from expansion in advanced logic, advanced memory, and advanced packaging fields, leading to sustained growth through 2025E [1] Semiconductor Equipment Sector - The semiconductor equipment sector is rated "overweight" as capital expenditures from mainland China’s fabs and OSATs are projected to increase in 2025 and 2026, albeit with structural differences [1] - Foundries will focus on expanding advanced processes, while advanced memory factories will upgrade to more advanced technologies, and OSATs will concentrate on advanced packaging [1] - Companies with significant exposure in advanced logic, memory, and packaging are expected to benefit from the upcoming expansions over the next 2 to 3 years [1] Semiconductor Materials Sector - The semiconductor materials sector is also rated "overweight," with wafer and packaging factories gradually recovering capacity utilization rates in 2024 [1] - Leading wafer manufacturers like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are expected to see continued improvements in capacity utilization rates into Q1 2025, with additional capacity released from expansions in 2024 [1] - Companies with substantial market share in mainstream wafer and packaging sectors, along with new products gaining traction in client applications, are anticipated to achieve better performance [1] Financial Performance - In the semiconductor equipment sector, 44 companies reported a total revenue of 109.368 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.01% from 86.109 billion yuan in 2023 [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 15.653 billion yuan, up 8.09% from 14.482 billion yuan in 2023 [2] - In the semiconductor materials sector, 42 companies reported a total revenue of 76.245 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.90% from 66.357 billion yuan in 2023 [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 5.209 billion yuan, down 17.98% from 6.351 billion yuan in 2023 [3] Market Valuation - The trading volume of the semiconductor equipment sector accounted for a minimum of 0.61%, a maximum of 2.82%, and an average of 1.14% of the total trading volume in the A-share market, with a current level of 0.98% as of April 30, 2025 [4] - The semiconductor materials sector's trading volume had a minimum of 0.38%, a maximum of 2.10%, and an average of 0.78%, with a current level of 0.96% as of April 30, 2025 [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are projected to be 31.21 times and 36.56 times, respectively, based on 2025 earnings forecasts [4]

风险提示：关税影响传导至内需，国内经济表现超预期 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告： 五一消费：出行高增，服务偏强 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 【策略 】 重要转折之后：中国股市有望进一步走高 大势研判：中国 A/H 股市有望进一步走高。 国泰海通策略在 4 月 7 日市场低点，旗帜鲜明判断"中国股 市进入击球区"、"继续看多中国股市"、"中国股市的升势远未结束"。 节前上证指数接近 3300 点，五一 期间恒生科技单日大涨 3.1% ，收复"对等关税"失地。 我们认为， 3-4 月股市的调整与有力的修复，是 继 924 后再一次的重要转折。其表明， 投资者关于中美竞争的严峻性与对决策层扭转形势决心的疑虑消 减，既是风险释放也是试金石。 展望下一阶段，我们维持对中国股市的乐观看法： 1 ） 遍历冲击后，投 资人对经济形势的认识已然充分，包括交易结构的出清，是股市好转的重要前提。 2 ）美国"对等关税"落 地后，总体上进入拉锯与谈判的窗口期，尽管仍有不确定性，但第一阶段的激烈摩擦告一段落，形成有利 的做多窗口。 3 ）既然中美的竞争是长期性的，由此，股市预期的关键"在 ...

核心观 点 ： 2025Q1 总量业绩增速回升转正，科技与部分顺周期业绩占优，新兴科技与两重两新 是最清晰的景气线索。成长板块资本开支提速，科技与周期经营现金流修复明显 。 摘要 ▶ 总量增速回升转正，科技成长业绩占优。 全 A 非金融石油石化（全 A 两非）归母净利润 增速在 2024Q4 继续探底，但在后续的 2025Q1 转正，控费带动净利率回升是一季度盈利增速回升的主要因 素，但周转率仍有下行压力。结构上，一季度景气线索清晰，具备新兴产业趋势的 AI 硬件业绩增速居 前，顺经济周期链条中"两重两新"落地扩容带动了汽车 / 家电 / 工程机械的业绩增长，供给受限的有色 / 化工增速居前。此外，非银受益资本市场活跃，业绩增速也改善明显。 ▶ 总量增速改善，成长与中小盘修复明显。 1 ）盈利增速： 2024 年全 A 两非营收同比 -0.8% ，净利 润同比 -14.0% 。利润表拆分看，毛利率走弱与费用率上升共同拖累净利率。但 2025Q1 全 A 两非净 利润同比 +4.7% ，较 2024 全年明显改善，主要因为费用率的大幅下行与毛利率止跌企稳带动的净利 率回升。一季度各板块增速分化明显，创业板大幅修 ...

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