二季度债券型基金规模显著回升，主动纯债与指数基金贡献明显。 2025 年二季度以来，受益于国内货币 条件的边际宽松，叠加外部关税扰动下风险偏好收敛所形成的共振，债券型基金规模显著回升，在管规模 相较一季度增长 0.85 万亿至 10.9 万亿元，占全部公募基金比重约 32% 。得益于 5 月双降政策及 6 月 1.4 万亿买断式逆回购的落地，机构对于债券的配置意愿转向积极，与此同时伴随 8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 被纳入质押库，以及债市科技板升温下有关科创债 ETF 的预期不断提升，信用债 ETF 规模逐步壮 大。因而在二季度，主动纯债与指数债基规模增长贡献明显，两者分别较一季度增长超 4400/2900 亿 元。而固收 + 内部则出现了一定的分化，相对低波的一级债基环比增长 831 亿元，二级债基与可转债基 金则分别增长了 390/-32 亿元。 报告导读： ETF 规模占比增加，中长债基久期与杠杆均显著提升。 吴宇擎（研究助理），登记编号：S0880516050001 重要提醒 久期迭创新高，杠杆协同发力。 二季度尤其是 6 月以来，债券基金久期显著拉升。截至 Q2 末，短债与 中长债基金（剔除摊余成本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price decline, which may lead to a more stable competitive environment. The focus on leading e-commerce express companies is expected to enhance their market share and catalyze valuation recovery opportunities, while the timing for cyclical bottoming in express delivery services is also favorable [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume increased by 15.8% year-on-year, with a total of 16.87 billion packages expected to be delivered by the end of the month. The second quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year growth of 17.3%, driven by e-commerce promotions and convenient return policies [1][2]. - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain a growth rate exceeding 8% for the entire year of 2025, surpassing the predictions made by the postal administration [1]. Company Performance - In June 2025, the business volume growth rates for major listed companies were as follows: SF Express +31.8%, YTO Express +19.3%, Yunda Express +7.4%, and Shentong Express +11.1%. For Q2 2025, the growth rates were +31.2%, +21.8%, +11.2%, and +16.0% respectively [1][2]. - The single-package revenue for the four major companies in June 2025 showed declines: SF Express -13.3%, YTO Express -6.7%, Yunda Express -4.5%, and Shentong Express -1.0%. In Q2 2025, the declines were -13.7%, -6.3%, -5.4%, and -2.5% respectively [3]. Market Concentration - The concentration of the express delivery industry continues to increase, with the CR8 index reaching 87.0 in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market shares for major companies in June 2025 were SF Express 8.7%, YTO Express 15.6%, Yunda Express 12.9%, and Shentong Express 12.9% [2]. Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry's revenue grew by 9.0% year-on-year in June 2025, while the single-package revenue decreased by 5.8%. In Q2 2025, the revenue growth was 9.3%, with a single-package revenue decline of 6.8%. The narrowing of the price decline indicates a potential easing of price competition [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing focus on "involution" competition in China is expected to accelerate the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, drawing lessons from overseas experiences in the U.S., Japan, and Europe to reshape industry dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Policies - Since the second half of 2024, China's macro policies have increasingly addressed "involution" competition, with significant meetings highlighting the need for industry self-discipline and the prevention of "malicious competition" [4][10]. - The essence of the current "anti-involution" policies is not to suppress market competition but to promote a transition from inefficient, disorderly expansion to sustainable, high-quality growth through institutional restructuring and incentive mechanism reform [4][15]. Group 2: U.S. Strategies - The U.S. government actively encourages mergers and acquisitions to force outdated capacities out of the market, leading to an oligopolistic competition structure that mitigates intense rivalry [5][23]. - The U.S. has shifted labor-intensive industries overseas, alleviating high domestic costs while promoting high-tech industries domestically, thus achieving a restructuring of the value chain [5][25]. - A series of innovation policies have been implemented to guide industry upgrades, enhancing market competitiveness through sustained research and technological advancements [5][26]. Group 3: Japanese Approaches - Japanese companies have accelerated their overseas expansion through "grouping out," supported by government policies that reduce risks associated with international operations [6][33]. - The Japanese industry has undergone significant consolidation, resulting in fewer but larger firms that reduce unnecessary competition and enhance profitability [6][37]. - Many Japanese firms are actively transforming their business models to escape homogeneous competition, focusing on high-value-added products and brand differentiation [6][44][45]. Group 4: European Measures - Europe employs rigid institutional constraints to set competitive boundaries, preventing companies from falling into involution cycles through strict regulations on state subsidies and competition law enforcement [7][46]. - The European Green Deal aims for carbon neutrality by 2050, raising industry entry standards and encouraging technological innovation, which helps eliminate low-value-added competitors [7][50]. - New regulations in the EU for renewable energy projects emphasize non-price criteria, creating barriers for foreign companies while favoring local enterprises [7][51].

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of the ETF market in the U.S. is expected to temporarily enhance turnover rates, while the liquidity premium of domestic bond ETFs is already relatively high [1]. Group 1: U.S. Bond ETF Market Trends - The U.S. bond ETF market is projected to grow significantly from $554.48 billion in 2023 to $1,152.81 billion in 2024, marking a growth rate of 107.9%. However, a noticeable decline is expected in 2025, with the market size dropping to $441.57 billion by June 2025 [2]. - During the periods of market expansion, particularly in early 2022, the turnover rate of U.S. credit bond ETFs increased, with an annual average turnover rate of 41% and peaks of 43% and 45% during specific months [2]. - There is no clear positive correlation between the expansion of the U.S. bond ETF market and turnover rates over a longer time frame, as evidenced from 2018 to 2020 when market size increased but turnover rates did not [2]. Group 2: Trading Activity and Liquidity Premium - The number of transactions for constituent bonds has significantly increased with the expansion of ETFs. For instance, the proportion of constituent bonds in the AAA benchmark market-making credit bond index has risen to 91.7% since July 2025 [3]. - The liquidity premium is reasonably anchored within 10 basis points (BP). Since 2024, the risk associated with high-grade urban investment bonds and secondary capital bonds has been similar, with a central spread of 0 and fluctuations generally within 10 BP [4]. - Some constituent bonds are experiencing liquidity premiums exceeding 15 BP due to heightened buying sentiment among certain institutions [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and ETF Dynamics - The expansion of ETFs is unlikely to lead to a sustained increase in the liquidity of constituent bonds. The physical redemption mechanism makes it easier to increase the scale of credit bond ETFs, but the liquidity of some constituent bonds may peak and decline as their market size decreases [5]. - Market sentiment significantly influences liquidity, with changes in ETF scale reflecting market emotions. The fluctuation in cash redemption products may be more pronounced during market adjustments, potentially putting pressure on the constituent bonds in the PCF list [5].

Core Viewpoint - The communication industry is experiencing a positive turnaround in fund holdings, with a market value share of 3.90% in Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.31 percentage points, returning to the top ten sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Holdings and Market Position - In Q2 2025, the communication sector's fund holdings ranked fifth among 31 primary industries, with the top five being electronics, power equipment, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and banking, with respective shares of 17.22%, 9.80%, 9.55%, 9.04%, and 7.90% [3]. - The AI industry chain remains a focal point, with the top three companies in the communication sector by fund holding market value being NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Hudian Co., with market values of 31.207 billion yuan (up 123.28%), 28.788 billion yuan (up 124.58%), and 12.311 billion yuan (up 178.32%) respectively [3]. Group 2: Industry Outlook and Growth Potential - The communication industry maintains an "overweight" rating, driven by the ongoing high growth phase of capital expenditure in computing power, closely aligned with the global AI development trajectory [2]. - Significant capital expenditures are anticipated in the domestic AI sector, with Alibaba projecting that its investment in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years will exceed the total of the past decade, while Tencent's capital expenditure is expected to triple year-on-year to 10.7 billion USD in 2024 [2]. - The AI computing power industry chain is expected to continue accelerating in 2025, with evolving demand in inference capabilities, presenting broader growth opportunities for the communication sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - ByteDance has launched the GR-3 model, which demonstrates strong capabilities in executing complex long tasks and significant improvements in generalization, suggesting attention to related industry chain stocks [1][2]. Summary by Sections Model Development - The GR-3 model, released by ByteDance's Seed team on July 22, showcases a VLA architecture that enhances its ability to generalize to new objects and environments, understand abstract language instructions, and manipulate flexible objects precisely [2]. - Compared to the previous GR-2 model (released in October 2024), GR-3 exhibits superior operational performance in new environments and object handling, with a high accuracy in understanding complex instructions [2]. Technical Innovations - The GR-3 model integrates a MoT+DiT network structure, combining "visual-language modules" and "action generation modules" into a 4 billion parameter end-to-end model, enhancing dynamic instruction-following capabilities through RMSNorm [2]. - The training methodology for GR-3 employs a three-in-one data training approach, utilizing high-quality remote operation data, low-cost human VR trajectory data (up to 450 data points per hour), and publicly available image-text data to improve its generalization ability [2]. Hardware Development - To maximize the potential of the GR-3 model, ByteDance has introduced the ByteMini, a general-purpose dual-arm mobile robot designed specifically for GR-3 [3]. - The ByteMini features 22 degrees of freedom and a unique wrist ball joint design for human-like flexibility, a multi-camera system for comprehensive situational awareness, and a whole-body control system for smooth trajectory generation [3]. Performance Comparison - In comparative tests against the industry-leading embodied model π0, GR-3 significantly outperformed in generalization and complex task success rates [4]. - GR-3 achieved a 17.8% higher success rate in new object operations compared to π0, requiring only 10 human trajectory data points to elevate the success rate from 60% to over 80% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the phenomenon of "involution" in various industries within the A-share market, particularly emphasizing the midstream manufacturing sector's more pronounced competition compared to upstream resource industries. It notes that the willingness to expand production has significantly decreased across most industries, with over half showing strong capacity for expansion [1][2]. Existing Capacity Utilization Level - The industry capacity utilization rate is calculated using the Cobb-Douglas production function, measuring the ratio of actual output to potential maximum output under given capital and labor factors. As of Q1 2025, most industries are operating at historically low capacity utilization levels, with only the home appliance and electronics sectors showing upward trends [1]. Potential Incremental Capacity Level - The marginal changes in industry capacity will influence capacity utilization trends, particularly the timing of turning points. The willingness to expand production is assessed through the historical ratio of capital expenditures to depreciation. As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historically low levels of expansion willingness, except for utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals, which show relatively stronger willingness. The expansion capacity is primarily determined by current cash reserves and cash flow, with most primary industries at historically high levels of expansion capacity [2]. Historical Capacity Clearing in Different Industries - In emerging industries, the clearing signal is linked to cash capability and a drop in expansion willingness. For instance, the solar industry experienced a rapid decline in capacity utilization from 2011 to 2015, reaching a low point in Q1 2013, followed by two years of low-level fluctuations until significant relief in overcapacity occurred in Q2 2014 when both cash capability and expansion willingness dropped to 0%. In traditional industries like steel and coal, the clearing signal is an improvement in cash capability, with both industries undergoing a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, leading to a "V" shaped trajectory in capacity utilization [3]. Current Capacity Clearing Trajectory - Drawing from past experiences, the report discusses the current capacity clearing trajectory. In the renewable energy sector, lithium battery and solar capacity utilization rates have reached historical lows, with lithium's potential incremental capacity and utilization rates declining earlier than solar. Both sectors' expansion willingness is nearing 0% for the first time in a decade, while cash capability remains around historical median levels. Traditional industries, such as steel and coal, are not facing severe overcapacity issues like in previous cycles, with current capacity utilization rates approaching 19-year lows, and signs of improving cash capability in basic chemicals and steel [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the decline in the risk-free interest rate will be a key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025, shifting investor focus from economic cycle fluctuations to changes in discount rates [2][5] - The overall valuation center of A/H shares is expected to be adjusted upwards due to the decline in risk-free interest rates, which will enhance investor sentiment and willingness to enter the market [2][4] - Historical examples from Japan and the United States illustrate that when interest rates fall to a certain level, investor interest shifts from fixed-income products to stocks and equity products, leading to a decrease in bond market size and an increase in equity market size [3] Group 2 - The article outlines three significant periods of declining risk-free interest rates in the Chinese stock market: the first during 2014-2015, the second from 2019-2021, and the current phase expected to begin in late 2024 [4] - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant development in the nuclear fusion industry, indicating a growing trend towards commercialization and industrialization in this sector [8][9] - The investment of approximately 11.492 billion yuan by various stakeholders into China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. signifies strong support and confidence in the nuclear fusion industry, which is expected to drive further growth and innovation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The cheese industry in China is still in a growth phase, with significant potential for per capita consumption to rise compared to developed countries [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The cheese penetration rate in China is low, indicating a large industry space for growth. The per capita cheese consumption in China is only 0.2 kg, compared to Japan's 1.8 kg, highlighting substantial room for improvement [2][3]. - The domestic market is primarily focused on children's cheese products, but there is a trend towards diversifying product offerings to cater to all age groups. This shift is expected to drive growth in both consumer (C-end) and business (B-end) segments [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The supply side shows limited new entrants, leading to a more stable competitive landscape. Regulatory policies are anticipated to enhance industry concentration further [2]. - The demand side is evolving, with a gradual extension from children's cheese consumption to a broader demographic, including restaurant and snack consumption scenarios [2]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Drawing parallels with Japan's cheese industry, the article suggests that market opportunities can be seized through continuous consumer education and international cooperation. Japan's cheese consumption surged after significant cultural events and the introduction of affordable Western dining options [3]. - In Japan, by 2000, cheese products accounted for 70% of total dairy sales in supermarkets, with 74% of consumers eating cheese at least once a month, indicating a successful market penetration strategy [3].

Group 1: Core Views - The article highlights the shift in urban development in China from incremental expansion to improving existing stock, emphasizing quality and efficiency [1] - The 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Europe is approaching, with signs of warming interactions in political, economic, and technological fields [1] - Despite existing differences in market access, subsidies, and supply chain issues, there is strategic space for deepening cooperation between China and Europe, especially in green energy and digital economy [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic and Industrial Policies - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized optimizing urban structure, energy transition, quality enhancement, and green transformation [2] - The Chinese government is taking measures to regulate the instant retail market and curb "involution" competition through price subsidies [2] - New policies encouraging foreign investment reinvestment in China were announced, alongside efforts to standardize competition in the new energy vehicle sector [2] Group 3: Capital Market Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released guidelines for self-regulation of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3] - The People's Bank of China is focusing on structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation and boost consumption [3] - A significant reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan was conducted by the People's Bank of China [3] Group 4: Global Geopolitical and Economic Tracking - The article reports on increasing tariffs and trade frictions, with the U.S. imposing a 19% tariff on all imports from Indonesia and a 93.5% preliminary anti-dumping duty on graphite imports from China [4] - U.S. economic indicators show a 2.7% year-on-year increase in CPI for June, surpassing market expectations [4] - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook suggests a slowdown in U.S. economic growth over the next six months [4] Group 5: Upcoming Important Events - The first Shanghai International Low-altitude Economy Expo is scheduled from July 23 to 26, 2025 [5] - The 25th China-EU Leaders' Meeting is set for July 24 [5] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on July 31 [5]