特朗普透露，这位人选"非常受尊敬，在金融界人人皆知"，并称"这将是一个非常好的选择"。预测市场Polymarket最新显示，美联储前理事Kevin Warsh被特朗普提名为美联储新主席的概率飙升至95%。据媒体最新报道特朗普政府正筹备提名沃什出任美联储主席。德银分析沃什若当选美联储主 席，其政策主张可能呈现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。 美联储主席人选宣布在即，沃什获提名概率超8成，另有消息称特朗普政府正筹备提名沃什出任主席，德银预测其将开启"降息缩表"时代。 30日，当地时间29日，据一位知情人士透露，前美联储理事凯文·沃什当天前往白宫，与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普会面。另一位知情人士透露，这位前美 联储理事给特朗普留下了深刻印象，特朗普正在筛选人选，以接替将于5月卸任的美联储现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。 另有消息称，特朗普政府正在准备提 名沃什为美联储副主席 。 当天稍早前，美国总统特朗普表示，计划于当地时间30日上午（北京时间今晚）公布下一任美联储主席的人选。 预测市场Polymarket最新显示，美联储前理事Kevin Warsh被特朗普提名为美联储新主席的概率飙升至95%。 据媒体最新报道特朗普政府正筹备提 ...

现货黄金价格周五亚洲时段暴跌超过4%，一度失守5200美元关口。国内期货市场上，沪金、沪银主力合约跌幅 均超过2%，而前期涨势更为凶猛的铂金和钯金期货，盘中跌幅分别扩大至10%和7%。 沃什再度成为美联储主席热门人选，由于沃什长期以偏鹰派立场著称，这一预期迅速推升美元和美债收益率， 并对商品价格形成压制。内外盘期货普遍下行，贵金属成为跌幅最为集中的品种。 美东时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普表示，将于周五上午（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席提名人选。据媒 体最新报道，特朗普政府正筹备提名沃什出任美联储主席。 据德银分析沃什若当选美联储主席，其政策主张可能呈现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。投资者开始定价一个可 能更快收紧流动性的未来，周五亚太时段，美元指数快速走强，日内涨0.43%。 国内期货市场上，沪金、沪银主力合约跌幅均超过2%，而前期涨势更为凶猛的铂金和钯金期货，盘中跌幅分别 扩大至10%和7%。 | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX铅 | 1915.00d | -103.60 | -5.13% | | GFEX铂 | 640.20 | ...

Core Viewpoint - KLA Corporation's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, but the guidance for the next quarter indicates a slowdown in growth, leading to a decline in stock price post-earnings announcement [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - For Q2 of fiscal year 2026, KLA reported revenue of $3.297 billion, a 7.2% increase from $3.077 billion in the same period last year [5]. - Product revenue was $2.511 billion, and service revenue was $786 million. GAAP diluted EPS was $8.68, while non-GAAP diluted EPS was $8.85, both surpassing market expectations [5]. - CEO Rick Wallace noted that KLA achieved record highs in revenue, non-GAAP operating profit, and free cash flow for the full year, driven by a differentiated product portfolio and advancements in wafer fabrication and memory sectors [5]. Future Guidance - The guidance for Q3 indicates expected revenue of $3.35 billion, with a fluctuation of $150 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS expected to be $9.08, with a fluctuation of $0.78 [6][4]. - This guidance did not meet market expectations for accelerated growth, as the growth rate was perceived as moderate and did not reflect the strong acceleration driven by artificial intelligence [6][7]. Market Reaction - The guidance was viewed as a "mixed outlook" by the market, with discrepancies in some indicators making it difficult to form a consensus for upward revisions [7]. - Given the crowded valuation and expectations prior to the earnings release, any signals of "not significantly raised" guidance could trigger short-term rebalancing of funds, resulting in a post-earnings stock price decline [8]. Industry Context - KLA's performance reflects the overall state of the semiconductor equipment industry, with strong demand for chip manufacturing tools contributing to the company's outperformance this quarter [9]. - Despite ongoing demand driven by artificial intelligence and high-performance computing applications, the pace of equipment procurement may experience fluctuations, which is a primary concern for investors regarding stock price outlook [9].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has significantly raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 per ounce from a previous forecast of $5,000, citing stronger-than-expected demand driven by increased investment [1] Group 1: Gold Price Forecasts - UBS expects a slight decline in gold prices to $5,900 per ounce after the 2026 U.S. midterm elections [3] - The current spot gold price experienced significant volatility, peaking near $5,600 and dropping to around $5,100, with a daily fluctuation of nearly $500 [3] - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 20%, continuing the historic upward trend from last year, supported by increased investment demand, central bank purchases, dollar depreciation, and escalating geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 2: Global Gold Demand - The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that global gold demand is expected to grow by 1% year-on-year in 2025, reaching a record high of 5,002 tons, marking the first time total demand exceeds 5,000 tons [3] - Investment demand for gold is projected to surge by 84% in 2025, reaching a record 2,175 tons, primarily driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, with a net increase of 801 tons for the year [3] - Physical gold investment demand remains strong, with global demand for gold bars and coins reaching 1,374 tons, while central bank purchases totaled 863 tons, remaining high despite being lower than recent records [3] Group 3: Central Bank and Seasonal Demand - UBS has raised its gold demand forecasts for most sectors in 2026 but maintains its central bank gold purchase forecast at approximately 950 tons [4] - Poland has increased its gold holding target from 550 tons to 700 tons, which could indicate a broader trend among central banks becoming less sensitive to gold prices [4] - In China, physical gold demand remains robust due to seasonal factors and positive market sentiment, although a decline in demand is expected after the Lunar New Year [4] Group 4: Extreme Scenario Predictions - UBS provided extreme scenario forecasts for gold prices, with an upside target of $7,200 per ounce and a downside target of $4,600 per ounce [5] - A shift to a hawkish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could suppress gold prices, while a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions could drive prices higher [5]

苹果交出史上最佳季度答卷：营收1438亿美元、iPhone收入853亿美元双双创新高，大中华区增长38%。公司预计下季营收仍将两位数增长，但提示 3nm等先进节点产能约束、内存涨价或压制供给与毛利。AI方面，苹果宣布与谷歌合作开发下一代基础模型，个性化Siri"今年上线"。 1月29日，苹果公司发布 2026财年第一财季（截至2025年12月27日）业绩报告 显示，总营收、iPhone收入、服务收入等多项指标创下历史新高。在全 球科技股押注"AI+硬件换机"的背景下，市场对苹果这份假日季财报的关注点集中在三件事： iPhone 17的换机强度能否延续 、 中国需求是否真正回暖 、以及在 内存涨价与先进制程产能紧张 的情况下，苹果能否守住利润率与供给节奏。 更引人瞩目的是，CEO库克在财报电话会上宣布，苹果正与谷歌合作开发下一代Apple基础模型，这将为今年推出的更个性化Siri提供动力。这一合作 标志着苹果在AI战略上的重大转向，库克表示： "我们认为谷歌的AI技术将为Apple基础模型提供最强大的基础，我们相信通过这一合作能够解锁大量体验并以关键方式进行创新。" iPhone引爆超级周期，所有地区创历史新高 ...

闪迪确立了AI对存储行业的重塑，管理层直言NAND正摆脱周期品属性成为"AI基础设施的关键组 件"。公司本季度数据中心营收环比激增64%，预计2026年将首超移动端成为NAND最大市场。Q3毛 利率指引高达67%，显示其在"严重缺货"环境下的强劲定价权。不过，闪迪仍然坚持现有资本支出计 划，拒绝盲目扩产。 美股周四盘后，存储巨头闪迪（SanDisk）召开2026财年第二季度财报电话会议。 面对盘后一度飙升15%的股价，公司管理层在电话会中不仅确认了全面超出预期的亮眼业绩，更向市 场传递了一个明确信号： AI对存储的需求并非昙花一现，而是一场正在发生的结构性变革。 不仅是热度，更是真金白银："数据中心2026年将成NAND最大市场" 市场最关心的问题在于：AI的热度是否已经转化为实际的营收？存储究竟是短期行情还是长期结构性 变化？ 对此，闪迪CEO戴维·戈克勒（David Goeckeler）在会上直言： "这是第一次，数据中心预计将在 2026（日历）年首次成为NAND的最大市场。" 这或意味着，过去十几年由智能手机和PC主导存储周期的时代即将结束，AI基础设施建设成为了新的 核心引擎。随着AI推理（Infe ...

沃什在一场深度访谈中直言通胀是美联储的责任，不能归咎于外界因素。作为接替鲍威尔的热门人选，他给出的改革方案并非推倒重来，而是主张美联储 需要"复兴"而非"革命"。针对高利率困境，沃什认为，可以通过缩表换取低利率空间。"如果我们让印钞机安静一点，利率其实可以更低。" 近日，特朗普亲信推举沃什当美联储主席。如果明年凯文·沃什接掌美联储，市场可能会看到几十年来美联储最显著的政策转向之一。 今年早些时候，在一场与胡佛研究所主持人彼得·罗宾逊（Peter Robinson）的对谈中，沃什毫不避讳地指出了当前美联储体系的沉疴，并抛出了一个 论断： "通胀是一种选择（Inflation is a choice）。" 他驳斥了将通胀归咎于供应链或地缘政治的借口，坚持认为央行完全有能力决定价格水平，现在 的局面正是美联储错误选择的结果。 沃什的核心论点建立在对"自满"的批判之上。他指出，美联储在"大稳健"时期（Great Moderation）之后误以为通胀已死，从而在非危机时期维持了过 于庞大的资产负债表。引用沃什的原话： "当你不断地这里印一万亿，那里印一万亿，这早晚会找上门来。" 他认为，美联储在2010年至2020年的 ...

美元跌至四年低点叠加中国投资者疯狂涌入，铜价单日暴涨11%创十六年最大涨幅，首次突破14500美元历史高位！但狂欢背后隐忧浮现：实物需求疲 软，监管层紧急降温，高盛警告技术性调整将至。 周四下午，铜价一度飙升11%，首次突破每吨14500美元的历史高位，随后在高位出现急剧回调。自12月初以来，铜价已累计上涨约21%。 本周金属价格的飙升与宏观经济环境紧密相关。 美元指数跌至四年多低点，使得以美元计价的大宗商品对许多买家更具吸引力。 此外，特朗普对美元疲软表示并不担忧的信号，进一步鼓励投资者抛 售美国国债，转而青睐大宗商品。 此次暴涨恰逢美元汇率跌至四年多来的最低点，促使中国投资者大规模转向大宗商品市场，从锡到白银等各类金属价格均被推向历史新高。 这波由中 国交易员主导的买盘在伦敦时间凌晨2:30引爆市场，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价在不到一小时内上涨超过5%，六大基本金属指数收盘创下历史纪 录。 这一戏剧性的行情让资深市场人士感到震惊。据彭博，拥有三十年铜市场经验的前Trafigura Group 交易员 Mark Thompson 表示："这样的行情一辈子 可能只能遇到一次，我们距离2万美元的铜价仅差一次供 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported a significant capital expenditure of $37.5 billion in a single quarter, which exceeded market expectations, but this did not lead to a notable acceleration in cloud business growth. The company is prioritizing the allocation of new computing power to self-developed AI products and internal research rather than solely focusing on revenue-generating Azure cloud services, leading to market concerns about short-term capital efficiency and return visibility [1][6]. Financial Performance - In Q2 of FY2026, Microsoft achieved revenue of $81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, surpassing market expectations by 1%. Non-GAAP EPS was $4.41, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 5%. Azure cloud business grew by 38% at constant currency, slightly above Wall Street's forecast of 37% [3][5]. Capital Expenditure Concerns - Investors expressed concerns over Microsoft's rising capital expenditures, which reached $37.5 billion in the quarter, 9% higher than market expectations. The market anticipated that such a substantial investment would lead to a significant acceleration in Azure's growth rate, which did not materialize immediately [6][7]. Strategic Allocation of Resources - Goldman Sachs noted that Microsoft's strategy involves sacrificing short-term Azure revenue growth to prioritize computing power for first-party applications (like Copilot) and internal R&D projects. This strategic choice is expected to drive more meaningful AI positioning and better returns in the medium term [6][7]. Azure Capacity Constraints - Microsoft management indicated that Azure is currently facing capacity limitations rather than a lack of demand. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the guidance for Azure growth of 37%-38% in Q3 should be viewed as a reflection of capacity allocation rather than pure demand. If capacity had not been directed towards first-party applications and internal R&D, Azure's revenue growth rate could have exceeded 40% [8]. Copilot Commercialization - The commercialization path for Copilot is becoming clearer, with adoption and usage accelerating. The number of paid seats for M365 Copilot increased by 160% year-on-year, reaching 15 million. Goldman Sachs believes that Copilot will have a better customer lifetime value to customer acquisition cost ratio compared to Azure, due to its higher gross margins and customer stickiness [9]. Valuation Adjustments - Based on the limited visibility regarding the timeline for capital expenditures to translate into revenue growth, Goldman Sachs adjusted Microsoft's valuation model, lowering the target P/E ratio from 32x to 28x, resulting in a target price reduction to $600. Key downside risks include lower-than-expected revenue contributions from the OpenAI partnership, prolonged ramp-up times for internal chip production, and potential negative impacts from significant leadership changes [10].

《华尔街日报》报道称，OpenAI正与华尔街贷款机构就潜在的首次公开募股(IPO)进行非正式会谈，并且正在扩大其财务团队。 人工智能初创公司OpenAI正准备在2026年第四季度公开上市，消息来源于知情人士。 据悉，OpenAI正在加速其IPO进程，因担忧竞争对手Anthropic可能抢先在公开市场上市。最近有报道称，Anthropic也在考虑在2026年底上 市。 公开募股预计将帮助OpenAI巩固其财务状况，因为该公司每年需要消耗数百亿美元来构建和运行其AI模型。 该公司已从包括微软公司(NASDAQ: MSFT )、软银集团(TYO: 9984 )和英伟达公司(NASDAQ: NVDA )在内的全球主要科技公司筹集了数十 亿美元资金。最近的报道显示，该公司正与亚马逊(NASDAQ: AMZN )就高达500亿美元的新融资进行谈判。 最近的报道显示，OpenAI正寻求以8300亿美元的估值从全球多家投资者那里筹集1000亿美元。该初创公司的任何公开募股都有望成为有史以 来规模最大的募股之一。 ...