[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 通信 2025 年 03 月 01 日 通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《IDC 行业深度：DeepSeek 加速 国产算力链形成闭环，价值网络有望 井喷》，2025.2.25 2.《DeepSeek 打破 scaling law，国 产 基 础 设 施 打 造 价 值 网 络 》， 2025.2.22 3.《DeepSeek 加速基础设施和商业 模式成熟》，2025.2.15 4.《DeepSeek 快速渗透，商业模式 优势加速基础设施爆发》，2025.2.8 5.《DeepSeek，中国算力模式胜出 的加速器》，2025.2.5 DeepSeek 开源的杀伤力 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1.投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The low-altitude industry is in its early stages, characterized by a combination of rule establishment, policy support, and technological innovation, with the potential to reach a market size of 10 trillion yuan [4][20] - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI and low-altitude sectors, leveraging its resources and market mechanisms to drive growth and innovation [5][9] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The low-altitude economy in China reached 505.95 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 33.8%, and is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026 [4][32] - AI is considered the core of the low-altitude industry, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs significantly [4][46] - The company has signed over 15 strategic cooperation agreements in low-altitude regions, indicating strong market demand and potential for nationwide standard-setting [6] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to be 3.257 billion yuan in 2024, 4.311 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.174 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.5%, 32.3%, and 43.2% respectively [10][32] - Net profit is expected to reach 352 million yuan in 2024, 490 million yuan in 2025, and 809 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 2.7%, 39.3%, and 65.1% respectively [10][32] Distinct Perspectives from the Market - The company is redefined as a generative AI application company rather than a traditional remote sensing satellite application company, with potential for subscription-based revenue models [11] - The company is actively leading the upgrade of business models in the low-altitude sector, moving towards an AI SaaS enterprise model [11] - The company possesses comprehensive capabilities in IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS for low-altitude operations, positioning it well for future growth [11][12] Market Catalysts - The acceleration of low-altitude infrastructure support policies and the signing of strategic cooperation agreements are key factors that could drive the company's growth [14]

Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The national two sessions are expected to maintain a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, with a strong emphasis on boosting consumption[5] - Local governments are prioritizing domestic demand expansion, with 13 provinces adjusting their retail sales growth targets for 2025 compared to 2024[11] - The focus on consumption and domestic demand is reflected in the increased frequency of related terms in government work reports, rising from 2 mentions in 2024 to 10 for domestic demand and 9 for consumption in 2025[11][19] Key Areas of Reform and Development - The report highlights four key reform areas: unifying the national market, promoting high-quality development of the private economy, deepening state-owned enterprise reform, and improving the business environment[5][6] - Five major industrial themes for 2025 include AI and AI+, quality consumption, new urbanization, infrastructure expansion overseas, and food security[5][7] Signals from Local Governments - Local two sessions emphasize "expanding domestic demand," focusing on consumption and effective investment[11] - The collective learning sessions indicate a strong push for consumption enhancement, with multiple directives from the State Council aimed at stimulating domestic demand[5][8] - Economic provinces are focusing on "new quality productivity," while debt-reduction provinces are prioritizing "high-quality development" as key areas of attention[5][8] Consumption and Investment Strategies - Specific strategies to boost consumption include implementing trade-in policies and fostering new consumption models such as the "silver economy" and "ice and snow economy"[21][22] - The report suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will work in tandem to support domestic demand expansion and structural adjustments[5][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from the "software era" to the "intelligent era," focusing on digital transformation in manufacturing for over 40 years, with a steady revenue growth of over 10% annually in the last three years [6][14]. - The company achieved a net profit of 150 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [23]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on global manufacturing shifts, leveraging its extensive experience in the manufacturing sector and a comprehensive industrial software product matrix [6][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, founded in 1982 in Taiwan, has expanded its operations from Taiwan to mainland China and Southeast Asia, focusing on manufacturing ERP and now offering a full-stack industrial software layout [14][15]. - It has over 50,000 clients and maintains a leading market share in manufacturing ERP products in mainland China [14][39]. 2. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.228 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [23]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.558 billion, 2.990 billion, and 3.494 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14.82%, 16.90%, and 16.84% [6][24]. 3. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the IDC's evaluation of digital factory solution providers in China, focusing on sectors such as electronics, semiconductors, and automotive parts [6][39]. - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities through the Athena platform, which is expected to drive significant growth in AI applications and customer engagement [6][39]. 4. Product and Service Offerings - The company has developed a comprehensive industrial software product matrix, covering digital management, research and design, production control, and AIoT services [17][39]. - The introduction of AI-integrated products, such as the new generation PLM system and Chat CAD, aims to enhance operational efficiency and product quality [46][47]. 5. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation in manufacturing, with a strong focus on AI and intelligent manufacturing solutions [6][39]. - The strategic partnerships and continuous innovation in AI applications are anticipated to further enhance the company's market position and revenue growth [6][39].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460.HK) [1] Core Views - China Resources Beverage has established itself as the second-largest packaged water company and the largest drinking purified water company in China, with market shares of 18.4% and 32.7% respectively in 2023 [4][16] - The company is expanding its beverage categories, achieving significant market shares in tea, juice, and coffee beverages, and is progressing towards a multi-category development strategy [4][16] - The report anticipates revenue growth driven by increased self-production rates and a reduction in service fees, alongside national expansion and the development of the beverage segment [4][22] Company Overview - China Resources Beverage has been deeply involved in the water beverage industry for decades, gradually expanding its beverage categories [4][13] - The company has a clear and stable shareholding structure, with its controlling shareholder, China Resources Group, being a state-owned diversified holding enterprise [4][17] - The management team has extensive industry experience, which aids in the execution of strategic initiatives [4][19] Packaging Water Market - The packaging water industry is experiencing stable growth, driven by increasing health awareness and demand for bottled water [4][30] - The market size for packaged water in China grew from 152.6 billion to 215 billion yuan from 2018 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% [4][34] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a stable oligopoly, with China Resources Beverage holding a significant market share in the purified water segment [4][31] Financial Analysis - The company's revenue increased from 113.4 billion yuan in 2021 to 135.15 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.2% [4][22] - The beverage segment has shown remarkable growth, with revenues rising from 5.22 billion yuan in 2021 to 10.68 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 43% [4][22] - The report projects revenues of 143.3 billion, 154.2 billion, and 167 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 16.2 billion, 19.9 billion, and 23.2 billion yuan [4][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector, emphasizing the importance of low-positioned investment opportunities due to favorable policy expectations [5]. - The white liquor sector is expected to see a valuation recovery driven by improved consumption policies and market adjustments by major companies [10]. - The beer sector faces short-term performance pressure but is anticipated to benefit from structural upgrades as consumer demand improves [11]. - The dairy sector is projected to recover gradually, with a focus on high-end and diversified products [12]. - The snack food sector is expected to maintain growth potential due to channel evolution and the emergence of new consumption patterns [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The white liquor sector is experiencing a recovery trend, with major companies adjusting market supply to stabilize prices [10]. - The beer sector's performance is under pressure, but structural upgrades are expected to continue as consumer demand improves [11]. - The dairy sector is focusing on high-end products and diversified offerings, with a gradual recovery anticipated [12]. 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 0.09% against the index's 1.00% rise [17]. - Various sub-sectors within food and beverage showed mixed performance, with some segments like white liquor and dairy experiencing gains, while others like soft drinks and snacks faced declines [21]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks price movements in various segments, including white liquor, beer, and dairy products, indicating fluctuations in market prices and production volumes [30][36][40]. - The average price of fresh milk and other dairy products has shown slight variations, reflecting market dynamics [40]. 4. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include share reduction plans by Dongpeng Beverage and financial adjustments by other companies in the sector [61]. 5. Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include shareholder meetings for various companies, indicating ongoing corporate governance activities within the sector [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company has exceeded market expectations with a projected net profit growth of 236%-260% for 2024, reaching approximately 1.4-1.5 billion [9] - The growth is attributed to enhanced brand strength, significant revenue increases from existing stores, continuous product optimization, and the opening of new stores [9] - The company is expanding its presence in the mainland China market, with plans to increase the number of stores to 50-60 [10][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant absolute and relative growth over the past months, with a 57.52% increase over 1 month and 169.14% over 3 months [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to 85.32 billion, 142.98 billion, and 198.49 billion respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 14.61 billion, 25.01 billion, and 35.16 billion [40] Consumer Trends - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing preservation of wealth, with high-net-worth individuals increasingly purchasing second-hand luxury goods [14][15] - The company is well-positioned to capture this demand as gold becomes a preferred investment choice over diamonds [14] Product Strategy - The company has a strong product design capability, integrating traditional cultural elements into new offerings, which enhances its competitive edge [22] - Pricing strategy involves a fixed price model with periodic increases, creating a perception of value retention among consumers [23] Market Expansion - The company has established a presence in key cities in mainland China and is planning further expansion, with a current total of 33 stores [26] - Internationally, the company is set to open its first store in Singapore, marking its entry into Southeast Asia [36] Brand Development - The company is leveraging social media platforms to enhance brand visibility and attract a broader customer base, with a current membership of 275,000 [15][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting a focus on undervalued small-cap biotech stocks, with several stocks having increased over 50% year-to-date [6][9]. - Key companies to watch include Genscript Biotech, HAPO, and HUYU Pharmaceuticals, among others, due to their promising pipelines and market potential [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Small-Cap Biotech Stocks - The report emphasizes the recovery of liquidity in the Hong Kong market, leading to strong performance in small-cap biotech stocks, with many showing over 50% gains this year [6][9]. - Suggested companies for investment include Genscript Biotech, HAPO, HUYU Pharmaceuticals, and others due to their low price-to-book (PB) ratios [6][9]. 1.1. Genscript Biotech - Genscript's ASC30, a GLP-1 receptor agonist for obesity, has shown promising interim results in a Phase Ib trial, with weight reductions of 4.3% and 6.3% in different cohorts [11][12]. - ASC30 is noted for its unique dosing options, potentially positioning it as a best-in-class treatment [12]. 1.2. HAPO Pharmaceuticals - HAPO has a robust innovation platform with multiple potential products in development, including a licensing agreement that could yield up to $970 million in payments [15][19]. - The company is also collaborating with AI-driven platforms to enhance drug development processes [19][20]. 1.3. HUYU Pharmaceuticals - HUYU's Irpagatinib has entered registration clinical trials for liver cancer, with expectations to turn profitable in 2024, projecting revenues of approximately RMB 504 million [21][27]. - The company is focusing on innovative treatments for cancer, particularly targeting FGF19 overexpression in liver cancer patients [23][25]. 1.4. DEQI Pharmaceuticals - DEQI's new indication for its drug has been included in the national medical insurance directory, enhancing its market access [28]. - The company plans to invest in AI capabilities to accelerate drug development, leveraging its existing resources and partnerships [31]. 2. Market Performance Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector index rose by 1.88% from February 17 to February 21, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.87% [32]. - Year-to-date, the sector index has increased by 3.93%, again surpassing the CSI 300 index [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by the expectation of a Fed rate cut and supportive domestic monetary and fiscal policies. Precious metals are anticipated to experience a long-term bull market, with domestic demand-related varieties expected to show greater elasticity [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a performance of -15% to +29% over the specified periods, compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices have decreased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 closing at 683 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of -0.5%. In contrast, the COMEX gold futures price is at 2950 USD per ounce, with a weekly change of +1.9% [16][19]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have declined, with SHFE copper at 77020 CNY per ton, down 1.4% weekly, while LME copper is at 9494 USD per ton, down 3.2% weekly. The report notes a divergence in metal prices, with aluminum prices increasing [36][37][48]. 4. Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have risen, while tungsten concentrate prices have fallen. The report suggests that the recovery in manufacturing may boost tungsten demand in the medium to long term [10]. 5. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, while the report highlights the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [10]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining, as well as industrial metals companies like China Hongqiao and Yunnan Copper [9]. 7. Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the U.S. CPI for January was 3.00% year-on-year, while China's CPI was 0.50% year-on-year, indicating differing inflationary pressures [28]. 8. Supply Chain Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports, which may disrupt global supply chains and affect the recovery of the global economy [7]. 9. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the Fed's monetary policy will support the non-ferrous metals sector, with industrial metal prices expected to rebound due to favorable economic policies [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the resilience of the coal and coke-steel sectors, suggesting a positive feedback loop in profitability as demand recovers and macroeconomic expectations improve [4][5] - It emphasizes the potential for price rebounds in coking coal and thermal coal due to supportive macroeconomic policies and demand recovery [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: Thermal coal prices have decreased, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 719 RMB/ton, down 22 RMB/ton (-2.97%) [12][14]. Coking coal prices also fell, with the main coking coal at 1430 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton (-2.05%) [18][19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port decreased by 5.93%, while port throughput increased by 18.04% [34]. The overall coal inventory at major ports rose by 3.36% [40]. - **International Market**: International coal prices have declined, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal at 77.75 USD/ton, down 1.2 USD/ton (-1.52%) [47][50]. The price gap between domestic and international coal has widened [51]. 2. Market Performance - The coal sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 4.31% compared to a 0.97% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [53]. 3. Recent Important Events - The report notes regulatory developments in Hebei province aimed at enhancing safety in coal mining operations [56]. Additionally, it mentions operational updates from major companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coking Coal regarding production and safety compliance [59].