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九华旅游(603199):全年稳健兑现增长,新项目有序落地优化景区供给
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-19 07:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiuhua Tourism, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Views - Jiuhua Tourism achieved a revenue of 764 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 186 million yuan, up by 6.5% [1][2]. - The company experienced a significant increase in customer traffic, with over 10 million visitors to Jiuhua Mountain Scenic Area, leading to tourism revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan [2]. - The operational efficiency and profitability of Jiuhua Tourism have shown steady improvement, with a gross profit margin of 50.2% in 2024, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, Jiuhua Tourism's revenue was 764 million yuan, with a projected increase to 834 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 9.15% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 186 million yuan in 2024 to 205 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 9.94% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.68 yuan, with a forecasted increase to 1.85 yuan in 2025 [4]. Business Development - The company is actively advancing key project constructions, including the completion of the transportation hub project and the commencement of the Lion Peak Scenic Area cable car project, which are expected to enhance regional development [3]. - The operational improvements and new projects are anticipated to sustain high-quality growth, especially with the extended peak season during the 2025 Spring Festival [3].
BOSS直聘(BZ):2024Q4业绩点评:春招数据展现积极改善趋势,关注AI赋能催化
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-18 08:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin [9] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 1.824 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, exceeding the upper limit of the previous guidance [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached 659 million yuan, up 26.8%, while Non-GAAP net profit was 722 million yuan, an increase of 14.9% [1] - The company expects Q1 2025 revenue to be between 1.90 billion and 1.92 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 11.5% to 12.7% [1] - The spring recruitment data shows a positive improvement trend, with the number of active job postings and new job postings reaching historical highs [3] - The company continues to invest in AI technology, which is expected to drive cost reduction and new product revenue [3] Financial Summary - In Q4 2024, B-end revenue was 1.804 billion yuan, up 15.2%, with a total of 6.1 million enterprise paying customers, a 17.3% increase [2] - The average monthly active users (MAU) reached 52.7 million, a 27.9% increase year-on-year [2] - The company's gross margin for Q4 2024 was 82.8%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 36.1% [2] - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 estimates Non-GAAP operating profits of 3.044 billion, 3.530 billion, and 3.953 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profits are projected to be 3.247 billion, 3.630 billion, and 3.990 billion yuan for the same period [3] Market Position - The company has established a competitive advantage in the online recruitment sector through its "mobile + intelligent matching + direct chat" business model [3] - The contribution of key accounts (KA) to B-end revenue increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year, with KA customers generating 1.772 billion yuan in revenue, a 40% increase [2]
远东宏信(03360):深度报告:租赁+产业运营:稳健经营,探索出海,提高分红
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-18 01:34
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Far East Horizon (3360.HK) with a target price of HKD 7.4, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 6.43 [4]. Core Insights - Far East Horizon is a comprehensive group straddling financial and industrial sectors, backed by state-owned enterprises, with a stable shareholding structure and experienced management [1][12]. - The company has diversified its operations from leasing to a comprehensive service provider, with main business segments including financial and consulting services, equipment operation, and hospital operation, contributing 57.5%, 30.68%, and 10.84% to revenue in 2024, respectively [1][13]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 30% since its listing in 2011, with a notable increase to 56.2% in 2024, and a dividend yield of 9.7%, surpassing the industry average of 6.2% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Far East Horizon operates as an independent business leasing company and is the largest in China, serving over 30,000 clients with a cumulative funding scale of approximately CNY 1 trillion [13]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure with major shareholders including Sinochem Capital Investment Management (21.29%) and others, ensuring strategic consistency [1][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total assets of CNY 360.39 billion and equity of CNY 48.99 billion, with a slight increase in total assets by 2.5% year-on-year [14]. - Revenue from financial and consulting services decreased by 7.1% to CNY 217.06 billion, while equipment operation revenue increased by 20.5% to CNY 115.81 billion [24]. - The overall operating income for 2024 was CNY 400.41 billion, reflecting a decline of 1.43% compared to the previous year [30]. Business Segments - The financial and consulting services segment remains the largest revenue contributor, although its share has decreased, while the equipment operation segment has shown significant growth [24]. - The hospital operation segment reported a revenue of CNY 40.93 billion, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, but with a gross profit increase of 7.5% to CNY 8.09 billion [3][14]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are CNY 385.4 billion, CNY 398.2 billion, and CNY 417.9 billion, with expected growth rates of 2.1%, 3.3%, and 5.0%, respectively [3]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of CNY 40.1 billion, CNY 42.3 billion, and CNY 44.8 billion over the same period, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.87, CNY 0.92, and CNY 0.97 [3].
信达澳亚量化产品简评:领先的投研体系创造稳健超额回报
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-18 01:23
- The quantitative research team of Xinda Aoya has a top-tier member configuration and a leading research system[1][2][3] - The team manages several actively managed equity quantitative products, each with different index tracking characteristics, and all have achieved stable excess returns over various periods[3][13] - The product design fully analyzes the industry distribution, style characteristics, and component features of the tracked index, and explores applicable factors based on the index characteristics[3] - The team combines broader earnings forecast expansion information, uses dynamic weights and machine learning methods to form portfolios, reduces correlation between strategies, and enhances the stability of product excess returns[3][13] - The "index+" products managed by the team have ranked among the top in the market in terms of excess returns since their inception, and their risk-adjusted returns are in the top 20% of similar products[3][13] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Index+ Products** - **Model Construction Idea:** Fully analyze the industry distribution, style characteristics, and component features of the tracked index, and explore applicable factors based on the index characteristics[3] - **Model Construction Process:** Combine broader earnings forecast expansion information, use dynamic weights and machine learning methods to form portfolios, reduce correlation between strategies, and enhance the stability of product excess returns[3][13] - **Model Evaluation:** The "index+" products have achieved stable excess returns and ranked among the top in the market[3][13] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Xinda Multi-Factor CSI 500**, Excess Return: 1.66%, Excess Volatility: 4.65%, Excess Sharpe: 4.64, Annualized Excess: 8.71%, Excess Sharpe Rank: 4/63[14] 2. **Xinda Star Selection CSI 1000**, Excess Return: 0.36%, Excess Volatility: 5.91%, Excess Sharpe: 0.51, Annualized Excess: 13.61%, Excess Sharpe Rank: 18/39[14] 3. **Xinda Core Selection CSI 300**, Excess Return: 1.49%, Excess Volatility: 3.70%, Excess Sharpe: 2.47, Annualized Excess: 4.95%, Excess Sharpe Rank: 14/58[14] 4. **Xinda Star Yuxuan CSI 2000**, Excess Return: 0.37%, Excess Volatility: 8.80%, Excess Sharpe: 0.42, Annualized Excess: 15.68%[14] 5. **Xinda Star Liang CSI 2000**, Excess Return: -2.47%, Excess Volatility: 11.34%, Annualized Excess: 14.80%[14] 6. **Xinda Sci-Tech Innovation 50**, Excess Return: 2.80%, Excess Volatility: 5.39%, Excess Sharpe: 3.56, Annualized Excess: 16.44%[14] 7. **Xinda Dividend Selection CSI Dividend**, Excess Return: 0.09%, Excess Volatility: 2.44%, Excess Sharpe: 0.19, Annualized Excess: 4.88%[14] 8. **Xinda State-Owned Enterprise Selection CSI SOE**, Excess Return: 0.60%, Excess Volatility: 3.15%, Excess Sharpe: 1.14, Annualized Excess: 10.82%[14] 9. **Xinda Ningjun Selection Mixed Fund Index**, Excess Return: -3.87%, Excess Volatility: 5.63%, Annualized Excess: 0.36%[14]
深海科技首次纳入政府工作报告,关注深海科技投资机会
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-17 07:41
[Table_Info1] 国防军工 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2025-03-17 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业周报 深海科技首次纳入政府工作报告,关注深海科技投资机会 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 板块回顾:上周申万国防军工指数上涨 2.57%,上证指数上涨 1.39%,深 证成指上涨 1.24%,创业板指数上涨 0.97%,沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%, 国防军工板块涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 9。截至周五收盘,申 万国防军工板块 PE(TTM)为 68.17 倍,各子板块中航天装备为 109.68 倍, 航空装备为 59.16 倍,地面兵装为 61.96 倍,航海装备为 84.03 倍,军工 电子为 73.09 倍。 持续关注低空经济产业发展机会。亿航智能发布 2024Q4 及全年财报。 2024 年,亿航智能 EH216 系列无人驾驶航空器交付数量达到 216 架, 较 2023 年的 52 架增长 315.4%。总收入为 4.562 亿元,同比增长 288.5%, 首次实现全财年非美国通用会计准则 ...
东北固收专题报告:东盟专题系列2:从泛亚铁路到泛东亚经贸发展
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-17 02:46
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The construction of the Pan-Asian Railway, particularly the China-Laos Railway, significantly enhances the economic landscape of the region, allowing landlocked Laos to efficiently export its abundant mineral resources, thus improving its economic prospects [1][3][27] - The trade relationship between China and ASEAN has become increasingly tight, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner, accounting for 16.4% of China's export regions in 2024, while China holds a 15.7% share in ASEAN's export regions [2][32] - The completion of the Pan-Asian Railway is expected to accelerate the economic integration and trade dynamics between China and ASEAN countries, enhancing trade diversity and reducing reliance on specific import sources [2][31] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Railways on Economic Landscape - The Pan-Asian Railway is a vast network aimed at connecting the entire Eurasian continent, with significant implications for regional trade and economic development [8][9] - The Southeast Asia segment of the railway, which includes key countries like China, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, and Malaysia, is crucial for enhancing connectivity and trade efficiency [14][16] 2. Trade Dynamics between China and ASEAN - The bilateral trade between China and Laos has seen rapid growth post the operation of the China-Laos Railway, with Laos benefiting from improved export capabilities for its mineral resources [31] - The report highlights that the trade share of ASEAN in China's exports is expected to rise, with the potential for ASEAN to become a global low-end manufacturing and transshipment center [2][32] 3. Future Prospects and Developments - The ongoing construction of the China-Vietnam and China-Thailand railways is anticipated to further strengthen trade ties and economic integration in the region [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the Pan-Asian Railway's development is essential for overcoming logistical constraints faced by developing countries, enabling them to seize more growth opportunities [3][27]
数字经济行业周观点:华为中国合作伙伴大会+英伟达GTC大会,AI行业再迎国内外催化-2025-03-17
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-17 02:42
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业动态报告 华为中国合作伙伴大会+英伟达 GTC 大会,AI 行业再迎国内外催化 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 市场机会分析: 2025 年华为中国合作伙伴大会将于 3 月 20 日至 21 日在深圳国际会展 中心(宝安)举行,主题为 "因聚而生 众智有为",旨在聚合伙伴能力, 加速千行万业数智化转型;同时,英伟达 GTC 2025 大会将于当地时间 3 月 17 日至 21 日在美国加州圣何塞举办。国内外几乎同时举办的两场 大会将同时聚焦 AI 软硬件产业发展,通过对基础硬件设施、大模型本 体、AI 智能体以及各行业应用的讨论,为我们展现未来 1-3 年 AI 领域 的发展趋势。我们坚定看好国内外 AI 产业的发展,两场大会将为 AI 行 业带来更为清晰的未来指引,同时对相关标的带来催化。 相关标的: 合作伙伴:科大讯飞、中软国际、软通动力、常山北明、美林数据、东 软集团 量子计算:国盾量子、神州信息 风险提示:交通信息化、财税改革进展、数据要素政策、信创推进、AI 和国际政治发展不及预期。 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 请务必阅读正文 ...
京东健康(06618):2024财报点评:利润表现超预期,加大投入抢占市场份额
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-17 02:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [5][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 58.2 billion (+8.6%) for the full year 2024, with a notable increase in service revenue by 18.9% to 9.4 billion, reflecting a strategic focus on expanding market share [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit reached 4.79 billion (+15.9%), with a significant increase in attributable net profit by 94.3% to 4.16 billion, showcasing strong profitability growth [1][3]. - The company is leveraging AI technology and digital tools to enhance operational efficiency, resulting in a reduction of administrative costs by 1.3 percentage points [2]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a gross profit of 13.3 billion (+12.2%) with a gross margin of 22.9% (+0.7 percentage points) in 2024 [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 66.9 billion, 76.1 billion, and 86.5 billion respectively, with attributable net profits expected to be 3.59 billion, 4.13 billion, and 4.79 billion [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.12, 1.29, and 1.50 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. User Growth and Market Position - The company has expanded its active user base to 184 million (+6.6%), with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of 317 yuan (+2.0%) [1]. - Daily online consultations have exceeded 490,000 (+8.9%), indicating a strong demand for its services [2]. - The integration of AI in healthcare services is expected to open new commercial pathways, particularly in B2B services, under the supportive policy environment for "AI + healthcare" [2].
量化资产配置系列之二:多资产相关性研究
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-17 02:04
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 /金融工程研究报告 多资产相关性研究 ---量化资产配置系列之二 报告摘要: 在资产配置研究中,多资产收益间的相关性是控制组合波动的关键,股 票和债券作为两大核心资产,其收益之间的关联性一直都是研究的重点。 本文将从股债相关性切入,搭建适合衡量动态相关性的模型,将其运用 于调整多资产收益协方差矩阵,实现量化资产配置策略的优化。 股票和债券回报之间的相关性对资产配置和风险管理策略实施有着直接 影响,同时一定程度上对应市场环境的变化。在股债相关性预期较高的 时期,投资者可以减少股票和债券之间的对冲效果,适当调整资产权重, 以降低组合风险。相反,如果预期相关性较低,可以增加债券的配置比 例,利用债券的避险属性。 滚动取过去一段窗口期的收益序列,直接计算相关性(RWC),是估计股 债相关性最简单的方式,但弊端也很明显:1)不能充分地体现相关性在 时间序列上的变化,对新信息的反应较为滞后;2)异常的收益数据会导 致估计值出现跳跃式变化,不利于进行趋势分析。 DCC 模型能更好的捕捉相关性的动态变化。作为短期波动的估计, DCC_CORR 日频序列噪音相对较少,受异常值影响小,且 ...
361度(01361):2024年报点评:终端表现领先行业,盈利能力保持稳健
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-03-13 12:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 361 Degrees [4][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 19.6% year-on-year to 10.07 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 19.5% to 1.15 billion yuan for the year 2024 [1][3]. - The company continues to outperform the industry in terminal performance, with significant growth in adult footwear and apparel, as well as children's clothing [1][2]. - The company has successfully upgraded its store image and introduced a new super product store format, enhancing its brand presence [2][3]. - The company's gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 41.5%, attributed to effective cost control and pricing strategies [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 13.8%, 11.1%, and 10.1% in the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profit growth of 15.2%, 11.2%, and 10.4% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 10.07 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, also up by 19.5% [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.265 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 45% [1]. Operational Highlights - The company added 16 adult stores, bringing the total to 5,750, with an average store size increase of 11 square meters [2]. - E-commerce revenue grew by 12.2% to 2.61 billion yuan, accounting for 25.9% of total revenue [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenue of 11.47 billion yuan in 2025, 12.74 billion yuan in 2026, and 14.03 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits projected at 1.32 billion yuan, 1.47 billion yuan, and 1.62 billion yuan respectively [3][4].