Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's Keling technology is positioned to lead in the multi-modal video generation space, with significant competitive advantages and ongoing technological iterations [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of video generation model advancements and AI empowerment in existing business operations [4][8]. - Kuaishou's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at CNY 127.19 billion, CNY 141.03 billion, and CNY 154.13 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of CNY 15.22 billion, CNY 19.05 billion, and CNY 23.42 billion [9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Video Generation Model Development - The video generation model is entering a rapid development phase, with Kuaishou's Keling technology being a top player globally, particularly in core evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control [22][31]. - The DiT architecture is identified as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou quickly achieving technological breakthroughs [22][23]. Section 2: Kuaishou's Competitive Position - Keling's technological capabilities and data resource advantages position it favorably for future developments in the AI-driven content community [8][19]. - Kuaishou's strategic focus and unified organizational structure enhance its execution efficiency [8][19]. Section 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and daily average usage time maintained at high levels [8][9]. - The e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market, while online marketing services are projected to increase by 15.6% [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the U.S. deficit and regional conflicts are driving price increases, with a focus on investment opportunities in gold and minor metals [14]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $307 billion in February, a 4% year-on-year increase, raising inflation concerns and pushing COMEX gold prices above $3,000 per ounce, marking a historical high [14]. - The conflict in eastern Congo has led to the suspension of operations at a major tin mine, causing tin prices to surge to $37,000 per ton, the highest since June 2022 [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar increased to 2.33 million tons, a 5.84% week-on-week rise, while the overall price index for common steel saw a slight increase of 0.29% [15][40]. - The average daily pig iron production among 247 steel companies was 230.59 thousand tons, showing a minimal increase of 0.03% [25]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in the profitability of long and short process rebar production, with long process margins down by 22 CNY/ton and short process margins down by 16 CNY/ton [37]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the TC/RC negative values are deepening, suggesting a potential for continued copper price increases, with LME aluminum prices rising to $2,713 per ton, a 0.74% week-on-week increase [17]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for copper is expected to grow due to sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI [17]. Precious Metals - The COMEX gold price reached $2,993.6 per ounce, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase of 2.60%, with a notable decrease in non-commercial net long positions [17]. - The report suggests that tariffs may continue to elevate demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for gold investments [17]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights a significant increase in China's lithium carbonate production in January 2025, which rose by 32.55% year-on-year, while nickel production saw a notable decline of 13.32% [46][48]. - The demand for new energy vehicles in China surged, with January 2025 production reaching 965,900 units, a 27.85% year-on-year increase [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's technology in multi-modal video generation is globally leading, particularly with its Keling model, which is positioned as a top competitor in the industry [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous technological iteration in video generation models and Kuaishou's competitive advantages in this space [4][8]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in its e-commerce GMV, projected to increase by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Kuaishou are CNY 176 billion, CNY 201 billion, and CNY 247 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - The report highlights a stable financial outlook with a low to mid-range valuation, providing a good safety margin for investors [8]. Video Generation Model Development - The report identifies the DiT architecture as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou's Keling model being a leading player in this domain [22][23]. - Kuaishou's Keling model is noted for its superior performance in key evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control, making it a top competitor globally [8][30]. User Engagement and Commercialization - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and average daily usage time maintained at 120-130 minutes [8][9]. - The report anticipates a transition in Kuaishou's business model from PUGC tools to multi-scenario empowerment, indicating a shift towards broader user engagement and monetization strategies [19][22].

美国赤字与地区冲突推升价格上涨，关注 黄金与小金属板块投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 11 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 铁矿石：供给格局或迎巨变，钢铁盈利有 | 2025-03-12 | | --- | --- | | 望回流：——"中国定价"系列报告之一 | | | 德国财政刺激大超预期，关注铜铝和小金 | 2025-03-09 | | 属板块投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | | 点（2025 年第 10 周） | | | 2 月制造业 PMI 超预期，关注钢铁板块投 | 2025-03-03 | | 资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 | | | 年第 9 周） | | | 1. 核心观点：美国 ...

- The report mentions that public funds have intensively applied for free cash flow-themed funds, with 23 such funds reported as of now[5][7][11] - The report highlights that the first QDII business approval of the year was granted to Caitong Asset Management, which took over a year and a half from application to approval[5][7][11] - Quantitative products' performance is summarized, with active quantitative products achieving an average return of 1.30% last week, while quantitative hedging products recorded 0.04%[5][20][21]

ESG 研究 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | --- | --- | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | ESG 建设提速，机遇与挑战并存：—— | 2024-12-25 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年度 ESG 展望 | | | 谷歌推出全木结构办公室，国泰航空等推 | 2024-12-14 | | 动香港应用可持续航空燃料：——ESG 企 | | | 业动态双周报第二十二期 | | | 赋能绿色金融深化发展，基于 ESG 评分等 ...

- The report discusses the recent surge in applications for free cash flow-themed public funds, with 23 such funds being reported[5][7] - The report highlights the approval of the first QDII business of the year, with Caitong Asset Management receiving approval after more than a year and a half of application process[5][7] - The report provides an overview of the fund issuance dynamics, noting that 32 new funds were established domestically, raising a total of 17.807 billion yuan, with the largest being the Golden Eagle Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index 7-day holding, managed by Chen Shuangshuang, at 5.001 billion yuan[5][13] - The report details the performance of various types of funds over the past week, with ordinary stock funds averaging a return of 0.73%, mixed funds 0.46%, bond funds 0.02%, active quantitative products 1.30%, and quantitative hedging products 0.04%[5][20] - The report provides year-to-date performance data, with ordinary stock funds averaging a return of 7.90%, mixed funds 6.39%, bond funds -0.02%, active quantitative products 6.28%, and quantitative hedging products 0.17%[5][23] - The report lists the top-performing funds in various categories, with the highest return in ordinary stock funds being 61.07% by Ping An Advanced Manufacturing Theme A, and the highest in mixed funds being 76.27% by Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme A[23][26] - The report discusses the dynamics of on-exchange funds, noting that the largest ETF tracking target is the CSI 300, with a total scale of 973.113 billion yuan, followed by the CSI A500 at 251.468 billion yuan, and the STAR 50 at 171.994 billion yuan[5][27] - The report provides data on the net inflows and outflows of various ETFs, with the largest net inflow being 44.24 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology ETF, and the largest net outflow being -61.47 billion yuan for the CSI 300 ETF[5][27] - The report includes detailed data on the subscription and redemption of the top five broad-based ETFs, highlighting the significant head effect of broad-based ETFs[5][33][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry, indicating a favorable investment environment for the upcoming year [6]. Core Insights - The current phase is characterized by a concentrated rollout of stable growth policies, with expansive monetary policy leading the way, followed by fiscal measures. This is expected to significantly impact the banking sector's fundamentals in 2025 [4][22]. - The report highlights that the fiscal policy's intensification will support social financing and boost economic expectations, benefiting cyclical stocks. Although the net interest margin for banks may face short-term pressure due to broad interest rate declines, the re-pricing of high-interest deposits and regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation will provide crucial support for banks' interest margins in 2025 [4][22]. - 2025 is projected to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with policy support likely to improve risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties. Certain individual loan products that have adequately addressed risk exposure and disposal may also see a turning point in asset quality [4][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: 1. High-dividend stocks, recommending attention to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, not rated), China Construction Bank (601939, not rated), Agricultural Bank of China (601288, not rated), and Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy) [4][23]. 2. Stocks with improved risk expectations and strong fundamentals, recommending Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), Shanghai Bank (601229, not rated), and China Merchants Bank (600036, not rated) [4][23]. Financial Data Overview - In February 2025, social financing grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 2.23 trillion yuan, supported primarily by a significant increase in government bonds, which rose by 1.0956 trillion yuan year-on-year [8][9]. - The loan growth rate continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% in February 2025, reflecting a decrease in both household and corporate loans due to debt resolution disturbances [12][15]. - The M1 money supply grew by 0.1% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 7.0%, indicating a widening gap in growth rates between M2 and M1, suggesting a need for improved liquidity [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.43 CNY [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 59.47 billion CNY, 82.68 billion CNY, and 101.25 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively, with a comparable company average PE valuation of 21 times [2] - The report highlights the sustained high growth in new energy vehicle sales and the deepening cooperation between the company and Huawei [1][7] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 121.25 billion CNY in 2022 to 213.01 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.5% [4] - Operating profit is expected to fluctuate, with a significant drop in 2024 to 6.25 billion CNY, followed by recovery in subsequent years [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 5.95 billion CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 10.13 billion CNY by 2026 [4] - The report indicates a decrease in gross margin from 20.5% in 2022 to a low of 16.1% in 2024, with a slight recovery thereafter [4] - The net profit margin is projected to decrease to 3.4% in 2024, with gradual improvement expected in the following years [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to drop to 8.1% in 2024, before rising to 11.5% by 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9] Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 1,004,569 million, 1,123,039 million, and 1,254,470 million yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 6.74%, 11.79%, and 11.70% [7] - The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.03%. The forecast for FY2025 is 132,264 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 65.87% [7] - The report indicates a gross margin of 36.72% for FY2023, projected to increase to 39.05% by FY2025 [7] AI Application and Market Position - Alibaba's new AI flagship application, "New Quark," launched on March 13, integrates various AI functionalities and is expected to enhance user engagement. The application has achieved a daily active user count of 34.3 million, leading the AI application market [5][9] - The report highlights Alibaba's strong position in the AI and cloud computing sectors, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s proprietary AI models are expected to outperform competitors [5][9]