美国赤字与地区冲突推升价格上涨，关注 黄金与小金属板块投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 11 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 铁矿石：供给格局或迎巨变，钢铁盈利有 | 2025-03-12 | | --- | --- | | 望回流：——"中国定价"系列报告之一 | | | 德国财政刺激大超预期，关注铜铝和小金 | 2025-03-09 | | 属板块投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | | 点（2025 年第 10 周） | | | 2 月制造业 PMI 超预期，关注钢铁板块投 | 2025-03-03 | | 资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 | | | 年第 9 周） | | | 1. 核心观点：美国 ...

- The report mentions that public funds have intensively applied for free cash flow-themed funds, with 23 such funds reported as of now[5][7][11] - The report highlights that the first QDII business approval of the year was granted to Caitong Asset Management, which took over a year and a half from application to approval[5][7][11] - Quantitative products' performance is summarized, with active quantitative products achieving an average return of 1.30% last week, while quantitative hedging products recorded 0.04%[5][20][21]

ESG 研究 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | --- | --- | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | ESG 建设提速，机遇与挑战并存：—— | 2024-12-25 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年度 ESG 展望 | | | 谷歌推出全木结构办公室，国泰航空等推 | 2024-12-14 | | 动香港应用可持续航空燃料：——ESG 企 | | | 业动态双周报第二十二期 | | | 赋能绿色金融深化发展，基于 ESG 评分等 ...

- The report discusses the recent surge in applications for free cash flow-themed public funds, with 23 such funds being reported[5][7] - The report highlights the approval of the first QDII business of the year, with Caitong Asset Management receiving approval after more than a year and a half of application process[5][7] - The report provides an overview of the fund issuance dynamics, noting that 32 new funds were established domestically, raising a total of 17.807 billion yuan, with the largest being the Golden Eagle Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index 7-day holding, managed by Chen Shuangshuang, at 5.001 billion yuan[5][13] - The report details the performance of various types of funds over the past week, with ordinary stock funds averaging a return of 0.73%, mixed funds 0.46%, bond funds 0.02%, active quantitative products 1.30%, and quantitative hedging products 0.04%[5][20] - The report provides year-to-date performance data, with ordinary stock funds averaging a return of 7.90%, mixed funds 6.39%, bond funds -0.02%, active quantitative products 6.28%, and quantitative hedging products 0.17%[5][23] - The report lists the top-performing funds in various categories, with the highest return in ordinary stock funds being 61.07% by Ping An Advanced Manufacturing Theme A, and the highest in mixed funds being 76.27% by Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme A[23][26] - The report discusses the dynamics of on-exchange funds, noting that the largest ETF tracking target is the CSI 300, with a total scale of 973.113 billion yuan, followed by the CSI A500 at 251.468 billion yuan, and the STAR 50 at 171.994 billion yuan[5][27] - The report provides data on the net inflows and outflows of various ETFs, with the largest net inflow being 44.24 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology ETF, and the largest net outflow being -61.47 billion yuan for the CSI 300 ETF[5][27] - The report includes detailed data on the subscription and redemption of the top five broad-based ETFs, highlighting the significant head effect of broad-based ETFs[5][33][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry, indicating a favorable investment environment for the upcoming year [6]. Core Insights - The current phase is characterized by a concentrated rollout of stable growth policies, with expansive monetary policy leading the way, followed by fiscal measures. This is expected to significantly impact the banking sector's fundamentals in 2025 [4][22]. - The report highlights that the fiscal policy's intensification will support social financing and boost economic expectations, benefiting cyclical stocks. Although the net interest margin for banks may face short-term pressure due to broad interest rate declines, the re-pricing of high-interest deposits and regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation will provide crucial support for banks' interest margins in 2025 [4][22]. - 2025 is projected to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with policy support likely to improve risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties. Certain individual loan products that have adequately addressed risk exposure and disposal may also see a turning point in asset quality [4][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: 1. High-dividend stocks, recommending attention to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, not rated), China Construction Bank (601939, not rated), Agricultural Bank of China (601288, not rated), and Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy) [4][23]. 2. Stocks with improved risk expectations and strong fundamentals, recommending Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), Shanghai Bank (601229, not rated), and China Merchants Bank (600036, not rated) [4][23]. Financial Data Overview - In February 2025, social financing grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 2.23 trillion yuan, supported primarily by a significant increase in government bonds, which rose by 1.0956 trillion yuan year-on-year [8][9]. - The loan growth rate continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% in February 2025, reflecting a decrease in both household and corporate loans due to debt resolution disturbances [12][15]. - The M1 money supply grew by 0.1% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 7.0%, indicating a widening gap in growth rates between M2 and M1, suggesting a need for improved liquidity [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.43 CNY [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 59.47 billion CNY, 82.68 billion CNY, and 101.25 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively, with a comparable company average PE valuation of 21 times [2] - The report highlights the sustained high growth in new energy vehicle sales and the deepening cooperation between the company and Huawei [1][7] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 121.25 billion CNY in 2022 to 213.01 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.5% [4] - Operating profit is expected to fluctuate, with a significant drop in 2024 to 6.25 billion CNY, followed by recovery in subsequent years [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 5.95 billion CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 10.13 billion CNY by 2026 [4] - The report indicates a decrease in gross margin from 20.5% in 2022 to a low of 16.1% in 2024, with a slight recovery thereafter [4] - The net profit margin is projected to decrease to 3.4% in 2024, with gradual improvement expected in the following years [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to drop to 8.1% in 2024, before rising to 11.5% by 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9] Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 1,004,569 million, 1,123,039 million, and 1,254,470 million yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 6.74%, 11.79%, and 11.70% [7] - The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.03%. The forecast for FY2025 is 132,264 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 65.87% [7] - The report indicates a gross margin of 36.72% for FY2023, projected to increase to 39.05% by FY2025 [7] AI Application and Market Position - Alibaba's new AI flagship application, "New Quark," launched on March 13, integrates various AI functionalities and is expected to enhance user engagement. The application has achieved a daily active user count of 34.3 million, leading the AI application market [5][9] - The report highlights Alibaba's strong position in the AI and cloud computing sectors, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s proprietary AI models are expected to outperform competitors [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 168.34 CNY, based on an expected EPS of 4.43, 5.43, and 6.67 CNY for 2025-2027 [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in its smart cockpit and intelligent driving businesses, driven by new customers and projects [1][9]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 shows a growth trajectory with expected revenues of 33.73 billion CNY, 40.99 billion CNY, and 49.03 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.1%, 21.5%, and 19.6% [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 27.62 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, with a net profit of 2.01 billion CNY, up 29.6% [9]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 19.9%, with a net margin of 7.3% [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 2.79 CNY in 2023 to 6.67 CNY by 2027 [4][12]. Business Segment Insights - The smart cockpit business is anticipated to grow by 15.4% in 2024, with new project orders exceeding an annualized sales amount of 16 billion CNY [9]. - The intelligent driving business is projected to see a significant increase in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 63.1% in 2024, reaching 7.31 billion CNY [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's Keling technology is positioned to lead in the multi-modal video generation space, with significant competitive advantages and ongoing technological iterations [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of video generation model advancements and AI empowerment in existing business operations [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted net profits for Kuaishou are projected to be CNY 176 billion, CNY 201 billion, and CNY 247 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - The report anticipates a 13.5% growth in e-commerce GMV for Kuaishou in 2025, outpacing the market [8]. Video Generation Model Development - The report identifies Keling as a top player globally in video generation technology, particularly excelling in consistency and precise control metrics [8][22]. - Kuaishou's Keling is noted for its rapid iteration and development, maintaining a competitive edge in the evolving landscape of video generation technology [22][33]. User Engagement and Commercialization - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics, including MAU and DAU, show steady growth, with daily average usage time remaining high at 120-130 minutes [8][9]. - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of Kuaishou's internal operations to enhance user experience and commercial performance [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9]. Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are estimated at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2024 and FY2025 are 941,168 million yuan (8.34% growth) and 1,004,569 million yuan (6.74% growth) respectively. The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a projected increase to 79,741 million yuan in FY2024 and 132,264 million yuan in FY2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 65.87% [7][15]. AI Application Development - Alibaba has launched its flagship AI application, New Quark, which integrates multiple AI functionalities and aims to transition from a cloud storage and search engine to an AI agent. The application is expected to leverage the high traffic from its existing services and the company's leading AI foundational capabilities [5][9]. - The report highlights that New Quark has achieved a daily active user (DAU) count of 34.3 million, making it the top AI application, with over 200 million total users, predominantly from the post-00s demographic [5][9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Alibaba is positioned as a leader in the current AI wave, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s strong AI research capabilities, exemplified by its proprietary Qwen deep reasoning model, are expected to enhance its competitive edge [5][9]. - The report notes that the recent launch of the general AI agent product Manus marks a significant step in the evolution of C-end AI applications, with Alibaba's New Quark poised to capitalize on this trend [5][9].