投资策略 | 定期报告 A 股延续强势，建议关注科技产业趋势的反 弹行情 ——策略周报 0316 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 港股表现强势，继续关注科技股中长期行 | 2025-03-09 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and components industry [5] Core Insights - February saw impressive year-on-year growth in overall passenger car sales, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs). According to the China Passenger Car Association, wholesale/retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars reached 1.767 million/1.386 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.8%/26.0%. However, there was a month-on-month decrease of 16.0%/22.8%. NEV wholesale/retail sales were 830,000/686,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 79.6%/79.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%/7.8%. The penetration rates for NEVs reached 47.0%/49.5%, up 12.0/15.0 percentage points year-on-year and 4.7/8.0 percentage points month-on-month [10][29][35]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests continued focus on investment opportunities in the humanoid robot supply chain, with related companies expected to see both profit and valuation increases. By 2025, competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology are anticipated to expand their market share. Some central state-owned enterprises are expected to reverse their difficulties through reforms and enhanced external cooperation. Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, GAC Group, Yutong Bus, and several others in the humanoid robot and technology supply chains [2][13][14][15]. Market Trends - The automotive sector's performance this week showed a 0.7% increase, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.6%. Among the secondary industries, the automotive sales and service sector (+1.98%), passenger vehicle sector (+1.69%), and motorcycle sector (+1.26%) performed well, while the automotive parts sector (+0.31%) yielded positive returns. The commercial vehicle sector saw a decline of 0.84% [17]. Sales Tracking - Preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association indicate that from March 1-9, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 403,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 26% and an 84% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulatively, wholesale sales for the year reached 4.268 million units, up 14% year-on-year. Retail sales during the same period were 364,000 units, a 14% year-on-year increase and a 52% increase month-on-month, with cumulative retail sales of 3.539 million units, up 2% year-on-year [27]. Industry Developments - Figure AI launched its humanoid robot factory BotQ, with an initial production capacity of 12,000 units per year, expected to expand to 100,000 units over the next four years. The factory's automation level will increase as the number of humanoid robots on the production line grows, laying the foundation for large-scale production. Additionally, the report highlights the launch of new models from various companies, including the Wanjie M8 and M9, which have received strong pre-order interest [11][12][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and components industry [5]. Core Insights - February saw impressive year-on-year growth in overall passenger car sales, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs). According to the China Passenger Car Association, wholesale/retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars reached 1.767 million/1.386 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.8%/26.0%. However, there was a month-on-month decrease of 16.0%/22.8%. NEV wholesale/retail sales were 830,000/686,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 79.6%/79.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%/7.8%. The penetration rates for NEVs reached 47.0%/49.5%, up 12.0/15.0 percentage points year-on-year and 4.7/8.0 percentage points month-on-month [10][29][35]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests continued focus on humanoid robot supply chain investment opportunities, with related companies expected to see both profit and valuation increases. By 2025, competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology are anticipated to expand their market share. Some central state-owned enterprises are expected to reverse their difficulties through reforms and enhanced external cooperation. Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, GAC Group, and Yutong Bus, among others [2][13][14]. Market Trends - The automotive sector's performance this week showed a 0.7% increase, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.6%. Among the secondary industries, the automotive sales and service sector (+1.98%), passenger vehicle sector (+1.69%), and motorcycle sector (+1.26%) performed well, while the automotive parts sector (+0.31%) yielded positive returns. The commercial vehicle sector saw a decline of 0.84% [17]. Sales Tracking - Preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association indicate that from March 1-9, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 403,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 26% and an 84% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulatively, wholesale sales for the year reached 4.268 million units, up 14% year-on-year. Retail sales during the same period were 364,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% and a 52% increase compared to the previous month [27].

Quantitative Factors and Models Summary Quantitative Factors and Their Construction - **Factor Name: Trend** - **Construction Idea**: Measures market preference for trend-following strategies, using exponential weighted moving averages (EWMA) with different half-lives [12] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend_120**: $ EWMA(halflife=20) / EWMA(halflife=120) $ - **Trend_240**: $ EWMA(halflife=20) / EWMA(halflife=240) $ [12] - **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in short-term market rebounds, indicating increased preference for trend-following strategies [9] - **Factor Name: Certainty** - **Construction Idea**: Captures market confidence through institutional holdings and analyst coverage [12] - **Construction Process**: - **Instholder Pct**: Proportion of public fund holdings - **Cov**: Analyst coverage adjusted for market capitalization - **Listdays**: Number of days since listing [12] - **Evaluation**: Shows recovery in market confidence during the observed period [9] - **Factor Name: Value** - **Construction Idea**: Measures valuation attractiveness using metrics like book-to-price (BP) and earnings yield (EP) [12] - **Construction Process**: - **BP**: $ Net\ Assets / Market\ Capitalization $ - **EP**: $ Earnings / Market\ Capitalization $ [12] - **Evaluation**: Underperformed during the observed period, reflecting reduced market preference for value stocks [9] - **Factor Name: Volatility** - **Construction Idea**: Captures market risk perception through historical and idiosyncratic volatility measures [12] - **Construction Process**: - **Stdvol**: Standard deviation of daily returns over 243 days - **Ivff**: Idiosyncratic volatility from Fama-French 3-factor model over 243 days - **Range**: $ (High\ Price - Low\ Price) / Low\ Price $ over 243 days [12] - **Evaluation**: Declined significantly, indicating increased market aversion to high-volatility assets [10] - **Factor Name: Size** - **Construction Idea**: Measures the impact of company size on returns using logarithmic market capitalization [12] - **Construction Process**: $ Log(Market\ Capitalization) $ [12] - **Evaluation**: Continued to underperform, reflecting negative sentiment towards smaller companies [10] Factor Backtesting Results - **Trend Factor** - Weekly return: 1.49% [9] - Monthly return: -4.81% [11] - Year-to-date return: -10.89% [11] - Historical annualized return: 13.86% [11] - **Certainty Factor** - Weekly return: 1.35% [9] - Monthly return: -2.32% [11] - Year-to-date return: -3.44% [11] - Historical annualized return: 3.20% [11] - **Value Factor** - Weekly return: 0.35% [9] - Monthly return: -2.42% [11] - Year-to-date return: -10.53% [11] - Historical annualized return: 7.28% [11] - **Volatility Factor** - Weekly return: -0.51% [10] - Monthly return: 5.01% [11] - Year-to-date return: 16.90% [11] - Historical annualized return: -12.84% [11] - **Size Factor** - Weekly return: -4.61% [10] - Monthly return: -12.65% [11] - Year-to-date return: -22.68% [11] - Historical annualized return: -29.42% [11] Composite Factor Portfolio Construction - **Model Name: Maximized Factor Exposure (MFE) Portfolio** - **Construction Idea**: Optimizes portfolio to maximize exposure to a single factor while controlling for industry, style, and turnover constraints [52] - **Construction Process**: - Objective function: $ max\ f^{T}w $ - Constraints: - Style exposure: $ s_{l} \leq X(w-w_{b}) \leq s_{h} $ - Industry exposure: $ h_{l} \leq H(w-w_{b}) \leq h_{h} $ - Stock weight deviation: $ w_{l} \leq w-w_{b} \leq w_{h} $ - Turnover limit: $ \Sigma|w-w_{0}| \leq to_{h} $ [52][53] - **Evaluation**: Provides a robust framework for testing factor effectiveness under realistic portfolio constraints [53] MFE Portfolio Backtesting Results - **MFE Portfolio for Trend Factor** - Weekly return: 1.49% [9] - Monthly return: -4.81% [11] - Year-to-date return: -10.89% [11] - Historical annualized return: 13.86% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's Keling technology is positioned to lead in the multi-modal video generation space, with significant competitive advantages and ongoing technological iterations [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of video generation model advancements and AI empowerment in existing business operations [4][8]. - Kuaishou's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at CNY 127.19 billion, CNY 141.03 billion, and CNY 154.13 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of CNY 15.22 billion, CNY 19.05 billion, and CNY 23.42 billion [9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Video Generation Model Development - The video generation model is entering a rapid development phase, with Kuaishou's Keling technology being a top player globally, particularly in core evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control [22][31]. - The DiT architecture is identified as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou quickly achieving technological breakthroughs [22][23]. Section 2: Kuaishou's Competitive Position - Keling's technological capabilities and data resource advantages position it favorably for future developments in the AI-driven content community [8][19]. - Kuaishou's strategic focus and unified organizational structure enhance its execution efficiency [8][19]. Section 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and daily average usage time maintained at high levels [8][9]. - The e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market, while online marketing services are projected to increase by 15.6% [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the U.S. deficit and regional conflicts are driving price increases, with a focus on investment opportunities in gold and minor metals [14]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $307 billion in February, a 4% year-on-year increase, raising inflation concerns and pushing COMEX gold prices above $3,000 per ounce, marking a historical high [14]. - The conflict in eastern Congo has led to the suspension of operations at a major tin mine, causing tin prices to surge to $37,000 per ton, the highest since June 2022 [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar increased to 2.33 million tons, a 5.84% week-on-week rise, while the overall price index for common steel saw a slight increase of 0.29% [15][40]. - The average daily pig iron production among 247 steel companies was 230.59 thousand tons, showing a minimal increase of 0.03% [25]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in the profitability of long and short process rebar production, with long process margins down by 22 CNY/ton and short process margins down by 16 CNY/ton [37]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the TC/RC negative values are deepening, suggesting a potential for continued copper price increases, with LME aluminum prices rising to $2,713 per ton, a 0.74% week-on-week increase [17]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for copper is expected to grow due to sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI [17]. Precious Metals - The COMEX gold price reached $2,993.6 per ounce, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase of 2.60%, with a notable decrease in non-commercial net long positions [17]. - The report suggests that tariffs may continue to elevate demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for gold investments [17]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights a significant increase in China's lithium carbonate production in January 2025, which rose by 32.55% year-on-year, while nickel production saw a notable decline of 13.32% [46][48]. - The demand for new energy vehicles in China surged, with January 2025 production reaching 965,900 units, a 27.85% year-on-year increase [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's technology in multi-modal video generation is globally leading, particularly with its Keling model, which is positioned as a top competitor in the industry [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous technological iteration in video generation models and Kuaishou's competitive advantages in this space [4][8]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in its e-commerce GMV, projected to increase by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Kuaishou are CNY 176 billion, CNY 201 billion, and CNY 247 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - The report highlights a stable financial outlook with a low to mid-range valuation, providing a good safety margin for investors [8]. Video Generation Model Development - The report identifies the DiT architecture as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou's Keling model being a leading player in this domain [22][23]. - Kuaishou's Keling model is noted for its superior performance in key evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control, making it a top competitor globally [8][30]. User Engagement and Commercialization - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and average daily usage time maintained at 120-130 minutes [8][9]. - The report anticipates a transition in Kuaishou's business model from PUGC tools to multi-scenario empowerment, indicating a shift towards broader user engagement and monetization strategies [19][22].

美国赤字与地区冲突推升价格上涨，关注 黄金与小金属板块投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 11 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 铁矿石：供给格局或迎巨变，钢铁盈利有 | 2025-03-12 | | --- | --- | | 望回流：——"中国定价"系列报告之一 | | | 德国财政刺激大超预期，关注铜铝和小金 | 2025-03-09 | | 属板块投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | | 点（2025 年第 10 周） | | | 2 月制造业 PMI 超预期，关注钢铁板块投 | 2025-03-03 | | 资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 | | | 年第 9 周） | | | 1. 核心观点：美国 ...

- The report mentions that public funds have intensively applied for free cash flow-themed funds, with 23 such funds reported as of now[5][7][11] - The report highlights that the first QDII business approval of the year was granted to Caitong Asset Management, which took over a year and a half from application to approval[5][7][11] - Quantitative products' performance is summarized, with active quantitative products achieving an average return of 1.30% last week, while quantitative hedging products recorded 0.04%[5][20][21]

ESG 研究 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | --- | --- | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | ESG 建设提速，机遇与挑战并存：—— | 2024-12-25 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年度 ESG 展望 | | | 谷歌推出全木结构办公室，国泰航空等推 | 2024-12-14 | | 动香港应用可持续航空燃料：——ESG 企 | | | 业动态双周报第二十二期 | | | 赋能绿色金融深化发展，基于 ESG 评分等 ...