电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 25 年 1-5 月风电中标延续景气趋势 核心观点 ⚫ 陆风周期底部回暖，静待量价修复。建议关注风电产业链复苏金风科技(002202， 未评级)、明阳智能(601615，未评级)、运达股份(300772，未评级)、日月股份 (603218，未评级)、三一重能(688349，未评级)、金雷股份(300443，未评级)等； 海风周期拐点蓄势待发，静待海风边际改善。建议关注风电产业链中海风相关度较 高环节东 方电缆(603606 ，未评级) 、振江 股份(603507，买入) 、起帆 电缆 (605222，买入)、大金重工(002487，未评级)等。 风险提示 能源结构转型速度不及预期、风电需求不及预期、竞争激烈程度增加、地缘风险、汇率 风险。 asdasd 国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 04 日 严东 yandong@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523050001 | 4 月电新出口整体企稳 | 2025-05-25 | | --- | --- | | 25Q1 风电行业招标增长，价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company is experiencing stable revenue growth, with a profit turning point already evident [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, while net profit estimates have been revised upwards [2] - The target price is set at 19.74 CNY, based on a PE valuation of 21X for 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 24,531 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 15.5% [4] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26,497 million CNY, 29,649 million CNY, 33,012 million CNY, and 36,383 million CNY respectively, with growth rates of 8.0%, 11.9%, 11.3%, and 10.2% [4] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,166 million CNY, with a projected increase to 1,073 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 35% in the coming years, with a slight decrease in 2024 [4] Business Expansion and Strategy - The company continues to expand its retail business, with a significant increase in the number of stores, including 907 new self-built stores and 420 acquired stores in 2024 [9] - The retail business generated 219.2 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 82.7% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 36.6% [9] - The company is actively developing its new retail business, achieving an 80.4% coverage rate for O2O delivery services by the end of 2024 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company is experiencing stable revenue growth, with a profit turning point already evident [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, while sales expense ratios have been increased, predicting net profits of 1.073 billion, 1.247 billion, and 1.395 billion yuan respectively for those years [2] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 24.531 billion yuan, 2024A: 26.497 billion yuan (YoY +8.0%), 2025E: 29.649 billion yuan (YoY +11.9%) [4] - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: 1.166 billion yuan, 2024A: 915 million yuan (YoY -21.6%), 2025E: 1.073 billion yuan (YoY +17.3%) [4] - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023A: 1.02 yuan, 2024A: 0.80 yuan, 2025E: 0.94 yuan [4] - **Gross Margin**: - 2023A: 35.9%, 2024A: 34.3%, 2025E: 35.0% [4] - **Net Margin**: - 2023A: 4.8%, 2024A: 3.5%, 2025E: 3.6% [4] - **Return on Equity**: - 2023A: 17.9%, 2024A: 13.3%, 2025E: 14.3% [4] Business Expansion and Strategy - The company opened 907 new self-built stores and acquired 420 stores in 2024, with a total of 16,553 stores by the end of the year [9] - Retail business revenue reached 219.2 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the expansion of direct-operated stores and new openings [9] - The company is actively developing new retail business, achieving an 80.4% coverage rate for O2O delivery services by the end of 2024 [9]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 04 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | 短期进出口情况有所改善——5 月 PMI 点 评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 全球产业链竞争加剧，外需变化快于预期。 | 东方战略周观察：美欧贸易摩擦新动态 | 2025-05-29 | | --- | --- | ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 东方战略周观察：特朗普关税裁决进展更 新 研究结论 战略动向复盘：5 月 29 日美国国际贸易法院（CIT）裁定特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力 法》（IEEPA）实施的关税违法，标志着特朗普行政权扩张在贸易政策领域遭遇司法制 约。美国以往通常援引《国际紧急经济权力法》对他国实施制裁或冻结资产，特朗普是 第一个援引该法律来全面加征关税的美国总统。这一判决的核心在于维护宪法分权原 则，凸显了特朗普关税政策的法律争议性及其对美国贸易治理体系的冲击。 理论上，美国海关需立即停止征收相关关税（包括对等关税），但特朗普政府可以通过 上诉或援引其他法律拖延执行。尽管 CIT 判决具有全国性效力，但行政部门的应对策略 （如申请暂缓执行或转移法律依据）可能削弱判决的实际效果。 由于特朗普政府随即提出上诉，目前美国上诉法院已裁定特朗普仍可以继续征收进口关 税，并命令原法院及特朗普政府分别在 6 月 5 日和 6 月 9 日前提交回应文件。特朗普宣布 自 6 月 4 日起将钢铁和铝的进口关税翻倍提高至 50%，扰乱美国与加拿大、欧盟等贸易 伙伴的既有谈判进程。 1）能否长期暂缓执行影响关税常态化机制形成。国际 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price of 172.90 HKD [6][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Meituan's performance in Q1 2025 was better than expected, driven by growth in its ecosystem and overseas expansion despite short-term impacts from delivery subsidies [12][21]. - The report projects a high single-digit growth in food delivery orders, with improvements in user engagement and supply-side offerings contributing to revenue growth [2][9]. - Instant retail is expected to see approximately 30% growth in order volume, with strong brand operations enhancing performance [3][9]. - The hotel and travel segment is forecasted to grow over 30% in transaction value, with ongoing category expansion and improved consumer recognition through membership benefits [4][9]. - New business segments, particularly community group buying, are showing signs of reduced losses, and international expansion efforts are being actively pursued [4][9]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery - Q1 2025 food delivery orders are expected to grow in the high single digits, with improved user stickiness and frequency of purchases [2]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to outpace order volume growth due to enhanced advertising monetization and effective subsidies [2]. - Meituan plans to invest 100 billion CNY over the next three years to promote high-quality development in the industry [2]. Instant Retail - Q1 2025 instant retail orders are projected to grow by about 30%, with over 500 million transaction users and a significant increase in non-food orders [3]. - The establishment of over 30,000 instant warehouses is expected to enhance order volume contributions [3]. Hotel and Travel - The hotel and travel segment is expected to see a GTV growth of over 30% in Q1 2025, with ongoing product category expansion [4]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to be lower than GTV growth due to advertising revenue impacts [4]. New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue reached 22.2 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [4]. - Meituan's community group buying segment is expected to continue reducing losses, while international expansion plans include significant investments in markets like Brazil [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a revenue of 385.2 billion CNY for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [13]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at 36.9 billion CNY, with an EPS of 6.04 CNY [10][13].

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 本周油价小幅下跌，农药关注度较高 核心观点 原油相关信息： 原油及相关库存：2025 年 5 月 23 日美国原油商业库存 4.404 亿桶，周减少 280 万 桶；汽油库存 2.231 亿桶，周减少 240 万桶；馏分油库存 1.034 亿桶，周减少 70 万桶； 丙烷库存 0.55099 亿桶，周增加 200 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 5 月 23 日 美国原油产量为 1338.7 万桶/天，周减少 1.6 万桶/天，较一年前增加 30.1 万桶/天。 2025 年 5 月 30 日美国钻机数 563 台，周减少 3 台，年减少 37 台；加拿大钻机数 112 台，周减少 2 台，年减少 16 台。其中美国采油钻机 461 台，周度减少 4 台，年度减少 35 台。 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 美债危机叠加关税冲击，关注黄金板块的 投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 22 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 20 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，继续关注钢铁板 | 2025-05-11 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 19 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，积极关注钢铁板 | 2025-04-27 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 17 周） | | 有关分析师的 ...

研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；ABS 发行及投资热度不及预期；数据统计可能 存在遗误 固定收益 | 专题报告 情绪偏乐观，追涨性价比在下降 2025 年 5 月小品种月报 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | | | | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 企业永续债：一级市场方面，5 月发行企业永续债 82 只，合计融资 1037 亿元，相 较上月下降约 37%；同时偿还规模降至 723 亿元，环比大幅下降 49%，最终实现 ...