Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of Vanke's bonds has impacted market sentiment. In the short term, the bond prices of private real - estate developers and state - owned real - estate developers with weak credit may fluctuate, but it is difficult for the risk to spread to the urban investment bond sector. Although Vanke's case has not fundamentally shaken the "state - owned enterprise faith" and "urban investment faith" in the bond market, it still has a certain reference value for the evolution of credit crises [5][8]. - The credit risk diffusion is controllable. After 2027, the recognition of urban investment bonds is likely to diverge, but considering the rhythm of risk exposure and fermentation, the bottom - line risk of urban investment bonds within 3 years remains controllable [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - Vanke's bond extension is an important factor in last week's credit bond market adjustment. Although the market sentiment release was not as intense as the unexpected default of Yongmei, the impact on market sentiment cannot be ignored. The bond - holding structure and the relatively strong anti - volatility ability of banks and wealth management products have kept the market volatility within a controllable range [5][8]. - The bond prices of private real - estate developers and state - owned real - estate developers with weak credit may be more volatile, but it is unlikely to spread to urban investment bonds in the short term [5][8]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no cases of corporate main - body rating or outlook downgrades during the period from November 24 to November 30, 2025. - The bond ratings of "18泰华诚债", "PR泰华诚", "24鲁王晁", and "22滦州债" were downgraded [12]. - S&P downgraded the long - term issuer credit ratings of Vanke and its subsidiary Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) from "CCC" to "CCC -" [13]. - Multiple companies, including Guangxi Communications Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Tianjian Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., had negative events such as regulatory measures and debt defaults [14]. 3.2.2 Primary Market Issuance - From November 24 to November 30, the primary market issuance of credit bonds was 344.3 billion yuan, a 15% decrease from the previous period. The total repayment amount dropped to 223.6 billion yuan, and the net financing amount remained above 100 billion yuan at 120.7 billion yuan [15]. - The number of cancelled or postponed bond issuances increased, with 6 bonds and a total scale of 4.27 billion yuan. The issuance cost of AAA - rated bonds decreased significantly [16]. 3.2.3 Secondary Market Transactions - The valuations of credit bonds of all grades and maturities increased across the board last week, and credit spreads widened simultaneously, with a larger widening amplitude at the long - end. The yields of bonds with a maturity of over 3 years for all grades increased significantly, and the 3 - year AA+ grade yield increased by up to 7bp [19]. - The term spreads of 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y for medium - and high - grade bonds widened significantly, while those of low - grade bonds widened less. The AA - AAA grade spread fluctuated within ±1bp [21]. - The provincial credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened overall, with relatively small differences among provinces. The spreads in Ningxia and Gansu widened by up to 4bp. The spreads of most industries in industrial bonds widened by about 3bp, with the real - estate industry having the largest widening of 53bp [25][27]. - The weekly turnover rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points to 1.71% compared to the previous period. The issuers of the top - ten bonds in terms of turnover rate were mostly central and state - owned enterprises. The credit bonds with a discount of more than 10% in transactions were all Vanke bonds. Among individual entities, the urban investment entities with significant spread changes were scattered, and the top five industrial entities with widening spreads were mostly real - estate developers, including Vanke, Times Holdings, Country Garden, and Rongqiao [28][30][31].

可转债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 转债补跌幅度有限，交易情绪较弱 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期； 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应：固定 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 收益市场周观察 | | | 正股大幅下跌，转债明显惜售：可转债市 | 2025-11-25 | | 场周观察 | | | 关注永续品种定价偏离带来的机会：信用 | 2025-11-24 | | 债市场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 转债在估值不断积累过后上周开始补跌，百元溢价率显著回调，但并未回到 11 月中 旬均值水平。转债资产由于绝对价格和估值水平均过高因此配置意愿较弱，高位的 支撑来两方面，一是供给小于需求下的稀缺性溢价，二是权益市场强势环境带来的 支撑，两大因素未被彻底打破前转债估值依然坚挺。 ⚫ 我们认为，当前转债性价比已处于低位，估值过高叠加优质个 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is gradually improving, with high dividend expectations likely to continue [4] - The effectiveness of the explosive product strategy is significant, and future performance growth is anticipated [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,315 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.0% - For 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 14.2% to 4,559 million yuan, followed by an increase of 8.4% in 2025 to 4,943 million yuan - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 572 million yuan in 2023, decreasing to 433 million yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 529 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [6][9][11] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, 0.76 yuan in 2026, and 0.87 yuan in 2027, with adjustments made based on recent reports [6][9] - The target price is set at 11.34 yuan, based on a 15 times PE valuation for 2026 [6][9] Market Performance - The company has shown a 17.3% absolute performance increase over the last 12 months, outperforming the market benchmark [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from its light asset management model, which allows it to enjoy operational benefits without significant capital investment, leading to lower risk and higher profit margins [5][24] - The company's strong bargaining power with merchants is supported by its parent company's stable growth and large-scale quality shopping centers, enhancing its ability to achieve long-term same-store growth [8][9] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 14,767 million HKD in 2023 to 22,596 million HKD in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.1% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,929 million HKD in 2023 to 5,572 million HKD in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15.3% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 is adjusted to 1.73 HKD and 2.12 HKD, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 2.44 HKD [6][12] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company operates under a light asset model, which allows it to leverage the parent company's extensive resources without the burden of heavy capital investment, thus maintaining a competitive edge in the market [18][24] - The parent company, China Resources Land, has a significant number of shopping centers, with 92 operational centers and 35 under construction, providing a stable and growing contract base for the company [41][42] - The company's ability to secure prime locations in high-tier cities enhances its market position and operational performance, leading to a strong upward trend in rental income [30][36] Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include same-store sales growth exceeding expectations, new third-party contracts, and accelerated monetization of membership programs [11] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the industry’s Matthew effect, where leading players gain more market share and operational advantages [10][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous and steel sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in these industries [9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that a cross-year market for gold and copper may unfold, making it an opportune time to invest in non-ferrous metals [9][10]. - It highlights that the copper supply shortage is expected to continue, which may drive up copper prices, while strict control over smelting capacity could lead to improved profitability for midstream players [9][10]. - The report also emphasizes the bullish outlook for gold prices, projecting a rise to $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [9][10]. - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, the report suggests that despite recent stock dilution, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain intact, presenting opportunities for investment [9][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report notes a 3.37% increase in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by a significant rise in copper prices due to supply constraints and inflation expectations [9][10]. - It highlights the historical high copper premium set by Codelco, which is expected to further tighten supply [9][10]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in copper, gold, and aluminum sectors [9][10]. Steel Industry - The report indicates a slight decrease in iron and steel production, with rebar consumption at 2.28 million tons, down 1.23% week-on-week but up 1.15% year-on-year [16][21]. - It mentions that overall steel inventory continues to decline, with total social and steel mill inventories down by 2.15% [23][24]. - The profitability of most steel products has significantly improved due to rising costs, with the average price index for common steel rising by 0.42% [26][35]. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [39][40]. - It also notes that the production of new energy vehicles continues to grow, with October 2025 production reaching 1.68 million units, up 19.94% year-on-year [43][46]. - The report highlights price increases in lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate priced at 93,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.27% week-on-week [49][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.94 CNY based on a 39x PE ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging AI across its business operations to enhance competitiveness and efficiency, particularly in virtual power plant operations and electricity trading [2][9]. - The company is exploring new opportunities in Real World Assets (RWA) by launching a project in collaboration with Ant Group, focusing on financial services for renewable energy assets [9]. - Adjustments to revenue growth rates and expense ratios have led to revised earnings per share (EPS) forecasts of 0.46, 0.63, and 0.76 CNY for 2025-2027, down from previous estimates [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,727 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. However, a decline of 5.2% is expected in 2024 [5][12]. - The company anticipates a significant recovery in operating profit, with a forecast of 459 million CNY in 2025, representing a 226.3% increase from the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 45.0% by 2025, up from 40.7% in 2023, driven by changes in revenue structure [5][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of November 28, 2025, was 16.22 CNY, with a 52-week high of 27.64 CNY and a low of 9.91 CNY [6][10]. - The company has shown a relative performance of -0.83% over the past week and -36.99% over the past three months compared to the CSI 300 index [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that with policy support and continuous efforts from various brands, the penetration rate of smart glasses is expected to reach an upward turning point, benefiting eyewear companies first. Additionally, some specialized retail companies, as important channels for offline sales of smart glasses, are also expected to benefit [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the launch of the Quark AI glasses by Alibaba on November 27, featuring two series: S1 (with display) and G1 (without display), with prices starting at 3799 yuan and 1899 yuan respectively. The S1 model includes advanced features such as dual flagship chips and adjustable focal distance [8]. Market Dynamics - The pace of smart glasses brand releases is accelerating, with several major brands launching new products in 2023. For instance, Meta released three models at prices starting from $379, and Xiaomi introduced three models starting from 1999 yuan [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies specific investment targets within the eyewear sector, including Mingyue Lens (301101, Buy), and mentions other companies like Conant Optical (02276, Not Rated) and Doctor Glasses (300622, Not Rated) as potential beneficiaries of the smart glasses trend [3][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The unexpected shutdown of Huntsman’s MDI facility in Europe is expected to drive a rebound in MDI prices, with European and Middle Eastern prices already increasing [9] - The report highlights a recovery in the chemical industry, particularly in MDI, PVC, and phosphate chemicals, driven by high growth expectations in energy storage [8] - The report suggests that the supply contraction in MDI could lead to a price rebound, despite current demand not being at its peak [9] Summary by Sections MDI Market - Huntsman's MDI production facility in the Netherlands, with a capacity of 280,000 tons/year, is undergoing unexpected maintenance, which is likely to last at least a month, leading to price increases in MDI [9] - The report notes that MDI prices have already returned to last year's high points, and the supply situation is more favorable compared to TDI [9] Chemical Industry Outlook - The report identifies several companies with potential for recovery in the PVC sector, including Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Tianyuan Co., with Wanhua Chemical being highlighted as a leading MDI player [3] - The report also emphasizes the potential for price increases in oxalic acid, driven by demand from the new energy sector, with prices rising to 3,180 yuan/ton [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the coal industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The long-term contract prices for domestic thermal coal have been established, with a focus on left-side layout opportunities in the industry [2] - The current price level of coking coal is lower than that of thermal coal, and some coking coal stocks are trading below their net asset value, indicating that market pessimism is already reflected in stock prices [3][67] - The establishment of a monthly adjustment mechanism for long-term contracts is expected to reduce price volatility in the future [3] Industry Fundamentals - Supply and demand are generally stable, with shipping rhythm dominating coal price trends [7] - As of November 28, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton from November 21, while coking coal futures closed at 1067 CNY, down 36 CNY/ton [7] - The operating rate of coal mines remains low, with 91.3% capacity utilization for thermal coal mines, down 7.0 percentage points year-on-year, and 86.0% for coking coal mines, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [7][30] - Demand from the steel and construction sectors continues to weaken, while chemical demand remains high, providing some support [7][30] Key Events - The long-term contract prices for domestic thermal coal were officially released on November 17, with prices for 5500 kcal contracts in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia set at 496 CNY/ton, 548 CNY/ton, and 460 CNY/ton respectively, all higher than the local benchmark prices [7] Price Comparison and Valuation - The price ratio of coking coal to thermal coal is at a historical low, with the ratio as of November 28 being 1.18, close to the historical minimum of 0.98 [7][27] - The coal industry index PB is at 1.48 times, with a ratio of 0.83 times compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating that the current valuation of the coal sector is at a historical median level [7]

Market Outlook - December is expected to start strong, with a market trend of initial gains followed by potential declines in a volatile environment[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index's 5-day moving average has formed a death cross with the 30-day moving average, indicating short-term resistance[6] Investment Strategy - Focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the consumer sector, which is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn[6] - Key sectors to watch include AI-driven new materials and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics[6] Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected consumer recovery, unclear demand scenarios, and uncertainties surrounding the sustainability of trade-in subsidy policies[5] ETF Recommendations - Suggested ETFs include cash flow ETFs and sector-specific ETFs for consumer goods, beverages, and home appliances, which are expected to perform well in the current market[6]