Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.50 CNY [5][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to optimize its self-developed project diversification in 2026, leading to an increase in the proportion of self-developed games and an improvement in gross margin. The forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is 2.763 billion, 3.226 billion, and 3.656 billion CNY respectively, with adjustments made based on game launch progress and marketing data [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 8.49 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, primarily due to the decline of older games like "Seeking the Great Thousand." The gross margin for H1 2025 was 76.7%, down 2.9 percentage points, mainly due to an increase in the proportion of agency games. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.4 billion CNY, an increase of 11% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced sales expenses [9]. - Domestic revenue for H1 2025 was 5.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, while overseas revenue was 2.72 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. The company has several global products awaiting launch, with a diverse portfolio across various genres [9]. - The company has significantly integrated AI technology into its operations, with over 80% of 2D art assets and over 30% of 3D assets generated using AI. AI has also been involved in generating over 70% of game advertising materials and has achieved a 95% accuracy rate in localizing translations for 85% of its overseas games [9]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenue for the company from 2023 to 2027 is as follows: 16.547 billion, 17.441 billion, 17.087 billion, 18.097 billion, and 18.646 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 0.9%, 5.4%, -2.0%, 5.9%, and 3.0% [4][11]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is expected to grow from 2.659 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.656 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -10.0%, 0.5%, 3.4%, 16.8%, and 13.3% respectively [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The main brand, Han Shu, has solidified its leading position in the Douyin beauty sector and is experiencing rapid growth on other e-commerce platforms, with a strong performance across multiple platforms [9] - The second growth curve has formed with the mid-to-high-end baby and child brand, Yi Ye, showing a significant revenue increase of 147% year-on-year, contributing to the company's growth [9] - The company launched a new high-end professional makeup brand, NAN beauty, which is expected to enhance its multi-brand strategy [9] - The company's multi-brand and multi-category layout is becoming increasingly mature, supported by effective management and incentive mechanisms [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.78, 3.55, and 4.37 RMB respectively, with a target price of 103.21 HKD based on a 34x PE ratio for 2025 [4][10] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with 2023 revenue at 4,191 million RMB and expected to reach 12,411 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][10] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 75%, while the net profit margin is projected to improve from 11.0% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2027 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 56.94 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in performance with simultaneous expansion in domestic and international markets. The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 270 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million CNY, up 5.5% year-on-year [11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its domestic presence and building its own brand, with domestic revenue for the first half of 2025 at 70 million CNY, a slight increase of 1.7% year-on-year. The sales of medical optical products in the domestic market grew by 48% year-on-year [11]. - The company has made significant advancements in research and development, with R&D investment of 33.215 million CNY in the first half of 2025, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year. This includes the trial production of new medical instruments and the application of AI technology to improve endoscopic image quality [11]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 556 million CNY, 674 million CNY, and 835 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 21.1%, and 23.9% [9][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to 1.46 CNY, 1.69 CNY, and 2.04 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 64.7%, 64.9%, and 63.8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 56.94 CNY [1][7] Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in performance with simultaneous expansion in domestic and international markets. The short-term performance is under pressure, but the order volume is expected to recover [5][11] - The company achieved a revenue of 270 million CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 70 million CNY, up 5.5% year-on-year [11] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business and has established production lines in Thailand to mitigate tariff pressures from the US market [11] - Domestic sales have shown stability, with a 1.7% year-on-year increase in revenue, while medical optical products saw a significant growth of 48% [11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 556 million CNY, 674 million CNY, and 835 million CNY respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 21.1%, and 23.9% [9][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.46 CNY, 1.69 CNY, and 2.04 CNY respectively [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 64.7% in 2025, with a net margin of 31.6% [9][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.20 CNY based on a 20x PE for 2026 [5][3]. Core Views - The company's core game "Yihuan" is expected to launch in 2026, contributing significantly to revenue growth. The forecasted net profit for the company is 0.827 billion, 1.564 billion, and 1.806 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a recovery in profitability [3][10]. - The company has seen a strong performance in its existing games, particularly "Zhu Xian World," which has driven revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 7.791 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. However, a decline of 28.5% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 29.1% and 48.6% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 58.2% in 2025 and increase to 63.9% in 2026, indicating improved profitability as new games are launched [4][12]. - The net profit margin is projected to recover from -23.1% in 2024 to 14.6% in 2026, reflecting a significant turnaround in the company's financial health [4][12].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 降息前后美国经济仍疲弱 ——海外札记 20250903 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。 关税政策不确定性。 降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 04 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 降息按下快进键：——海外札记 20250825 | 2025-08-27 | | --- | --- | | 美国通胀风险未能阻碍市场上行：——海 | 2025-08-19 | | 外札记 20250818 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 197.56 CNY based on a projected average PE of 44 times for comparable companies in 2026 [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance is driven by growth in emerging markets and automotive business segments, with significant revenue increases expected in the coming years [1][10]. - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 3.58 CNY, 4.49 CNY, and 5.36 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments in revenue and gross margin forecasts [2][11]. - The automotive market is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a 30% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 [10]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 21,021 million CNY - 2024: 25,731 million CNY (22% growth) - 2025: 31,446 million CNY (22% growth) - 2026: 37,386 million CNY (19% growth) - 2027: 44,199 million CNY (18% growth) [4][14] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 21.8% in 2023 to 31.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 556 million CNY in 2023 to 6,469 million CNY in 2027, with significant growth rates in the intervening years [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7]. Core Views - Geely's sales continue to improve, with a projected increase in market share [2]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.49, 1.75, and 2.12 RMB respectively, while maintaining a target price of 22.35 RMB, equivalent to 24.54 HKD [4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 179,204 million RMB - 2024A: 240,194 million RMB - 2025E: 319,444 million RMB (33.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 381,363 million RMB (19.4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 442,685 million RMB (16.1% YoY growth) [6]. - **Operating Profit**: - 2023A: 3,806 million RMB - 2024A: 7,644 million RMB (100.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: 14,116 million RMB (84.7% YoY growth) - 2026E: 16,739 million RMB (18.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: 20,314 million RMB (21.4% YoY growth) [6]. - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: 5,308 million RMB - 2024A: 16,632 million RMB (213.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: 15,121 million RMB (-9.1% YoY decline) - 2026E: 17,735 million RMB (17.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 21,451 million RMB (21.0% YoY growth) [6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.53 RMB - 2024A: 1.65 RMB - 2025E: 1.49 RMB - 2026E: 1.75 RMB - 2027E: 2.12 RMB [6]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: Expected to increase from 15.3% in 2023A to 16.7% in 2027E - Net Margin: Expected to improve from 3.0% in 2023A to 4.8% in 2027E - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to rise from 6.6% in 2023A to 14.6% in 2027E [6]. Sales Performance Summary - In August, Geely's total sales reached 250,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.0% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [11]. - New energy vehicle sales in August were 147,300 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 95.2% [11]. - The company has achieved 63.2% of its annual sales target of 3 million units by the end of August [11]. Product Development and Market Position - The Galaxy brand's sales are on the rise, with significant contributions from new product launches [11]. - The Galaxy A7 and Galaxy M9 are expected to enhance market competitiveness, with pre-sales showing strong demand [11]. - Zeekr 9X has also shown promising pre-sale figures, indicating strong consumer interest in high-end models [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 47.30 CNY, reflecting a reasonable market value of 273.54 billion CNY [4][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown a narrowing loss with a significant increase in commercial product sales, leading to a 29% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, achieving 0.19 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.19 billion CNY, a 44% reduction in loss compared to the previous year [12]. - The company is actively expanding the indications for its approved products, with ongoing clinical trials for both Beifutini and Gexorase, which are expected to enhance their market presence [12]. - The research pipeline is well-structured, with several promising candidates in advanced clinical stages, indicating strong potential for business development opportunities [12]. Financial Forecast and Analysis - The company’s revenue is projected to decline from 186 million CNY in 2023 to 141 million CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 323 million CNY in 2026 and 525 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 129.3% and 62.6% respectively [6][15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from -284 million CNY in 2023 to -203 million CNY in 2025, with a further reduction to -94 million CNY by 2027 [6][15]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain high, around 97.2% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to improve significantly from -144.0% in 2025 to -17.8% in 2027 [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company's profitability is improving, with significant growth expected from the product Didasyn [10]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 4.33 billion yuan, with EPS estimates revised to 0.95 yuan for 2025, 1.10 yuan for 2026, and 1.25 yuan for 2027 [3][5]. - The target price is set at 25.30 yuan based on a 23x PE ratio for 2026 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 3.999 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 4.159 billion yuan, growing at 4.0% [5][12]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 714 million yuan in 2023, with a decline of 5.6%, but is expected to rise to 844 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.1% increase [5][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated at 619 million yuan for 2023, with a decrease of 6.5%, and is projected to grow to 712 million yuan in 2024, a 15.0% increase [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 51.5% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to increase from 15.5% to 18.9% over the same period [5][12]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 11.6% in 2023 to 12.8% in 2025 [5][12].