金融工程 | 动态跟踪 14 只科创综指相关基金产品获批，全 球首支代币化货币市场 ETF 面世 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 30 日 | 一、基金市场热点跟踪 3 | | --- | | 二、基金发行动态 3 | | 2.1 新成立基金 4 | | 2.2 新发行基金 5 | | 2.3 基金经理变更 6 | | 三、基金业绩表现 7 | | 3.1 上周业绩 7 | | 3.2 年初至今业绩 8 | | 四、场内基金动态 9 | | 风险提示 12 | | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | | | 邱蕊 | 021-63325888*5091 | | ⚫ | 基金市场热点跟踪：1. 14 只科创综指相关基金产品获批：3 月 27 日，11 只科创综 | | qiurui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 指场外指数增强基金和 3 只场外指数基金正式拿到监管批文，该批产品均于 2 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Factor: 3-Month Earnings Revision - **Construction Idea**: Measures the upward or downward revisions in earnings estimates over the past three months, reflecting changes in analysts' expectations[6][23][42] - **Construction Process**: Calculated as the difference between the number of upward and downward revisions in earnings estimates over the last three months, normalized by the total number of estimates[19][42] - **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in multiple index universes, indicating its effectiveness in capturing short-term earnings momentum[6][23][42] Factor: UMR (Up-Market Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: Captures momentum by analyzing risk-adjusted returns over different time windows (1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year)[6][19][42] - **Construction Process**: - **1-Month UMR**: Risk-adjusted momentum over a 1-month window - **3-Month UMR**: Risk-adjusted momentum over a 3-month window - **6-Month UMR**: Risk-adjusted momentum over a 6-month window - **1-Year UMR**: Risk-adjusted momentum over a 12-month window[19][42] - **Evaluation**: Consistently performs well across multiple index universes, particularly in capturing medium-term momentum trends[6][23][42] Factor: EPTTM (Earnings-to-Price Trailing Twelve Months) - **Construction Idea**: A valuation factor that measures the earnings yield based on trailing twelve months' earnings[19][42] - **Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of trailing twelve months' earnings to the current market price[19][42] - **Evaluation**: Shows strong performance in certain index universes, particularly in value-oriented strategies[6][23][42] Factor: DeltaROE - **Construction Idea**: Measures the change in return on equity (ROE) over a specific period, reflecting improvements or deteriorations in profitability[19][42] - **Construction Process**: Calculated as the difference in ROE between the current period and the same period in the previous year[19][42] - **Evaluation**: Effective in identifying companies with improving profitability trends[6][23][42] Factor: Analyst Coverage (3-Month) - **Construction Idea**: Tracks the number of analysts covering a stock over the past three months, reflecting market attention and sentiment[19][42] - **Construction Process**: Count of unique analysts issuing reports on a stock in the last three months[19][42] - **Evaluation**: Performs well in identifying stocks with increasing market interest[6][23][42] --- Factor Backtesting Results 3-Month Earnings Revision - **Recent 1 Week**: 1.94% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Recent 1 Month**: 0.82% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Year-to-Date**: 2.50% (China Securities All Index)[43] UMR (Up-Market Ratio) - **1-Month UMR**: - **Recent 1 Week**: 1.30% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Recent 1 Month**: 2.57% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Year-to-Date**: 3.85% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **3-Month UMR**: - **Recent 1 Week**: 0.75% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Recent 1 Month**: 2.14% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Year-to-Date**: 2.48% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **6-Month UMR**: - **Recent 1 Week**: 0.72% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Recent 1 Month**: 4.19% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Year-to-Date**: 1.12% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **1-Year UMR**: - **Recent 1 Week**: 0.74% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Recent 1 Month**: 3.92% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Year-to-Date**: 0.80% (China Securities All Index)[43] EPTTM - **Recent 1 Week**: 0.83% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Recent 1 Month**: 3.70% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Year-to-Date**: -0.22% (China Securities All Index)[43] DeltaROE - **Recent 1 Week**: 0.19% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Recent 1 Month**: -0.31% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Year-to-Date**: 1.66% (China Securities All Index)[43] Analyst Coverage (3-Month) - **Recent 1 Week**: 1.86% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Recent 1 Month**: 2.24% (China Securities All Index)[43] - **Year-to-Date**: 4.89% (China Securities All Index)[43] --- MFE Portfolio Construction - **Construction Method**: - Maximizes single-factor exposure while controlling for industry, style, and stock-specific deviations relative to the benchmark index[56][57][59] - Constraints include: - Style exposure limits - Industry exposure limits - Stock weight deviation limits - Turnover limits[56][57][59] - **Optimization Model**: $\begin{array}{ll}max&f^{T}w\\ s.t.&s_{l}\leq X(w-w_{b})\leq s_{h}\\ &h_{l}\leq H(w-w_{b})\leq h_{h}\\ &w_{l}\leq w-w_{b}\leq w_{h}\\ &b_{l}\leq B_{b}w\leq b_{h}\\ &0\leq w\leq l\\ &1^{T}w=1\\ &\Sigma|w-w_{0}|\leq to_{h}\end{array}$[56][57] - **Evaluation**: Effective in isolating factor performance under realistic portfolio constraints[56][57][60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 66.66 CNY, based on a current stock price of 50.85 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company is expected to experience a revenue growth of 5% and a net profit growth of 6% in 2024, reflecting a resilient performance during industry downturns [8][35]. - The company is actively reforming its product and market strategies under the new management, aiming to enhance market penetration and brand positioning [28][34]. - The valuation of the company is considered to have significant upside potential, with a reasonable valuation level set at 22 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [5][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Indicators and Trends - Early indicators show signs of recovery in the liquor industry, suggesting it may be nearing a cyclical bottom, supported by improving real estate transactions and rising machinery sales [8][12]. - The price indicators for premium liquor are approaching cyclical lows, indicating limited downside potential for prices [25]. 2. Company Performance and Strategy - The company has effectively managed inventory levels, leading to stable performance during industry downturns, with proactive measures taken to reduce stock levels since 2020 [35][36]. - The new management is implementing a dual-brand strategy, focusing on both mid-range and high-end markets, which is expected to enhance brand recognition and market share [28][34]. 3. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 2.76 CNY, 3.03 CNY, and 3.42 CNY respectively [5][6]. - The projected financial metrics indicate a steady growth trajectory, with revenue expected to reach 5,683 million CNY in 2025, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [6]. 4. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the core consumption scenarios for mid-range liquor are showing signs of stabilization, with slight improvements in restaurant revenues and consumer confidence [42][46]. - The company is expected to benefit from a potential economic recovery, which could lead to increased demand for its products [49].

药明康德 603259.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 业绩逐季提升，在手订单高速增长 ——药明康德 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预计公司 25-26 年归母净利润分别为 105.14、123.29 亿元（原预测值为 107.47、127.78 亿元），新增预测 27 年归母净利润为 137.01 亿元。根据可比公 司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 29 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 105.56 元，给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 医药研发服务市场需求下降的风险、新分子需求不及预期影响产能利用率的风险、 医药研发服务行业竞争加剧的风险、境外经营及国际政策变动风险、行业监管政策 变化的风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 40,341 | 39,241 | 42,455 | 48,444 | 54,453 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5% | -2.7% | 8.2% | 14.1% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the white liquor industry, which is nearing a cyclical bottom, supported by improving economic indicators and consumer confidence [8][12] - The new management is actively reforming the product and market strategy, aiming to enhance brand positioning and market penetration [28][34] - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 2.76, 3.03, and 3.42 yuan respectively [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5,218 million, 5,683 million, and 6,345 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 5.3%, 8.9%, and 11.6% respectively [6] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 82% for 2024-2026, while net profit margin is projected to be approximately 25.7% to 26.3% [6] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to decrease from 18.5 in 2024 to 14.9 in 2026, indicating a potential for upward valuation [6] Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is showing signs of recovery, with key indicators such as real estate transactions and consumer spending improving [12][14] - The company has effectively managed inventory levels, which has helped maintain performance during industry downturns [35] - The core consumption scene for mid-range liquor is showing signs of stabilization, with a slight increase in restaurant revenue [42][46] Strategic Initiatives - The new management is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with "Shuijingfang" and "Diyifang," targeting both mid-range and high-end markets [28][34] - The company is implementing a city-specific strategy to enhance market penetration and adapt to local conditions [34] - The proactive inventory management approach has positioned the company favorably against competitors during challenging market conditions [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec [6] Core Views - The company has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement in performance, with a significant increase in backlog orders, which grew by 47% year-on-year to 49.31 billion yuan [10] - The new molecule business (TIDES) has experienced rapid growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 57.2%, driven by strong market demand and the company's enhanced capabilities [10] - The company is expected to return to double-digit revenue growth in 2025, supported by robust order backlog and incentive plans for H-share awards [10] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 40.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, while the adjusted net profit was 9.61 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% increase [5] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 42.46 billion yuan, with an expected net profit of 10.51 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 11.3% [3][5] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 43.5% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 24.8% [5] Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates a reasonable valuation for the company at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29 times for 2025, leading to a target price of 105.56 yuan [3] - The current share price is noted at 68 yuan as of March 27, 2025 [6] Market Performance - The stock has shown a 49.64% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the market [7]

Domestic ESG Developments - SF Express has launched an aviation carbon neutrality plan by signing a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) purchase agreement with Sinopec and a certification center, marking the official start of its carbon neutrality initiative[12] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange achieved its carbon neutrality goal in 2024, with approximately 99% of its facilities using renewable energy and offsetting 55,000 tons of carbon credits[14] - Shanghai Yupei Supply Chain Management Group aims to source 100% cage-free eggs by 2030, responding to increasing market demand for animal welfare[15] - Ping An Bank released its 2024 Sustainable Development Report, highlighting a manufacturing loan balance of CNY 256.9 billion and a green loan balance of CNY 157.76 billion by the end of 2024[16] International ESG Developments - Amazon introduced a carbon credit investment service focused on reducing deforestation and promoting carbon removal technologies, available to companies with net-zero targets[17] - Nordea signed an agreement to remove at least 68,000 tons of CO2 from the atmosphere, marking the first of several carbon removal projects[18] - LEGO reported that 33% of its bricks will be made from renewable materials in 2024, nearly doubling from the previous year, as part of its sustainability goals[19] - Google launched a carbon footprint report for advertisers to help them measure and manage their advertising emissions, with initial testing showing lower emissions than previously estimated[20][21] - Major tech companies, including Amazon and Google, committed to tripling global nuclear power capacity by 2050 as part of a broader energy sustainability initiative[22] Green Finance Initiatives - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to issue RMB 6 billion green sovereign bonds in London, aimed at funding clean transportation and pollution prevention projects[23] - The Shanghai Green Finance Service Platform has launched a dedicated version to enhance financing accessibility for green projects[24] - Trina Solar and Industrial Bank signed the first ESG multi-indicator linked loan agreement in China, linking loan rates to environmental performance metrics[25] - The Ningbo branch of Bank of Communications issued its first ESG-linked loan of CNY 50 million, incentivizing environmental performance improvements through interest rate adjustments[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $630.2 million in 2024, with a significant contribution from oncology products, which generated $272 million, reflecting a 65% year-on-year growth [9] - The company has successfully reached financial self-sufficiency ahead of schedule, with a cash balance of $832 million at the end of the previous year [9] - The report highlights the rapid market penetration of the drug Fuzuloparib, with sales of $405 million in 2024, and the ongoing clinical progress of the drug Savolitinib [9] - The company is expanding its product pipeline into autoimmune and hematological malignancies, with new drug applications expected soon [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to $730.03 million and $840.85 million, respectively, down from previous estimates of $844 million and $1 billion [3] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 37.99, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 5.83 for 2025 [3] - The financial projections indicate a significant increase in net profit for 2025, estimated at $468.43 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 1141.58% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank with a target price of 7.18 CNY per share, reflecting a 20% valuation premium over the estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.80 for 2025 [3][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the reduction in agency fees has contributed to cost savings, leading to a favorable growth in corporate deposits and loans. The bank's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to the parent company showed year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.5%, and 0.2% respectively by the end of 2024 [11]. - The bank's total assets and loan growth rates have slightly slowed, with total assets growing by 8.6% and loans by 9.4% as of the end of 2024. Corporate loans increased by 13.5% year-on-year, indicating a balanced optimization in business structure [11]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.90% as of the end of 2024, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter. The retail sector has faced some pressure due to industry-specific factors, but the overall risk coverage remains adequate [11]. Financial Information Summary - The report provides detailed financial projections for Postal Savings Bank, including: - Revenue (in million CNY): 342,507 in 2023, projected to grow to 348,775 in 2024, and further to 374,031 by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.5% [5][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million CNY): 86,270 in 2023, with a slight increase to 86,479 in 2024, and projected to reach 93,348 by 2027 [5][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS): Expected to rise from 0.80 CNY in 2023 to 0.88 CNY by 2027 [5][13]. - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: Expected to decrease from 6.42 in 2023 to 6.07 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in market valuation [5][13].

Economic Overview - Turkey's GDP composition in 2023: Agriculture 6.2%, Industry 28.4%, Services 54.1%[2] - Per capita GDP increased from $3,608 in 2002 to $13,243 in 2023, a 3.7-fold rise[2] - Turkey's GDP growth stabilized above 5% post-2021, ranking as the 11th largest economy globally and the 4th in Europe[2] Economic Challenges - Turkey's industrial value added is relatively low compared to other emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia, with declining growth rates in both industrial and service sectors since 2024[2][3] - The country has been in a trade deficit, negatively impacting GDP growth, with net exports dragging down economic performance[3][23] - High inflation and reliance on energy imports have weakened Turkey's export competitiveness, prompting some foreign investments to shift to lower-cost countries like Egypt[3][23] Financial Vulnerabilities - Turkey's economy is highly sensitive to international capital flows, exacerbated by a dual deficit in trade and fiscal accounts, particularly under the pressure of the US interest rate hike cycle[4][28] - The Turkish lira is one of the most vulnerable currencies among emerging markets, with significant external debt repayment pressures due to rising dollar rates[4][28] Geopolitical Risks - Deteriorating US-Turkey relations post-2016 coup attempt have led to economic sanctions and heightened market volatility, exemplified by a 20% drop in the lira following US tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum[5][42] - Turkey's strategic geopolitical position as a NATO member in the Middle East complicates its foreign relations, particularly with the US and regional powers like Russia and Iran[6][48] Policy Responses - Turkey has shifted back to conventional monetary policy, raising interest rates from 8.5% in 2023 to 50% by the end of 2024 to combat inflation and stabilize the currency[39][40] - The government faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with stimulating domestic demand, leading to a complex policy environment[4][30]