2025 年 7 月 4 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 | | 外汇市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 中间价 | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.1523 | -0.03 | | 欧元兑人民币 | 8.4463 | 0.01 | | 日元兑人民币 | 0.0499 | -0.01 | | 港币兑人民币 | 0.9111 | -0.04 | 行业研究 【钢铁】落后产能退出预期再起，重视钢铁板块投资机会——钢铁行业动态点评(增持) 在中央财经委员会强调"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质， 推动落后产能有序退出"的大背景下，我们认为钢铁板块的盈利有望修复到历史均值 水平，钢铁股的 PB 也有望随之修复，重点推荐柳钢股份、三钢闽光、新钢股份、首 钢股份、华菱钢铁、宝钢股份等。 公司研究 【通信】双轮驱动，成长空间广阔——美格智能（002881.SZ）跟踪报告之六(增持) 我们认为，AI 应用有望带动公司产品需求快速增长，同时，公司智能模组/高算力模 组产品持续迭代，有望带动公司业绩高速增长。我们上调公司 25-26 年归母净利润预 测为 1.82/2.67 亿元 ...

2025 年 7 月 3 日 ——钢铁行业动态点评 要点 事件：（ 1）2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进 全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题，会议强调，纵深推进全 国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引 导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出；（2）7 月 2 日，Mysteel 关 于"唐山 7 月 4-15 日烧结机限产 30%"的传闻进行调研，了解到目前约半数钢 厂表示有收到通知，剩余多数钢厂也表示大概率确实有。 2025 年国内钢材需求、净出口量或进一步走弱，预计同比减少 0.34 亿吨。（1） 内需：根据冶金工业规划院预测，2025 年我国钢材需求量约为 8.50 亿吨，同比 -1.5%，较 2024 年减少 0.13 亿吨。（2）净出口：2024 年国内钢材净出口量为 1.04 亿吨（占当年粗钢产量的 10.34%），同比+25.78%。2025 年初以来，韩国、 越南对于我国部分钢材出口反倾销政策陆续落地，叠加美国对华钢铁加征关税政 策的影响，我们预测 2025 年钢材净出口或降至 2023 年水平，同比-0.21 亿吨 ...

大行晨報 - 加元短線或可先行獲利 - 2025 年 7 月 3 日星島日報 / 頭條日報 https://www.stheadline.com/columnists/finance- property/3470009/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1- %E5%8A%A0%E5%85%83%E7%9F%AD%E7%B7%9A%E6%88%96%E5%8F%AF%E5%85%88%E8%A1%8C %E7%8D%B2%E5%88%A9%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Views - The company adopts a dual-driven product strategy focusing on wireless communication modules and IoT solutions, which creates a competitive advantage through customized solutions for various vertical industries [1]. - The company is committed to high R&D investment, with an allocation of 256 million yuan for 2024, representing 8.69% of revenue, aimed at enhancing product and technological competitiveness [2]. - The company has submitted its application for overseas listing (H shares) to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, indicating plans for expansion and increased market presence [2]. - The company has implemented an incentive plan granting stock options and restricted stocks to key personnel, which may enhance employee motivation and align interests with shareholders [3]. - The forecast for the company's net profit has been revised upwards for 2025 and 2026, with expected profits of 182 million yuan and 267 million yuan respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory driven by AI applications and product iterations [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2,147 million yuan in 2023 to 5,556 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.79% [4][7]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 65 million yuan in 2023 to 357 million yuan in 2027, indicating a robust growth rate [4][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.25 yuan in 2023 to 1.36 yuan in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [4][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 187 in 2023 to 34 in 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [4][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 17.5% to 18.8% from 2025 to 2027, indicating a focus on maintaining profitability despite competitive pressures [9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.4% in 2023 to 15.8% in 2027, reflecting enhanced efficiency in generating profits from equity [9]. - The company’s total assets are anticipated to grow from 2,145 million yuan in 2023 to 3,696 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The coal, float glass, and steel industries are expected to experience negative profit growth year-on-year, while the refining industry maintains stable profitability due to a rebound in oil prices [1] - The overall economic data shows stability, with PMI rolling averages stabilizing and housing sales area declining slightly year-on-year [1] Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - As of June 30, 2025, the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index increased month-on-month, indicating a high market sentiment with over 60% of stocks rising [2] - Momentum indicators suggest a bullish outlook, with short-term sentiment indicators placing the CSI 300 index in a favorable emotional zone [2] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was CNY 1.8 trillion, with a year-on-year decline of 11.4% [3] - The sales area for the same period was 85.97 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22.2% [3] - Some leading real estate companies, such as China Jinmao and Yuexiu Property, showed positive sales growth, with increases of 20% and 11% respectively [3] Group 4: Company Research - The report highlights that GoerTek, a leading XR design and manufacturing company, is expected to benefit from the launch of AI glasses by Xiaomi, indicating a positive growth trend in the XR business [4] - The company's market share in XR manufacturing is high, and factors such as the recovery of its headphone business and optimization of its smart hardware product structure are expected to drive revenue growth [4] - The projected PE ratios for GoerTek from 2025 to 2027 are 24X, 20X, and 17X respectively, supporting a "buy" rating for the company [4]

2025 年 7 月 2 日 总量研究 能繁母猪存栏微增，炼化行业景气度同比持稳 ——金融工程行业景气月报 20250702 要点 行业景气度信号追踪 煤炭：25 年 6 月，煤价低于上年同期，我们预测 25 年 7 月行业利润同比下降， 维持煤炭行业中性观点。 畜牧养殖：25 年 5 月底能繁母猪存栏为 4042 万头，环比微增。据此我们预测 25Q4 生猪供需平衡，猪肉价格底部震荡，等待产能明显去化阶段。 普钢：我们预测 25 年 6 月普钢行业利润同比负增长。PMI 滚动均值环比未超阈 值，维持普钢行业中性信号。 结构材料与建筑工程：我们测算 25 年 6 月浮法玻璃毛利同比下降，维持玻璃行 业中性信号；我们预测水泥行业 25 年 6 月利润同比正增长，等待房屋新开工面 积出现积极信号，维持水泥行业中性观点；制造业 PMI 滚动均值企稳，商品房 销售数据同比微降，经济数据维持企稳态势，预计基建托底预期难以发酵，维持 建筑装饰行业中性信号。 燃料型炼化与油服：我们预测燃料型炼化行业 25 年 6 月利润同比大体持平，维 持中性观点。油价尚未形成同比上行趋势，新钻井同比大体持平，维持油服中性 观点。 风险分 ...

2025 年 7 月 2 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【金工】新股发行节奏提速，网下打新热度提升——打新市场跟踪月报 20250701 | 外汇市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 中间价 | | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.1534 | -0.07 | | 欧元兑人民币 | 8.4305 | 0.33 | | 日元兑人民币 | 0.0497 | 0.21 | | 港币兑人民币 | 0.9113 | -0.07 | | 利率市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回购市场 前加权平均利率% | | 涨跌 BP | | DR001 | 1.3673 | -14.29 | | DR007 | 1.5457 | -37.02 | | DR014 | 1.6194 | -27 | | 二级市场 | YTM% | 涨跌 BP | | 一年期国债 | 1.3377 | -0.25 | | 五年期国债 | 1.5075 | -0.54 | | 十年期国债 | 1.6433 | -0.36 | 数据来源：Wind, Bloomberg 2025 年 6 ...

——打新市场跟踪月报 20250701 要点 新股发行概况： 2025 年 7 月 1 日 金融工程 新股发行节奏提速，网下打新热度提升 双创板块（本文统计范围为创业板和科创板）采用网下打新的新股 3 只，上市 首日平均涨幅为 190.72%，环比+50.57pct，无个股破发；初步询价配售对象 为 6963 家，报价入围率为 89.89%，环比-4.27pct；网下中签率分别为 A 类： 0.24‰、C 类：0.22‰。 打新收益测算： 各板块当月打新收益测算方面，2025 年 6 月， 5 亿规模账户主板打新收益率为 A 类：0.014%、C 类：0.013%；创业板打新收益率为 A 类：0.035%、C 类： 0.034%；科创板打新收益率为 A 类：0.012%、C 类：0.012%。 各类账户逐月打新收益测算方面，2025 年 6 月，A 类账户 5 亿规模账户当月打 新收益率约为 0.168%，2025 年累计收益 0.743%；C 类账户 5 亿规模账户当 月打新收益率约为 0.166%，2025 年累计收益 0.670%。 风险分析：报告中模型测算的参数假设存主观性，不同参数可对测算结果产生 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the issuance of 16 supportive policies by the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission aimed at enhancing the high-quality development of innovative drugs [3] - It emphasizes a comprehensive support system that includes research and development, market access, payment mechanisms, and clinical application to transition China from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovative drug stronghold" [8] Summary by Sections Research and Development - Data empowerment and the introduction of patient capital are expected to reduce the risks associated with innovative drug development [4] - The policy guidance aims to lower the backend risks of innovative drug research and development [4] Market Access and Payment - The dual drive of medical insurance and commercial insurance is set to expand market opportunities [5] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for the medical insurance catalog will shorten the time gap between drug approval and market entry [7] - The introduction of a commercial health insurance catalog for innovative drugs will diversify the payment system for high-end innovative drugs [7] Clinical Application - The report highlights the optimization of processes and diversified guarantees to facilitate the final stages of drug application [6] - Encouragement for medical institutions to expedite the use of innovative drugs post-catalog updates is expected to enhance the speed of drug deployment in clinical settings [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading innovative drug companies and specialized biotech firms, including 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics), 康诺亚 (CanSino Biologics), 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec), and 凯莱英 (Kelun) [8]