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2025年市场全复盘:“水牛”中行业生态的重要变迁?
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-16 15:13
Group 1 - The A-share market in 2025 experienced a significant upward trend, with an overall increase of 27.65%, driven primarily by valuation recovery and two major uptrends in the market [7][12][19] - The market can be divided into four distinct phases: Phase 1 (Jan-Mar) led by DeepSeek and robotics concepts; Phase 2 (Apr-Jun) characterized by external shocks and internal support; Phase 3 (Jun-Nov) marked by liquidity and economic resonance; and Phase 4 (Nov-Dec) involving a consolidation phase after the main index rise [7][24][49] Group 2 - In 2025, 19 out of 30 Shenwan first-level industries (excluding comprehensive) achieved valuation recovery, with 14 industries seeing performance rebounds, indicating a broad-based improvement across sectors [19][24] - The electronic industry reached a market capitalization peak for the first time, surpassing traditional leaders, while Agricultural Bank's market cap exceeded that of Kweichow Moutai, marking a significant shift in industry leadership [7][19][32] - The number of stocks doubling in value in 2025 was second only to 2015, reflecting a strong market performance and investor interest [7][19][32] Group 3 - The A-share market's liquidity reached new heights, with financing balances hitting historical highs and total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan [12][32][33] - The growth and cyclical styles outperformed, with non-financial sectors like materials, electronics, and biomedicine leading the gains, while high-dividend assets lagged behind [18][19][24] - The market structure underwent notable changes, with increased industry rotation and a high degree of dispersion in industry performance, second only to 2020 [7][19][24]
晨会纪要2026年第8期-20260116
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-16 05:21
Group 1 - The report indicates that Shanghai Pudong Development Bank is expected to maintain a double-digit profit growth, with risk indicators reaching optimal levels in recent years [4][5] - The bank's revenue is projected to grow by 1.88% year-on-year in 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 10.52% [4][5] - The total assets of the bank are anticipated to exceed 10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate rising from 5.05% to 6.55% in Q4 2025 [4][5] Group 2 - The transportation industry report highlights growth in transportation operations and dividend value in infrastructure businesses for 2026 [6] - The aviation sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with passenger load factors reaching 85.2% and a potential recovery in ticket prices [8][9] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain structural growth, with a business volume of 180.74 billion pieces in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [10][11] Group 3 - The maritime sector is expected to experience long-term upward trends, particularly in oil transportation due to increasing demand and potential supply reductions [13][14] - The report notes that the demand for container shipping remains stable, with improvements in supply structure, while bulk shipping is supported by increased demand from specific projects [13][14] Group 4 - The report on Aerospace Hongtu indicates a promising outlook for overseas business growth, with significant contracts signed for satellite and ground system procurement [19][21] - The company is actively expanding its commercial aerospace capabilities, having launched a series of high-resolution radar satellites and developed an integrated satellite and rocket layout [22][23] Group 5 - The report on Zhuoyi Information emphasizes the dual growth drivers of AI and IDE products, with significant market potential and a focus on domestic and international developer communities [24][25] - The company is positioned to benefit from the integration of its BIOS products into the supply chain, enhancing its market presence in the context of domestic substitution [27][28] Group 6 - Zhonghui Biopharmaceutical is focused on innovative vaccine development, with its quadrivalent influenza vaccine already on the market and significant growth expected in its product pipeline [31][32] - The company aims to achieve profitability by 2027, driven by the commercialization of its core products and a robust vaccine pipeline [34]
国防军工事件点评:多国意向采购枭龙战机,世界百年变局重视军贸战略性机遇
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-15 15:37
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][7] Core Insights - The report highlights the strategic opportunities in military trade, particularly the interest from multiple countries in procuring the JF-17 "Thunder" fighter jet, which has shown outstanding performance in combat [5][6] - The global geopolitical landscape remains complex, with ongoing issues such as the Ukraine crisis and increased military budgets in the U.S., suggesting a heightened demand for military trade [5][6] - China's military trade market is expected to open up significantly, driven by the emphasis on high-end equipment exports and the increasing importance of military trade within the defense industry [6][7] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The defense and military industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month increase of 25.0%, a 3-month increase of 27.9%, and a 12-month increase of 58.0% compared to the CSI 300's increases of 3.5%, 4.5%, and 24.1% respectively [4] Investment Highlights - The JF-17 "Thunder" fighter jet is attracting interest from various air forces due to its advanced avionics, active phased array radar, and cost-effectiveness compared to foreign counterparts [6] - The successful combat performance of the J-10CE fighter jet in 2025 has garnered global attention, showcasing the capabilities of Chinese military equipment [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of military aircraft as core platforms for integrated combat systems, which can drive growth in related manufacturing and systems industries [6] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a golden period for China's military trade over the next five years, supported by supply-side reforms and a richer product spectrum [7] - Key areas for investment include main platform manufacturers, unmanned systems, guided munitions, and radar systems, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [7]
固定收益专题研究:城农商行改革化险成效几何?
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-15 12:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "non - redemption" of secondary and perpetual bonds of small and medium - sized financial institutions is expected not to become a regular event causing systemic financial risks. After the restructuring of urban and rural commercial banks, key indicators may improve, and asset scale and quality may be systematically enhanced, effectively controlling "non - redemption" events [3]. - In 2025, the integration of small and medium - sized financial institutions across the country achieved remarkable results. The number of legal entities of banking financial institutions decreased compared to the end of 2024 and the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan". Urban commercial banks mainly used absorption and merger models to integrate rural banks, while rural commercial banks promoted the establishment of provincial - level rural commercial banks under four models [3][25]. - In the context of reform and risk mitigation in 2026, it is recommended to moderately dig for coupons along the two main lines of changes in the subject level and the strength of regional economies, combined with key indicators. Attention should also be paid to the positive impacts on regional rural commercial banks under the unified legal person model and the opportunities for secondary and perpetual bonds in provinces with a good economic foundation under the joint - bank model [3][4][53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1中小金融机构风险为何成为市场焦点 - In October 2025, relevant policies proposed to resolve risks of small and medium - sized financial institutions, making risk resolution a key focus in 2026. Small and medium - sized financial institutions face risks due to multiple factors, and the spread of relevant public opinions such as "delayed interest payment" of secondary and perpetual bonds and "non - redemption" of capital - supplementing bonds has attracted attention [9]. 3.2聚焦商业银行"不赎回"风险 - In 2025, regulatory authorities in Shandong and Tianjin required reporting of non - redemption of secondary capital bonds within 24 hours. Since the first case of non - redemption of secondary capital bonds by commercial banks, most non - redeeming entities have faced various problems. From 2018 to 2025, most non - redeeming entities were urban and rural commercial banks, and non - redemption cases were concentrated in northern and central provinces. Since 2023, non - redemption events have gradually decreased, and it is expected not to cause systemic financial risks [9][12]. - As of the end of 2025, banks that do not exercise the redemption right find it difficult to issue new bonds. Among the entities that have triggered "non - redemption" events, 7 have issued new bonds, including 2 urban commercial banks and 5 rural commercial banks. Since 2024, only Tianjin Bank, Jiujiang Bank, and Yinzhou Rural Commercial Bank, with AA + and above ratings, have issued new secondary and perpetual bonds, showing premiums compared to similar bonds [21]. 3.3城农商行整合成效几何 - In 2025, the number of small and medium - sized financial institutions such as urban and rural commercial banks continued to decrease. Urban commercial banks mainly used absorption and merger models to integrate rural banks, while rural commercial banks promoted the establishment of provincial - level rural commercial banks under four models. As of the end of 2025, 14 rural commercial banks had clear integration progress, mainly in the "unified legal person" and "joint - bank" models [25][27]. - In terms of asset scale, in 2025, the asset - scale growth rates of joint - stock and urban and rural commercial banks accelerated, with urban commercial banks having a significantly higher growth rate. Urban commercial banks' growth was mainly due to credit expansion in the Yangtze River Delta region, while rural commercial banks' asset scale increased slightly. In terms of asset quality, rural commercial banks' non - performing loans decreased significantly in the process of integration, and their provision coverage ratio increased, while urban commercial banks had an increase in non - performing loan balances and a weakening of the provision coverage ratio [30][33]. - In terms of capital adequacy, from 2023 - 2025, the core tier - 1 capital of commercial banks increased significantly. Since 2025, the capital adequacy ratio and core tier - 1 capital have shown a fluctuating downward trend. In 2025, only state - owned large - scale banks and rural commercial banks saw an increase in capital adequacy ratio. Rural commercial banks' capital adequacy ratio was optimized through integration, while urban commercial banks' capital adequacy ratio fluctuated between 12% - 13% [38]. - The important capital - supplementing channels for banks include capital increase and share expansion, shareholder injection, special treasury bonds, TLAC, special bonds for small and medium - sized banks, convertible bonds, secondary and perpetual bonds, and internal sources. Rural commercial banks may rely more on direct forms such as "shareholder injection" and "debt - to - equity swap" in the short term and need to strengthen asset quality and expand financing channels in the long term [43]. 3.4改革化险背景下如何挖掘 - In 2026, state - owned large - scale banks and joint - stock banks are the main entities for the exercise and maturity of secondary and perpetual bonds, and the maturity scale of urban and rural commercial banks' existing bonds is relatively small. It is recommended to moderately dig for coupons along the two main lines of changes in the subject level and the strength of regional economies. Attention should be paid to the positive impacts on regional rural commercial banks under the unified legal person model and the opportunities for secondary and perpetual bonds in provinces with a good economic foundation under the joint - bank model. For provinces in the early stage of integration, opportunities in regions such as Guangdong and Hunan can be considered [53].
固定收益点评:再论转债抢权配售策略
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-15 09:31
Core Insights - The report discusses the "subscription rights allocation strategy," which involves buying the underlying stock to obtain convertible bond subscription rights, benefiting from both stock price differences and convertible bond issuance [3][4] - The strategy's effectiveness is highly correlated with market conditions, showing better performance in bull markets compared to bear markets [13][15] - Key factors influencing the success of the strategy include the selection of underlying stocks, market environment, and timing of purchases [12][51] Strategy Overview - The subscription rights allocation strategy is characterized by buying the underlying stock at critical approval stages and holding until the subscription date to secure convertible bond rights [3][5] - The ideal entry points are when the listing committee approves or agrees to register, minimizing uncertainty and locking in subscription rights before bond issuance [5][6] Market Environment Analysis - The strategy's returns vary significantly with market conditions, with bull markets yielding the highest returns, primarily driven by stock performance [13][15] - In bear markets, returns are mainly derived from convertible bond allocations, with stock performance negatively impacting overall returns [13][15] Stock Selection Criteria - The report identifies that industries such as light manufacturing, automotive, and electronics show superior performance in the subscription rights allocation strategy [17][22] - Smaller-scale convertible bond issuances tend to yield higher returns due to lower market impact and higher per-share allocation amounts [22][26] - Stocks with larger market capitalizations and moderate ROE (Return on Equity) levels are preferred, as they contribute more significantly to overall returns [31][39] Performance Metrics - The report analyzes the performance of 690 convertible bonds issued between January 2020 and December 2025, highlighting the importance of entry and exit timing [12][13] - Average returns from different entry points show that buying on the listing committee approval day yields an average stock price increase of 4.47%, while buying on the registration agreement day yields 2.91% [6][12] Future Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on convertible bonds currently in the approval or registration stages, particularly in high-performing sectors like automotive and electronics [49][50] - Recommended stocks include those with strong fundamentals, high growth rates, and favorable market conditions, ensuring a balanced approach to risk and return [49][50]
国海证券晨会纪要-20260114
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-14 01:46
Group 1 - The macro funding environment has shown marginal contraction, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of 165.5 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos and 1100 billion yuan through 3-month reverse repos, resulting in a total net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan for the week [2] - The total margin balance has exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for leveraged funds, with significant net inflows in sectors such as electronics and non-ferrous metals, while sectors like food and beverage and building materials experienced net outflows [2] - The stock market's funding demand pressure has eased, with equity financing dropping to 4.385 billion yuan and the scale of restricted stock releases slightly decreasing to 165.032 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - The overall structure of stock market funding supply is differentiated, with a notable decline in equity fund issuance and net outflows from stock ETFs amounting to 181 million yuan, while broad-based ETFs saw inflows primarily into indices like CSI 500 and CSI 300 [2] - The net outflow from the CSI A500 index was 13.143 billion yuan, contrasting with a net inflow of 49.324 billion yuan in the previous week [2] - The strategy style indicates a significant net inflow into free cash flow funds, while the CSI Dividend index experienced a notable net outflow [2]
——流动性周报1月第1期:资金需求端缓和,两融余额创历史新高-20260113
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-13 03:04
Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment has shown marginal convergence, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of 16,550 billion yuan through open market operations, resulting in a total net withdrawal of 5,550 billion yuan for the week [7][8] - Short-term interest rates have decreased, while long-term interest rates have increased, leading to a widening of the yield spread [7][8] - The overall structure of equity fund supply has shown significant differentiation, with a notable decline in equity fund issuance and a record high in margin financing balance, which has surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan [2][10] Group 2 - The financing net inflow has been concentrated in the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors, while the food and beverage and building materials sectors have experienced net outflows [10][14] - The stock ETF has seen a net outflow of 1.81 billion yuan, reversing the previous week's net inflow of 354.41 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [10][12] - The overall pressure on the stock market's funding demand has eased, with equity financing dropping to 43.85 billion yuan, and the scale of restricted stock unlocks decreasing to 1,650.32 billion yuan [13][15] Group 3 - The IPO issuance for the week amounted to 15.55 billion yuan, down from 33.01 billion yuan the previous week, indicating a slowdown in new equity offerings [15][16] - The scale of directed placements has significantly decreased to 28.3 billion yuan from 172.08 billion yuan, reflecting a contraction in capital raising activities [15][16] - The net reduction in industrial capital has also decreased to 126.23 billion yuan from 146.61 billion yuan, suggesting a reduction in selling pressure from major shareholders [15][23]
国海证券晨会纪要:2026年第6期-20260113
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-13 01:56
Group 1 - The report highlights the transition from liquidity-driven markets to "physical validation" in 2026, marking a key year for the conversion of global monetary impulses into physical output [4] - It discusses the asymmetric game of global credit functions, with the US driving demand through administrative rate cuts and fiscal subsidies, Japan acting as an auditor of high-interest projects, and China filling global physical gaps as a "deflationary dividend" provider [5][6][7] - Asset allocation strategies are suggested under credit stratification, focusing on selecting targets with "physical rigidity" and cash flow resilience, particularly in the US, Japan, and China [8][9][10] Group 2 - The automotive sector saw a week-on-week increase in trading volume, but the automotive index underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with significant declines in several key stocks [11][12] - Multiple new models from Xiaopeng and BYD were announced, including the Xiaopeng P7+ and G7, which will feature advanced AI capabilities and a dual technology route of pure electric and extended range [14][15] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting opportunities in domestic high-end brands and the acceleration of intelligent technology integration [16] Group 3 - The report notes the approval of SpaceX to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, enhancing global internet service and suggesting investment opportunities in commercial aerospace and high-end materials [19][20] - China's "South Gate Plan" is introduced, focusing on future aerospace technologies, including high-speed flight and intelligent decision-making systems, indicating potential growth in related industries [21][22] Group 4 - The bond market is experiencing a "low volatility" trend, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to approximately 1.88% as of January 9, 2026, and a shift in institutional behavior noted [24][25][26] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond may continue to exhibit low volatility, enhancing its defensive attributes and making it a more liquid asset [26][27] Group 5 - The report indicates that the pig farming industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, with a focus on low-cost operations and potential value reassessment for leading companies [38][39][40] - The poultry sector is expected to improve, with a notable increase in the number of breeding chickens and a focus on companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Shares [40] Group 6 - The mechanical equipment sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with recommendations for companies involved in motorcycles, tools, and engineering machinery, as well as emerging technologies like humanoid robots and solid-state batteries [47][48][49] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the manufacturing sector, particularly in exports and innovative technologies, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies in these areas [47][48] Group 7 - The report discusses the acquisition of Hebei Kanda by Chaoyun Group for up to 450 million yuan, aimed at enhancing market competitiveness in home care products and increasing market coverage [55][56]
——农林牧渔行业周报:生猪行业持续亏损,去产能或加速-20260112
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-12 11:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][66]. Core Insights - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities at the bottom of the market. Regulatory measures are being reinforced to control pig prices, with expectations of a gradual adjustment rather than aggressive interventions. The focus is on low-cost performance and dividend increases for value reassessment, particularly for leading companies like Muyuan Foods and WH Group [1][14]. - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in fundamentals, with historical highs in the number of breeding stock updates. The price dynamics are currently low, but there is potential for marginal changes in the cycle. Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Lihua Agricultural [2][28]. - The animal health sector is advancing with the clinical trials of the African swine fever subunit vaccine, which has received approval for clinical trials. The likelihood of domestic vaccine market entry is increasing, with recommended companies including BioFeng and Kexin Biological [3][6]. - The pet industry continues to grow rapidly, with significant improvements in profitability. Recommended companies in the pet food sector include GuaiBao Pet and ZhongChong Co., while in the pet medical sector, RuiPu Biological is highlighted [9][60]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The swine industry is experiencing a capacity reduction phase, with regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing prices. The average price of pigs in December 2025 was 11.59 CNY/kg, with a slight month-on-month decrease. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [13][14]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and WH Group, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][14]. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is seeing a potential improvement in fundamentals, with breeding stock updates reaching historical highs. The average price for broiler chickens was 3.9 CNY/jin, with a slight increase [26][28]. - Recommended companies are Shennong Development and Lihua Agricultural [2][28]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is focused on the progress of the African swine fever vaccine trials, with the first round of trials proceeding as planned. The second round is set to begin by the end of March 2026 [3][6]. - Companies to watch include BioFeng, Kexin Biological, and RuiPu Biological [6]. Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The average annual spending per pet dog is 2,961 CNY, while for cats, it is 2,020 CNY [59][60]. - Recommended companies include GuaiBao Pet, ZhongChong Co., and Peidi Co. in the pet food sector, and RuiPu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][60]. Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with the price of feed for fattening pigs at 3.34 CNY/kg, showing a month-on-month increase [47][48]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and HeFeng Co. [48]. Planting Industry - Grain prices have increased year-on-year, with corn prices at 2,250 CNY/ton, showing a 10.5% increase compared to the previous year [41][46]. - Companies to focus on include SuKan Agricultural Development, LongPing High-Tech, and DengHai Seeds [7][46].
债券研究周报:10年国债低波化-20260112
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-12 09:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The bond market had a "bad start" in 2026. On January 9th, the yield to maturity of the 10-year Treasury bond rose to around 1.88% compared to the beginning of the year. The report focuses on potential changes in market institutional behaviors and makes three subsequent judgments [6][14]. - The bond market continues to "depend on funds for ups and downs", but large banks have joined the secondary allocation of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds since late December 2025, which is an uncommon change in history. From January 4th to January 9th, funds sold over 300 billion yuan of bonds, pushing interest rates up, while large banks significantly increased their net purchases of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds [6][14]. - Looking ahead, the 10-year Treasury bond may become more "low-volatility" as banks hold significantly more Treasury bonds than funds for the 10-year term, making it easier to play a stabilizing role. The difference in volatility (10Y CDB + 30Y Treasury - 2 * 10Y Treasury) has been rising since the second half of 2025 and is expected to continue [6][16]. - The low volatility of the 10-year Treasury bond may keep its trading volume at a relatively low level as trading desks gradually switch to other varieties. The trading volume of the 10-year Treasury bond may continue to be at a relatively low level in the future [9][19]. - The spread between the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year CDB bond may further widen. Under the influence of supply and demand, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds still has a widening trend, while the spread between the 10-year CDB and 10-year Treasury bonds may see the decline of some previous liquidity premiums due to the decrease in the trading volume of the 10-year Treasury bond, driving the implied tax rate to a relatively low level [9][19]. - Overall, the low volatility of the 10-year Treasury bond may enhance its defensive attributes, turning it into an asset with liquidity, duration, and relatively small fluctuations. The bond market is likely to remain in a volatile trend in the future [8][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market had a "bad start" in 2026. The 10-year Treasury bond yield to maturity rose to around 1.88% on January 9th compared to the beginning of the year. The report focuses on potential changes in market institutional behaviors and makes three subsequent judgments [6][14]. - The bond market continues to "depend on funds for ups and downs", but large banks have joined the secondary allocation of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds since late December 2025, which is an uncommon change in history. From January 4th to January 9th, funds sold over 300 billion yuan of bonds, pushing interest rates up, while large banks significantly increased their net purchases of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds [6][14]. - The change may be traced back to the first-quarter 2025 Monetary Policy Implementation Report. In September 2025, the central bank optimized the evaluation system for primary dealers, adding the "performance in stabilizing the market during bond market fluctuations". It is expected that large banks will further join small and medium-sized banks as trading counterparts to non-bank institutions [15]. - Three judgments on the impact of this change: the 10-year Treasury bond may become more "low-volatility"; its trading volume may remain at a relatively low level; the spread between the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year CDB bond may further widen. Overall, the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile trend [6][9][16]. 2. Bond Yield Curve Tracking 2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of January 9th, compared to January 4th, the 1-year Treasury bond yield to maturity decreased by 4.35bp to 1.29%; the 10-year Treasury bond yield to maturity increased by 3.55bp to 1.88%; the 30-year Treasury bond yield to maturity increased by 4.95bp to 2.30%. - The spread between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds increased by 1.40bp to 42.42bp, and the spread between the 10-year CDB and 10-year Treasury bonds increased by 0.70bp to 15.05bp [20]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Maturity Spread Changes - As of January 9th, compared to January 4th, the 3Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread increased by 12.89bp to 17.19bp; the 5Y - 3Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 5.50bp to 19.45bp; the 7Y - 5Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 0.27bp to 10.42bp; the 10Y - 7Y Treasury bond spread increased by 0.78bp to 11.89bp; the 20Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread increased by 1.45bp to 41.02bp; the 30Y - 20Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 0.05bp to 1.40bp [24]. 3. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.1 Interbank Pledged Repurchase Balance - As of January 9th, 2026, compared to January 4th, the interbank pledged repurchase balance increased by 0.81 trillion yuan to 13.08 trillion yuan [25]. 3.2 Interbank Bond Market Leverage Ratio Changes - As of January 9th, 2026, compared to January 4th, the interbank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.50pct to 107.88% [29]. 3.3 Pledged Repurchase Transaction Volume - From January 4th to January 9th, the average pledged repurchase transaction volume was 7.51 trillion yuan. The average overnight pledged repurchase transaction volume was about 6.79 trillion yuan, and the average overnight transaction volume accounted for 91.09% [31][34]. 3.4 Interbank Funding Situation - From January 4th to January 9th, bank fund lending continued to rise. As of January 9th, large banks' net fund lending was 5.90 trillion yuan, small and medium-sized banks' net fund borrowing was 0.68 trillion yuan, and the net lending of the banking system was 5.22 trillion yuan. - In terms of funding rates, as of January 9th, DR001 was 1.2727%, DR007 was 1.4727%, R001 was 1.3480%, and R007 was 1.5157% [35]. 4. Medium and Long-Term Bond Fund Durations 4.1 Median Bond Fund Duration - As of January 9th, the median duration of medium and long-term bond funds (deleveraged) was 2.60 years, an increase of 0.02 years compared to January 4th; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.73 years, an increase of 0.01 years compared to January 4th [43]. 4.2 Median Interest Rate Bond Fund Duration - As of January 9th, the median duration of interest rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.68 years, a decrease of 0.04 years compared to January 4th; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.48 years, an increase of 0.05 years compared to January 4th. - As of January 9th, the median duration of interest rate bond funds (deleveraged) was 3.31 years, unchanged compared to January 4th; the median duration of credit bond funds (deleveraged) was 2.39 years, an increase of 0.02 years compared to January 4th [46]. 5. Bond Lending Balance Changes - As of January 9th, compared to January 4th, the borrowing volume of the 10-year CDB bond showed fluctuations [50].