Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle, driven by the recovery of demand and limited supply in certain sectors [30] - The chromium salt and phosphate rock sectors are highlighted as key areas of focus due to their potential for growth and value reassessment [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with cost advantages and stable market positions, particularly in the context of rising prices for key products [10][30] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 2.4% over the last month, 1.0% over the last three months, and 8.9% over the last year, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Key Opportunities - Focus on chromium salt and phosphate rock industries, with expectations of continued demand growth in fine phosphorus chemicals and lithium iron phosphate batteries [7] - Companies like Zhuhai Holdings and Baitian Co. are noted for their capacity expansions and potential for increased profitability [7][9] Price Trends - Recent price adjustments include a decrease in metal chromium prices from 76,000 yuan/ton to 73,000 yuan/ton, reflecting market fluctuations and demand shifts [5][17] - Phosphate rock prices are stable at 1,038 yuan/ton, with expectations of a reassessment of value due to supply constraints [19] Company Focus - Companies such as Zhuhai Holdings and Baitian Co. are highlighted for their strategic advantages in technology innovation, cost reduction, and capacity expansion [5][7] - The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector are entering a long-term upward performance cycle, supported by their competitive advantages [8][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies with low-cost expansion capabilities, such as Wanhu Chemical and Yantai Chemical, as well as those in the chromium salt and phosphate rock sectors [9][10] - High dividend yield companies, particularly state-owned enterprises, are also recommended for their stable returns and resource advantages [10][11]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights China Shenhua (601088.SH) as a state-owned enterprise with a stable operation and high dividend yield, characterized by low debt, high cash reserves, and a robust dividend policy, with a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 224.71% from 2022 to 2024 [3][4] - The company operates an integrated business model encompassing coal production, transportation, power generation, and coal chemical industries, with a projected gross profit margin distribution of 69.93% for coal, 13.36% for power, and smaller contributions from other segments [3][4] Group 2: Coal Business - China Shenhua possesses significant coal resources, with a total resource volume of 34.36 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 15.09 billion tons, ensuring a long asset duration and sustainable high dividends [4] - The company has a high long-term contract ratio exceeding 80%, which helps mitigate price volatility, and its coal production cost is competitive at 179 RMB per ton, leading to a projected gross profit of 67.1 billion RMB for 2025 [4][5] Group 3: Power Generation - The company has a total installed capacity of 46,264 MW as of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.65%, and plans to enhance its coal self-sufficiency rate, which currently stands at 76% [5] - The projected gross profit for the power segment in 2025 is estimated at 16.5 billion RMB, supported by an increase in electricity sales volume [5] Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - China Shenhua operates an extensive railway network of 2,408 kilometers, facilitating efficient coal transportation, with a stable increase in self-owned railway turnover [6] - The company also manages multiple ports and shipping operations, with a projected gross profit of 1.64 billion RMB from transportation and logistics in 2025 [6][7] Group 5: Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment includes a coal-to-olefins project with a capacity of 600,000 tons per year, with ongoing upgrades expected to enhance profitability [7] - The projected gross profit for the coal chemical division in 2025 is estimated at 400 million RMB [7] Group 6: Investment Outlook - The report forecasts revenue growth for China Shenhua, with expected revenues of 302.84 billion RMB in 2025, 315.26 billion RMB in 2026, and 327.99 billion RMB in 2027, alongside a net profit forecast of 51.40 billion RMB for 2025 [8] - The company is expected to maintain a strong investment value due to its integrated business model and increasing dividend payout ratios, with a "buy" rating recommended [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to PELLIOT, highlighting its rapid growth and market position as a leading high-performance outdoor apparel brand in China [2][9]. Core Insights - PELLIOT has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 378 million RMB in 2022 to 1.766 billion RMB in 2024, representing a CAGR of 116%. Net profit surged from 24 million RMB to 283 million RMB during the same period, with a CAGR of 243% [2][9]. - The company holds a market share of 5.2% in the high-performance outdoor apparel sector, ranking among the top three domestic brands in China as of 2024 [2][9]. - The Chinese functional apparel market is projected to grow from 484.3 billion RMB in 2024 to over 823.1 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 11.2% [2][23]. - The high-performance outdoor apparel segment is expected to grow from 102.7 billion RMB in 2024 to 215.8 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 16.0% [2][24]. Company Overview - PELLIOT, established in 2012, focuses on technological innovation and has developed a multi-tiered product matrix that includes four main lines: Peak Series, Professional Performance Series, Mountain Series, and Classic Series [2][8]. - The Classic Series contributed 82.7% of the revenue in 2024, indicating a strong market presence [9]. Market Dynamics - The high-performance outdoor apparel market in China is characterized by a fragmented landscape, with the top ten brands holding only 27.3% of the market share, indicating substantial growth opportunities for domestic brands like PELLIOT [2][24]. - The core category of jackets and pants is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size expected to increase from 30 billion RMB in 2024 to 75.4 billion RMB by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 20.2% [2][34]. Competitive Advantages - PELLIOT adopts a high cost-performance strategy, with its Classic Series priced between 169-970 RMB, making it more competitive compared to international brands priced above 1,000 RMB [2][42]. - The company has successfully launched several best-selling products, including the "three-in-one down jacket," which has sold over ten million units [2][43]. - PELLIOT's direct-to-consumer (DTC) model has significantly contributed to its revenue, with online channels accounting for 76.5% of total revenue in 2024 [2][52]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin has improved from 54.3% in 2022 to 59.6% in 2024, driven by enhanced pricing power and effective cost control [2][61]. - PELLIOT's sales and distribution expenses have been substantial, reflecting its reliance on online DTC channels, with sales expenses exceeding 30% of total revenue [2][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua [1] Core Views - China Shenhua is a high-quality representative of dividend stocks with stable operations and high dividends, benefiting from its state-owned enterprise background and integrated coal production, transportation, and sales operations [7][9] - The company has a robust asset base with significant coal reserves and a high proportion of long-term contracts, which provide price resilience and cost advantages [7][27] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Shenhua is a leading integrated energy company under the State Energy Group, with a state-owned background and a diversified business model covering coal, electricity, railways, ports, shipping, and coal chemical industries [9][10] - As of December 2024, the company had a gross profit distribution of 69.93% from coal, 13.36% from electricity, and other segments contributing smaller percentages [7][9] Coal Business - The company has abundant coal resources, with a total resource volume of 34.36 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 15.09 billion tons, ranking it among the top in the industry [27] - The coal production cost for 2024 was 179 yuan per ton, which is lower than most peers, and the company achieved a coal business gross profit of 80.6 billion yuan [7][37] Electricity Business - China Shenhua has a total installed capacity of 46,264 MW as of 2024, with plans for further capacity increases through acquisitions [7] - The electricity segment's gross profit is projected to be 16.5 billion yuan in 2025, benefiting from improved coal self-sufficiency [7] Transportation Business - The company operates an extensive railway network that efficiently supports coal transportation, with a total railway operating mileage of 2,408 kilometers [7][11] - The transportation segment's gross profit is expected to be 1.64 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Coal Chemical Business - The company is advancing its coal-to-olefins project in Baotou, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons per year [7] - The coal chemical segment's gross profit is anticipated to be 400 million yuan in 2025 [7] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 302.84 billion yuan, 315.26 billion yuan, and 327.99 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 51.40 billion yuan, 53.70 billion yuan, and 56.13 billion yuan [7] - The report emphasizes the company's integrated advantages across the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors, reinforcing its investment value and maintaining a "Buy" rating [7]

Group 1 - Market activity has slightly decreased, while the transportation infrastructure sector has seen continuous growth in total market value [2][3] - The primary market has a sufficient project reserve, with multiple projects in various stages of the approval process as of May 30, 2025 [2] - The REITs index has outperformed other indices, with the total market value of REITs decreasing to 198.207 billion, reflecting a drop of 0.224 billion from the previous week [2][3] Group 2 - The transportation infrastructure sector leads with a weighted average weekly increase of 0.67%, while the energy infrastructure sector follows with a 0.60% increase [3] - The cash distribution rates for different types of REITs show significant variation, with the average cash distribution rate for property-type REITs at 3.87% and for concession-type REITs at 8.33% [3] - The current market valuation for convertible bonds is at a moderately high level, with the premium rate maintaining between 22%-23% as of May 30, 2025 [5][6] Group 3 - The Vega strategy is highlighted as a method to identify mispricing in convertible bonds, particularly in volatile market conditions [6][7] - The mid-low Vega strategy is recommended for current market conditions, as it has shown strong adaptability and performance across various market environments [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The CSI Convertible Bond Index is approaching its previous high, and the overall market valuation is at a moderately high level under the stock - bond steady state. The high - level operation of the index is mainly due to the sharp rise of low - price bonds since September 2024. The current convertible bond valuation is moderately high, and if the market remains stable, the valuation is expected to maintain the current equilibrium level. The Vega strategy can capture mispriced convertible bonds in terms of volatility sensitivity. When market volatility intensifies, low - Vega convertible bonds show stronger resilience. In the current market situation, using the low - to - medium Vega strategy for bond selection is a good approach, and the Q2 quantile Vega portfolio is more practical [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of the Convertible Bond Market Situation - The CSI Convertible Bond Index is approaching its previous high, mainly driven by the sharp rise of low - price bonds since September 2024. The overall market valuation is moderately high, with the 100 - yuan premium rate maintaining in the 22% - 23% range as of May 30. Historically, valuation compression was caused by micro - cap stock negative feedback, the large - cap dividend style, and credit risk events. If the market remains stable, the valuation is expected to stay at the current equilibrium [5][6][9]. - Different price ranges of convertible bonds show significant valuation differentiation. Bonds priced between 100 - 110 yuan are mostly bond - like, and their valuation is at a five - year high. High - and medium - priced convertible bonds have relatively lower valuations, with those above 130 yuan at a low level since 2021 [7]. 2. The Convertible Bond's Low - to - Medium Vega Strategy 2.1 How the Low - to - Medium Vega Strategy Resists Volatility - Convertible bonds are a composite product of bonds and embedded options, and their value is often mispriced due to stock - bond fluctuations. The Vega strategy can capture mispriced convertible bonds in terms of volatility sensitivity. When market volatility increases, low - to - medium Vega convertible bonds show stronger resilience [14]. 2.2 How to Construct the Low - to - Medium Vega Portfolio - Determine the convertible bond pool: On the rebalancing day, select bonds with a rating above BBB (excluding), a remaining term of more than 1 year, a listing date of more than one year ago, and a balance of more than 100 million yuan. - Calculate the convertible bond Vega value: On the rebalancing day, calculate the Vega values of eligible convertible bonds, select valid and positive Vega values, and exclude extremely high and low Vega values. - Construct the portfolio: Divide the calculated Vega values into five equal groups using the quantile method, with a two - way fee of 0.3%. Rebalance on the first trading day of each month and calculate the portfolio return, IC value, and win - rate using equal - weight [18]. 2.3 When Different Quantile Vega Strategies Dominate - In the rapid upward period (October 2024 - March 2025), the Q3 quantile Vega convertible bond portfolio achieved the best risk - return ratio, with a ranking of Q3>Q4>Q2>Q5>Q1 in terms of return and Q3<Q2<Q5<Q4<Q1 in terms of volatility [23]. - In the sideways shock period (May - July 2023), the Q2 quantile Vega portfolio had the best risk - return ratio, with a return ranking of Q3>Q2>Q4>Q5>Q1 and a volatility ranking of Q5<Q4<Q2<Q1<Q3 [24]. - In the rapid downward period (June - September 2024), the medium - quantile Vega convertible bond portfolio had the smallest drawdown, with a return ranking of Q3>Q4>Q2>Q1>Q5 and a volatility ranking of Q2<Q3<Q4<Q5<Q1 [27]. - The low - to - medium quantile Vega portfolio can balance upward elasticity and downward drawdown, and has good adaptability in different market styles. In terms of annual performance, its Sharpe ratio ranked first in different years and achieved excess returns during the 2022 Q4 fixed - income + product redemption wave and the 2024 convertible bond credit event [30]. 2.4 The Unique Alpha of the Low - to - Medium Quantile Vega Portfolio - Since 2021, the Q2 and Q3 quantile Vega portfolios have obtained Alpha compared to the double - low strategy under the same conditions, especially showing relative advantages in a market environment with declining risk appetite and rising volatility. However, the low - to - medium quantile Vega portfolio's significant drawdowns were mostly due to credit events [32]. 2.5 The Cost - Effectiveness of the Current Low - to - Medium Vega Strategy - Currently, convertible bonds are not cheap, and it is difficult for the stock market to rise significantly. The market may enter a shock period. In this environment, the low - to - medium Vega factor strategy has high cost - effectiveness, and the Q2 quantile portfolio is expected to be more cost - effective [34].

Group 1 - The report highlights the price increase of chromium oxide green and the frequent safety issues in the chemical industry, emphasizing the need to focus on capacity reduction in the sector [3][4][6] - The chromium salt industry is expected to experience significant opportunities as demand shifts from traditional low-growth applications to high-growth sectors such as AI data centers and aerospace [4][5] - The supply-demand tension in the phosphate rock market is anticipated to continue, with existing production capacity facing delays and increasing demand from lithium iron phosphate batteries [4][5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials in the chemical industry, which is expected to see rapid growth driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs [33][38] - Key sectors to focus on include electronic information materials, aerospace materials, and renewable energy materials, with specific companies highlighted for their strong positions in these areas [34][36][38] - The hydrogen energy sector is projected to lead global consumption in 2024, with significant advancements in renewable energy hydrogen production [39] Group 3 - The report on Li Auto indicates a slight increase in gross margin and a year-on-year profit growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 25.93 billion yuan [46][47] - The company has launched new models equipped with advanced driving assistance systems, enhancing its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [49][50] - Li Auto's delivery volume is expected to grow in Q2 2025, with projected revenue between 32.5 billion and 33.8 billion yuan [50] Group 4 - The aluminum industry is experiencing a favorable macro environment, with potential easing of tariff pressures and improved inventory management during the off-season [54][56] - The report notes stable operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a slight increase in production costs due to rising alumina prices [56][57] - Demand for aluminum in various sectors, including construction and automotive, is expected to remain stable, although some segments may face seasonal slowdowns [56][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the HNB industry, indicating a positive outlook based on favorable market conditions and consumer preferences [1][45]. Core Insights - The Japanese HNB market is one of the largest globally, reaching a scale of 10 billion USD in 2023, driven by stable policies and changing consumer habits [6][9]. - The market exhibits an oligopolistic structure dominated by key players such as PMI, JT, and BAT, with a CR2 exceeding 70% [30][29]. - Continuous product iteration among major manufacturers is expected to sustain growth, with new product launches anticipated to create additional market opportunities [38][34]. Summary by Sections Japanese HNB Market Overview - The Japanese HNB market is the largest globally, with a market size of 10 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of over 10% from 2020 to 2023 [9][6]. - A stable policy environment supports HNB product growth, with favorable regulations and lower tax rates compared to traditional cigarettes [13][14]. - HNB penetration rates have surpassed 40% overall and 50% in major cities by 2024, indicating significant growth potential [22][27]. Market Structure - The Japanese HNB market is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with PMI holding over 60% market share, followed by JT and BAT [30][34]. - Each major player has core products that drive growth through continuous innovation, with differences in heating technology and user experience [34][38]. - A new product iteration cycle is expected in 2025, with BAT's Glo Hilo set to launch, potentially enhancing market penetration and competitive positioning [38][39]. Consumer Preferences and Trends - Japanese consumers show a strong preference for innovative and healthier smoking alternatives, which aligns with the characteristics of HNB products [17][19]. - The demand for low-tar and low-nicotine products is increasing, and HNB products are gaining acceptance in various social settings [17][18]. - The trend towards stylish and technologically advanced products is driving the growth of HNB consumption among urban consumers [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a harvest period in 2025 due to the ramp-up of passenger car seat production and the integration of Grammer [2][5] - Positive changes observed in 2024 include the first annual breakeven for passenger car seats, asset divestiture from Grammer, and the growth of new products like hidden electric air vents and car refrigerators [5][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the automotive headrest market and is expanding into complete seat assemblies, creating a second growth avenue [15] - The company has evolved from a domestic headrest leader to a global interior supplier, with significant growth opportunities in the seat business [15][19] Passenger Car Seats - The passenger car seat market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, driven by enhanced consumer demand and increased seat functionality [6][44] - The company has a robust order book with over 20 ongoing projects, expecting revenues from passenger car seats to reach 5-7 billion yuan in 2025 [6][9] Grammer Integration - The integration of Grammer has seen operational improvements in Europe and Asia, while the Americas have faced losses [6][22] - The company plans to divest the loss-making TMD assets in North America, which is expected to improve overall financial performance [6][22] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 25.99 billion yuan in 2025 to 32.11 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 17% [8] - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly, reaching 631 million yuan in 2025 and 1.45 billion yuan by 2027 [8] Market Trends - The average value of passenger car seats is anticipated to rise to 5,000 yuan by 2025, with the domestic market size projected to reach 139.1 billion yuan [44] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced seat features and lightweight materials [43][44]

2025 年 06 月 03 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周北交所流动性收缩，世昌股份/志高机械上 会通过 ——北交所行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | 8.96% | 3.12% | 79.99% | | 沪深 | 300 | 1.73% | -3.22% | 6.27% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 阶段性回调，下 周世昌股份/志高机械上会、交大铁发申购（推荐） *中小盘*罗琨》——2025-05-26 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 继续领涨，交投 活跃度持续上升，天工股份正式上市（推荐）*中 小盘*罗琨》——2025-05-19 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 实现领涨、交投 活跃度明显提升，下周天工股份上市（推荐 ...