Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for leading companies in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The beverage industry is expected to continue experiencing intense competition, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage likely to benefit from increased market share [3]. - Nongfu Spring is projected to see steady growth in its bottled water business and sustained high growth in its beverage products, supported by strong brand, channel, and product capabilities [1]. - China Resources Beverage, as a leader in the purified water sector, is focusing on channel expansion and product development, which is expected to enhance its market share and profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Nongfu Spring - The company is expected to recover its bottled water market share and potentially exceed previous highs due to its strong brand and product capabilities [1]. - The beverage segment is diversified with high-growth products like sugar-free tea "Oriental Leaf" and functional drinks "Scream" and "Power Emperor Vitamin Water," which align with health trends [1]. - As of July 21, 2025, the company's PE(TTM) is 38.01X, with a five-year average of 54.25X, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1]. China Resources Beverage - The company is solidifying its position in the purified water market while expanding into new channels such as dining and family segments [2]. - The introduction of sub-brands focusing on natural and mineral water is expected to drive market share recovery [2]. - The company's PE(TTM) is 17.97X, suggesting a significant valuation gap compared to Nongfu Spring, with potential for both performance and valuation improvement [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage due to their competitive advantages and growth potential [3]. - Additionally, it suggests monitoring Eastroc Beverage for its strong growth attributes and Uni-President China for its high dividend yield [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The current state of China's raw milk and beef industries is at the bottom of the cycle, with the dairy industry gradually clearing capacity towards a balance in supply and demand [1] - The beef industry has seen a price recovery, with live cattle prices rebounding since February 2025, driven by reduced imports and a tightening supply [2] - The report indicates that the dairy cycle's darkest moment is expected to end within 1.5 years, with signs of marginal improvement in the first half of 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Raw Milk Industry - As of July 10, 2024, the price of fresh milk is 3.04 CNY/kg, down 6.17% year-on-year, with over 90% of the dairy industry experiencing losses [1] - The China Dairy Association forecasts a 4.5% year-on-year decrease in dairy cow inventory for 2024, with further price declines expected in 2025 [1] - There are indications of a narrowing decline in raw milk prices in the first half of 2025, with a significant reduction in milk powder spray volume [1] Beef Industry - The beef industry is entering a replenishment phase, with a 2.9% growth in cattle inventory in 2023, but a projected 4.4% decline in 2024 [2] - Live cattle prices and market averages have increased by 8.3% and 7.4% respectively since February 2025 [2] - The industry is experiencing a culling cycle for breeding cows, leading to a decrease in the number of calves born [2] Company Performance YouRan Agriculture - In 2024, YouRan achieved revenue of 20.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with fresh milk production rising by 24.1% to 3.747 million tons [3] - Despite a decrease in average selling price of fresh milk to 4.1 CNY/kg, the company managed to improve its gross margin [3] - The company reported a loss of 690 million CNY for the year due to declining raw milk and beef prices [3] Modern Farming - Modern Farming's revenue decreased by 1.5% year-on-year to 13.25 billion CNY, with fresh milk production increasing by 13.6% [4] - The average selling price of fresh milk fell by 10.3% to 3.6 CNY/kg, resulting in a loss of 1.47 billion CNY for the year [4] - Future price increases in milk and beef are expected to positively impact the company's core business [4] China Shengmu - China Shengmu reported a revenue decline of 7.6% to 3.13 billion CNY in 2024, with fresh milk sales price down by 6.1% [7] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising beef prices due to its dual focus on dairy and beef production [7] Tianrun Dairy - Tianrun's revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.8 billion CNY, a 3.3% increase, but net profit is expected to drop by 69.3% due to losses from cattle disposal [8] - The company is expected to improve its operations as it reduces cattle disposals in subsequent quarters [8]

Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Historical Comparison - The pre-disclosure phase of mid-year reports focuses on profitability characteristics, with a low disclosure rate and potential for significant subsequent revisions. The estimated earnings growth for the entire A-share non-financial sector in 2025 is 13.2%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 8.9 percentage points [1][16] - The proportion of companies experiencing earnings growth is 62.4%, exceeding the 50% threshold, while the proportion of companies with improved growth rates is 50.3%, slightly above the central tendency [1][16] - Compared to Wind's consensus expectations, 47.8% of companies in the entire A-share non-financial sector have exceeded these expectations, with only 2.4% of companies seeing their stock prices open more than 5% higher [1][16] Group 2: High Prosperity Industries and Earnings Guidance - High-prosperity industries identified for the 2025 mid-year reports include securities, precious metals, specialized equipment, rail transit equipment, power grid equipment, aquaculture, education, components, gaming, and communication equipment [3][29] - In the securities industry, companies have reported revenue growth across various business lines, including secondary market investments, brokerage services, and investment banking [32][34] - The precious metals industry is driven by a consensus on rising gold prices, which is expected to positively impact earnings [35] - The specialized equipment sector has noted business expansion and project delivery improvements, although non-recurring impacts such as asset restructuring and investment income have also been mentioned [3][29] - The rail transit equipment sector has seen improvements in the production and sales of railway vehicles and related business deliveries [3][29] - The power grid equipment sector's growth is driven by new power systems, smart grids, and overseas orders [3][29] - In aquaculture, increased pig slaughtering and reduced breeding costs are key factors for performance improvement, with companies expanding into retail channels [3][29] - The education sector has shown performance improvements across various educational models, including personalized education and AI education [3][29] - The components sector's growth is significantly driven by structural demand related to AI, leading to improved gross margins [3][29] - The gaming industry shows a divergence among companies, with some benefiting from overseas business and new game launches, while others focus on cost control and non-recurring investment income [4][29] - The communication equipment sector has experienced a notable increase in demand for high-end optical modules due to the construction of computing infrastructure [4][29]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights that the market is expected to reach a new level, with a focus on the performance of various sectors and companies [2] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with indices rebounding after a pullback, indicating a return of positive sentiment [3] - The report notes that global equity markets have mostly risen, with Asian markets leading the gains [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a cyclical bottom, with the dairy industry moving towards supply-demand balance and beef prices recovering [4] - In the retail sector, companies are actively positioning themselves for growth, with a focus on new consumption trends and improving performance in the restaurant and tourism industries [6] - The C-REITs market is witnessing strong interest, particularly in data center REITs, with a positive outlook for the low-interest environment and macroeconomic recovery [8] Group 3: Company Performance - Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) is projected to achieve a revenue of 4.96 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.9%, driven by significant increases in etching equipment sales [10] - The company has increased its R&D investment to approximately 1.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a growth of about 53.7%, which is significantly higher than the average R&D investment level of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [11] - Zhongwei Company aims to cover over 60% of semiconductor front-end equipment categories through both acquisitions and internal R&D, positioning itself as a leading supplier in the etching, film deposition, and measurement sectors [12][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The retail sector shows a stable overall performance in 2025, with some companies demonstrating positive trends. The second quarter earnings forecasts are being disclosed, and companies are actively positioning themselves for growth [8] - The new consumption landscape remains vibrant, with key players such as Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, and others expected to perform well [8] - Retail transformation continues, with traditional retailers like Yonghui Supermarket and others making significant adjustments to their operations [8] Summary by Sections Retail Sector - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is in line with expectations. Excluding petroleum and automotive factors, the retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 35,702 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [1] - Various categories showed different growth rates, with essential goods like food and beverages increasing by 8.7%, while optional categories like furniture and automobiles experienced a slowdown [1] Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector is expected to see a decline in visitor numbers and revenue growth in Q2 due to various factors, but companies are improving their capabilities through IP, products, and marketing [2] - The hotel sector is showing signs of improvement, with Jin Jiang Hotels forecasting a net profit of 3.2-3.6 billion yuan for Q2, despite a year-on-year decline of 50.7%-44.7% [2] Food and Beverage - Some restaurant brands have shown positive performance in June, with Guoquan expecting a core operating profit of 1.8-2.1 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44%-68% [3] - The tea beverage sector is anticipated to benefit in Q3, maintaining relatively high growth rates [3] Retail Transformation - Traditional retail companies are undergoing significant transformations, with Yonghui Supermarket adjusting 124 stores and closing 227 in the first half of 2025 [4] - Specialized chains like mother and baby stores and Miniso are expected to see improved growth rates in Q2 [4] Cross-Border Trade - The small commodity city in Yiwu has seen strong demand in the潮玩 and skincare sectors, with bidding results exceeding expectations [7] - The overall growth rate of the cross-border sector may experience a slight decline due to varying tariff impacts [7] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Yonghui Supermarket, Chongqing Department Store, and others in the retail transformation space [8] - In the tourism sector, companies like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Songcheng Performance are expected to perform well [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the C-REITs market, suggesting that the low interest rate environment and ongoing macroeconomic recovery will continue to support the REITs market in 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The C-REITs market is experiencing a high level of interest, particularly with the successful subscription of the first batch of data center REITs [5]. - The C-REITs total market capitalization is approximately 204.59 billion, with an average market cap of about 3 billion per REIT [12]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the industrial park and consumer infrastructure REITs, while energy and transportation infrastructure REITs have seen a pullback [12]. Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.06% this week, while the closing index decreased by 0.09%, settling at 875.8 points [10]. - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has risen by 14.12%, ranking third among various indices [2][10]. REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs has shown high volatility, with 40 REITs rising and 28 falling this week, averaging a weekly increase of 0.06% [12]. - The best-performing sectors this week were industrial parks and consumer infrastructure, with respective increases of 0.46% and 0.45% [12]. REITs Valuation Performance - The report notes a continued divergence in the internal rate of return (IRR) among listed REITs, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT (11.1%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (10.5%), and Zhongjin Anhui Transportation Control REIT (8.3%) [5]. - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for listed REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.9, with the highest being Zhongjin Xiamen Anju REIT at 1.9 [5].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 21 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 市场有望再上一个台阶 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—7 月政治局会议前瞻——20250720 【金融工程】市场有望再上一个台阶——20250720 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值分数略微下降——20250719 【固定收益】如何看待商品价格大涨对债市冲击？——20250720 【固定收益】税期过后资金回落——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250719 【固定收益】今年农商缘何配债缓慢——几个推测——20250719 【固定收益】与周期和创新共舞——低利率时代资管机构之美国公募篇 ——20250718 【轻工制造】日本谷子经济复盘：以日为鉴，成功密码是什么？—— 20250720 【银行】本周聚焦—25Q2 存贷款增长有哪些特征？——20250720 【食品饮料】技源集团：HMB 全球龙头， 营养健康产业链延伸——保健 品行业专题三——20250718 【医药&美妆】时代天使（06699.HK）-国产隐形正畸龙头，出海打开成 长天花板——20250719 【建材】苏博特（603916.SH）-混 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to enhance the performance of the CSI 500 index by leveraging quantitative strategies to generate excess returns over the benchmark[2][59] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed based on a strategy model that selects stocks with specific characteristics and allocates weights accordingly. The detailed holdings include stocks like Guolian Minsheng (4.40%), Changjiang Securities (3.92%), and others, with varying weights[61][64] **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated consistent excess returns over the benchmark since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -4.99%[59][63] - **Model Name**: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio, this model seeks to outperform the CSI 300 index by employing quantitative strategies[2][65] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed using a strategy model, with holdings such as COSCO Shipping (7.92%), China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (6.51%), and others, each assigned specific weights[68] **Model Evaluation**: The model has achieved an excess return of 33.69% relative to the CSI 300 index since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[65][68] Model Backtesting Results - **CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly return of 1.24%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.04%; cumulative excess return since 2020 is 48.71%; maximum drawdown is -4.99%[59][63] - **CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly return of 2.29%, outperforming the benchmark by 1.20%; cumulative excess return since 2020 is 33.69%; maximum drawdown is -5.86%[65][68] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns, capturing the systematic risk exposure of the stock[2][70] **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the slope of the regression line between the stock's returns and the market's returns over a specific period. The formula is: $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the stock return, $R_m$ is the market return, Cov is the covariance, and Var is the variance[70] **Factor Evaluation**: High Beta stocks have shown superior performance recently, while low Beta stocks underperformed[2][71] - **Factor Name**: Liquidity Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the ease of trading a stock without significantly impacting its price[70] **Factor Construction Process**: Typically measured using metrics like turnover rate or bid-ask spread. The specific formula or metric used in this report is not detailed[70] **Factor Evaluation**: Liquidity factor exhibited significant negative excess returns during the week, indicating underperformance of highly liquid stocks[71] - **Factor Name**: Non-linear Size Factor (NLSIZE) **Factor Construction Idea**: Accounts for the non-linear relationship between stock size and returns, complementing the traditional size factor[70] **Factor Construction Process**: Constructed by introducing higher-order terms of size (e.g., squared or cubed size) into the regression model. The exact formula is not provided in the report[70] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor showed significant negative excess returns during the week, indicating underperformance of stocks with extreme size characteristics[71] Factor Backtesting Results - **Beta Factor**: Demonstrated high positive excess returns during the week, outperforming other style factors[71][75] - **Liquidity Factor**: Showed significant negative excess returns, underperforming during the week[71][75] - **Non-linear Size Factor (NLSIZE)**: Also exhibited significant negative excess returns, indicating poor performance[71][75]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking sector Core Insights - The growth of domestic RMB loans reached 268.6 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.10%, indicating a downward shift in the loan growth rate since 2024 [1] - The total domestic RMB deposit balance was 320.2 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.30%, showing an acceleration in deposit growth due to a low base effect from the previous year [3] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds reached 45.87 billion yuan in Q2, with a total issuance of 1.8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is expected to gradually reduce the negative impact on credit growth [1][3] Summary by Sections Loan Growth - In Q1 2025, new loans added amounted to 9.7 trillion yuan, while Q2 saw a decrease to 3.1 trillion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in medium to long-term loans for enterprises [1] - Short-term loans and bill financing for enterprises decreased by 129 billion yuan, with bill financing down by 660.2 billion yuan as banks shifted focus to higher-yielding loans and bonds [1] Deposit Growth - Q1 2025 saw an increase of 13.0 trillion yuan in deposits, while Q2 added 5.0 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from non-bank deposits, household deposits, and government deposits [3] - The structure of deposits is shifting from on-balance-sheet to off-balance-sheet, driven by declining deposit rates [3] Sector Outlook - Short-term impacts from tariff policies may affect exports, but long-term expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption are expected to support economic growth [4] - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from these policies, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the media sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The media sector experienced a decline of 1.58% during the week of July 14-18, 2025, with a focus on investment opportunities in companies with favorable mid-year report expectations [1][11]. - The report highlights optimism for the gaming sector and AI applications, particularly in AI companionship, education, and toys, as well as the monetization of intellectual property (IP) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking new AI applications and mature applications for investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The media sector's performance was negative, with a decline of 1.58%, while other sectors like telecommunications and pharmaceuticals showed positive growth [11]. - The top five gainers in the media sector included Century Tianhong (17.1%), Focus Technology (13.8%), and Youzu Network (11.9%) [14]. 2. Sub-sector Insights - **Gaming**: Key companies to watch include ST Huatuo, Jibite, and Giant Network, with additional attention on Perfect World and Iceberg Network [2][19]. - **AI**: Focus on companies like Dou Shen Education, Sheng Tian Network, and Shanghai Film, among others [2][19]. - **Education**: Companies such as Xueda Education and Fenbi are highlighted for their growth potential [2][19]. 3. Key Events Recap - OpenAI launched the "ChatGPT Agent," marking a significant advancement in automated AI agents capable of performing complex tasks [21]. - Chinese models dominated the global open-source model rankings, with Kimi K2 leading [21]. - Grok introduced an interactive digital companion feature, enhancing user engagement with AI [21]. 4. Sub-sector Data Tracking - The report notes the popularity of upcoming games and highlights the performance of key titles in the gaming market [22]. - The domestic film market's box office for the week was approximately 631 million yuan, with "Jurassic World: Rebirth" leading the rankings [25]. - The report also tracks viewership data for popular series and variety shows, indicating trends in audience preferences [26][27].