Inflation Data - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May, while the core CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3%, exceeding the previous value of 0.1% and the 12-month average of 0.2%[2] - Core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, matching the 12-month average but lower than the expected 0.3%[2] Tariff Impact - The report indicates that tariffs are beginning to affect goods inflation, while the transmission to services inflation remains insignificant[2] - The energy component saw a month-on-month increase from -1.0% to 0.9%, primarily due to a significant rise in gasoline prices[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices fell by 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.2%[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.48%, and the dollar index rose by 0.5% to 98.6[3] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have slightly decreased, with the probability of a September cut dropping from 65% to 58%[3] - The likelihood of two rate cuts within the year has decreased from approximately 93% to 76%[3] Future Outlook - The report warns of ongoing inflationary pressures in the US, suggesting that expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts should be tempered[4] - Trade negotiations are critical, with the tariff exemption period ending soon, and the market anticipates low chances of reaching agreements with most countries[4]

- The long-term returns of small-cap stocks primarily come from valuation improvements rather than dividends, buybacks, or earnings, indicating a persistent pricing error in the market that quantitative strategies can systematically exploit[1][7] - Small-cap indices exhibit a right-skewed excess return distribution, with a higher probability of extreme positive returns compared to large-cap indices, reflecting higher elasticity and stronger performance during uptrends[15][16] - During credit expansion phases, small-cap indices tend to perform better due to higher elasticity, as seen in the current economic environment characterized by loose monetary policy and credit recovery[19][22] - The systemic crash risk for small-cap stocks is currently low, as indicated by factor timing metrics such as factor momentum, factor dispersion, and factor crowding, which are not at extreme levels[20][24] - Small-cap stocks have long-term alpha potential, with quantitative strategies in small-cap index components showing higher excess return capabilities compared to mid-cap and large-cap indices[27][30][31] Quantitative Models and Factors - **GK Model**: Used to decompose historical returns of the CSI All Share Index and small-cap indices, showing that small-cap returns are driven mainly by valuation increases[7] - **Factor Timing Metrics**: Include factor momentum, factor dispersion, and factor crowding, used to assess the timing of factor investments and systemic risk[20][23] Backtesting Results - **Small-cap funds**: From 2016 to 2025, small-cap funds achieved an average cumulative return of 71.62%, significantly outperforming the CSI 1000 Total Return Index, which had a cumulative return of -34.80%[32][33][34] - **E Fund Yibai Intelligent Quantitative Strategy A**: Demonstrated a stable long-term excess return since early 2024, with an annualized return of 38.50% compared to the Wind All A Equal Weight Index's 14.45%[39][40][42] - **T-M Model Analysis**: The fund showed a stock selection ability of 0.04% and a market timing ability of 0.91, indicating strong stock-picking skills[65][66][67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The real estate development investment amount has seen a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest drop in this cycle [11][12] - New housing sales have also decreased, with a sales amount decline of 5.5% and a sales area decline of 3.5% in the same period, indicating a worsening trend [3][37] - The report anticipates that policy measures will continue to support the real estate market, aiming to stabilize the sector [11][12] Summary by Sections Investment - In the first half of 2025, the total real estate development investment reached 46,658 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, with residential, office, and commercial property investments decreasing by 10.4%, 16.8%, and 8.4% respectively [2][21] New Construction - The cumulative new construction area in the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0% year-on-year, with residential, office, and commercial areas down by 19.6%, 21.0%, and 17.7% respectively [26][21] Completion - The total completed area in the first half of 2025 was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.8% year-on-year, with residential, office, and commercial completions showing declines of 15.5%, 0.2%, and 20.7% respectively [28][21] Sales - The total sales amount for commercial housing in the first half of 2025 was 44,241 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, while the sales area decreased by 3.5% [3][37] Funding - The total funds available to real estate companies in the first half of 2025 amounted to 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with significant declines in self-raised funds, deposits, and prepayments [52][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5][7] Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrated strong sales growth in Q2 2025, with a notable performance across its multi-brand portfolio, achieving overall sales growth in the first half of 2025 [1][4] - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 11% for 2025, with a net profit growth of 13% compared to 2024, excluding one-time gains [4] Summary by Sections Anta Brand - In Q2 2025, Anta brand sales grew by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, a slowdown compared to the high single-digit growth in Q1 2025. This is attributed to store optimization efforts and cautious discounting during the "618 Shopping Festival" [2] - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta brand is expected to remain around 5, indicating a healthy operational level [2] - For H2 2025, sales growth is expected to accelerate as the brand continues to optimize product structure and channel efficiency [2] Fila Brand - Fila brand achieved a mid-single-digit year-on-year sales growth in Q2 2025, with strong performance expected in its core products and e-commerce channels [3] - The brand's inventory turnover ratio is also projected to maintain around 5, with stable discounts in physical stores [3] - For H2 2025, Fila is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, supported by an expanded product range [3] Other Brands - Other brands within the Anta portfolio saw a remarkable sales growth of 50% to 55% in Q2 2025, driven by improved product offerings and store operations [4] - The acquisition of Maia Active in 2023 is expected to contribute positively to growth, alongside the recent acquisition of outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin [4] - Overall, the company is projected to maintain robust revenue growth in 2025, particularly in its outdoor brands [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for Anta Sports to be 135.12 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 17 times [5][6] - Revenue is expected to grow from 62.36 billion yuan in 2023 to 78.70 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [6][13]

Group 1: Small-cap Fund Investment Opportunities - The long-term returns of small-cap stocks primarily stem from valuation improvements rather than dividends or buybacks, indicating a persistent pricing error in the market that provides alpha opportunities [8] - Small-cap stocks exhibit a longer right tail in excess return distribution compared to large-cap stocks, suggesting higher potential for extreme positive returns during bullish market cycles [8] - In a credit expansion phase, small-cap stocks tend to perform better due to a favorable monetary environment and recovering credit conditions [8] Group 2: Economic Insights - The second quarter GDP growth rate was reported at 5.2%, indicating resilience in the economy, particularly in industrial output, despite a decline in fixed asset investment growth [13] - Economic data for June showed a mixed trend, with external demand and production rebounding while consumption and investment weakened [9] - The overall economic outlook suggests a potential GDP growth rate of around 5% for the year, with ongoing challenges in domestic demand and export pressures [9] Group 3: Industry Performance - The coal industry is experiencing a decline in imports while thermal power generation continues to grow, leading to price increases as demand rises [22] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery with potential upward price adjustments due to easing export policies and a focus on quality resource companies [23][24] - The textile and apparel sector, particularly companies like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees, is demonstrating strong sales growth, supported by effective multi-brand strategies [28][38]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Antimony prices have stabilized after a significant decline, indicating a potential bottoming out [2][13] - The export policy is showing signs of marginal easing, which may lead to an upward convergence of domestic antimony prices [3][42] - The supply-demand fundamentals for the antimony industry are strong, with expectations for long-term high prices due to geopolitical factors and administrative controls [3][42] Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - As of July 11, antimony concentrate prices were 151,500 CNY/ton, down 31% from the April peak, while antimony ingot prices were 178,500 CNY/ton, down 28% [1][10] - The price difference between domestic and international markets has widened to 330,000 CNY/ton due to export controls and supply-demand imbalances [1][10] Demand Analysis - The demand for flame retardants has shown resilience, with prices for flame retardant masterbatches increasing by 90% from January to April, followed by a modest decline of 11% from April to July [2][13] - The photovoltaic glass sector has seen a significant increase in installation volumes, but actual installations have remained flat compared to the previous year due to delays [21][23] Supply Dynamics - Antimony ore imports decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with a significant price increase of 39% month-on-month in May [31] - Domestic production of antimony ingots and sodium antimonate has declined sharply, with a 25% year-on-year drop in June production [31][32] Investment Recommendations - Companies with quality resources in the antimony sector are expected to benefit from the industry's upward trend. Recommended companies include Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Huaxi Nonferrous [4][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing may face pressure in the second half of the year. If there is no additional budget, government bonds will shift from year - on - year increase in the first half to year - on - year decrease in the second half, and non - government bond social financing has been weak due to high real interest rates [2][3][20]. - The low - base effect supports the continued significant rebound of M1 growth rate, and the rebound of social financing growth rate drives the rebound of M2 growth rate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in fiscal deposits [3][4]. - The current stock market rise requires a low - interest - rate environment, and the impact on the bond market from capital flow is limited. The bond market has limited adjustment space, and it is a better allocation opportunity after adjustment. It is expected that bond yields will decline again, and a long - duration position and a dumbbell - shaped allocation are recommended [5][21]. Summary by Related Content Credit Situation - In June, new credit was 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 110 billion yuan. Corporate short - term credit demand increased, while the improvement of household credit demand was still limited. Corporate medium - and long - term loans and short - term loans increased year - on - year, and bill financing decreased year - on - year. Household medium - and long - term and short - term loans also increased year - on - year, but high - frequency data showed weak real - estate sales [1][8]. Social Financing Situation - In June, new social financing was 4.1993 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9008 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. Government bonds were still the main support item. However, if there is no additional budget, subsequent bond supply will decrease year - on - year, and social financing growth rate may decline [2][13]. - In the first half of this year, the increase in social financing mainly came from government bonds. The annual budget increment of government bonds is 13.86 trillion yuan. After deducting the issued part in the first half, the net financing scale in the second half is expected to be about 6.1 trillion yuan, compared with about 8 trillion yuan in the same period last year [3][20]. M1 and M2 Situation - In June, the new - caliber M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, a rebound of 2.3 percentage points from May, mainly due to the low - base effect last year [3][15]. - In June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, a rebound of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The increase in social financing growth rate promoted the rebound of M2 growth rate. With the slowdown of government bond issuance in the second half, fiscal deposits may decrease year - on - year, increasing the capital supply in the market [4][18]. Stock and Bond Market Situation - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly driven by valuation recovery and requires a low - interest - rate environment. The impact of the stock market on the bond market's capital is limited. The bond market has limited adjustment space, and it is expected that bond yields will decline again. A long - duration position and a dumbbell - shaped allocation are recommended, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield expected to fall to 1.4% - 1.5% [5][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 900 million to 1.14 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.57% to 66.66% [1]. - The growth in profit is attributed to several factors, including ongoing investment in high-value AI terminal hardware, improvements in domestic automotive business efficiency, and reduced losses from overseas factories [1]. - The company is evolving into a manufacturing platform for AI terminal hardware, focusing on areas such as imaging display, materials, battery power, thermal management, and premium assembly [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue of 49.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0% [4]. - Expected net profit for 2025 is projected at 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 31.0% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be 0.33 yuan in 2025, with a net asset return rate of 10.1% [5]. Business Expansion - The company is entering the humanoid robot market, with expectations of commercial production by 2025, and a projected global market size of 4.96 billion USD by 2030 [2]. - The AI glasses market is also expanding, with an expected sales volume of 5.5 million units by 2025, a 262% increase from 2024 [2]. - The foldable smartphone segment is projected to see a shipment increase to approximately 10 million units in China by 2025, growing at a rate of 9.1% [3]. - The company is also advancing into the server market, focusing on GPU and AI application cooling products, becoming a core supplier for AMD [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 49.1 billion, 59.1 billion, and 68.3 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 11.0%, 20.5%, and 15.5% [4]. - Net profit estimates for the same years are 2.3 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of 31.0%, 30.9%, and 27.4% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 970 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 9.0% [1] - The increase in profit is attributed to the consolidation of Guangdong Feng Environmental Protection and ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [1] - The company has a strong market presence with significant operational capacity in waste incineration and power generation [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 2.126 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.8% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.61 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.4 [5] Market Position - Guangdong Feng Environmental Protection has signed 35 waste incineration power generation projects with a total processing capacity of 53,000 tons per day, enhancing the company's market share [2] - The company has a total of 36,000 tons per day in hand orders for waste incineration power generation, with 31,000 tons per day already in operation [2] Operational Efficiency - The company has achieved a capacity utilization rate of approximately 115% for its waste incineration power generation projects, despite a 2.2% decrease in waste incineration volume [3] - The company has signed agreements for external heating services for 17 waste incineration projects, with 12 already operational, resulting in a 58.9% year-on-year increase in external heating volume [3] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditures are expected to decline, with fixed asset capital expenditures of approximately 373 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, down by about 100 million yuan year-on-year [4] - The reduction in capital expenditure is anticipated to support an increase in dividend levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown excellent growth in Q2 2025, with a 10% increase in adult apparel sales and a 10% increase in children's apparel sales in offline channels, alongside a 20% growth in e-commerce sales [1][2] - The company is expanding its "super premium" store format rapidly, which is expected to enhance retail efficiency and drive high-quality growth in offline sales [2] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 14% in 2025, with profit margins remaining stable [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company reported a 21% revenue growth in 2023, with projections of 19.6% in 2024 and 14% in 2025 [4] - The expected revenue for 2025 is 11,482 million yuan [4] Profitability - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,312 million yuan, reflecting a 14.2% year-over-year growth [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.63 yuan [4] Financial Ratios - The company is expected to maintain a net profit margin of 11.4% in 2025 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.2 times for 2025 [4] Market Position - The company is positioned as one of the leading players in the sports footwear and apparel industry, with a strong focus on product innovation and brand enhancement [3][4]