1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negotiation of bond extension by Vanke may cause disturbances to the spreads of central and local state - owned real estate enterprises, but the default risk of "true state - owned enterprises" is limited, mainly focusing on valuation fluctuation risks. Private and mixed - ownership enterprise bonds may be more affected, and attention should be paid to Vanke's subsequent extension plan and policy changes [4][17]. - The negotiation of Vanke's bond extension has limited impact on the overall urban investment industry. The core credit support of urban investment has not changed, and short - term confidence remains unshaken. The focus of urban investment is still the central policy orientation and transformation and development after exiting the list [4][21]. 3. Summary by Related Content Reasons for Vanke's Bond Extension Negotiation - Vanke's performance has declined significantly since 2021. In 2024, its non - recurring profit - adjusted net profit attributable to the parent changed from profit to loss, with a loss of 45.394 billion yuan, and in the third - quarter report of 2025, the loss was 26.486 billion yuan. Since 2019, except for 2022, its financing cash flow has been negative, and its financing channels have been restricted in recent years [2][8]. - Due to the downturn in the industry and weak operating performance, market concerns have risen, and Vanke's bond credit spreads have increased significantly since 2023 [2][10]. - Although Shenzhen Metro has provided support to Vanke since 2023, with an actual withdrawal amount of 19.71 billion yuan by the announcement date, Vanke still has a large short - term debt repayment pressure. There were still 5.7 billion yuan of domestic bonds due in 2025, and a large amount of bonds are due in the first half of 2026, so it finally chose to negotiate the extension of public bonds [3][13]. Market Performance after the Announcement - On November 27, many of Vanke's bonds triggered trading halts due to a decline of more than 30%. Some private real estate bonds were affected, and the bond valuations of some central and local state - owned real estate enterprises also increased, but the overall impact was limited. For example, "22 Longhu 02" of private enterprises fell 1.95% to 98.051 yuan, and "21 Jindi 04" of Jindi also weakened. Among state - owned real estate enterprises, the yield adjustment ranges of Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd., Zhuhai Huafa Affordable Housing Construction Holdings Co., Ltd., and Xiamen International Trade Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. on that day were 2.72bp, 1.81bp, and 1.45bp respectively [3][16][17]. Outlook for the Future - For real estate enterprises, the negotiation of Vanke's bond extension may have an impact on the spreads of central and local state - owned real estate, but the default risk of "true state - owned enterprises" is limited, mainly focusing on valuation risks. Private and mixed - ownership enterprise bonds may be more affected, and attention should be paid to Vanke's subsequent extension plan and policy changes [4][17]. - For urban investment, the negotiation of Vanke's bond extension has limited impact on the overall urban investment industry. The core credit support of urban investment has not changed, and short - term confidence remains unshaken. The focus of urban investment is still the central policy orientation and transformation and development after exiting the list [4][21].

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 28 年 月 日 波司登（03998.HK） 中期业绩稳健，期待旺季销售带动 FY2026 亮眼表现 FY2026H1 公司收入同比+1.4%/归母净利润同比+5.3%。1）公司发布 FY2026H1（截 至 2025/9/30 的 6 个月）业绩公告：主营业务收入/归母净利润分别同比增长 1.4%/5.3%至 89.3/11.9 亿元,宣派中期股息每股普通股 6.3 港仙。2）盈利质量方面：FY2026H1 公司毛利 率+0.1pcts 至 50.0%；销售/管理费用率同比分别+1.7pcts/-1.5pcts 至 27.5%/7.2%，归母 净利率同比+0.5pcts 至 13.3%。 分业务：品牌羽绒服同比+8%（主要系波司登主品牌带动增长），OEM 业务同比-12%。 1、品牌羽绒服业务：FY2026H1 收入同比+8%至 65.7 亿元，加盟增速略快于直营，业务毛 利率同比-2.0pcts 至 59.1%（我们判断主要系渠道结构变化影响）。 2、OEM 业务：FY2026H1-12收入%至同比20.4 亿元，销售占比 23%，毛 ...

Group 1: Alibaba-W (09988.HK) - Alibaba reported total revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for FY2026 Q2, a year-on-year increase of 5% [4] - The Chinese e-commerce segment generated 132.6 billion yuan in revenue, up 16% year-on-year, while international commerce revenue reached 34.8 billion yuan, growing 10% [4] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue increased by 34% year-on-year to 39.8 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 3.6 billion yuan, a 35% increase [4][5] - Instant retail revenue surged by 60% year-on-year to 22.9 billion yuan, contributing to improved user engagement and customer management revenue [5] - Management indicated that the Capex target of 380 billion yuan over three years may be revised upwards due to high demand for servers [6] Group 2: Dongyangguang (600673.SH) - Dongyangguang is involved in a 100% equity acquisition of Qinhuai Data, with total investment reaching 11.2 billion yuan, of which Dongyangguang contributed 3 billion yuan [2] - The acquisition aims to transition Dongyangguang from a traditional materials supplier to an integrated digital ecosystem service provider focusing on green electricity and computing power [2] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, projecting revenues of 15.7 billion yuan, 24.5 billion yuan, and 31 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is accelerating its acquisition of Qinhuai Data, with a total investment of 11.2 billion yuan, and has already contributed 3 billion yuan. The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in AI computing infrastructure [1][2]. - The acquisition will allow the company to leverage its clean energy bases to create a synergistic effect with Qinhuai Data's computing facilities, aiming for a strategic transition from a traditional materials supplier to an integrated digital ecosystem service provider [2]. - The company has launched a global first SST (Smart Static Transformer) intelligent direct current power supply system, which boasts a conversion efficiency of 98.5% and a power density of 1MW/㎡, marking a significant step in the AI computing sector [3]. - The company is building a comprehensive technology ecosystem from hardware to computing applications, including partnerships in liquid cooling technology and investments in optical chip companies, indicating a strategic focus on covering the entire value chain of AI computing infrastructure [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.67 billion yuan, 24.5 billion yuan, and 31 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.437 billion yuan, 2.235 billion yuan, and 2.791 billion yuan [5][7]. - The expected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 46.6, 29.9, and 24.0, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's growth potential [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][6]. Core Views - Alibaba's total revenue for FY2026Q2 reached 247.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5%. However, the non-GAAP net profit decreased by 71% to approximately 10.5 billion CNY [1]. - The report highlights the improvement in the user experience (UE) of the instant retail business, which has led to a significant increase in active consumers on the Taobao app and a reduction in losses [2]. - The management anticipates that the current quarter represents a low point for EBITA, with expectations for gradual recovery as investments in instant retail are adjusted and UE improves [2]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth of Alibaba Cloud, with a revenue increase of 34% year-on-year, and the continuous triple-digit growth in AI-related product revenue [2][3]. Financial Summary - For FY2026, the projected revenue is 1,053.7 billion CNY, with a non-GAAP net profit of 97.4 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38% [5][13]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 6% for FY2026 and 9% for FY2027, with a long-term outlook of 11% growth by FY2028 [5][13]. - The adjusted EBITA for FY2026 is expected to be 106.7 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 10% [13]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected EPS of 5.1 CNY for FY2026, increasing to 8.9 CNY by FY2028 [5][13].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Daily Frequency "High/Low Volume" Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: Define "high volume at high price" and "high volume at low price" events using daily frequency data to identify event signals and construct a capital channel strategy [1][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define "low volume" events: - Closing price is in the bottom 10% percentile of the past 120 trading days - Trading volume exceeds the average of the past 120 trading days by 1.5 standard deviations 2. Define "high volume" events: - Closing price is in the top 90% percentile of the past 120 trading days - Trading volume exceeds the average of the past 120 trading days by 1.5 standard deviations [13] 3. Construct a capital channel strategy: - Set up 4 capital channels, each with a holding period of 20 trading days - At the beginning of each week, review the past 5 trading days and identify stocks that triggered high/low volume signals - Equally allocate funds to the identified stocks at the beginning of the week and hold for 20 trading days - Calculate the net value of the capital channel portfolio by summing the net values of the 4 channels [18] - **Model Evaluation**: The daily frequency "high/low volume" signals showed that the average excess return peaked around 20-25 trading days after the signal was triggered, but the returns were volatile and did not provide stable incremental returns [1][13][18] 2. Model Name: High-Frequency "High/Low Volume" Event Cluster - **Model Construction Idea**: Use high-frequency micro-level price and volume data to construct more stable "high/low volume" event clusters, which are less correlated and more effective [2][25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Event Identification**: - Define "high/low price" using minute-level closing price data - Define "high/low volume" using minute-level trading volume data, considering factors such as "who's volume," "direction of volume," and "type of volume" [26][29][32] 2. **Signal Definition**: - Combine "high/low price" and "high/low volume" using two methods: - "Price first, volume second": Identify high/low price points first, then check if volume is high - "Volume first, price second": Identify high volume points first, then check if price is high/low [42][43] 3. **Signal Screening and Synthesis**: - Produce thousands of event signals by combining different identification methods - Evaluate the effectiveness and correlation of each signal - Retain effective and low-correlation signals to form "high volume event cluster" and "low volume event cluster" - Synthesize signals to construct comprehensive "high volume" and "low volume" signals [26][44][45] - **Model Evaluation**: The high-frequency "low volume" comprehensive signal provided stable positive excess returns, while the "high volume" comprehensive signal demonstrated strong negative selection effects [50][57] 3. Model Name: Combined "High/Low Volume" Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine the positive selection effect of the "low volume" signal with the negative selection effect of the "high volume" signal to enhance the performance of the capital channel strategy [3][58] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the "low volume" comprehensive signal to pre-screen the stock pool 2. Exclude stocks that triggered the "high volume" comprehensive signal in the past 5 trading days 3. Construct a capital channel strategy: - Set up 4 capital channels, each with a holding period of 20 trading days - At the beginning of each week, review the past 5 trading days and identify stocks that meet the combined signal criteria - Equally allocate funds to the identified stocks at the beginning of the week and hold for 20 trading days - Calculate the net value of the capital channel portfolio by summing the net values of the 4 channels [58] - **Model Evaluation**: The combination of the two signals improved the performance of the capital channel strategy, enhancing both returns and stability [58][60] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Daily Frequency "High/Low Volume" Signal - **Low Volume Signal**: - Annualized excess return: 7.67% - IR: 2.22 - Maximum drawdown: 4.68% [50][51] - **High Volume Signal**: - Annualized excess return: -10.16% - IR: -0.44 - Maximum drawdown: 8.47% [57] 2. High-Frequency "High/Low Volume" Event Cluster - **Low Volume Comprehensive Signal**: - Annualized excess return: 7.67% - IR: 2.22 - Maximum drawdown: 4.68% [50][51] - **High Volume Comprehensive Signal**: - Annualized excess return: -10.16% - IR: -0.44 - Maximum drawdown: 8.47% [57] 3. Combined "High/Low Volume" Signal - **Combined Signal**: - Annualized excess return: 9.14% - IR: 2.42 - Maximum drawdown: 3.70% [60] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Low Volume Signal - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identify stocks with low prices and high trading volumes as potential candidates for positive returns [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define "low price" as the closing price in the bottom 10% percentile of the past 120 trading days 2. Define "high volume" as trading volume exceeding the average of the past 120 trading days by 1.5 standard deviations 3. Combine the two conditions to identify "low volume" events [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The low volume signal showed positive returns, peaking around 20-25 trading days after the signal was triggered, but the returns were volatile [1][13] 2. Factor Name: High Volume Signal - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identify stocks with high prices and high trading volumes as potential candidates for negative returns [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define "high price" as the closing price in the top 90% percentile of the past 120 trading days 2. Define "high volume" as trading volume exceeding the average of the past 120 trading days by 1.5 standard deviations 3. Combine the two conditions to identify "high volume" events [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The high volume signal showed negative returns, with stocks underperforming after the signal was triggered [15][18] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Low Volume Signal - Annualized excess return: 7.67% - IR: 2.22 - Maximum drawdown: 4.68% [50][51] 2. High Volume Signal - Annualized excess return: -10.16% - IR: -0.44 - Maximum drawdown: 8.47% [57]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) as a leading global AI PCB manufacturer, emphasizing its deep engagement with top GPU and ASIC clients [15][16][18] - The company has achieved significant advancements in HDI technology, being one of the first to mass-produce 6-layer 24-layer HDI products and is actively developing next-generation 10-layer 30-layer HDI technology [16] - Shenghong Technology is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with ongoing projects in Thailand and Vietnam, and is enhancing its collaboration with major clients to align with their R&D and production schedules [17] Group 2: Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for Shenghong Technology is projected to reach 370 billion and 599 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with expected net profits of 120 billion and 197 billion yuan [18] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing value of PCBs in AI servers, which will further strengthen its competitive position in the market [16][18] Group 3: Industry Context - The report notes that the AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments from major players like Google, which has increased its capital expenditure guidance for the year [15] - The demand for advanced PCB technology is rising in line with the growth of AI applications, positioning Shenghong Technology favorably within this expanding market [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the precision forging gear industry, actively expanding into new products and markets, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [2][12]. - The company is transitioning from a single gear business to a more comprehensive assembly business, enhancing its product structure and value [2][35]. - The company is also venturing into the lightweight aluminum components for electric vehicles and the robotics sector, which is expected to create a second growth curve [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of growth, with a rich product matrix including automotive differential gears and components for electric vehicles [12]. - It has a clear shareholding structure and a diversified subsidiary layout, with 10 wholly-owned subsidiaries covering the entire industry chain [21][17]. - The customer base includes major domestic and international OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, with ongoing efforts to expand into overseas and new energy markets [23][25]. 2. Business Expansion - The company is upgrading from individual gear components to complete differential assemblies, which increases the value per vehicle [2][35]. - The assembly business is projected to generate revenue of 492 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.84%, becoming the second-largest revenue source [2][35]. 3. Lightweight and Robotics Initiatives - The company is tapping into the lightweight demand driven by the electric vehicle trend, focusing on key components that meet lightweight and low-noise requirements [2][19]. - It is also entering the robotics sector, establishing a joint venture to develop robotic joint components, which is expected to enhance growth opportunities [2][3]. 4. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 153 million, 204 million, and 252 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -4.3%, 33.5%, and 23.5% [2][3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 2.149 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 6.1% [3][4].

公司 FY2026H1 营收同比下降 1.1%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%，经营 表现稳步改善。公司披露 FY2026H1 中报，公司营收同比下降 1.1%至 389.86 亿港元，与此同时受益于产品结构优化以及公司良好的费用管控， 经营利润率同比提升 0.3pcts 至 17.5%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%至 68.23 亿港元，呈现稳步复苏的态势，综合考虑黄金借贷公允价值变动的影响后， 归母净利润同比增长 0.1%至 25.34 亿港元。公司派发中期股息每股 0.22 港元，派息率 85.7%。 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 周大福（01929.HK） FY2026H1 经营表现稳健，期待下半财年复苏表现 内地：FY2026H1 内地营收下降 2.5%，公司持续优化渠道网络。 FY2026H1 中国内地营收同比下降 2.5%至 321.94 亿港元，其中零售/批 发渠道营收同比+8.1%/-10.2%，门店整合导致批发业务营收下降。 ➢ 渠道端：FY2026H1 线下聚焦单店运营优化门店，电商增速亮眼。 截止期末公司于中国内地拥有 5663 家 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the impact of Sino - US trade frictions this year, China's exports have maintained resilience. From January to October 2025, the US - dollar - denominated export value increased by 5.30% year - on - year, higher than 5.21% in the same period last year. However, the export growth rate may decline slightly next year, with the annual export year - on - year growth rate expected to slow to around 2% and showing a trend of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half [1][3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Export Support Items - **Regional Perspective**: Amid trade frictions, China's export share to the US and Japan has decreased year by year, while the share to ASEAN, India, Russia, Africa, and Latin America has increased. From January to October 2025, exports to the US dragged down the overall export growth rate by 2.02 percentage points, while ASEAN, Africa, and the EU became the main drivers of export growth, with export growth rates of 14%, 26%, and 8% respectively, and export pulling rates of 2.51%, 1.52%, and 1.14% respectively [11]. - **Product Category Perspective**: Capital goods such as mechanical and electrical products, high - tech products, integrated circuits, automobiles (including chassis), ships, and mechanical equipment are the main categories driving export growth. From January to October 2025, exports of ships, integrated circuits, automobiles (including chassis), and liquid crystal flat - panel display modules achieved double - digit high growth. In contrast, exports of mobile phones, labor - intensive goods, and real - estate - related post - cycle goods showed negative growth, indicating a possible change in China's industrial structure [15]. 3.2 Reasons for Export Resilience 3.2.1 Enterprise Outbound Expansion Drives Exports - From January to October 2025, capital goods exports maintained a high growth rate, with ships and general mechanical equipment driving export growth by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively. There is a positive correlation between the year - on - year growth of listed companies' overseas revenues and exports, as well as between China's outward direct investment flow and total export year - on - year growth. From 2015 - 2024, the average annual compound growth rate of exports driven by outward investment was significantly higher than that of overall exports (7.6% vs 5.2%), with an average proportion of 5.7% in overall exports and an average pull of 0.7 percentage points on overall exports. Investment in different countries also corresponds to the growth rate differences of exports of different product types to these countries [2][21][27]. 3.2.2 Re - export Trade Affects Export Country Structure - During the trade friction, the US imposed significantly higher tariffs on China than on ASEAN countries, prompting Chinese enterprises to seek Southeast Asian re - export trade to avoid high tariffs. From 2018 - 2019 and during the current trade friction, China's exports to the US decreased significantly, while exports to ASEAN and US imports from ASEAN increased significantly, indicating that re - export trade may have offset the decline in exports to the US to some extent and supported the overall export growth rate [43]. 3.2.3 Demand Growth in Some Importing Countries Supports High Export Growth - Benefiting from the mild economic recovery in the EU, the EU's import growth rate has rebounded. Since the second half of 2024, driven by interest rate cuts, defense, and infrastructure investment, the EU's GDP growth rate has remained at around 1.5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the industrial production index has been in the positive range since February 2025, driving the EU's import growth rate from - 5% in 2024 to 4% this year. Vietnam's GDP growth rate has continued to rise this year, with the cumulative GDP growth rate in the first three quarters reaching 7.85%. Investment and consumption have also maintained high growth rates, driving China's cumulative exports to Vietnam from January to October to increase by 22.3% year - on - year [47][50]. 3.2.4 Increase in China's Import Share in Africa and Other Regions - From 2019 - 2024, the average annual compound growth rate of Africa's imports was only 5%, but the average annual growth rate of Africa's imports from China reached 10%. China's share in Africa's imports increased from 17.1% in 2019 to 21.6% in 2024, with an average annual increase of 0.9 percentage points. The reasons for the share increase include large - scale infrastructure investment in Africa, high price competitiveness of Chinese export products, zero - tariff policies for 53 African countries, and successful market expansion by Chinese exporters [54]. 3.3 Export Outlook - Although exports have maintained resilience due to multiple factors, the export growth rate may decline slightly next year. The factors supporting export resilience may weaken, and the support for next year's exports may decrease. Using a fitting model to estimate next year's export growth rate, it is expected to slow to around 2% [3][59][62].