Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the copper market is expected to experience a supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing disruptions in mining operations and insufficient capital expenditure (CAPEX) [1][2][3]. - It emphasizes that macroeconomic factors, particularly the interplay between U.S. and China policies, will support a bullish trend in copper prices, with expectations of a price increase driven by demand from sectors like electric grids, new energy vehicles, and AI [3][4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2025 - The copper market faced unexpected supply disruptions in 2025, leading to a confirmed shortage for 2026. Major incidents included mining disruptions at Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, Grasberg, and Quebrada Blanca, collectively reducing production guidance by 490,000 tons [1][13][19]. 2. Outlook for 2026 2.1 Macroeconomic Factors - 2026 is a pivotal year for U.S.-China relations, with expectations of a more stable trade environment and supportive fiscal policies, which are likely to enhance copper price stability and growth [3][23]. 2.2 Supply Side - The report notes that supply constraints will persist in 2026, with CAPEX needing to rise to incentivize new projects. Current CAPEX levels are significantly lower than historical peaks, indicating a cautious approach from mining companies [3][36][37]. 2.3 Demand Side - Demand for copper is projected to grow, particularly from electric grid investments and the burgeoning AI sector. The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% for copper demand from 2025 to 2029 [4][8]. 3. Supply-Demand Gap from 2025 to 2029 - The report forecasts a widening supply-demand gap for copper, with expected shortages of 470,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 244,000 tons by 2029 if production does not ramp up significantly [4][41]. 4. Key Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases and improved earnings [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical role of coal in ensuring power supply stability during the winter months, particularly in the context of increasing electricity demand driven by data centers [2][5]. - It highlights that the peak electricity demand in the U.S. is expected to increase by 166 GW over the next five years, with data centers being a significant contributor to this growth [2]. - The report suggests that coal-fired power generation will be essential in filling the supply gap during winter electricity shortages, reinforcing its importance as a reliable energy source [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Prices - European ARA coal price is at $97.3 per ton, down by $1.44 per ton (-1.46%) from the previous week [1]. - Newcastle coal price is at $111.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. - IPE South African Richards Bay coal price is at $85.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. Electricity Demand - The report notes that coal power will play a crucial role in meeting electricity demand, especially during winter when renewable energy sources may be less reliable [5][6]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance potential, such as Yancoal Energy and Jinneng Holding, which are expected to benefit from the increased demand for coal [5][6]. Key Stocks - The report lists several key stocks with "Buy" ratings, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.46 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.40 [6]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.95 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 14.40 [6]. - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.68 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.00 [6]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in electricity demand, with data centers being a primary driver, and suggests that coal will remain a vital component of the energy mix in the coming years [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of over 10% from 2025 to 2026, driven by improving trends among core customers such as Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas [1][15]. - The company has a solid fundamental base and is positioned to benefit from the recovery of core customer orders, leading to a phase of capacity-driven growth and improved profitability quality [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The company is one of the largest integrated knitwear manufacturers in Asia, with a strong market position and a history of stable growth [14]. - Recent fluctuations in customer orders have been addressed through long-term asset investments and capacity expansion [2]. Customer Trends - Core customers like Nike and Uniqlo are showing positive trends, with Nike's inventory in North America returning to normal levels, which is expected to enhance order volumes [1][15]. - Adidas and Fast Retailing (Uniqlo's parent company) are also performing well, with Adidas showing strong growth across various regions [15][26]. Capacity and Production - The company has consistently invested in capacity expansion, with a projected employee count of 110,000 by mid-2025, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase [2]. - The integrated supply chain is expected to enhance competitive advantages, particularly with over 50% of production capacity located in Vietnam and Cambodia [2]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 316.1 billion, 351.5 billion, and 390.7 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.3%, 11.2%, and 11.1% [4]. - Gross margins are expected to improve gradually, with estimates of 27.4%, 28.2%, and 28.3% for the same years [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company's stock price is currently trading at a PE ratio of 12.4 for 2026, with a target PE of around 15, indicating a potential upside of approximately 20% [5][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation improvement as core customer orders stabilize and profitability quality enhances [5][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the optical module industry, specifically recommending companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [5][13]. Core Views - The optical module industry is entering a high prosperity cycle driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, with supply becoming the core issue. Major manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion in both mainland China and Thailand, with a significant capacity release expected in Q1 2026, leading to a new growth phase for performance [1][3][4][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of the optical module sector and suggests focusing on companies involved in computing power, particularly in optical communication, such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [10][16]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen an increase, with optical communication performing particularly well, as indicated by various indices showing significant growth rates [18][21]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a supply gap in the optical module industry due to rapidly growing computing power demands, with structural shortages in upstream optical chips and slow capacity ramp-up being critical constraints [26][24]. Financial Data and Capacity Expansion - Financial data supports the intensity of capacity expansion, with Zhongji Xuchuang reporting a 1765.7% increase in construction projects compared to the beginning of the year, indicating strong order demand and confidence in long-term industry prosperity [3][24][25]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual process from "capacity release" to "performance realization," with initial challenges in yield improvement and cost control, but expects scale effects to drive steady performance growth as production scales up [9][25].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：茅台定调审时度势，原奶周期拐点可期 投资建议：1、白酒：茅台定调理性、科学应对周期波动，供给改善信号进一步明 确，白酒板块动销磨底、报表出清、预期低位下把握底部机遇，建议配置：1）短 期边际变化弹性标的：泸州老窖、港股珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、水井坊； 2）筹码结构优化：迎驾贡酒、洋河股份、老白干酒等；3）中长期经营质量龙头 标的：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、今世缘等。2、大众品：中国旺 旺收入同比微增，原奶周期拐点可期，优先关注成长股、后续切换复苏：1）高景 气或高成长逻辑：东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、万辰集团、盐津铺子、有友食 品、新乳业、百龙创园等，港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善：百润股份、 青岛啤酒、海天味业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、洽洽食品、仙乐健康、安 井食品、立高食品、好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：茅台定调理性，彰显龙头底色。本周贵州茅台召开 2025 年第一次临时股东 大会，新董事长陈华总携高管团队出席坦诚回应行业发展与茅台未来， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, highlighting their potential for growth and profitability in overseas markets [8][29]. Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing a significant trend towards overseas expansion, driven by urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, as well as the relocation of manufacturing capacity from China [1][11]. - There is a notable increase in overseas engineering demand, with specialized engineering firms expected to benefit significantly from this trend [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with competitive advantages in niche markets, recommending specific firms such as China Chemical, Jinggong Steel Structure, Jianghe Group, China National Materials, and China Steel International [1][11][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several key players in the construction sector, including China Chemical (PE 6.3X), Jinggong Steel Structure (PE 10.7X), Jianghe Group (PE 12X), China National Materials (PE 7.3X), and China Steel International (PE 10X) [1][29]. Overseas Demand Drivers - Three main factors are driving the high demand for overseas construction: 1. Rapid economic growth in emerging regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, leading to increased infrastructure investment [19]. 2. The transfer of excess production capacity from China, particularly in cement and steel, to overseas markets, which is expected to boost regional engineering demand [19]. 3. The collaborative demand for construction services as various industries expand internationally, with a significant number of A-share companies reporting overseas revenue growth [19] [28]. AI and Semiconductor Cleanroom Growth - The report highlights the ongoing surge in global computing power demand driven by AI development, which is expected to lead to substantial growth in the semiconductor cleanroom market [3][26]. - It forecasts that global and Chinese semiconductor cleanroom investments will reach approximately 1680 billion and 504 billion respectively by 2025, representing about 15% of total industry capital expenditure [26]. High Dividend Yield Opportunities - The report identifies several construction companies with robust performance and high dividend yields, suggesting that these firms will attract long-term capital inflows. Key companies include Sichuan Road and Bridge (6.6%), Jianghe Group (6.5%), Jinggong Steel Structure (6.5%), Anhui Construction (5.7%), Tunnel Shares (5.5%), and Sanwei Chemical (6.4%) [7][28][29]. Recommendations for Specific Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends, including: - China Chemical for chemical engineering overseas expansion - Jinggong Steel Structure for steel structure projects - Jianghe Group for high-end curtain wall projects - China National Materials for cement engineering - China Steel International for metallurgy projects - Semiconductor cleanroom leaders such as Yaxin Integration, Shenghui Integration, and Bocheng Co. [1][11][19][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The advancements in AI technology, such as the release of DeepSeekMath-V2 and Google's Gemini 3 Pro, demonstrate that the potential of large models is far from being fully realized. Continuous innovation in algorithms and the scaling law are key drivers in dispelling the notion of an "AI bubble" [18][19]. - Alibaba's recent financial results show strong growth in AI-related products, with a 34% increase in revenue for Alibaba Cloud and a 29% acceleration in external commercialization revenue. The company emphasizes that AI is not a bubble, as the demand for AI solutions is robust and supported by solid return potential [19][20]. Summary by Sections AI Innovations - DeepSeek launched a new mathematical reasoning model, DeepSeekMath-V2, which utilizes a self-verifying training framework and has achieved gold medal levels in competitions [11]. - Google's Gemini 3 Pro highlights the importance of high-quality training data, showcasing the ongoing effectiveness of the scaling law in AI model development [16]. Alibaba's AI Strategy - Alibaba's CEO stated that there is no "AI bubble" in the next three years, supported by strong demand and reasonable return potential. The company is focusing on both AI to B and AI to C strategies [22][23]. - The demand for AI capabilities is increasing across various industries, with Alibaba Cloud's AI-related product revenue growing for nine consecutive quarters [20][21]. Market Dynamics - The global AI server supply chain is experiencing shortages, with a significant expansion cycle required to meet the growing demand. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist for the next two to three years [22][23]. - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in computing power, such as Cambrian, Huagong Information, and others, as potential investment opportunities [4][25].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing Radar Six-Facet Diagram - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates equity market performance through a multi-dimensional perspective, selecting 21 indicators across liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, technical trends, and crowding. These are categorized into four major dimensions: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macroeconomic Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score within the range of [-1,1][1][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model aggregates 21 indicators into four categories, each representing a specific market dimension - The composite score is calculated as a weighted average of these dimensions, normalized to fall between [-1,1] - Detailed construction methods for individual indicators are referenced in the report "Timing Radar Six-Facet Diagram: A Multi-Dimensional Timing Framework"[6][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive and systematic framework for market timing, integrating multiple dimensions of market dynamics[1][6] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing Radar Six-Facet Diagram - **Liquidity Score**: 0.25 (Neutral to slightly positive signal)[8] - **Economic Fundamentals Score**: -0.25 (Neutral to slightly negative signal)[8] - **Valuation Score**: -0.33 (Neutral to slightly negative signal)[8] - **Capital Flows Score**: 0.00 (Neutral signal)[8] - **Technical Trends Score**: 0.00 (Neutral signal)[8] - **Crowding Score**: 0.50 (Neutral to slightly positive signal)[8] - **Overall Composite Score**: 0.02 (Neutral signal, down from 0.04 last week)[6][8] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Liquidity Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Liquidity factors assess monetary and credit conditions, capturing signals from central bank policies and market interest rates[11][13][16][19] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Monetary Direction Factor**: Measures the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over 90 days. Formula: If >0, monetary policy is deemed expansionary; if <0, contractionary[11] - **Monetary Strength Factor**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept, calculated as: $ \text{Deviation} = \frac{\text{DR007}}{\text{7-Year Reverse Repo Rate}} - 1 $ Smoothed and z-scored to form the factor. Thresholds: <-1.5 SD (expansionary, score=1), >1.5 SD (contractionary, score=-1)[13] - **Credit Direction Factor**: Uses 12-month growth in medium-to-long-term loans. If growth is higher than three months ago, score=1; otherwise, score=-1[16] - **Credit Strength Factor**: Measures deviation of new RMB loans from expectations: $ \text{Credit Strength Factor} = \frac{\text{New Loans} - \text{Median Expectation}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Expectation}} $ Thresholds: >1.5 SD (positive, score=1), <-1.5 SD (negative, score=-1)[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors effectively capture liquidity conditions and their implications for market performance[11][13][16][19] 2. Factor Name: Economic Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Economic factors reflect growth and inflation dynamics, using PMI and inflation data to assess economic trends and surprises[22][25][27][28] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Growth Direction Factor**: Based on PMI data (manufacturing and non-manufacturing), calculated as: $ \text{Growth Direction Factor} = \text{PMI 12-Month Average} \to \text{YoY Change} $ If higher than three months ago, score=1; otherwise, score=-1[22] - **Growth Strength Factor**: Measures PMI surprises: $ \text{Growth Strength Factor} = \frac{\text{PMI} - \text{Median Expectation}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Expectation}} $ Thresholds: >1.5 SD (positive, score=1), <-1.5 SD (negative, score=-1)[25] - **Inflation Direction Factor**: Combines CPI and PPI data: $ \text{Inflation Direction Factor} = 0.5 \times \text{Smoothed CPI YoY} + 0.5 \times \text{Raw PPI YoY} $ If lower than three months ago, score=1; otherwise, score=-1[27] - **Inflation Strength Factor**: Measures CPI and PPI surprises: $ \text{Inflation Strength Factor} = \text{Mean of CPI and PPI Surprises} $ Thresholds: <-1.5 SD (positive, score=1), >1.5 SD (negative, score=-1)[28] - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors provide a robust framework for assessing economic conditions and their market implications[22][25][27][28] 3. Factor Name: Valuation Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Valuation factors assess equity cost-effectiveness using metrics like Shiller ERP, PB, and AIAE[32][35][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Shiller ERP**: $ \text{Shiller ERP} = \frac{1}{\text{Shiller PE}} - \text{10-Year Treasury Yield} $ Z-scored over six years to derive the factor score[32] - **PB**: $ \text{PB Factor} = \text{PB} \times (-1) $ Z-scored over six years, with 1.5 SD truncation, normalized to ±1[35] - **AIAE**: $ \text{AIAE} = \frac{\text{Total Market Cap of CSI All-Share}}{\text{Total Market Cap + Total Debt}} $ Multiplied by -1 and z-scored over six years to derive the factor score[38] - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors effectively capture valuation dynamics and investor sentiment[32][35][38] 4. Factor Name: Crowding Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Crowding factors measure market sentiment and overreaction using derivatives and convertible bond pricing[59][65][67] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Option Implied Basis**: Derived from put-call parity, reflecting market sentiment. Thresholds: If 50ETF 5-day return <0 and percentile <30%, score=1; if return >0 and percentile >70%, score=-1[59] - **Option VIX**: Measures implied volatility. Thresholds: If 50ETF 5-day return <0 and percentile >70%, score=1; if return >0 and percentile >70%, score=-1[60] - **Option SKEW**: Reflects skewness expectations. Thresholds: If 50ETF 5-day return <0 and percentile >70%, score=1; if return >0 and percentile <30%, score=-1[65] - **Convertible Bond Mispricing**: $ \text{Mispricing} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Price}}{\text{Model Price}} - 1 $ Multiplied by -1 and z-scored over three years to derive the factor score[67] - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential reversals[59][65][67] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Liquidity Factors - **Monetary Direction Factor**: Score = 1 (Positive signal)[11] - **Monetary Strength Factor**: Score = 0 (Neutral signal)[13] - **Credit Direction Factor**: Score = 1 (Positive signal)[16] - **Credit Strength Factor**: Score = -1 (Negative signal)[19] 2. Economic Factors - **Growth Direction Factor**: Score = 1 (Positive signal)[22][24] - **Growth Strength Factor**: Score = 0 (Neutral signal)[25] - **Inflation Direction Factor**: Score = -1 (Negative signal)[27] - **Inflation Strength Factor**: Score = -1 (Negative signal)[28] 3. Valuation Factors - **Shiller ERP**: Score = 0.07 (Slightly positive signal)[34] - **PB**: Score = -0.37 (Negative signal)[35] - **AIAE**: Score = -0.69 (Negative signal)[38] 4. Crowding Factors - **Option Implied Basis**: Score = 1 (Positive signal)[59] - **Option VIX**: Score = 1 (Positive signal)[60] - **Option SKEW**: Score = 1 (Positive signal)[65] - **Convertible Bond Mispricing**: Score = -1 (

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company faced significant challenges in Q3 due to a decline in sales and the Mega recall, resulting in a quarterly loss. Q3 sales were 93,200 units, down 39% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, with revenue decreasing 36% year-on-year to 27.4 billion yuan [1]. - The company is shifting back to a startup management model, focusing on user value and efficiency, while also planning to launch an AI system based on its self-developed M100 chip by 2026 [2]. - The i6 model is expected to alleviate supply chain capacity constraints, with production capacity projected to reach 20,000 units per month by early 2026 [3]. Financial Summary - Q3 gross margin was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the Mega recall costs and increased unit manufacturing costs [1]. - The company forecasts Q4 vehicle deliveries between 100,000 and 110,000 units, with revenue expected to be between 26.5 billion and 29.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.2% to 40.1% [1]. - For the years 2025-2027, the company anticipates sales of approximately 410,000, 590,000, and 700,000 units, with total revenues reaching 112.2 billion, 148.3 billion, and 182.4 billion yuan respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a net loss of 625 million yuan in Q3, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 360 million yuan, translating to a Non-GAAP net loss margin of 1.3% [1]. - The projected GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 1.1 billion, 5.3 billion, and 8.1 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit margins of 1.0%, 3.5%, and 4.4% [3]. - The report indicates a target market capitalization of 163.1 billion yuan, with a target price of approximately 84 HKD per share [3].

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 29 年 月 日 蔚来-SW（09866.HK） 预计 Q4 扭亏、2026 年全年目标盈利 Q3 毛利率超预期，Q4 收入指引相对保守、季度维持扭亏为盈目标。公司 25Q3 交付 了 87071 台车，同比增长 40.8%、环比增长 20.8%，其中蔚来/乐道/萤火虫品牌分别 交 付 36928/37656/12487 辆车。销量的高增长带动 Q3 收入同比 /环比增长 16.7%/14.7%至 218 亿元，其中汽车销售同比/环比增长 15%/19%至 192 亿元。公司 Q3 毛利率 13.9%，同比/环比提升 3.2pct/3.9pct。其中，汽车毛利率同比/环比分别提 升 1.6pct/4.4pct 至 14.7%，改善主要来自公司全面降本措施及规模经济。服务及其他 毛利率同比提升 16.5pct 至 7.8%，主要来自降本增效带来的零部件、配件销售及车辆 售后服务毛利率提升。由于有效的组织优化、新产品及新技术不同开发阶段带来的设计 及开发费用下降，公司 Q3 研发费用降低至 24 亿元；由于新产品推出相关的销售及营 销活动，公司 ...