证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 投资建议：短期重视春节旺季子板块，2026 年看好新服务&新零售 考虑到临近春节旺季，我们建议重视旺季有业绩弹性的子板块，主要包括 免税、部分景区、商超、黄金珠宝等，以及作为春晚四大分会场之一的义 乌（小商品城）；免税和出行链近期基本面环比改善，建议后续持续观察和 验证。此外，当前市场关注 AI 应用落地情况，AI 赋能电商营销潜力大。 展望 2026 年，我们建议：1）对内，在政策持续加码的背景下，看好服 务消费和商品消费两大方向，重视顺周期属性较强的免税和出行链（景区 酒店餐饮文旅等）、估值性价比较高的黄金珠宝板块和名创优品，以及市 场预期偏低但基本面有改善机会的调改主线。2）对外，建议继续优选出 海龙头，平台与品牌均有机会，既有出口高景气β保障成长和 AI 应用提 效空间，也有品牌强势高增和部分清库尾声的反转机会。 综上推荐小商品城、中国中免、华住集团、首旅酒店、锦江酒店、潮宏基、 九华旅游、若羽臣、青木科技、名创优品、永辉超市，关注三峡旅游、陕 西旅游、菜百股份、老铺黄金、君亭酒店、古茗、小菜园、百胜中国、海 底捞 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (00710.HK) [5] Core Insights - BOE Technology Group is actively expanding its product offerings and international presence, recently launching the HERO 2.0 smart cockpit at CES 2026, which integrates AI technology to enhance audio-visual experiences, interaction methods, and application scenarios [1] - The company is also expanding its production capacity with the construction of the third phase of its Heyuan manufacturing base, expected to add over 10 million units of annual production capacity upon completion in December 2026 [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are approximately HKD 14 billion, HKD 15.5 billion, and HKD 17.5 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4%, 10%, and 13% respectively, while net profit is expected to be HKD 3.7 billion, HKD 4.7 billion, and HKD 5.5 billion, with a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [3][4] Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of HKD 10.76 billion, with a projected increase to HKD 13.45 billion in 2024, and further growth to HKD 14.00 billion in 2025, representing a 0% growth in 2023 and 25% in 2024 [4][12] - The net profit for 2023 was HKD 475 million, with expectations of HKD 391 million in 2024 and a slight recovery to HKD 373 million in 2025, indicating a net profit margin of 4.4% in 2023, declining to 2.9% in 2024, and stabilizing around 3.0% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 [4][12] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 10.5x, 8.4x, and 7.2x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q4 2025 met expectations, with the main brand, Xtep, showing stable revenue while the Saucony brand experienced a decline of over 30% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is expected to focus on the running segment in 2026, with anticipated revenue growth of 8.7% to 15.785 billion yuan and a net profit decline of 10.2% to 1.5 billion yuan [3] - The company has introduced new products, including the 160X 7th generation running shoes and the 2000 km 5th generation running shoes, which are expected to perform well in sales [1] Revenue Performance - In Q4 2025, Xtep's main brand revenue remained flat year-on-year, with strong performance in the running category and e-commerce channels [1] - The company anticipates that the running category will outperform the overall brand performance due to events like marathons and athlete sponsorships [1] Operational Performance - The company maintained excellent discount control in Q4 2025, with terminal discounts at 70-75%, and inventory turnover days at approximately 4.5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [2] - Saucony's revenue decline accelerated in Q4 2025 compared to Q3, but improvements in brand influence and product matrix are expected to enhance same-store sales [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a revenue decline of 10.2% in net profit for 2026, with projected net profits of 1.5 billion yuan [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.49 yuan in 2025 and 0.54 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.5 times for 2026 [4][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with the construction of a new manufacturing base, expected to add over 10 million units of annual production capacity by the end of 2026 [2]. - The introduction of the HERO 2.0 smart cockpit at CES 2026 showcases the company's integration of AI technology, enhancing visual, auditory, and interactive experiences [1]. - The company is transitioning from a component supplier to a solution provider through continuous product and service iterations [1]. Financial Performance - The projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is approximately HKD 14,002 million, HKD 15,451 million, and HKD 17,498 million, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +4%, +10%, and +13% respectively [3][4]. - The expected net profit for the same period is HKD 373 million, HKD 467 million, and HKD 546 million, with year-on-year changes of -5%, +25%, and +17% respectively [3][4]. - The company's P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 10.5x, 8.4x, and 7.2x [3]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The new manufacturing base in Heyuan will include smart production lines and R&D centers, further solidifying the company's market leadership in automotive display shipments [2]. - The company has established a global production and supply service system with bases in Heyuan, Chengdu, and Vietnam [2]. Product Innovation - The HERO 2.0 cockpit features advanced visual technology with MicroLED PHUD, achieving 50,000 nits brightness and 115% NTSC color gamut [1]. - The introduction of AI-powered digital amplifiers and multi-modal interaction methods enhances user experience within the cockpit [1].

投资策略 四季度基金调仓五大看点——2025Q4 基金仓位解析 1、总体配置：规模回落，仓位调降 2025 年四季度，主动偏股型基金规模小幅回落，其中持股市值规模回落 5.21%至 33843.12 亿元，基金资产总规模回落 3.63%至 40191.1 亿元，流通市值占比也由 2025 年三季度的 3.72%降至 3.44%。与此同时，权益仓位有所下修，其中整体法 视角下的权益仓位降低 1.40%，达到 84.21%；均值法视角下的权益仓位环比下行 0.99%，达到 82.19%。 2、2025 年四季度基金调仓五大看点： 看点 1：整体规模波动收窄，赎回压力转弱。2025 年四季度，市场整体维持高位 震荡，净值波动对基金规模的影响较三季度明显减弱。与此同时，经历了三季度浮 亏转正导致的大幅赎回后，四季度的基金赎回压力已明显转弱，估算结果显示四 季度的赎回拖累幅度较三季度大致环比减半。总体看，四季度基金赎回压力边际 转弱，叠加净值波动收窄，整体规模仅小幅回落。 证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2026 01 23 年 月 日 看点 2：创业板获集中加仓，刷新 2017 年以来的新高。2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its performance and growth potential [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has turned a profit in its annual report, with a projected net profit of 100-150 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.96% to 159.93% [1]. - The energy digitalization and energy internet sectors are driving the company's growth, with significant improvements in profitability expected in 2025 [2]. - The company has made substantial progress in AI applications for power trading, with a projected threefold increase in trading volume in 2025 compared to the previous year [2]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 5.169 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.4% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 106 million yuan, marking a significant recovery from a loss of 250 million yuan in 2024 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.10 yuan for 2025, with a substantial increase in profitability anticipated in the following years [4]. Business Development - The energy digitalization business has shown marked improvement, focusing on smart grid solutions and expanding into international markets [2]. - The company has successfully integrated over 2 million charging devices into its platform, indicating strong growth in its new energy segment [3]. - The AI-powered energy trading model has led to a significant increase in trading contracts, with a fourfold growth expected in new contracts signed for 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The EDA (Electronic Design Automation) market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected global market size of $18.3 billion by 2026, reflecting its critical role in the semiconductor industry [2][15]. - The domestic EDA market in China is anticipated to grow at a faster rate than the global market, driven by the rapid development of the integrated circuit industry and emerging technologies such as 5G and AI [18]. - The EDA industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies (Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA) holding a combined market share of 74% [21]. Summary by Sections EDA: The Foundation of Semiconductor Design and Manufacturing - EDA tools are essential for the design, simulation, and verification of integrated circuits, playing a crucial role in the entire chip development process [10][11]. - The global EDA market is entering a stable growth phase, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% from 2017 to 2024, and a projected market size of $15.71 billion in 2024 [15][18]. - The Chinese EDA market is expected to reach approximately 15.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 16.8% [18]. Manufacturing EDA and Design EDA - Manufacturing EDA is a core component of the integrated circuit production process, covering all stages from process platform development to wafer production [3][33]. - The manufacturing EDA market is projected to grow from $3.315 billion in 2020 to $5.754 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 9.63% [3]. - The report outlines six categories of manufacturing EDA tools, including process and device simulation tools, device modeling and verification tools, and yield management tools [35]. Domestic EDA Companies on the Rise - The report highlights the increasing restrictions on EDA tool exports from the U.S., which presents both challenges and opportunities for domestic EDA companies in China [4]. - The domestic EDA market is characterized by significant growth potential, driven by the need for self-sufficiency and the development of a robust industry ecosystem [4][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overcoming high-end core technology barriers and optimizing industry chain processes to enhance competitiveness [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its performance and growth potential [5]. Core Insights - The company has turned a profit in its annual report, with a projected net profit of 100-150 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.96% to 159.93% [1]. - The energy digitalization and energy internet sectors are driving the company's growth, with significant improvements in profitability expected in 2025 [2]. - The company has achieved substantial growth in its AI-powered electricity trading, with trading volume expected to triple year-on-year in 2025 [2]. - The new energy platform, "New Electric Path," has shown continuous improvement, with losses narrowing and the number of connected charging devices exceeding 2 million [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 5.169 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.4% [4]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 106 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 250 million yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 142.3% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.10 yuan in 2025, with a forecasted increase to 0.44 yuan in 2026 and 0.77 yuan in 2027 [4]. Business Development - The company is actively promoting AI pilot projects and expanding its overseas electricity grid digitalization efforts, leading to rapid revenue growth [2]. - The company has made significant progress in its electricity grid business, participating in various AI application pilot projects [2]. - The "New Electric Path" platform has achieved a registered user base of over 23 million and partnerships with over 4,300 charging station operators [3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in both domestic demand and overseas expansion for 2026, particularly focusing on new services and new retail sectors [2][24] - It highlights the positive resonance between policy and fundamentals, suggesting that leading companies in the commercial sector are likely to benefit from policy stimuli and improve their fundamentals [2][4] Domestic Demand - The report identifies new services and new retail as the main lines for domestic demand, with a focus on the marginal changes in the fundamentals of related sub-sectors [2][5] - Specific sub-sectors showing price increase potential include: - **Hotels**: Strong leisure demand and optimized supply structure, with prices expected to remain stable or slightly increase. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Shoulv Hotels [2][3] - **Duty-Free**: With the opening of Hainan, the sector is stabilizing, and China Duty Free is highlighted as a key player [2][3] - **Gold and Jewelry**: The report notes a high volatility in gold prices but anticipates improved terminal sales. Recommended companies include Chow Tai Fook and Lao Puhuang [2][3] - **Mother and Baby**: Leading companies are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by favorable policies. Recommended companies include Kidswant and Aiyingshi [2][3] Sub-Sectors Driven by Volume Growth - The report suggests focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for sectors primarily driven by volume growth: - **Supermarkets**: CPI increases are beneficial for same-store sales, with a shift in focus from store adjustments to supply chain reforms. Recommended companies include Yonghui Superstores and Jiajiayue [3][5] - **Tourism**: The report highlights the potential for expansion and asset integration in the tourism sector, recommending companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain [3][5] - **Dining**: Emphasizes refined operations and incentives for leading companies, with recommendations including Yum China and Haidilao [3][5] - **Tea Drinks**: The report notes that delivery subsidies may impact pricing, with store openings expected to drive growth. Recommended companies include Mixue and Gu Ming [3][5] Overseas Expansion - The report indicates that leading companies with high barriers to entry are expected to continue showing strong performance in overseas markets, with a focus on brand building and diversified destinations [4][24] - Recommended companies for overseas expansion include: - **Small Commodity City** and **Miniso**: Both are noted for their strong performance and brand development [4][24] - **Anker Innovations** and **Sumida**: Highlighted for their competitive advantages in specific segments [4][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that for 2026, investors should focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and those with strong performance certainty in overseas markets [5][24] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of volume in certain sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to pricing stability [5][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 9.203 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.61 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the accelerated demand for AI computing power, benefiting the company’s products in PC, server, and automotive electronics sectors. The storage industry cycle is steadily improving, leading to a rise in both price and volume of products [1][3]. - The company has a significant advantage in the customized storage sector, with ongoing projects expected to yield results starting in 2026 [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.203 billion yuan in 2025, 12.424 billion yuan in 2026, and 15.530 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.1%, 35%, and 25% respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.611 billion yuan in 2025, 3.145 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.914 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 46.1%, 95.2%, and 24.4% respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 130 for 2025, 67 for 2026, and 54 for 2027 [3].