证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 06 13 年 月 日 周大福（01929.HK） 产品结构优化效果显著，FY2025 经营利润增长 10% 公司 FY2025 营收同比下降 18%，经营利润同比增长 10%，利润 率改善明显。公司披露 FY2025 年报，由于消费环境波动以及金价高 企，公司营收同比下降 17.5%至 896.56 亿港元，与此同时受益于产 品结构优化以及金价上行带来的收益，公司经营利润率同比提升 4pcts 至 16.4%，经营利润同比增长 9.8%至 147.46 亿港元，整体表 现优异，综合考虑黄金借贷公允价值变动的影响后，归母净利润同比 下降 9%至 59.16 亿港元。董事会建议派发末期股息每股 0.32 港元， 全年股息每股共 0.52 港元，2025 财政年度全年派息率约为 87.8%。 邮箱：wangjiawei@gszq.com 相关研究 内地：FY2025 内地营收下降 17%，公司持续优化渠道网络，同时 推动产品力提升。FY2025 中国内地营收同比下降 16.9%至 745.56 亿 港元，其中零售/批发渠道营收同比-16%/-17 ...

◼ 重磅研报 作者 【宏观】关税为何没有推升美国通胀？——美国 5 月 CPI 点评—— 20250612 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 13 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 【固定收益】以哑铃策略稳中求进——转债策略月报——20250612 关税为何没有推升美国通胀？ 【建筑材料】弱现实但酝酿积极变化，2025 年消费建材或是"黄金坑" ——20250612 今日概览 【电子】兆易创新（603986.SH）-存储龙头多元布局，深度受益 AI+国 产替代——20250612 | 分析师 | 熊园 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680518050004 | | | | | 邮箱：xiongyuan@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 医药生物 | 10.6% | 9.1% | 11.7% | | 传媒 | 6.8% | -0.9% | 34.9% | | 有色金属 | 6.4% | 3.2% | 13.1% | | 纺织服饰 | 5.9% ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 2025年06月12日 宏观点评 关税为何没有推升美国通胀? -- 美国 5月 CPI点评 事件: 北京时间 6月 11 日 20:30,美国公布 2025年5月 CPI。 核心结论:美国5月CPI和核心CPI 均低于预期,整体通胀压力依然较为 温和。数据公布后,美联储降息预期小幅上调,目前市场依然预期美联储 年内降息2次,首次在9月。往后看,关税对通胀并非没有影响、而是尚 未充分显现,美国通胀上行风险依然存在。未来两个月重点关注贸易谈判 进展、特朗普"大美丽法案"进展、美联储6/19 议息会议的表态。 1、美国5月 CPI和核心 CPI 双双低于预期,关税影响尚不显著。 >整体表现:美国 2025年5月未季调 CPI 同比 2.4%,低于预期值 2.5%, 高于前值 2.3%;核心 CPI 同比 2.8%,低于预期值 2.9%,持平前值,为 四年来最低。李调后 CPI 环比 0.1%,低于预期值、前值和 12个月均值 0.2%;核心 CPI 环比 0.1%,低于预期值 0.3%和前值、12个月均值 0.2%。 | 分析师 | 熊园 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 12 年 月 日 宏观点评 关税为何没有推升美国通胀？——美国 5 月 CPI 点评 事件：北京时间 6 月 11 日 20:30，美国公布 2025 年 5 月 CPI。 核心结论：美国 5 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 均低于预期，整体通胀压力依然较为 温和。数据公布后，美联储降息预期小幅上调，目前市场依然预期美联储 年内降息 2 次，首次在 9 月。往后看，关税对通胀并非没有影响、而是尚 未充分显现，美国通胀上行风险依然存在。未来两个月重点关注贸易谈判 进展、特朗普"大美丽法案"进展、美联储 6/19 议息会议的表态。 1、美国 5 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 双双低于预期，关税影响尚不显著。 >整体表现：美国 2025 年 5 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.4%，低于预期值 2.5%， 高于前值 2.3%；核心 CPI 同比 2.8%，低于预期值 2.9%，持平前值，为 四年来最低。季调后 CPI 环比 0.1%，低于预期值、前值和 12 个月均值 0.2%；核心 CPI 环比 0.1%，低于预期值 0.3%和前值、12 个月均值 0. ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 06 12 年 月 日 兆易创新（603986.SH） 存储龙头多元布局，深度受益 AI+国产替代 布局存储+MCU+传感器，产品出货量创出新高。兆易创新产品主要覆盖 存储、MCU、传感器三大领域，其中 2024 年存储收入占比 70%以上，公 司在 NOR Flash 领域全球市占率第二，SLC NAND 也逐步占据一定份额， DRAM 业务随着三大原厂逐步退出+端侧定制化方案的顺利推进有望实现 较大增长。2024 年公司产品出货量达到 43.62 亿颗，同比增长 39.72%， 创出历史新高，因行业下游市场需求有所回暖，客户增加备货，公司产品 在消费、网通、计算等多个领域均实现收入和销量大幅增长。公司实现营 业收入 73.56 亿元，同比增长 27.69%；公司归母净利润回升至 11.03 亿 元，同比增加 584.21%。 利基存储格局优化，端侧 AI 推动定制化需求增长。半导体存储主要有 DRAM/NAND/Nor Flash 等，2023 年分别占比 54%/41%/2.5%，2024 年 全年 DRAM 和 NAND Flash ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 06 12 年 月 日 兆易创新（603986.SH） 存储龙头多元布局，深度受益 AI+国产替代 布局存储+MCU+传感器，产品出货量创出新高。兆易创新产品主要覆盖 存储、MCU、传感器三大领域，其中 2024 年存储收入占比 70%以上，公 司在 NOR Flash 领域全球市占率第二，SLC NAND 也逐步占据一定份额， DRAM 业务随着三大原厂逐步退出+端侧定制化方案的顺利推进有望实现 较大增长。2024 年公司产品出货量达到 43.62 亿颗，同比增长 39.72%， 创出历史新高，因行业下游市场需求有所回暖，客户增加备货，公司产品 在消费、网通、计算等多个领域均实现收入和销量大幅增长。公司实现营 业收入 73.56 亿元，同比增长 27.69%；公司归母净利润回升至 11.03 亿 元，同比增加 584.21%。 利基存储格局优化，端侧 AI 推动定制化需求增长。半导体存储主要有 DRAM/NAND/Nor Flash 等，2023 年分别占比 54%/41%/2.5%，2024 年 全年 DRAM 和 NAND Flash ...

Group 1: TMT Sector Insights - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the TMT sector's congestion has decreased, suggesting that a barbell strategy may be the optimal solution at present [3] - Based on the trend model, certain value sectors such as non-ferrous metals, agriculture, banking, and building materials are in the "strong trend - low congestion" area [3] - The report highlights that the building materials, non-bank financials, military industry, new energy, and steel sectors are in the "high prosperity + strong trend" quadrant, showing significant changes compared to the first quarter [3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stable value sectors (banking, non-bank financials, steel, agriculture, building materials) on one hand, and technology sectors (electronics, communications, military, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals) on the other hand, as a barbell strategy [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - For Chipone Technology (688521.SH), the company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.18 billion, 4.06 billion, and 5.88 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.9%, 27.6%, and 45.0% [5] - The report anticipates that the net profit attributable to the parent company for Chipone Technology will be 10 million, 60 million, and 140 million yuan for the same years, reflecting significant growth rates of 101.8%, 505.1%, and 125.3% [5] - Eastroc Beverage (003012.SZ) is expected to generate revenues of 6.01 billion, 6.11 billion, and 6.58 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.8% [8] Group 4: Industry Performance Overview - The report lists the top-performing industries over the past year, with pharmaceuticals and biotechnology leading at 10.4%, followed by agriculture at 2.8% and textiles at 13.4% [1] - Conversely, the worst-performing industries include defense and military, food and beverage, and machinery, with declines of 17.5%, 3.1%, and 26.0% respectively over the past year [1] Group 5: Resource Expansion Insights - The report notes that Yubang Mining's silver resource has been confirmed to increase to 21,600 tons, with an additional 6,147 tons added, which is above expectations [9] - The projected revenues for Yubang Mining are expected to be 5.86 billion, 6.68 billion, and 8.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.06 billion, 2.41 billion, and 3.13 billion yuan respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [4][5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading provider of one-stop customized chip design and semiconductor IP licensing services, focusing on R&D to drive future growth [14][17]. - The demand for self-developed ASICs from cloud vendors is surging, presenting historical opportunities for the chip design service industry [2][38]. - There is a pressing need for domestic semiconductor IP, with the company ranked first in China and eighth globally in terms of sales revenue [3][4]. Summary by Sections One-Stop Customized Chip Design & IP - The company offers comprehensive chip customization services and semiconductor IP licensing, with a strong emphasis on R&D and talent development [14][17]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has a record high order backlog of 24.56 billion yuan, indicating robust future revenue potential [1][11]. ASIC Demand Surge - The chip design service industry is experiencing a significant demand increase for self-developed ASICs, particularly from major cloud service providers [2][38]. - The company has strong supply chain capabilities, enabling it to meet the self-development needs of large enterprises [2][38]. Semiconductor IP Localization - The company is the leading provider of semiconductor IP in China, with a wide range of applications for its NPU and GPU IP products [3][4]. - The localization of semiconductor IP is critical, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from the trend towards domestic alternatives [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for the company are 31.8 billion yuan in 2025, 40.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.8 billion yuan in 2027, with expected growth rates of 36.9%, 27.6%, and 45.0% respectively [4][9]. - The company is expected to turn profitable by 2025, with a projected net profit of 0.1 billion yuan, growing significantly in subsequent years [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Views - The company, Dongpeng Holdings, is a leading player in the ceramic tile industry, with a strong retail channel and solid cash flow, despite facing challenges in demand and competition [1][3]. - The demand for second-hand housing is providing support, and the supply side is accelerating its exit, leading to an improvement in industry beta [1][2]. - The company has a robust cash flow, with a projected operating cash flow of 860 million yuan in 2024 and a cash balance of 2.38 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Dongpeng Holdings specializes in ceramic tiles and sanitary ware, with over 80% of its revenue coming from tile sales [1][13]. - The company has a nationwide presence with approximately 7,000 sales outlets and a dealer network of 4,500 [2][13]. Industry Analysis - The ceramic tile industry is experiencing a decline in new construction demand, but there is a growing demand for renovations, particularly in second-hand housing [1][10]. - The supply side is undergoing a market-driven exit, with outdated production capacities expected to be phased out due to energy control and carbon reduction policies [1][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects revenue to decline to 6.47 billion yuan, a 16.8% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit of 330 million yuan, down 54.4% [1][4]. - The company forecasts a recovery starting in 2025, with projected revenues of 6.01 billion yuan, 6.11 billion yuan, and 6.58 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company maintains a stable gross margin, with a projected gross margin of 29.7% in 2024, despite a decrease from previous years [29]. - Operating cash flow is expected to remain strong, with a cash flow ratio of 1.2 and a net cash ratio of 2.6 in 2024 [2][3]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing renovation demand and is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [3][4]. - The report highlights the potential for an increase in dividend yield, projected at approximately 4.3% based on the closing price as of June 9, 2025 [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company, Dongpeng Holdings, is a leading player in the ceramic tile industry, with a strong retail channel and solid cash flow, despite facing challenges in the current market environment [3][10]. - The demand for second-hand housing is providing support, while supply-side adjustments are underway, leading to an improvement in industry beta [1][10]. - The company has a robust cash position, with a cash balance of 2.38 billion and a dividend yield of approximately 4.3% [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Dongpeng Holdings specializes in ceramic tiles and sanitary ware, with over 80% of its revenue coming from tile sales [1][13]. - The company has a nationwide distribution network with approximately 7,000 sales outlets and a dealer network of 4,500 [2][13]. Industry Analysis - The ceramic tile industry is experiencing a decline in new construction demand, but there is a growing trend in renovation demand, particularly from the second-hand housing market [1][10]. - The supply-side is undergoing a cleansing process, driven by market forces and energy efficiency initiatives, which is expected to benefit the industry in the long term [1][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.47 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 16.8%, with a net profit of 330 million, down 54.4% [1][4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.01 billion, 6.11 billion, and 6.58 billion respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.8% [3][4]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company has a strong cash flow, with an operating cash flow of 860 million in 2024 and a cash balance of 2.38 billion at the end of the year [2][10]. - The dividend payment capability is supported by the company's solid cash flow and reduced impairment risks [2][10]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company has maintained a relatively stable gross margin despite market pressures, with a gross margin of 29.7% in 2024 [29]. - Cost control measures have been effective, with a management expense ratio of 6.6%, indicating efficient expense management [29][10].