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模塑科技(000700):2025Q1扣非业绩同环比高增,盈利能力修复
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-13 06:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.6 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.65% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.27%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.74% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 70.15%. The non-recurring net profit was 140 million, with a year-on-year increase of 45.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 145.62% [1] - The company's performance in Q1 2025 indicates a recovery in profitability, benefiting from the sales boost from new energy vehicle clients, despite a general decline in domestic passenger car sales [1][2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.9%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8 percentage points, attributed to improved operational efficiency and the domestic vehicle replacement policy [2] - The company is actively expanding its client base in the new energy sector while maintaining its advantages with luxury car manufacturers, with new projects expected to generate significant sales [2] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 699 million, 795 million, and 898 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 8, and 7 times [2][3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 8.118 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8% [3] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.76, with a net asset return rate of 18.1% [3][7]
宏观点评:中美经贸会谈大超预期的4点理解-“东升”再强化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-13 06:23
证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件:5 月 12 日 15:00,中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明,大幅降 低双边关税水平,并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点:中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期,这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性,进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性,也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现,最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%(2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税),预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点,拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点, 指向我国经济下行压力仍大,预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向, 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆,我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看,中美关税不确定性仍大,重点关注 3 大方面: 1)中美谈判进展,不排除出现关税反复的可能性;2)中美谈判议题, 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...
多利科技(001311):业绩符合预期,开拓新业务挖掘发展潜力
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-13 06:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 3.6 billion and a net profit of 430 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8% and 14% respectively. In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to 870 million, while net profit decreased by 17% [1]. - The growth in revenue for Q1 2025 was driven by increased demand from major clients such as Tesla, Li Auto, NIO, and BYD, as domestic new energy vehicle sales rose by 47% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its technological and research capabilities, particularly in mold development and stamping welding technology, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the automotive parts industry [2]. - The company is expanding its business layout by venturing into integrated die-casting, hot forming, and composite materials, with expectations for large-scale production of integrated die-casting by the second half of 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3.6 billion in 2024, with a projected revenue of 4.1 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 15% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to recover to 498 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 17.3% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.09, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5 [4]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.9%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating improved profitability [1].
宏观点评:中美经贸会谈大超预期的4点理解:“东升”再强化-20250513
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-13 06:03
证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件:5 月 12 日 15:00,中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明,大幅降 低双边关税水平,并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点:中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期,这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性,进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性,也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现,最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%(2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税),预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点,拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点, 指向我国经济下行压力仍大,预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向, 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆,我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看,中美关税不确定性仍大,重点关注 3 大方面: 1)中美谈判进展,不排除出现关税反复的可能性;2)中美谈判议题, 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...
国科微(300672):编解码芯片领军者,AI布局逐步完善
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-13 05:28
证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 国科微(300672.SZ) 编解码芯片领军者,AI 布局逐步完善 聚焦视频编解码领域,产品矩阵不断丰富。国科微是国内领先的人工智能 与多媒体、数据存储、物联网等芯片解决方案提供商。公司产品涵盖视频 解码系列芯片、视频编码系列芯片、固态存储系列芯片领域、物联网系列 产品领域,公司目前积极布局汽车算力芯片与 serdes 芯片,市场空间进一 步打开。公司 2020 至 2024 年实现营业收入复合增速 28.26%,2024 年, 公司实现营收 19.78 亿元,同比下滑 53%,主要系公司缩减毛利率较低的 相关产品的销售,从而降低了整体营业收入。 视频编码芯片:AI 智慧赋能,拓宽视觉芯片市场空间。视频监控主要分 为前端设备和后端设备两个部分。前端主要为模拟摄像机和网络摄像机, 核心部件分别包括一颗 ISP 芯片和 IPCSoC 芯片;后端设备主要为 NVR/DVR,分别内置一颗 NVRSoC 芯片和 DVRSoC 芯片。预计至 2026 年, 全球 IPC SoC 市场规模将达到 10.9 亿美元、NVR SoC 市 ...
国科微:编解码芯片领军者,AI布局逐步完善-20250513
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-13 05:23
证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 国科微(300672.SZ) 编解码芯片领军者,AI 布局逐步完善 聚焦视频编解码领域,产品矩阵不断丰富。国科微是国内领先的人工智能 与多媒体、数据存储、物联网等芯片解决方案提供商。公司产品涵盖视频 解码系列芯片、视频编码系列芯片、固态存储系列芯片领域、物联网系列 产品领域,公司目前积极布局汽车算力芯片与 serdes 芯片,市场空间进一 步打开。公司 2020 至 2024 年实现营业收入复合增速 28.26%,2024 年, 公司实现营收 19.78 亿元,同比下滑 53%,主要系公司缩减毛利率较低的 相关产品的销售,从而降低了整体营业收入。 视频编码芯片:AI 智慧赋能,拓宽视觉芯片市场空间。视频监控主要分 为前端设备和后端设备两个部分。前端主要为模拟摄像机和网络摄像机, 核心部件分别包括一颗 ISP 芯片和 IPCSoC 芯片;后端设备主要为 NVR/DVR,分别内置一颗 NVRSoC 芯片和 DVRSoC 芯片。预计至 2026 年, 全球 IPC SoC 市场规模将达到 10.9 亿美元、NVR SoC 市 ...
朝闻国盛:出口链与高股息再梳理-20250513
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-13 00:00
Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report discusses the supply-demand dynamics, identifying industries experiencing "supply clearance" or "strong expansion" [3] - It analyzes the export chain, detailing the overseas revenue and revenue from the U.S. for various industries [3] - The report highlights a noticeable increase in dividend yields in certain transportation and consumer sectors [3] Group 2: Market Performance - A-share market shows a stable upward trend, driven by policy catalysts, with a recovery in risk appetite and marginal improvement in sentiment [3] - Global equity markets exhibit mixed performance, with A-shares leading in gains [3] - The report notes a rise in gold prices followed by a pullback, alongside the appreciation of the Renminbi [3] Group 3: Industry Insights - The automotive sector, particularly Xingyu Co., Ltd. (601799.SH), is noted for its strong domestic market performance and steady growth in overseas markets [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 165 billion, 205 billion, and 254 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with respective growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 24% [6] - The projected net profit for the same period is 19 billion, 25 billion, and 31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 36%, 30%, and 26% [6]
固定收益定期:一文全览科创债
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 09:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market's "Tech Board" has been launched, with policies encouraging, improving issuance mechanisms, and providing financing support, which is expected to gradually expand the science and technology innovation bond (Sci - tech Bond) market [1][5][9][10][50]. - The proportion of long - term Sci - tech Bonds may increase as issuers are encouraged to issue long - term bonds and risk - sharing tools are created [5][10][50]. - The issuers of Sci - tech Bonds will become more diverse, including financial institutions, technology - based enterprises, and equity investment institutions [9][10][50]. - The participation of institutional investors in Sci - tech Bonds is expected to increase, and the overall market valuation may be compressed [5][50][51]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Bond Market "Tech Board" Launched - On May 7, 2025, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced support for three types of market entities (financial institutions, technology - based enterprises, and equity investment institutions) to issue Sci - tech Bonds. Nearly 100 market institutions plan to issue over 300 billion yuan of Sci - tech Bonds [9]. - On May 8, the PBOC and CSRC jointly issued an announcement with measures to support the issuance of Sci - tech Bonds, including enriching product systems, improving support mechanisms, and creating risk - sharing tools [10][11]. 2. Development History of Sci - tech Thematic Bonds - In 2016, the CSRC promoted the pilot issuance of dual - innovation bonds (Dual - innovation Bonds). In 2017, Dual - innovation Bonds entered the regular issuance stage [2][12]. - In 2021, the exchange piloted the issuance of Sci - tech Bonds, which became regular after 2022. In 2022, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges issued guidelines for the issuance and listing review of Sci - tech Bonds [2][13]. - In 2021, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) launched high - growth enterprise debt financing instruments, which were upgraded to Sci - tech Notes in 2022 [2][14]. 3. Overview of Sci - tech Bond Issuance and Outstanding Amounts 3.1 Sci - tech Bond Issuance - As of May 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and Sci - tech Notes reached 2.67 trillion yuan, with 1.29 trillion yuan for Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and 1.38 trillion yuan for Sci - tech Notes [3][18]. - From 2021 - 2024, the issuance of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds increased annually. As of May 5, 2025, the issuance in 2025 was 193.293 billion yuan. The issuance terms were mainly 3 - 10 years, and the proportion of long - term bonds increased in 2024 [19]. - The issuers of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds are mainly AAA - rated central and local state - owned enterprises. The industries with large issuance scales are construction decoration, comprehensive, and public utilities [23][25]. - From 2022 - 2024, the supply of Sci - tech Notes increased annually. As of May 5, 2025, the issuance in 2025 was 207.971 billion yuan. Sci - tech Notes include various bond types, mainly medium - term notes and short - term financing bills, with relatively short issuance terms [27][29]. - The issuers of Sci - tech Notes are also mainly AAA - rated central and local state - owned enterprises, and the proportion of private enterprises is higher than that of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds. The industries with large issuance scales are construction decoration, non - ferrous metals, and coal [31][33]. 3.2 Sci - tech Bond Outstanding Market - As of May 5, 2025, the outstanding amounts of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and Sci - tech Notes were 1.2086 trillion yuan and 688.5 billion yuan respectively. The outstanding bonds have the following characteristics: strong issuer qualifications (87% of external ratings are AAA), remaining terms concentrated within 5 years, mainly issued by central and local state - owned enterprises, and issuer industries concentrated in traditional industries [3][37]. - There is room to explore the yield of outstanding Sci - tech Bonds. The proportion of outstanding bonds with a valuation of over 2.1% is 49% for both Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and Sci - tech Notes. It is recommended to focus on AA - rated Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and Sci - tech Notes within 1 year [4][45][47]. 4. Impact of the Bond Market's "Tech Board" Launch - The Sci - tech Bond market is expected to expand gradually due to policy encouragement, improved issuance mechanisms, and financing support [5][50]. - The proportion of long - term Sci - tech Bonds may increase as issuers are encouraged to set flexible bond terms and risk - sharing tools are created [5][10][50]. - The issuers of Sci - tech Bonds will become more diverse, including financial institutions, technology - based enterprises, and equity investment institutions [9][10][50]. - The participation of institutional investors in Sci - tech Bonds is expected to increase, and the overall financing cost of Sci - tech Bonds may improve, leading to a potential compression of the overall market valuation [5][50][51].
投资策略:财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 06:23
证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题:供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日,A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕,我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 从供需格局的角度,有两类行业值得关注,第一类是左侧思路的"供给出 清"行业,即库存与产能均处于较为明显的出清状态,在需求能够保持稳 定甚至高速增长的背景下,上述行业有望凸显盈利弹性,25Q1 具备上述 特征的行业主要包括塑料、通用设备、游戏、种植业、小金属、光学光电 子、通信服务。 即国内需求存在压力的情况下,海外收入占比较高的出口链有望取得独立 景气,我们结合 2024 年上市公司主营构成与海关总署披露的出口数据对 各行业海外收入占比进行测算,当前全球出口链重点行业包括其他家电、 消费电子、航运港口、小家电、工程机械等。 第二类行业是右侧思路的"强势扩产"行业,即营收高速增长反映需求旺 盛,同时产能扩张处于较高水平,未来有望通过提高产量推动利润扩张, 25Q1 具备上述特征的行业主要包括其他电子 ...
财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理-20250512
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 05:42
证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题:供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日,A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕,我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 1.3 高股息:交运与消费部分行业股息率有明显抬升 我们结合各行业 2025 年现金分红情况与最新的 PE( TTM)对预期股息率 进行测算,高股息重点行业包括煤炭开采、油气开采、炼化与贸易、航运 港口、白色家电等。值得提示的是,今年交运与消费部分行业股息率相对 上年有明显抬升,包括航运港口、物流、白色家电、装修建材等。 二、策略观点:变盘仍未结束,静待方向明确 大势研判:本周 A 股市场继续凸显韧性,ETF 保持净流出态势反映护盘资 金入场力度减少,而 A 股仍然稳中有升,同时成交量能保持在万亿以上。 此前我们指出,受海内外因素影响,市场处于变盘点,需要密切关注风格 是否出现切换:特朗普对华态度出现缓和、4 月政治局会议落地、A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报将完整披露。而目前来看,我们 ...