证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后，供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题：供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日，A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕，我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 1.3 高股息：交运与消费部分行业股息率有明显抬升 我们结合各行业 2025 年现金分红情况与最新的 PE（ TTM）对预期股息率 进行测算，高股息重点行业包括煤炭开采、油气开采、炼化与贸易、航运 港口、白色家电等。值得提示的是，今年交运与消费部分行业股息率相对 上年有明显抬升，包括航运港口、物流、白色家电、装修建材等。 二、策略观点：变盘仍未结束，静待方向明确 大势研判：本周 A 股市场继续凸显韧性，ETF 保持净流出态势反映护盘资 金入场力度减少，而 A 股仍然稳中有升，同时成交量能保持在万亿以上。 此前我们指出，受海内外因素影响，市场处于变盘点，需要密切关注风格 是否出现切换：特朗普对华态度出现缓和、4 月政治局会议落地、A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报将完整披露。而目前来看，我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.095 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.3%, with a net profit of 322 million yuan, up 32.7% year-on-year [1] - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" policy, leading to sustained growth in automotive consumption, with a diverse customer base including major brands like Volkswagen, Toyota, and Mercedes-Benz [1][2] - The company has optimized its customer structure and improved profitability through strong cost control, with a net profit margin increase from 10.06% in Q1 2024 to 10.41% in Q1 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 16.511 billion yuan, 20.460 billion yuan, and 25.398 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.6%, 23.9%, and 24.1% [4] - The net profit is expected to reach 1.919 billion yuan, 2.486 billion yuan, and 3.125 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 36.3%, 29.5%, and 25.7% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 6.72 yuan, 8.70 yuan, and 10.94 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] Strategic Development - The company is deepening its domestic presence while expanding into Europe and the US, with a focus on R&D and partnerships with firms like Huawei [3] - The company has entered the supply chain of foreign luxury brands and is in a new phase of globalization with the establishment of factories in Europe and Mexico [3]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 星宇股份（601799.SH） 合作优质客户，业绩增长稳健 事件。公司 2025Q1 实现收入 30.95 亿元，同比增长 28.3%，归母净利润 3.22 亿元，同比增长 32.7%，毛利率 18.8%，净利率 10.4%。 合作优质客户，业绩增长稳健。2024H2 起，受益以旧换新政策拉动，汽 车消费持续向好，公司客户覆盖广，已合作大众系、丰田系、奔驰、宝马、 奇瑞汽车、理想汽车、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、赛力斯等，且配套车型持续 高端化。2025Q1，公司客户奇瑞、小鹏、赛力斯 M9 等销售表现较好，同 比增长分别为 17%/331%/117.8% ，带动公司总收入 / 利润增长 28.3%/32.7%。 客户结构持续优化，强费控带动盈利能力提升。2024 年，公司承接了多 家客户共 69 个车型的新品研发项目，实现了 40 个车型的项目批产，且部 分项目在市场上引发高度关注。公司与华为合作配套问界 M9 的智能大灯， 单车价值量高，随着产能逐渐爬坡，M9 在 2024 年交付 15 万辆，高端项 目收入贡献持续增加，20 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report indicates that several incremental policies are expected to be introduced, particularly focusing on fiscal stimulus, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing foreign trade, including potential budget increases and the issuance of special bonds [5] - CPI and PPI have shown negative growth for three consecutive months, primarily due to insufficient demand, with the central bank highlighting the ongoing imbalance between strong supply and weak demand in the real economy [6][7] - April exports exceeded expectations, driven by "transshipment" to ASEAN and new markets in Africa and India, despite a significant decline in exports to the US [9] Group 2: Energy Sector - The energy sector's overall performance is improving, with thermal power showing differentiated growth, hydropower improving, and green energy facing pressure; future electricity demand is expected to recover as fuel costs decline [25][26] - Recommendations include focusing on undervalued thermal power stocks and green energy operators, with specific companies highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential [26] Group 3: Food and Beverage Sector - The report highlights the strong market position of Jinshiyuan (603369.SH) as a leading player in Jiangsu's liquor market, with ongoing product upgrades and expansion efforts expected to enhance market share [27][28] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with projections indicating continued increases in earnings per share (EPS) over the next few years [28][29] Group 4: Electronics Sector - Ruixinwei (603893.SH) is positioned as a leader in the AIoT SoC platform, with substantial revenue growth and profitability improvements expected in the coming years, driven by a robust product matrix and market demand [31][32] - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to experience structural recovery, with AI technology penetration and domestic substitution driving growth across various segments [22][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The Shandong 136 document details a balanced approach to the entry of new energy into the market, providing stability for existing projects while enhancing competition for new projects [3][12][13] - For existing projects, the mechanism price is set at a cap of 0.3949 CNY/kWh (including tax), which aligns with the coal benchmark price in Shandong [13] - For new projects, a bidding capacity requirement of 125% is established, which increases competitive pressure and accelerates the exit of high-cost projects, pushing for efficiency and cost reduction in new energy projects [3][12][13] - The report recommends focusing on green power operators with a higher proportion of existing projects and better short-term revenue certainty, as well as high-quality flexible power sources like thermal and hydropower [3][12][13] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report highlights a 1.92% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 2.04% increase in the CITIC Power and Utilities Index during the week of May 6-9 [65][66] - The report notes a decline in coal prices to 643 CNY/ton [14] Key Projects and Developments - The Shandong provincial government has issued a detailed implementation plan for the market-oriented reform of new energy pricing, marking a significant step in the industry [3][12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of auxiliary service market transactions and price mechanisms, as well as optimizing capacity compensation mechanisms for power generation [13] Key Stocks and Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) with a buy rating - Anhui Energy Power (000543.SZ) with a buy rating - Guodian Power (600795.SH) with a buy rating - Huaneng International (600011.SH) with a buy rating - New Energy (688501.SH) with a buy rating - New天绿色能源 (600956.SH) with a buy rating [8][78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 27.158 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.52% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 7.07% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to the underperformance in the sales of wind turbines and related components, which generated 20.833 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.40% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerating development of offshore wind power in Europe, with a forecast of 19 GW of new offshore wind capacity globally in 2025 [3] - The company aims to enhance its profitability through technological advancements in offshore wind turbines and the development of large-scale onshore wind turbines [2][3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 8.1%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 1.37%, which remained stable year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant revenue increase of 51.78% year-on-year, reaching 7.704 billion yuan, although the net profit decreased slightly by 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at 2.383 billion yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 10 times [4][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The Shandong 136 document details a balanced approach to the entry of new energy into the market, providing stability for existing projects while enhancing competition for new projects [3][12][13] - For existing projects, the mechanism price is set at a cap of 0.3949 CNY/kWh (including tax), which aligns with the coal benchmark price in Shandong [13] - For new projects, a bidding capacity requirement of 125% is established, which increases competitive pressure and accelerates the exit of high-cost projects, pushing for efficiency and cost reduction in new energy projects [3][12][13] - The report recommends focusing on green power operators with a higher proportion of existing projects and better short-term revenue certainty, as well as high-quality flexible power sources like thermal and hydropower [3][12][13] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The Shandong 136 document was released on May 7, detailing the market-oriented reform implementation plan for new energy pricing [13] - The coal price has dropped to 643 CNY/ton [14] - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges reservoir have decreased by 17.39% and 47.66% year-on-year, respectively [36] - Silicon material prices have decreased to 39 CNY/kg, and mainstream silicon wafer prices have dropped to 1.18 CNY/unit [50] - The national carbon market trading price has decreased by 2.24% this week [60] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3342.00 points, up 1.92%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 3846.16 points, up 2.00% [65] - The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 2904.26 points, up 2.04%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.04 percentage points [65] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) - Buy - Anhui Energy Power (000543.SZ) - Buy - Guodian Power (600795.SH) - Buy - Huaneng International (600011.SH) - Buy - New Energy (688501.SH) - Buy - New Tian Green Energy (600956.SH) - Buy [8]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 煤炭开采 跌价利空钝化，退潮方现珍珠 行情回顾（2025.5.6~2025.5.9）： 中信煤炭指数 3,191.92 点，上涨 1.47%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.53pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 22 位。 近期，煤炭上市公司的 24 年年报&25 年一季报已披露完毕，我们从另外一个视角 对相关公司财报进行解析，总结如下： 谁是现金王？ ✓ "账面净现金"前 3：神华、陕煤、晋控； ✓ "账面净现金／净利"前 3：晋控、潞安、恒源； 谁的负债低？ ✓ "资产负债率"最低前 3：神华、晋控、电投； ✓ "资本负债率"最低前 3：潞安、晋控、神华； 谁的家底厚？ ✓ "专项储备"绝对额前 3：神华、陕煤、潞安； ✓ "吨煤专项储备"前 3：潞安、淮矿、恒源； 谁的潜力大？ ✓ 利润释放潜力前 3：昊华、伊泰、淮矿； 谁是分红王？ ✓ 近 3 年绝对额前 3：神华、陕煤、兖矿； ✓ 近 3 年比例前 3：冀中、神华、广汇； ✓ 24 年绝对额前 3：神华、陕煤、中煤； ✓ 24 年比例前 3：冀中、广汇、伊泰； ✓ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the stabilization of silicon material prices due to reduced production in response to weakened demand, with the average transaction price for granular silicon at 36,000 RMB/ton, down 2.7% week-on-week [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of two key directions: 1) focusing on silicon materials and glass with rigid supply and greater price elasticity post-demand recovery, with key companies including GCL-Poly Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. 2) exploring long-term growth opportunities brought by new technologies, focusing on Aiko Solar and Juhua Materials [14] - In the wind and electricity sector, Shandong has become the first province to implement the 136 document, clarifying pricing for existing projects at 0.3949 RMB/kWh, with a projected average settlement price for solar in Shandong at approximately 0.35 RMB/kWh in 2024 [15][18] - The report discusses the launch of China's first "trillion-level hydrogen energy project" in Shaanxi, which aims to utilize various hydrogen production methods to support low-carbon development [17] - The report notes that the average bidding price for energy storage systems in April was between 0.405 and 1.096 RMB/Wh, with recommendations to focus on companies with high growth certainty in large-scale storage, including Sungrow Power Supply and Eastern Gold Sun [21][24] Summary by Sections New Energy Generation - **Photovoltaics**: Silicon material prices are expected to stabilize as production is reduced in response to weakened demand, with a projected production reduction to 96,000 tons in May, down 3% month-on-month [14] - **Wind Power & Grid**: Shandong's implementation of the 136 document is expected to set a precedent for other provinces, with clear pricing mechanisms for existing projects [15][16] - **Hydrogen & Energy Storage**: The report highlights a significant hydrogen project in Shaanxi and provides insights into energy storage bidding prices, recommending key players in the sector [17][21] New Energy Vehicles - **Ningde Times**: The company has successfully passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, aiming to raise approximately 5 billion USD for expansion projects, including those in Hungary and Indonesia [26] - The report suggests focusing on leading lithium battery companies and the solid-state battery industry for long-term investment opportunities [27] Price Dynamics in the Photovoltaic Industry - The report provides detailed price changes in the photovoltaic supply chain, indicating a downward trend in prices for various components, including polysilicon and solar cells [29] Important News - The report summarizes significant developments in the new energy sector, including partnerships and project announcements that could impact market dynamics [30][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the casting industry, benefiting from the high growth and large-scale development of wind power installations [4] - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 4.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 624 million yuan, up 29.55% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is expected to see an increase in shipment volume in 2025 due to the rise in wind power installations, with a projected revenue of 6.333 billion yuan [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 17.34%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 2.83 percentage points to 13.11% [1] - The company reported a gross margin of 15.53% in Q1 2025, down 6.24 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 9.03%, a decrease of 3.25 percentage points [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 784 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.7% [5] Market and Product Development - The company is focusing on the development of large-scale wind turbine components, which are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce unit power costs [3] - The company has established a production capacity of 700,000 tons for casting and 420,000 tons for precision machining, allowing for flexible adjustments in production [2] - The company is expanding its market presence in high-end alloy steel and is actively developing large die-casting machines for the new energy vehicle sector [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit over the next three years, with projections of 784 million yuan in 2025, 912 million yuan in 2026, and 1.048 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the wind power equipment industry, driven by technological advancements and market expansion [3][4]