Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Counter-Cyclical Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Predict the macroeconomic environment using proxy variables and allocate assets that perform best under the predicted environment[26][31] - **Model Construction Process**: - Use proxy variables to forecast the macroeconomic environment (e.g., Inflation, Growth, etc.) - Allocate assets based on historical performance under the predicted environment - For Q3 2025, the model predicted an "Inflation" environment, leading to allocations in CSI 300, CSI 2000, Nanhua Commodity Index, and ChinaBond Total Wealth Index[26] - **Model Evaluation**: Provides a systematic approach to asset allocation based on macroeconomic conditions[26] 2. Model Name: Macro Momentum Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Constructed using multiple dimensions such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk sentiment to time asset classes like stocks and bonds[26] - **Model Construction Process**: - Incorporate macroeconomic indicators, positioning data, volume-price factors, and sentiment factors - Apply the model to time assets such as CSI 300, ChinaBond Total Wealth Index, and gold contracts (AU9999)[26] - **Model Evaluation**: Offers a multi-dimensional perspective for timing asset allocation[26] 3. Model Name: Multi-Factor Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, volume-price technicals, and macroeconomic factors to rotate among industries[27] - **Model Construction Process**: - Match ETFs with their corresponding CSI Level-1 industries - Use a pool of 23 industries to construct the benchmark - Allocate weights to ETFs based on the model's output[27][29] - **Model Evaluation**: Provides a structured approach to industry rotation, leveraging multiple factor dimensions[27] 4. Model Name: Absolute Return Strategies (Blended Models) - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine macro timing and industry rotation strategies with asset rebalancing to achieve absolute returns[31][37] - **Model Construction Process**: - Implement 20/80 stock-bond rebalancing and risk parity strategies - Enhance these strategies with macro timing and industry ETF rotation[31][37] - **Model Evaluation**: Enhances traditional rebalancing strategies with timing and rotation components for better returns[31][37] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Counter-Cyclical Allocation Model - CSI 300 Q3 2025 Return: 14.38%[26] - CSI 2000 Q3 2025 Return: 16.58%[26] - Nanhua Commodity Index Q3 2025 Return: 4.17%[26] - ChinaBond Total Wealth Index Q3 2025 Return: -1.08%[26] 2. Macro Momentum Model - CSI 300 September 2025 Return: 0.11%[26] - ChinaBond Total Wealth Index September 2025 Return: -0.31%[26] - AU9999 Gold Contract September 2025 Return: 5.72%[26] 3. Multi-Factor Industry Rotation Model - Weekly Return: 0.61% (Excess Return: 0.79% over Wind All A Index)[27][28] - Monthly Return (September 2025): 0.82% (Excess Return: 0.28% over Wind All A Index)[27][28] 4. Absolute Return Strategies (Blended Models) - **Macro Timing + 20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.10% - Monthly Return: -0.09% - YTD Return: 3.85% - Annualized Volatility: 3.38% - Max Drawdown: 1.78% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.61[32] - **Macro Timing + Risk Parity**: - Weekly Return: -0.01% - Monthly Return: -0.15% - YTD Return: 1.58% - Annualized Volatility: 1.75% - Max Drawdown: 1.50% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.27[32] - **Macro Timing + Industry ETF Rotation + 20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: 0.22% - Monthly Return: 0.21% - YTD Return: 7.83% - Annualized Volatility: 5.28% - Max Drawdown: 2.54% - Sharpe Ratio: 2.12[32] - **Macro Timing + Industry ETF Rotation + Risk Parity**: - Weekly Return: 0.11% - Monthly Return: -0.03% - YTD Return: 2.94% - Annualized Volatility: 2.18% - Max Drawdown: 1.45% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.90[32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: PB Earnings - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on price-to-book ratios and earnings growth to identify undervalued stocks with growth potential[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate PB ratios for stocks - Combine with earnings growth metrics to rank stocks[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Targets value-oriented opportunities with growth potential[39][41] 2. Factor Name: High Dividend Yield - **Factor Construction Idea**: Selects stocks with high dividend yields for stable income generation[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Rank stocks based on dividend yield - Adjust for payout sustainability metrics[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Suitable for income-focused strategies[39][41] 3. Factor Name: Small-Cap Value - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets small-cap stocks with low valuations for higher growth potential[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify small-cap stocks - Rank based on valuation metrics like P/E and P/B ratios[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the small-cap premium with a value tilt[39][41] 4. Factor Name: Small-Cap Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on small-cap stocks with high growth potential[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify small-cap stocks - Rank based on growth metrics like revenue and earnings growth rates[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Targets high-growth opportunities in the small-cap space[39][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. PB Earnings - **10/90 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.18% - Monthly Return: -0.04% - YTD Return: 2.49% - Annualized Volatility: 2.34% - Max Drawdown: 1.82% - Sharpe Ratio: -0.01[41] - **20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.39% - Monthly Return: -0.11% - YTD Return: 4.06% - Annualized Volatility: 4.71% - Max Drawdown: 3.79% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.19[41] 2. High Dividend Yield - **10/90 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.12% - Monthly Return: -0.09% - YTD Return: 1.91% - Annualized Volatility: 2.09% - Max Drawdown: 1.39% - Sharpe Ratio: -0.18[41] - **20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.28% - Monthly Return: -0.22% - YTD Return: 2.88% - Annualized Volatility: 4.19% - Max Drawdown: 3.47% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.05[41] 3. Small-Cap Value - **10/90 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.27% - Monthly Return: -0.07% - YTD Return: 5.35% - Annualized Volatility: 3.55% - Max Drawdown: 3.69% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.47[41] - **20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.57% - Monthly Return: -0.16% - YTD Return: 9.91% - Annualized Volatility: 7.14% - Max Drawdown: 7.74% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.60[41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yifeng Pharmacy with a target price of 36.00 CNY [6][13]. Core Views - The report highlights that the overall off-hospital pharmaceutical retail industry remains under pressure, but Yifeng Pharmacy, as a leading player in the pharmacy sector, maintains a steady operational rhythm and continues to enhance its profitability. There is optimism for a recovery in performance growth in the second half of the year [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 22,588 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 24,690 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 2.6% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,412 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 1,749 million CNY by 2025, which represents a growth of 14.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.16 CNY in 2023 to 1.44 CNY in 2025 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.4% in 2023, slightly increasing to 14.8% by 2025 [4]. Operational Insights - As of the first half of 2025, Yifeng Pharmacy operates 14,701 stores, with 10,681 being directly operated and 4,070 franchised. The pace of store expansion has slowed, with 81 new stores opened and 272 closed in the first half of the year [13]. - Retail business revenue for the first half of 2025 is reported at 101.99 billion CNY, showing a decline of 1.91% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved by 1.04 percentage points to 41.99% [13]. Product Performance - Revenue from traditional Chinese and Western medicine is reported at 88.99 billion CNY, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.24%. The gross margin for this segment increased by 0.77 percentage points to 35.62% [13]. - Non-pharmaceutical revenue has faced challenges, with a reported decline of 2.44% year-on-year [13].

Group 1: Fixed Income Research - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase auction method is essentially a continuation of previous policy thoughts, with limited incremental information being conveyed [3][17] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a strong continuity in its monetary policy approach, with the recent adjustments aimed at stabilizing liquidity rather than signaling a shift towards more accommodative policies [2][19] - The actual pricing ability of the 14-day reverse repurchase is limited, and it is likely to continue being used as an unconventional tool to address special periods such as holidays [4][18] Group 2: Construction Industry - In the 38th week of 2025, the issuance of new special bonds by local governments decreased by 25.8% compared to the previous week, with a total issuance of 978.2 billion yuan [8] - The financing net amount of urban investment bonds decreased year-on-year, indicating a contraction in funding for construction projects [8] - The construction site funding availability rate was reported at 59.39%, showing a slight week-on-week increase but a year-on-year decline of 3.13% [8] Group 3: Real Estate Market - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities increased by 7.7% week-on-week, while second-hand housing transaction area decreased by 4.2% [9] - The cumulative transaction area for new homes this year is down 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the real estate market [9] - Land supply in 100 cities decreased by 13.7% year-on-year, reflecting a contraction in the real estate development pipeline [9] Group 4: Company Analysis - China Power Construction Corporation signed new orders worth 800.79 billion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [11] - China Chemical Corporation's new orders for the same period were 256.34 billion yuan, showing a minimal year-on-year increase of 0.1% [11] - China Metallurgical Group Corporation's new orders decreased by 18.2% year-on-year, indicating challenges in securing new contracts [11] Group 5: Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi's revenue projections for FY2025E-FY2027E are maintained at 489.1 billion, 641.8 billion, and 758.4 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 45.4 billion, 68.1 billion, and 83.6 billion yuan [12] - The company is expected to exceed its annual delivery target of 350,000 vehicles, with stable delivery volumes above 30,000 units in July and August [13] - The air conditioning segment saw a significant increase in shipments, with over 5.4 million units sold in Q2 2025, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [14] Group 6: Industry Trends - The global wind power installation volume is expected to continue growing, with significant contributions from China, Europe, and North America [26] - The demand for wind turbine blade materials is anticipated to expand due to policy encouragement and declining costs [24] - The chemical raw materials manufacturing industry has a current static P/E ratio of 27.95, indicating a competitive valuation landscape [27]

Fund Issuance - Eight new ESG funds were launched this month, with a total issuance of 3.749 billion units, primarily focused on social responsibility and environmental protection[9] - A total of 251 ESG public funds were issued in the past year, with a total issuance of 175.353 billion units[9] - The total net asset value of existing ESG funds reached 1,029.312 billion RMB, with ESG strategy funds accounting for the largest share at 50.46%[11] Market Performance - During the week of September 15-19, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.44%, while the ESG 300 index rose by 0.39%[5] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.52 trillion RMB, indicating a loosening of liquidity[5] Green Bonds - A total of 43 new green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets last week, with a planned issuance scale of approximately 34.468 billion RMB[16] - In September 2025, 120 ESG bonds were issued, amounting to 54.2 billion RMB, with a total of 1,095 ESG bonds issued in the past year, totaling 1,189.9 billion RMB[16] Bank Wealth Management Products - 67 ESG bank wealth management products were issued this month, with a total of 1,102 existing products in the market[22] - Pure ESG products accounted for the largest share at 55.99% among existing ESG bank wealth management products[22] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support for ESG initiatives, lack of unified data reporting standards, and lower-than-expected product issuance scales[25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in carbon capture technology and the establishment of international standards, indicating a shift towards more structured and regulated practices in the industry [16] - The continuous release of the "China Carbon Neutral Development Index" over five years reflects the ongoing transformation in the economy and society under the dual carbon strategy, providing a reference for future planning [21] - The establishment of a carbon footprint management system in Jilin Province aims to enhance product competitiveness and align with international carbon trade policies [12] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Action Plan (2025-2027)", aiming for a new energy storage capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with an investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [7][8] - Jilin Province's plan includes establishing carbon footprint accounting rules for key products by 2027, promoting carbon footprint certification and management [12] Industry Trends - The first international standard for carbon capture in China has been published, providing a unified technical guideline for the development and application of carbon capture materials [16] - The "2025 China Carbon Neutral Development Index" indicates a shift from single emission reduction to a more integrated approach, emphasizing environmental governance and green finance [21][22] International Events - The World Meteorological Organization warns of increasing disruptions in global water cycles, highlighting the urgency of addressing climate change [24] - The United Nations' Marine Biodiversity Agreement will come into effect in 2026, aiming to protect marine biodiversity in international waters [25] Corporate Developments - Industrial Bank's Xiamen branch has launched the first ESG-linked financing lease loan in Fujian Province, promoting sustainable development in the financial sector [28][29] - Rongsheng Petrochemical has been recognized as an ESG demonstration case, reflecting its commitment to sustainable practices and significant achievements in environmental, social, and governance areas [30][31]

Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) decreased by 14.71% to 27.244 billion yuan, falling below 30 billion yuan[7] - The trading volume on the BSE accounted for 1.08% of the total market, down from 1.38% the previous week[12] - The average turnover rate for BSE stocks was 28.41%[8] Index Performance - The BSE 50 Index experienced a decline of 1.43% during the week, following a record high the previous week[12] - Other major indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% while the BSE 50 Index fell[12] Sector Analysis - Among 24 sectors, only 4 sectors had a positive median return, with the environmental protection sector leading at 6.08%[18] - The construction materials sector had the largest median decline at -6.65%[18] - The computer sector had the highest median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 146.10 times, indicating high valuation compared to other sectors[18] New Listings and IPOs - Two new stocks were offered for subscription, and one stock was listed during the week[35] - The newly listed stock, Shichang Co., saw a first-day average price increase of 304.65% compared to its issue price[35] New Third Board Activity - The trading volume on the New Third Board increased by 33.83%, with the innovative tier and basic tier seeing transaction amounts of 1.963 billion yuan and 380 million yuan, respectively[31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that Xiaomi's automotive deliveries are stable, its major appliances maintain competitive advantages, and the upcoming smartphone releases may serve as significant catalysts for growth [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 270,971 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 758,393 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.2% [5]. - Gross profit is expected to grow from RMB 57,477 million in 2023 to RMB 188,736 million in 2027, with gross margin improving from 21.2% to 24.9% over the same period [5]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise significantly from RMB 19,273 million in 2023 to RMB 83,643 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. Automotive Segment - Xiaomi's automotive deliveries have consistently exceeded 30,000 units in July and August, positioning the company to potentially surpass its annual target of 350,000 deliveries for 2025 [11]. - The second-phase factory is expected to ramp up production faster than the first phase due to accumulated supply chain and production experience [11]. Home Appliances Segment - The air conditioning segment has seen a significant increase, with shipments exceeding 5.4 million units in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 60% [11]. - The new Wuhan factory is anticipated to enhance Xiaomi's competitive edge in the major appliances market [11]. Smartphone Segment - The upcoming launch of the Xiaomi 17 Pro and ProMax is expected to be a key catalyst, with pre-orders reportedly doubling compared to the previous generation [11]. - The report suggests that the new smartphone releases could lead to improved revenue and gross margin performance in Q4 [11].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that "care" in monetary policy does not necessarily equate to interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts do not always lead to increased debt issuance [5][17] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo to a "multiple price bidding" format is seen as a continuation of previous monetary policy strategies, with limited incremental information being conveyed [6][10] - The central bank's recent actions indicate a strong continuity in monetary policy, with the 14-day reverse repo being used primarily as a tool to manage liquidity around holidays rather than signaling a shift towards looser monetary policy [5][10][17] Group 2 - The 14-day reverse repo is expected to have limited actual impact on the bond market, serving mainly as a tool for addressing liquidity needs during specific periods such as holidays [10][14] - The report notes that the actual weighted bidding rate for the 14-day reverse repo is likely to decline, but its influence on the central funding rates and the bond market remains limited due to its non-mainstream status [14][16] - The central bank's liquidity management strategy has been focused on maintaining a balance between inflows and outflows, with the aim of stabilizing funding fluctuations [9][16] Group 3 - Despite the central bank's current supportive stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [17][19] - The report suggests that unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts within the year remains low [17][19] - The logic behind government bond trading is similar, with a low necessity to restart government bond purchases unless there is a significant downturn in the bond market [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," with high passenger load factors and improving supply-demand dynamics. If business travel demand proves sustainable, a significant upward shift in profitability is anticipated by 2026, indicating dual potential for performance and valuation [3][4]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The Chinese aviation industry has entered a low growth phase in supply, with constraints in airspace slots becoming more pronounced. Airlines are expected to maintain a conservative capital expenditure approach due to low expected returns on new aircraft investments. The "anti-involution" trend is likely to support a low growth trajectory for fleet planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]. Demand Side - Aviation consumption in China is still in its early stages, characterized by low frequency and penetration. The demographic dividend from the aviation population has not yet peaked, suggesting a stable long-term growth trend despite short-term demand fluctuations. The summer peak season saw business travel unexpectedly weaken, but profitability is still projected to exceed that of 2019 [4][10]. Q3 and Q4 Outlook - For Q3, despite the unexpected weakness in business travel, profitability is expected to remain above 2019 levels, driven by a recovery in demand post-September events. The report anticipates a record high in business travel demand in September, with domestic ticket prices turning positive year-on-year [4][31]. - In Q4, the report highlights the importance of observing the sustainability of business travel recovery, especially after significant events in October. The optimistic outlook for the National Day holiday suggests strong travel demand, with airlines expected to manage pricing effectively [4][5]. Recommendations - The report recommends an "Overweight" position in the aviation sector, particularly favoring airlines with high-quality networks such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines. The anticipated "super cycle" in aviation is expected to provide significant performance and valuation opportunities in the coming years [4][34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the new materials industry Core Insights - The new materials industry is witnessing significant developments, including the expansion of production capacities and successful financing rounds for innovative companies [1][3][4] - The introduction of anti-dumping measures by the US against Chinese MDI imports indicates potential market disruptions and pricing pressures [2] Summary by Sections Industry Development Dynamics - Jiuzhou Star Technology has added 12,000 tons of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber capacity, with plans to increase production to 20,000 tons by the end of 2026 and potentially expand to 40,000 tons in the future [1] - The company aims to capture the civilian market and enhance the potential of "fiber intelligence manufacturing" [1] Investment and Financing Dynamics - Plastic New Technology completed several million yuan in pre-A round financing, focusing on building a 10,000-ton bioenzyme-based recycled PET production line, with expectations to achieve cost parity with virgin PET within three to five years [3] - Qingyun New Materials secured hundreds of millions in C round financing to support the development of next-generation Kunlun super materials and global capacity expansion, maintaining a market share exceeding 33% [4]