股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.23 5 月游戏版号发布，《异环》等产品获批 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 陈筱(分析师) | 杨昊(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515040003 | S0880524020001 | 本报告导读： 5 月版号发放再创新高，腾讯、网易、恺英、完美等均有产品获批，《异环》《命运： 群星》等重磅产品获批，利好后续上线推进。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 行业跟踪报告 表1：推荐公司盈利预测与估值情况表 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | 市值 | | EPS（元） | | | PE | | - | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （亿元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure in Q1 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a projected mid-single-digit decline in revenue and stable profit margins in Q2. However, revenue growth in India has turned positive, and TUMI is experiencing strong growth in Europe and China [3][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from $3,589 million in 2024 to $3,367 million in 2025, representing a -6% change. By 2026, revenue is expected to recover to $3,506 million, followed by $3,671 million in 2027 [9]. - Gross profit is forecasted to decrease from $2,152 million in 2024 to $2,003 million in 2025, with a slight recovery to $2,089 million in 2026 and $2,194 million in 2027 [9]. - Net profit is expected to drop significantly from $346 million in 2024 to $254 million in 2025, with a gradual increase to $289 million in 2026 and $345 million in 2027 [9]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 15x for 2025, translating to a target price of HKD 20.29 per share based on a USD to HKD exchange rate of 7.8 [10]. Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue changes by region were as follows: Asia -7%, North America -8%, Europe +4.4%, and Latin America 0%. Notably, North America experienced a decline of -5.2% when excluding the impact of early shipments [10]. - TUMI's revenue in Europe and China showed resilience, with growth rates of 11.1% and 10.9% respectively, driven by new store openings [10]. Valuation and Comparison - The report includes a comparison of the company's valuation with peers, indicating a PE of 7.8 for the company in 2025, which is competitive compared to other luxury brands [11].

业 跟 Google 2025 I/O 大会上 AI 成为最核心主基调，其核心业务：搜索最终全面拥抱 AI， 此外谷歌也明确 2C Agent 战略，2C Agent 发展有望迎来新机遇。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 行 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.22 国泰海通 AI 跟踪：谷歌全面升级 AI"全 家桶"，首次明确 2C Agent 战略 [Table_Industry] 计算机 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [table_Authors] 杨林(分析师) 杨昊翊(分析师) 魏宗(分析师) 021-38676666 021-38676666 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040027 S0880525040126 S0880525040058 本报告导读： 踪 报 告 究 报 行业跟踪报告 本公司具有中国证监会核准的证券投资咨询业务资格 分析师声明 告 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：我们认为，谷歌此次带来了 AI 的全面升级，除了基础模 型的升级外，谷歌也革命性将 AI 融入进了搜索这一最 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or company Core Insights - Huawei is positioned as a supplier of incremental components for intelligent connected vehicles, leveraging its full-stack capabilities to drive innovation in the automotive industry [1][6][11] - The company has established three collaboration models with automakers: Hongmeng Intelligent Driving, HI model, and traditional parts supply, enhancing its integration within the automotive ecosystem [14][15][17] - Huawei's automotive business unit (BU) has become independent and achieved profitability in the first half of 2024, indicating a successful transition from a research lab to a standalone entity [29][34] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - Huawei's full-stack intelligence is expected to lead the transformation of the automotive industry, focusing on smart driving, smart cockpit, and smart control [6][42] - The company has a unique position in the market due to its extensive experience in ICT and continuous high R&D investment [6][44] 2. Positioning as a Supplier - Since entering the automotive sector in 2013, Huawei has evolved from providing communication modules to becoming a key supplier of smart components, focusing on intelligent driving and cockpit technologies [11][12] - The establishment of the intelligent automotive solutions BU in 2019 marked a strategic shift towards becoming an incremental component supplier without manufacturing vehicles [29][34] 3. Collaboration Models - Huawei collaborates with automakers through three main models: - **Hongmeng Intelligent Driving**: Deep involvement in product definition and sales channels [14][17] - **HI Model**: Provides integrated solutions while collaborating on vehicle development [14][15] - **Parts Supply Model**: Supplies standardized components to automakers [15][16] 4. Financial Performance - The automotive BU's revenue has shown significant growth, with projections indicating a revenue of 263.53 billion yuan in 2024, and a turnaround from losses to a profit of 22.31 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [34][37] 5. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that Huawei's full-stack intelligence will be a critical advantage in the future development of the automotive industry, with increasing collaboration with various automakers [6][5][17]

- The report focuses on the performance of Smart Beta portfolios, specifically Value, Growth, and Small-cap styles, constructed based on high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns objectives[7][8][10] - Value Smart Beta portfolios include "Value 50 Portfolio" and "Value Balanced 50 Portfolio", with weekly returns of 1.13% and 0.32%, respectively, and annual returns of 5.80% and 1.55%[4][8][10] - Growth Smart Beta portfolios include "Growth 50 Portfolio" and "Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio", with weekly returns of 1.27% and 1.59%, respectively, and annual returns of 0.86% and 6.05%[4][8][16] - Small-cap Smart Beta portfolios include "Small-cap 50 Portfolio" and "Small-cap Balanced 50 Portfolio", with weekly returns of 1.39% and 1.49%, respectively, and annual returns of 8.87% and 10.70%[4][8][22] - Performance metrics for Smart Beta portfolios include absolute returns, excess returns relative to benchmarks, and maximum relative drawdowns, with detailed data provided for each portfolio[8][10][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Malaysia is leading the deployment of Ascend GPUs, enhancing national AI sovereignty through localized deployment of large language models like Deepseek [3] - The continuous iteration of domestic computing power hardware and software architecture is expected to accelerate overseas market expansion [4] - The performance of Ascend 910C single card is approximately 780 TFLOPS, nearing 80% of H100's performance, indicating a significant upgrade in domestic computing power competitiveness [4] - The CloudMatrix 384 super node achieves single card decode throughput of 1920 tokens/s, comparable to H100 performance [4] - The report highlights the potential for accelerated overseas expansion of domestic chips, supported by the Malaysian government's AI infrastructure strategy [4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include SMIC, Huafeng Technology, Xingsen Technology, and Chipone Technology, with a focus on their competitive positioning in the market [4][5] - Related stocks mentioned are Nanya Technology and Liyang Chip [4] Market Developments - The Malaysian government is advancing its AI infrastructure strategy, with the first sovereign generative AI server, AlterMatic DT250AI, outperforming industry averages by 20% [4] - Skyvast and Liyang Chip plan to deploy 3,000 advanced GPUs in various infrastructure areas by 2026 [4] Performance Metrics - The report provides estimated EPS and PE ratios for recommended stocks, indicating growth potential and investment attractiveness [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for the military industry, with specific companies recommended for investment, including 中航沈飞, 航天南湖, and 中航西飞, among others [12][9]. Core Viewpoints - The intensification of great power competition is seen as a long-term trend, leading to increased defense spending and a favorable outlook for the military industry. The report emphasizes the need for enhanced national defense capabilities to ensure peace and security [9][3]. - Recent successful satellite launches by China, including the communication technology test satellite and the space computing satellite constellation, highlight advancements in aerospace capabilities [28][11]. - The report notes that the defense industry index has underperformed the broader market, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific sectors [15][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Key investment areas include: 1. Assembly: 中航沈飞, 航天南湖, 中航西飞 2. Components: 中航光电, 航天电器, 国博电子 3. Subsystems: 中航机载, 北方导航 4. Materials and Processing: 抚顺特钢, 中航重机, 菲利华, 光威复材, 图南股份, 华秦科技, 铂力特, 西部材料 [12][4]. Market Review - The defense industry index fell by 1.61%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index, which increased by 1.38%. The defense sector ranked last among 29 sectors [15][16]. - Ground weaponry and aviation sectors performed relatively well during the same period [20][22]. Major News in the Military Industry - Domestic news includes the successful launch of the communication technology test satellite and the space computing satellite constellation, showcasing China's advancements in satellite technology [28][11]. - International developments include the U.S. State Department's approval of a $1.4 billion arms sale to the UAE and President Trump's announcement of the development of the F-55 fighter jet, indicating ongoing military advancements and collaborations [38][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The carbon quota trading prices in the European and American carbon markets decreased last week, while the KAU24 spot price in the South Korean market increased. The trading volumes in the American and South Korean carbon markets rose, and the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market in China increased significantly. The weekly trading volume in domestic pilot carbon markets also increased [2]. - Two important events occurred in the field of international green development cooperation: China and CELAC reached a cooperation plan, and RE100 unconditionally recognized Chinese green certificates, which shows China's continuous improvement in green rule - guiding ability and technology export capacity [2]. Summary by Directory 1. International Carbon Trading Market Tracking 1.1 European Carbon Quota Price and Volume - EUA spot price dropped from 72.31 euros/ton on May 12 to 69.94 euros/ton on May 16, a weekly decline of 3.28%. The trading volume was 7.1 tons last week, a 44.96% decrease from the previous week. EUA futures price fell from 73.41 euros/ton to 70.99 euros/ton, a 3.3% decline, and the trading volume was 279.1 tons, a 35.94% decrease [6]. 1.2 American Carbon Quota Price and Volume - EUA futures price decreased from 73.41 euros/ton on May 12 to 70.99 euros/ton on May 16, a 3.3% weekly decline. The total trading volume of EUA futures was 180.02 million tons, a 15.03% increase from the previous week. UKA futures price dropped from 52.71 pounds/ton to 48.36 pounds/ton, an 8.25% decline [10]. 1.3 South Korean Carbon Quota Price and Volume - KAU24 spot price rose from 8810 won/ton on May 12 to 8910 won/ton on May 16, a 1.14% weekly increase. The trading volume was 47.48 tons, a 107.79% increase from the previous week [16]. 2. Domestic Carbon Market Tracking 2.1 National Carbon Market Carbon Quota Volume and Average Transaction Price - The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) in the national carbon market last week was 3.672 million tons, and the cumulative transaction amount was 265.7224 million yuan, with increases of 212.14% and 222.83% respectively from the previous week. As of May 16, the average daily transaction price of CEA last week was 71.16 yuan/ton, a 1.71% increase [19]. 2.2 Weekly Average Transaction Price of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets - Except for Guangdong Province, the weekly average transaction prices of carbon quotas in domestic pilot carbon markets showed a downward trend last week, with the largest decline of 5.66% in Fujian's FJEA. Compared with the same period last month, except for Beijing, Tianjin, Hubei, and Shenzhen, the prices in other pilot markets declined, with the largest decline of 28.69% in Chongqing's CQEA [23]. 2.3 Carbon Quota Volume and Transaction Amount in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets - The carbon quota trading in domestic pilot carbon markets last week was mainly concentrated in Chongqing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Shanghai, accounting for 96.47% of the total weekly trading volume and 94.90% of the total weekly transaction amount. The total weekly trading volume in domestic pilot carbon markets was 181,600 tons, a 71.19% increase from the previous week [25]. 3. Double - Carbon Frontier Technology Tracking 3.1 China - CELAC Cooperation Plan: Exploring Cooperation and Investment Opportunities in Energy Transition and Advanced Energy Storage Technology - On May 13, China and CELAC jointly formulated a cooperation plan (2025 - 2027), emphasizing cooperation and investment opportunities in energy transition and advanced energy storage technology to promote green and low - carbon energy transformation [28]. 3.2 RE100 Announces Unconditional Recognition of Chinese Green Certificates - Recently, RE100 announced unconditional recognition of Chinese green certificates. This is a major achievement of China's green certificate system improvement, which will boost confidence in Chinese green certificate consumption, expand demand, and enhance the green competitiveness of Chinese enterprises [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 5.20 CNY [6][12]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining electricity prices and impairment losses, but the sale of hydropower assets in 2025 is expected to reverse the performance trend. As a leader in green electricity, the company has a solid foundation for sustained growth due to ample project reserves [2][12]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 26,502 million CNY - 2024A: 29,717 million CNY (YOY +12.1%) - 2025E: 34,772 million CNY (YOY +17.0%) - 2026E: 37,586 million CNY (YOY +8.1%) - 2027E: 40,302 million CNY (YOY +7.2%) [4][13] - **Net Profit (attributable to parent)**: - 2023A: 7,174 million CNY - 2024A: 6,111 million CNY (YOY -14.8%) - 2025E: 7,523 million CNY (YOY +23.1%) - 2026E: 7,456 million CNY (YOY -0.9%) - 2027E: 7,782 million CNY (YOY +4.4%) [4][13] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.25 CNY - 2024A: 0.21 CNY - 2025E: 0.26 CNY - 2026E: 0.26 CNY - 2027E: 0.27 CNY [4][12] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 8.7% - 2024A: 7.0% - 2025E: 8.2% - 2026E: 7.7% - 2027E: 7.6% [4][13] Market Data - **Current Price**: 4.40 CNY - **Market Capitalization**: 125,922 million CNY - **52-week Price Range**: 4.05 - 4.93 CNY [7][12] Project Reserves - As of the end of 2024, the company has 16.44 GW of projects under construction, including 4.87 GW of wind power, 7.45 GW of solar power, and 3.60 GW of pumped storage. The company has also approved or filed for a total of 12.20 GW of new installations in 2024, indicating a strong foundation for future growth [12][13].

Economic Resilience - In April, despite external shocks, the domestic economy showed resilience with production and consumption growth rates at 6.1% and 5.1% respectively[4] - The easing of tariffs in May is expected to lead to a short-term recovery in external demand, benefiting domestic production and investment[4] Production Insights - Industrial added value grew by 6.1% year-on-year in April, a slight decrease from 7.7% in March, but still maintaining a high growth rate[8] - Emerging industries such as power generation equipment and industrial robots continue to show strong performance, with some sectors exceeding 100% year-on-year growth[11] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in April was 5.1%, with a decline from March's figures, indicating a mixed performance across different categories[19] - Categories benefiting from government policies, such as home appliances, saw growth rates above 25%, while sectors like automobiles faced challenges due to high base effects[21] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth for January to April was 4.0%, with April's growth at 3.6%, reflecting a slight decline from March[24] - Real estate investment continued to drag on the economy, with a year-on-year decline of 11.3% in April[24] Risk Factors - Increased uncertainty in external demand poses risks to the economic outlook, necessitating continued policy support for domestic demand[30]