2025 年 05 月 06 日 中际联合(605305.SH) 利润如期释放，继续看好全年业绩弹性 事件：中际联合发布 2025 年一季报，公司实现营业总收入 3.17 亿元，同比+31.71%；归母净利润 0.99 亿元，同比+68.78%，净利 润规模创单季新高，业绩实现高速增长。 订单持续兑现，收入增长确定性较强。2024 年，公司新签订单 同比增长约 35%，营业收入同比+17.58%；2025 年一季度，公司新 签订单同比增长约 50%，营业收入同比+31.71%，其中出口收入占 比 55%，国际化进展进一步突破。得益于国内外风电β景气共振， 以及公司针对海外市场、应用场景的持续开拓，公司高空升降设 备产品需求保持旺盛，订单的持续旺盛为收入向上增长提供较强 确定性。 降本控费成效显著，盈利能力接近历史高位。2025 年一季度， 公司毛利率、净利率 48.64%、31.1%，同比+3.93pct、+6.83pct， 共同驱动公司盈利能力显著提升。毛利率端，得益于大载荷、齿 轮齿条升降机等高附加值产品占比提升以及海外市场持续开拓， 公司收入结构持续优化，驱动毛利率提升显著；净利率端，公司 采购、交付、 ...

降本控费成效兑现，利润弹性强劲释放。2025 年 Q1，公司毛利 率、净利率 26.84%、11.89%，同比+0.004pct、+2.7pct，净利率 为 2021 年 Q4 以来单季高点，公司盈利能力提升显著的主要贡献 因素是费用控制。公司期间费用合计 12.64%，同比-5.68pct，销 售、管理、研发、财务费用率同比-0.06pct、-0.74pct、-2.26pct、 -2.62pct，四者均成下降趋势，其中财务控费、汇兑收益相对突 出；净利率增幅不及控费降幅主要系公允价值变动与资产减值损 失有所对冲。公司收入向好带来规模化效益背景下，我们持续看 好公司全年业绩的弹性释放。 投资建议：我们预计公司 2025-2027 年的收入分别为 902.8、 1060、1253.5 亿元，增速分别为 15.2%、17.4%、18.3%；净利润 分别为 85.1、111.1、138.2 亿元，增速分别为 42.3%、30.7%、 24.4%；对应 PE 分别为 18.8X、14.4X、11.6X。周期上行龙头受 益；同时公司凭借领先的国际化布局，全球竞争力有望持续提升； 业绩弹性显著，长期价值突出。给予"买入- ...

2025 年 05 月 06 日 索辰科技(688507.SH) 收入稳健增长，物理 AI+外延并购打开 全新成长空间 工程仿真软件业务是支撑公司报告期业绩增长的主要动力 分业务来看，2024 年公司通用工程仿真软件产品实现营收 2.28亿元， 同比增长 21.72%，毛利率为 96.39%，同比提升 1.28 个百分点，是公 司 2024 年业绩增长的主要支撑。定制化仿真产品开发业务实现营收 1.37 亿元，同比增长 4.56%，毛利率为 33.21%，同比下降 0.01 个百 分点。技术服务业务实现营收 0.11 亿元，同比增长 3,150.08%，毛 利率为 56.92%，同比提升 12.02 个百分点；技术服务业务增速较快， 主要因 2023 年 11 月收购阳普智能、2024 年 9 月收购富迪广通，技 术服务收入增加所致。 期间费用率控制良好，收并购中介费增加导致管理费增幅较大 公司期间费用率整体控制良好，2024 年销售费用率为 6.44%，同比增 加 0.11 个百分点；2025Q1 为 15.73%，同比下降 3.86 个百分点。2024 年管理费用率为 17.95%，同比增加 6.10 个 ...

2025 年 05 月 06 日 鼎捷数智(300378.SZ) 以雅典娜平台和 AI Agent 产品拥抱数智化时代 事件概述 近日，鼎捷数智发布《2024 年年度报告》和《2025 年一季度报告》。 2024 年，公司实现营业总收入 23.31 亿元，同比增长 4.62%；归母净 利润 1.56 亿元，同比增长 3.59%；扣非归母净利润 1.38 亿元，同比 增长 13.18%。2025 年 Q1 公司实现营收 4.23 亿元，同比增长 4.33%， 归母净利润-833.31 万元，同比增长 14.04%；扣非归母净利润-951.55 万元，同比增长 31.92%。 | 基础软件及管理办公软件 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 买入-A 维持评级 | | 6 个月目标价 | 44.50 元 | | 股价 (2025-04-30) | 37.85 元 | | 交易数据 | | | 总市值(百万元) | 10,272.22 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 10,196.05 | | 总股本(百万股) | 271.39 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 269.38 | | 12 个月价格区 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 46.86 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company has shown a steady increase in revenue and profit, with a notable growth in high-end product sales, which accounted for 29% of revenue in Q1 2025, up from 24% in 2024 [2][3]. - High-end products have seen significant growth in both volume and price, with Q1 2025 revenue from high-end products increasing by 86.60% year-on-year, and sales of products priced above 50,000 CNY growing by 89.93% [2][3]. - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 1.08 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 26% increase year-on-year, and a R&D expense ratio of 21.81% [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 497.4 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.93%, while the net profit decreased by 27.79% to 112.1 million CNY [1][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 132 million CNY, a 26.93% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 41 million CNY, up 33.96% [1]. - The company forecasts revenue growth to 603.7 million CNY in 2025, with a projected net profit of 149 million CNY [9]. Product Development - The company has launched 10 new products in 2024, including high-end digital oscilloscopes and signal generators, which are expected to drive further revenue growth [3]. - The continuous introduction of high-end products is a key factor supporting the company's stable performance [3]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of general electronic testing and measurement instruments in China, with a strong focus on high-end product development [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - B" for the construction industry [4]. Core Insights - The construction industry is currently under pressure, with revenue and net profit declining year-on-year. However, there are expectations for policy support and investment increases, particularly in infrastructure, which may improve the industry's fundamentals [17][18]. - The report highlights the potential for significant investment demand driven by urbanization and infrastructure upgrades, estimating a need for approximately 4 trillion yuan in investment over the next five years for urban underground pipeline renovations [16]. - The report suggests focusing on traditional state-owned enterprises in construction, which are currently undervalued and may benefit from improved financial metrics and increased infrastructure spending [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics Analysis - The construction sector is facing operational challenges in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit both experiencing year-on-year declines of 3.89% and 15.98% respectively in 2024, and 6.27% and 8.54% in Q1 2025 [17][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key support for economic growth amid external pressures such as tariffs from the U.S. [17]. Market Performance - The construction and decoration industry saw a decline of 1.26% in the week from April 28 to April 30, underperforming compared to major indices [46]. - The report notes that while the overall industry is struggling, certain segments like landscaping engineering have shown positive performance [46]. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of major order announcements from companies within the industry, indicating ongoing activity despite the challenging environment [58]. Key Focus Stocks - The report identifies several key stocks to watch, including major state-owned construction firms and companies involved in infrastructure design and international engineering services, which are expected to benefit from increased investment and policy support [11][12][57].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.08 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 7.81 CNY as of April 30, 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was 256.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%, primarily due to weak demand in traditional business sectors. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.15 billion CNY, down 14.51% year-on-year, with a decline in gross margin contributing to the profit drop [2][3]. - Despite the revenue and profit decline, the company has a solid order backlog of 7.86 trillion CNY, approximately 7.4 times its 2024 revenue, indicating a strong foundation for future revenue growth [2]. - The company signed new contracts worth 492.84 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in overseas contracts by 30.10% year-on-year, while domestic contracts decreased by 13.17% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a gross margin decline of 0.28 percentage points, leading to a sales net profit margin of 2.38%, down 0.20 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow improved, with a net outflow of 38.95 billion CNY, which is 7.65 billion CNY less than the previous year [2][3]. Order and Contract Activity - The new contract value in Q1 2025 was 492.84 billion CNY, with domestic contracts at 448.68 billion CNY and overseas contracts at 44.16 billion CNY. The growth in the green environmental sector and railway engineering contracts was particularly strong, with increases of 77.05% and 66.25% year-on-year, respectively [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.08 trillion CNY, 1.10 trillion CNY, and 1.11 trillion CNY, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 1.50%, 1.30%, and 1.30%. The net profit forecasts for the same period are 22.47 billion CNY, 22.73 billion CNY, and 22.99 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 1.15% each year [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy-A" with a target price of 6.31 CNY over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the bank's revenue in Q1 2025 decreased by 0.07% year-on-year, while the pre-provision profit grew by 6.20%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 2.62% year-on-year. The main drivers for performance were the expansion of interest-earning assets and cost reduction, while narrowing net interest margins and increased provisioning negatively impacted growth [1][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, Postal Savings Bank's total assets grew by 8.31% year-on-year, with total loans increasing by 9.78% and financial investments by 9.45%. The bank added 604.5 billion CNY in total assets and 443 billion CNY in loans during the quarter [1]. - The bank's net interest margin for Q1 2025 was measured at 1.71%, down 21 basis points year-on-year and 10 basis points quarter-on-quarter, but still remains competitive within the industry [4][9]. - Non-interest income increased by 14.83% year-on-year, with net fees growing by 8.76% and investment income rising by 21.70% [10]. Loan Growth - Corporate loans saw a significant increase of 15.17% year-on-year, with a quarterly addition of 362 billion CNY, leading among major banks [2]. - Retail loans grew by 4.27% year-on-year, with a quarterly addition of 678 billion CNY, although this was a decrease compared to previous quarters [2]. Deposit Growth - Total deposits increased by 9.22% year-on-year, with corporate and retail deposits growing by 20.46% and 7.94% respectively. The bank focused on low-cost self-operated deposits, adding 141.7 billion CNY in corporate deposits during the quarter [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.91% at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable. The provision coverage ratio was 266.13%, indicating a solid buffer against potential loan losses [10][11]. Future Outlook - The bank plans to enhance support for key sectors such as new productivity and inclusive small and micro enterprises, while also increasing consumer loan offerings in response to policy opportunities. The cost advantage on the liability side, combined with adjustments in agency fee rates, is expected to support performance [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chengdu Bank is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 18.87 CNY over the next six months [4]. Core Views - Chengdu Bank has demonstrated robust growth in both asset scale and performance, with a revenue growth rate of 5.89% for 2024 and a net profit growth rate of 10.17% [1][9]. - The bank's performance is primarily driven by the expansion of interest-earning assets, although net interest margin compression has been a significant drag on growth in early 2025 [1][8]. - The bank is expected to maintain a stable performance due to its strong asset quality and sufficient provisioning, with projected revenue growth of 8.17% and profit growth of 9.25% for 2025 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Chengdu Bank's total assets grew by 14.56% year-on-year by the end of 2024, with a quarterly increase of 285 billion CNY, while loans increased by 18.76% year-on-year [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, total assets increased by 13.25% year-on-year, with loans contributing significantly to this growth [1][2]. Loan Growth - Corporate loans showed steady growth, with balances increasing by 20.31% year-on-year by the end of 2024 and 17.69% year-on-year by the end of Q1 2025 [2]. - Retail loans also performed well, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.46% and 13.37% for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [3]. Asset Quality - Chengdu Bank maintained a low non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.66% at the end of both 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating strong asset quality [9][10]. - The bank's provisioning coverage ratio was robust at 479.29% by the end of 2024 and 456.00% by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting its strong risk mitigation capabilities [9][10]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income showed a significant increase of 24.11% year-on-year in Q4 2024, primarily driven by investment income, although fee income declined [9][10]. Interest Margin - The net interest margin for 2024 was stable at 1.66%, but a significant decline is expected in Q1 2025 due to the impact of interest rate adjustments [8][9]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to continue focusing on government-related financing while also responding to policy calls to enhance industrial demand and increase technology and green loan offerings in 2025 [2][9].

2025 年 05 月 05 日 招商银行(600036.SH) 事件：招商银行公布 2025 年一季报，营收同比增长-3.09%，拨 备前利润同比增长-4%，归母净利润同比增长-2.08%，各项业绩指 标增速较 2024 年报均略有下行，与 2024 年一季报情景较为类 似，我们点评如下： 招商银行 2025 年一季度业绩增长主要依靠规模扩张所驱动，而 净息差同比收窄、非息收入增长放缓则对利润增长形成拖累。 规模扩张速度与去年四季度大致相当。今年一季度，招商银行 生息资产（日均余额口径）同比增长 8.7%，较 2024Q4 增速基本 持平，仍处于去年初以来较快增长阶段，其中信贷增速基本平稳， 信贷扩张节奏仍偏低，而金融投资增速较 2024Q4 提升约 2 个百 分点，同业类资产增速略有放缓。从单季度新增生息资产规模（日 均余额口径）来看，今年 Q1 新增生息资产 1766 亿元，同比多增 84 亿元，其中新增信贷同比多增 62 亿元，而新增金融投资同比 多增 595 亿元。资产配置结构显示，当前有效信贷需求不足是资 产投放的核心矛盾。 进一步观察信贷结构，我们以招商银行本公司口径的期末时点数据进 行分析，一 ...