Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [5]. Core Views - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of key economic data, increasing uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has declined for three consecutive months, indicating growing public concern about the economic outlook, with inflation expectations remaining high at 4.6% [2]. - Market sentiment has shifted positively due to comments from former President Trump regarding U.S.-China trade relations, despite ongoing government shutdown concerns [2]. - The report suggests that in the context of "tariff disruptions and a dovish Fed," U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a recommendation to focus on medium to short-term U.S. Treasuries [3]. Summary by Sections U.S. Macroeconomics and Liquidity - The government shutdown has resulted in the suspension of key economic data releases, creating a "data vacuum" that complicates economic assessments and policy decisions [1]. - The consumer confidence index reflects a significant drop, indicating heightened economic anxiety among consumers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining a core allocation in medium to short-term U.S. Treasuries to lock in yields and reduce volatility, with a potential extension to five years for higher-risk investors [3]. - Investment-grade credit bonds are recommended, particularly in technology and consumer staples sectors, while high-yield bonds should have controlled durations [3]. - Chinese dollar bonds are highlighted for their credit improvement and spread advantages, with a focus on "high quality and short duration" strategies [3]. Key Events and Data - Future attention should be directed towards the upcoming U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4][5] Core Views - The automotive industry is transitioning into a technological era, with electric, intelligent, and connected vehicles driving growth. The report emphasizes the importance of energy flow applications in electrification and data flow applications in intelligence [14][15] - The report highlights the rise of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends [4][25] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 2% for the overall automotive market in China over the next 20 years, with significant growth in the new energy vehicle segment [15][22] Monthly Sales and Market Performance - In September, the narrow passenger car market is expected to see a retail sales volume of approximately 2.15 million units, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [1][10] - The automotive sector's performance in September showed a 6.38% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points [2][10] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC Motors for strong new product cycles [4][5] - Companies in the intelligent sector such as Coboda, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics [4] - Robotics companies like Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [4] - Domestic replacement companies including Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and Jifeng [4] Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Profit forecasts for key companies indicate that Leap Motor is expected to have an EPS of 0.62 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 107 [5] - Geely is projected to have an EPS of 1.57 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13 [5] - JAC Motors is expected to have a significantly high PE ratio of 478 in 2025, reflecting its growth potential [5] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report notes that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 38% in 2024, with sales of new energy passenger vehicles projected to exceed 1.55 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 25% [22][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new energy vehicle segment as a high-growth area within the automotive industry [15][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market followed the equity market, rising first and then falling in the 4 trading days before and after the holiday. As of October 10, the valuation of convertible bonds in each parity range remained at an absolute high above the 85th percentile since 2023, with poor overall odds for convertible bond assets. The inflow of incremental funds in the convertible bond market slowed down, and the subsequent parity and valuation of convertible bonds depend on the direction of the equity market [3][16]. - The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions due to new US tariff measures may cause short - term disturbances to market sentiment. With the intensive disclosure of the third - quarter reports of listed companies in mid - to late October, market volatility may increase. In terms of allocation, it is not advisable to be overly aggressive [3][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Trends Stock Market - In the 4 trading days from September 29 to October 10, after the holiday, the A - share market continued to rise on the first trading day and then declined. Gold stocks led the rise in the non - ferrous metals sector, and sectors such as steel and building decoration also performed well. The media sector underperformed due to weak box - office data during the National Day holiday [1][8]. - On September 29, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74%. On September 30, the A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index flat. On October 9, the A - share market rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.73%. On October 10, the A - share market fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.7%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.55% [8]. - In the 4 trading days before and after the holiday, most Shenwan first - level industries closed higher, with non - ferrous metals (11.89%), steel (7.89%), basic chemicals (4.62%), building decoration (4.30%), and building materials (4.10%) leading the gains; media (-3.70%), communication (-2.21%), social services (-1.19%), and banks (-0.92%) lagging behind [9]. Bond Market - The funds were relatively stable near the end of the quarter. With the September PMI data still in the contraction range, the bond market strengthened before the holiday. During the National Day holiday, data such as box - office and real - estate transactions were weak, global risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the capital market was generally loose after the quarter, leading to a further decline in bond yields. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.85% on Friday, down 3.21bp from September 28 [1][9]. Convertible Bond Market - In the 4 trading days before and after the holiday, most convertible bond issues closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.58% for the week, the median price rose 1.39%, the calculated arithmetic average parity fell 0.04% for the week, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.85% compared with the previous week [2][9]. - In terms of industries, most convertible bond industries closed higher, with beauty care (+4.81%), non - ferrous metals (+4.53%), non - bank finance (+3.84%), and steel (+3.74%) leading the gains; communication (-1.35%), household appliances (-0.24%), textile and apparel (+0.03%), and media (+0.39%) lagging behind [11]. - At the individual bond level, Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 (innovative drugs & change of actual controller), Jingda (controllable nuclear fusion concept), Lingyi (AI terminal hardware), Jingxing (Yushu robot concept), and Shuiyang (skincare products) convertible bonds led the gains; Huicheng (waste catalyst treatment), Tongguang (optical fiber cable), Sheng 24 (robot concept), Yitian (computing power concept), and Mengtai (polypropylene fiber & announced forced redemption) convertible bonds led the losses [2][12]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market in the 4 trading days before and after the holiday was 288.445 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 72.111 billion yuan, a decrease compared with the previous week [13]. Valuation Overview - As of October 10, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 47.91%, 32.17%, 28.71%, 18.69%, 15.24%, and 9.88% respectively, at the 98%/99%, 88%/82%, 95%/98%, 87%/84%, 91%/91%, and 87%/75% percentiles since 2010/2021 [17]. - For bond - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM for parities below 70 yuan was - 4.86%, at the 0%/1% percentile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 40.58%, at the 78%/67% percentile since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 2.32%, at the 69%/70% percentile since 2010/2021 [17]. Primary Market Tracking - From September 29 to October 10, 2025, Funeng Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. The underlying stock is Funeng Co., Ltd., with a market value of 28.302 billion yuan as of October 10. The company focuses on renewable and clean energy and large - scale energy storage projects. The scale of the issued convertible bonds is 3.802 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA+. After deducting issuance fees, the funds will be invested in the 2×660MW ultra - supercritical cogeneration project in Quanhuixin Petrochemical Industrial Park and the Mulan Pumped - Storage Power Station Project in Xianyou, Fujian [24]. - As of the announcements on October 10, there were no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the coming week (October 13 - 17, 2025). During September 29 - October 10, the exchange accepted the application of one company (Aoshikang), seven companies' plans passed the shareholders' meeting, and one company (Haitian Co., Ltd.) had a board of directors' plan. There were no new companies approved for registration or passed by the listing committee. As of now, there are 90 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 137.34 billion yuan, including 2 approved for registration with a total scale of 2.68 billion yuan and 8 passed by the listing committee with a total scale of 5.31 billion yuan [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the China Securities REITs Index declined by 0.3%. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 0.3% and - 0.1% respectively. In terms of the comparison of weekly price changes of major indices, China Securities All - Bond Index > China Securities Convertible Bond Index > China Securities REITs Index > CSI 300 Index. Most sectors ended in the red, with municipal facilities and ecological environmental protection leading the gains. As of October 10, the dividend yield of property REITs was 86BP higher than the average dividend yield of China Securities Dividend - paying Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year government bond yield was 207BP. The first foreign - funded consumer REIT was officially listed, which is a benchmark case for the internationalization, diversification, and specialization of China's public offering REITs market [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 826.77 points, with a weekly change of - 0.3%, performing worse than the China Securities All - Bond Index (+0.1%) and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index (0.0%), but better than the CSI 300 Index (- 0.5%). Year - to - date, the ranking of price changes of major indices was: CSI 300 (+17.3%) > China Securities Convertible Bond (+17.0%) > China Securities REITs (+4.7%) > China Securities All - Bond (+0.1%). In the past year, the return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was 5.4% with a volatility of 7.2%. Its return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index, but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index, but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index [2][6]. - **Market Capitalization and Turnover**: The total market capitalization of REITs decreased to 220.3 billion yuan on October 10, a decrease of 700 million yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.31%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from the previous week [2][10]. - **Sector Performance**: Most sectors ended in the red. From the perspective of different project attributes, the average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 0.3% and - 0.1% respectively. From the perspective of different project types, most REITs sectors ended in the red, with municipal facilities and ecological environmental protection leading the gains. The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increase were E Fund Guangzhou Development Zone High - tech Industrial Park REIT (+1.93%), Huatai Zijin Nanjing Jianye Industrial Park REIT (+1.35%), and China Asset Management Jinyu Intelligent Manufacturing Factory REIT (+1.03%) [1][3][17]. - **Trading Activity**: Among different project types, new infrastructure REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate this week, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.7%. Consumer infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume this week, accounting for 24.9% of the total REITs trading volume. In terms of capital flow of different REITs products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were CICC Principal Agricultural REIT (8.79 million yuan), China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT (4.45 million yuan), and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (3.29 million yuan) [3][24][25]. Primary Market Issuance - As of October 10, 2025, there was 1 REIT product in the "accepted" stage, 1 in the "declared" stage, 1 in the "inquired" stage, 4 in the "feedback received" stage, 7 in the "approved and awaiting listing" stage, and 12 first - issued products that had been listed on the exchange [27]. Valuation Tracking - **Valuation Metrics**: REITs have both bond - like and stock - like characteristics. From the bond - like perspective, the annualized cash distribution rate is concerned, and as of October 10, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public offering REITs was 6.5%. From the stock - like perspective, the relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs. The relative net value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and the fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks; IRR is the internal rate of return calculated by the cash - flow discount method; P/FFO is the current price divided by the cash flow generated from operations. The relative net value premium rate is a long - term perspective, while P/FFO is a short - term perspective [29]. - **Valuation Comparison**: Property - type REITs focus on dividend yield, while franchise - type REITs focus on internal rate of return. As of October 10, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 86BP higher than the average dividend yield of China Securities Dividend - paying Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year government bond yield was 207BP [32]. Industry News - On September 29, the first foreign - funded consumer REIT, Huaxia CapitaLand Commercial REIT, sponsored by CapitaLand Investment headquartered in Singapore, was successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The fund was planned to raise 2.2872 billion yuan, and the cumulative subscription funds before proportional allocation exceeded 309.17 billion yuan. The effective subscription multiples of public investors and offline investors reached 535.2 times and 252.6 times respectively [4][38]. - Huaxia CNOOC Commercial REIT will be officially offered for sale from October 13 to October 14, 2025, with an offering price of 5.281 yuan per share and a planned total fundraising of 1.5843 billion yuan. The underlying asset, Foshan Yingyuehu Ring Mall, is a benchmark self - held property of CNOOC in the mature operation stage, with significant location advantages [38].

Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased by 10%-20% since October, leading to a rise in electrolyte prices and an expected recovery in corporate profitability [1] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing, with companies likely to benefit from this trend [1] - Demand for lithium batteries remains high, with expectations for energy storage battery demand to exceed forecasts [1][66] Group 2: Green Methanol Industry - Goldwind Technology has initiated the production of 500,000 tons of green methanol in the first phase of its project, with plans for a total capacity of 1.45 million tons by the end of 2027 [2] - The overall planned capacity for green methanol by Goldwind Technology has reached 2.05 million tons per year, indicating a strong growth outlook for companies involved in this sector [2] Group 3: Energy Storage Industry - The cumulative bidding scale for energy storage systems in China reached 140GWh from January to September, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 21% [3] - In August, the total registered capacity for energy storage projects in Sichuan reached 7.02GW/16.45GWh, reflecting a significant demand for energy storage systems [3][91] Group 4: Power Grid Equipment Industry - The demand for transformers and power supply equipment continues to grow, driven by high AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) activity [4][38] - Key companies in the power grid equipment sector are expected to benefit from the anticipated increase in high-voltage bidding and AIDC-related demand [4][38] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Sunshine Power, Guodian NARI, and Xuchang Electric are recommended for investment due to their strong performance and growth potential in the energy sector [5] - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of the power grid equipment sector, progress in green methanol projects, and fluctuations in lithium battery material prices [4][5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月13日 商贸零售行业 10 月投资策略暨三季报前瞻 优于大市 消费整体平稳增长，把握细分板块配置机遇 4）跨境电商：三季度主要企业预计收入端仍受益于海外需求稳步增长和国 内优质产品创新助推，但利润端受外部环境扰动预计分化明显。当前外部关 贸环境虽仍有变数，但国内优质头部平台型企业通过灵活的关税应对措施， 以及坚实的产品力壁垒，长期来看已经具备了强抗风险韧性。 投资建议：维持板块"优于大市"评级。在大盘水位走高下消费板块滞涨已 久，Q4 在海内外旺季及大促的基本面带动下，存在板块轮动下的补涨机会。 1）美容护理：存量市场下，产品积极迭代升级，渠道精细化运营的国货龙 头有望持续提升市占率，推荐：上美股份、青木科技、毛戈平、上海家化、 登康口腔、若羽臣等。2）黄金珠宝：在当前金价持续高位以及工艺进步下 为黄金品类赋予了悦己和保值两大新消费特质，积极通过差异化设计布局一 口价产品的企业，有望持续受益，推荐：潮宏基、周大福、曼卡龙等。3） 线下零售：板块整体偏内需为主，受外部环境扰动影响较小，短期可关注兼 具改善主线和低估值低位置标的：名创优品、重庆百货、永辉超市等。4） 跨境电商：外 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment sector, highlighting the ongoing price increases in lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes, which are expected to boost profitability in the lithium battery supply chain [1][4][66] - The green methanol industry is advancing, with significant capacity expansions planned by companies like Goldwind Technology, which aims to reach an annual production capacity of 1.45 million tons by the end of 2027 [2][4] - The AI data center capital expenditures are increasing, benefiting power equipment companies as major tech firms announce substantial investments in data center infrastructure [2][28] Lithium Battery Industry - The demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with short-term production continuing at high levels and energy storage battery demand expected to exceed expectations [1][66] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased by 10%-20% since October, leading to improved profitability across various segments of the lithium battery supply chain [1][66] - Companies to watch in the lithium battery supply chain include Tianci Materials, Xinzhou Bang, CATL, and Yiwei Lithium Energy [1][66] Green Methanol Industry - Goldwind Technology has initiated the production of a 500,000-ton green methanol project and signed agreements for further expansions, bringing its total planned capacity to 2.05 million tons per year [2][4] - The report expresses optimism about the performance growth of companies with forward-looking investments in green methanol, particularly Goldwind Technology and Yunda Co [2][4] Energy Storage Industry - The domestic energy storage system bidding has seen a significant increase, with a cumulative bidding scale of 140 GWh from January to September, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 21% [3][91] - The Sichuan province's energy storage projects indicate a substantial increase in registered capacity, laying a solid foundation for the stable development of the domestic energy storage market from 2026 to 2027 [3][91] - Key companies in the energy storage supply chain include Sungrow Power, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Ningde Times [3][91] Power Grid Equipment Industry - The power grid equipment sector continues to experience robust growth, driven by high demand for transformers and power supply equipment due to the ongoing AIDC boom [4][38] - Companies such as Guodian NARI, Sifang Co., and Xuchang Electric are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [4][38] Wind Power Industry - The wind power sector is witnessing a simultaneous increase in volume and profitability, with both onshore and offshore projects ramping up [53][56] - Companies like Goldwind Technology and Dongfang Cable are recommended for their strong positions in the market [53][56] Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery of the power grid equipment sector, progress in green methanol industry layouts, fluctuations in lithium material prices, advancements in solid-state battery industrialization, and the release of global energy storage installation demands [4][66]

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the structural imbalance in income distribution and its impact on demand, leading to a persistent "demand gap" that poses a fundamental challenge to economic stability [7][8] - It highlights the evolution of China's debt cycle and supply-demand balance from 1992 to 2024, indicating a significant shift in leverage patterns and the emergence of deflationary pressures [8] - The report emphasizes the need for income distribution reform and government spending structure optimization to address the current deflationary environment [9] Industry and Company - The banking wealth management report indicates that the impact of new sales regulations is manageable, with a slight decrease in the overall scale of wealth management products to 30.8 trillion yuan, down approximately 0.4 trillion yuan month-on-month [21] - The mechanical industry report notes a 5.29% increase in the mechanical industry index in September, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.09 percentage points, with a focus on AI infrastructure and humanoid robots as key investment opportunities [23][24] - The textile and apparel report highlights a recovery in Vietnam's textile exports in September, with a significant increase in wool prices, suggesting potential growth in the sector [29][31] - The report on humanoid robots indicates a growing commercial viability, with several manufacturers receiving large orders, suggesting a positive long-term investment outlook [26][27] - The AI infrastructure section emphasizes the increasing demand for AI cooling solutions, driven by major tech investments, and recommends focusing on companies involved in AI cooling and related technologies [25][27]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[4][5][7] - The report primarily focuses on market performance, fund issuance, and fund performance metrics without detailing any quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[4][5][7] - No formulas, construction processes, or evaluations of quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[4][5][7]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors related to financial engineering or quantitative investment strategies[1][2][3][4]