证券研究报告 | 2025年10月14日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-10-13 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3889.50 | 13231.46 | 4593.97 | 14304.81 | 3815.58 | 1473.01 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.19 | -0.92 | -0.49 | -0.97 | -0.77 | 1.40 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 10854.13 | 12693.27 | 7140.01 | 4463.79 | 5741.84 | 1115.59 | $\frac{10}{100}\sum\limits_{\begin{subarray}{c}\text{\rm{B}}\\ \text{\rm{B}}\end{subarray}}\frac{10}{100}\sum\limits_{\begin{subarray}{c}\text{\rm{B}}\\ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][15] Core Views - The company has shown continuous revenue and profit growth due to product structure optimization and new capacity ramp-up [2][4][15] - The approval of D-Allulose in China is expected to drive market demand growth [2][10][15] - D-Allulose has functional advantages such as low calories, antioxidant properties, and a taste profile similar to sucrose, filling a gap in the functional sweetener market in China [2][13][15] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 969 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 million yuan, up 44.93% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 320 million yuan, a 10.61% increase year-on-year, but a 4.85% decline quarter-on-quarter [2][4] - The company’s net profit for Q3 2025 was 95 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.78% [2][4] Product Development and Market Position - The company is a leader in the fields of prebiotics, dietary fibers, and healthy sweeteners (D-Allulose) in China, with a high-end product positioning [3][15] - The company plans to increase its production capacity for dietary fibers and D-Allulose, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit from 2025 to 2027 [3][15] - The company currently has a production capacity of 15,000 tons of D-Allulose and plans to build an additional capacity of nearly 20,000 tons in Thailand to meet growing domestic and international demand [2][10][15] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is as follows: net profit of 346 million yuan in 2025, 432 million yuan in 2026, and 503 million yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 40.8%, 24.9%, and 16.4% respectively [3][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [1][4][5]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a divergence in fundamentals, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring third-quarter performance [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential for stock price increases due to low expectations and the possibility of demand recovery, particularly in the snack, beverage, and frozen food segments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.16% this week, with A-shares down 0.20% and H-shares up 0.42%, indicating defensive allocation demand [1]. - The top performers in the sector included Zhuangyuan Pasture (21.07%), Yangyuan Beverage (16.80%), and Guangming Meat Industry (6.48%) [1]. 2. Alcoholic Beverages - The report notes that the liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with a focus on changes in the industry as the autumn sugar market approaches. Recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu for their strategic advantages and growth potential [2][10]. - The report anticipates a 15-20% decline in sales volume during the upcoming holiday season, with a shift towards mass-market consumption [10]. 3. Beverages - The beverage sector is experiencing stable demand recovery, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage showing strong performance. The report suggests focusing on the growth of sugar-free tea and energy drinks [2][15]. - The beverage sector's revenue increased by 18% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, despite entering the off-season [15]. 4. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly in the konjac snack category, where leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi are expected to perform well [3][12]. - The snack industry is transitioning from channel-driven growth to category-driven growth, increasing competition among brands [12]. 5. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is seeing a gradual recovery in demand, with a focus on leading companies like Yili, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements by 2025 [14]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring inventory clearance and new product performance in the dairy supply chain [13][14]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Baba Food, Dongpeng Beverage, Weilong, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have shown strong performance and positive earnings expectations [3][16]. - The report suggests that any changes in supply and demand dynamics could catalyze stock price increases, particularly in segments with high growth potential [3][4].

Core Views - The multi-metal strategic attributes continue to strengthen, driving value reassessment in the non-ferrous metal industry [1] - The investment rating remains "outperform" [2] Tin Market Analysis - Global exchange visible inventory has significantly decreased, with a peak of 22,763 tons in May 2024, followed by a reduction to below 9,000 tons by the end of 2022 [5][73] - The price of tin is expected to rise due to the limited number of new global tin mining projects, with most expected to come online after 2027 [51] Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with expectations for further increases in gold prices through 2025 [5] Energy Metals - The implementation of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to lead to a long-term bull market for cobalt prices [6] - Lithium prices are rebounding, supported by strong demand in the global energy storage market, with supply disruptions still present [6] Minor Metals - The strategic attributes of minor metals are strengthening, with rare earth export controls tightening and significant price increases observed [6] - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints [8] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to large copper mine production cuts, with a focus on monitoring inventory changes [7][9] - Aluminum production in China is nearing its peak, with a fragile balance in the market that could shift to shortages if demand increases [7][32] Recommended Investment Targets - The report recommends a diversified portfolio including companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Northern Rare Earth [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the insurance sector [3][20]. Core Insights - Recent favorable policies in the insurance industry, including innovations in health insurance and regulations on non-auto insurance, are expected to benefit leading insurance companies and enhance their stable development [4]. - The dual drivers of policy benefits and improvements in asset returns highlight the investment value of the insurance sector [4][20]. - The performance of bank stocks, which are heavily invested in by insurance funds, is significantly linked to the investment value of insurance stocks [4][20]. Summary by Sections Policy and Market Environment - The insurance industry has seen multiple policy benefits recently, which are expected to improve the quality and long-term development path of the industry [5]. - The introduction of new policies for health insurance and the formal implementation of the "reporting and operation in one" policy for non-auto insurance are key developments [5][7]. Product Innovations - The return of dividend-type critical illness insurance after a two-year pause is anticipated to create new opportunities for product innovation and competitive differentiation among insurance companies [5]. - The characteristics of dividend-type health insurance, such as "low guaranteed + high floating," help insurance companies reduce rigid repayment costs and alleviate interest margin loss pressure [5][6]. Financial Performance and Market Trends - The A-share market has performed well, with the CSI 300 index showing a cumulative increase of 17.33% this year, which is expected to enhance the investment return expectations for insurance companies [12]. - The linkage between bank stocks and insurance stocks is reinforced, as banks represent the largest sector in the insurance fund's equity holdings, accounting for 36.63% of the total market value [16][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major players in the insurance sector, including China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance, due to their potential for growth and the current under-allocation of public funds in insurance stocks [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant rise in the public utility and environmental indices, with the public utility index increasing by 3.45% and the environmental index by 1.49% during the week [1][31]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing support from national policies for renewable energy development, which is expected to stabilize profitability in the renewable energy sector [3][29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, while the public utility index rose by 3.45% and the environmental index by 1.49% [1][31]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 7.83%, hydropower by 2.30%, and renewable energy generation by 3.72% [1][32]. Important Events - Multiple provinces have released documents related to the "136 Document" and initiated or completed bidding for new energy incremental project pricing mechanisms [1][23]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and regional power companies like Shanghai Electric due to stable profitability [3][29]. - The report suggests investing in leading renewable energy companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy, as well as high-quality offshore wind companies [3][29]. - Nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profitability [3][29]. - High-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power are recommended for their defensive attributes [3][29]. - The report also highlights investment opportunities in the environmental sector, particularly in water and waste incineration industries [3][30]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Huadian International (600027.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.49 in 2024 and 0.62 in 2025 [5]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) is also rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.76 in 2024 and 0.81 in 2025 [5]. - Recommendations extend to companies like Guangxi Energy and Funiu Co., which are positioned well in the renewable energy sector [5][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector, indicating expected performance above the market index [3][41]. Core Views - The overall consumption growth remains stable, with retail sales in August 2025 reaching CNY 3.97 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The growth in commodity retail sales was 3.6%, while catering revenue grew by 2.1% [1][14]. - The report highlights that individual stock performance will be more significant than overall industry trends in the current market environment, emphasizing the importance of stock selection [1][11]. Summary by Sections Beauty and Personal Care - The third quarter is typically a slow season for the cosmetics industry, but marketing efforts have been advanced in preparation for Q4 promotions. Despite a supportive year-on-year growth forecast, rising online channel costs and a lack of product innovation are expected to increase expense ratios, leading to continued stock differentiation within the sector [1][12]. Gold and Jewelry - In August 2025, the gold and jewelry sector saw a retail sales increase of 16.8% year-on-year. The sector is expected to perform well due to low base effects and rising gold prices. Products that appeal to younger consumers, such as fixed-price gold items, are anticipated to see growth above the industry average [1][12]. Supermarkets and Department Stores - From January to August 2025, department store retail sales slightly increased by 1.2%, while supermarket sales grew by 4.9%. The sector is undergoing a transformation, and companies are expected to stabilize their performance in the second half of the year, setting the stage for a potential rebound in 2026 [2][12]. Cross-Border E-commerce - Major companies in the cross-border e-commerce sector are expected to benefit from steady overseas demand and domestic product innovation. However, profit margins may vary due to external environmental disruptions. Leading domestic platforms are seen as resilient against risks due to their strong product capabilities and flexible tariff strategies [2][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Beauty and Personal Care: Upgrading products and refining channel operations are expected to enhance market share for domestic leaders like Shiseido, Aokang Technology, and others [3][41]. - Gold and Jewelry: Companies focusing on differentiated designs and fixed-price products, such as Chow Tai Fook and Man Ka Long, are expected to benefit from current market conditions [3][41]. - Offline Retail: Companies like Miniso and Yonghui Supermarket are highlighted for their potential to improve performance amid a stable domestic demand environment [3][41]. - Cross-Border E-commerce: Companies with strong risk resilience, such as Small Commodity City and Focus Technology, are recommended for investment during market dips [3][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][5][29]. Core Views - The report highlights the significant growth in the public utility and environmental sectors, with the public utility index rising by 3.45% and the environmental index by 1.49% during the week [1][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of green methanol production, which significantly reduces carbon emissions throughout its lifecycle, and outlines the two main production routes: biological methanol and electro-methanol [2][15]. - The report suggests that coal and electricity prices are expected to decline simultaneously, allowing thermal power profitability to remain reasonable, and recommends major thermal power companies such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, while the public utility index rose by 3.45% and the environmental index by 1.49%, with respective relative returns of 3.97% and 2.00% [1][31]. - Within the power sector, thermal power increased by 7.83%, hydropower by 2.30%, and renewable energy generation by 3.72% [1][31]. Important Events - As of October 12, 2025, multiple provinces have released documents related to the "136 Document" and initiated or completed competitive pricing for new energy incremental projects [1][23]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends several companies across different sectors: - For thermal power: Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][29]. - For renewable energy: Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and regional offshore wind companies [3][29]. - For nuclear power: China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [3][29]. - For hydropower: Yangtze Power [3][29]. - For gas: Jiufeng Energy [3][29]. - For environmental services: China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [3][30]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, all rated as "Outperform" [5][8]: - Huadian International (Code: 600027.SH) - Longyuan Power (Code: 001289.SZ) - China Nuclear Power (Code: 601985.SH) - Yangtze Power (Code: 600900.SH) - Jiufeng Energy (Code: 605090.SH) Special Research - The report discusses the production routes for green methanol, emphasizing the need for renewable hydrogen and carbon sources [2][15]. - It also details the competitive pricing results for new energy projects across various provinces, highlighting specific prices and execution periods [23][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [4][36]. Core Views - The media sector experienced a decline of 3.58% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, but outperforming the ChiNext index. Notable gainers included Vision China and Yaowang Technology, while major losers included Guomai Culture and Hengdian Film [1][11]. - Nvidia's $2 billion investment in xAI and the issuance of guidelines for AI applications in government sectors are significant developments, indicating a push towards AI integration in governance [1][15][36]. - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from a new product cycle, while the film industry shows signs of bottoming out, presenting potential investment opportunities [3][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media industry saw a 3.58% decline, ranking 29th among all sectors. The CSI 300 index fell by 0.51%, while the ChiNext index dropped by 3.86% [11][12]. Key Developments - Nvidia invested $2 billion in xAI, part of a larger $20 billion funding round, which includes $7.5 billion in equity and up to $12.5 billion in debt [1][15]. - The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines for AI deployment in government, marking a structured approach to AI integration [1][16]. Box Office and Media Updates - The box office for the week (October 6-12) reached 652 million yuan, with top films including "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" (146 million yuan, 22.4% share) and "731" (93 million yuan, 14.3% share) [2][19]. - Popular variety shows included "The Wonderful Night Season 2" and "Flowers and Youth" [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gaming sector's new product cycle and the potential recovery in the film industry. Specific stocks to watch include Kaiying Network and Mango Excellent Media [3][36]. - The report highlights the importance of AI applications across various sectors, including marketing and education, suggesting a growing trend towards AI integration [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4]. Core Views - The automotive industry is transitioning into a technological era, with electric, intelligent, and connected vehicles driving growth. The report emphasizes the importance of energy flow applications in electrification and data flow applications in intelligence [14][15]. - The report highlights the rise of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends [4][25]. - The forecast for the domestic automotive market indicates a compound annual growth rate of 2% over the next 20 years, with significant growth in new energy vehicles [15][22]. Monthly Sales and Market Performance - In September, the narrow passenger car market is expected to see a retail sales volume of approximately 2.15 million units, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [1][10]. - The automotive sector's performance in September showed a 6.38% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points [2][10]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC Motors are rated as "Outperform" with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong future performance [5][10]. - Leap Motor is projected to have an EPS of 0.62 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 107, while Geely is expected to have an EPS of 1.57 with a PE of 13 [5]. Market Trends and Innovations - The report notes significant advancements in autonomous driving technologies, with companies like Tesla and local players making strides in robotaxi operations and intelligent vehicle features [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new product cycles, particularly for companies like Huawei and Xiaomi entering the automotive space, which are expected to drive growth in the industry [3][4]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands that are rising in the electric and intelligent vehicle segments, as well as companies involved in the supply of incremental components [4][25]. - Specific recommendations include companies like Top Group, Horizon Robotics, and various domestic auto parts suppliers that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry [4][24].