Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Core Insights - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for the global development, production, and commercialization of its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, SYH2086, with a total deal value exceeding USD2 billion [6][8] - The agreement includes an upfront payment of USD120 million, potential milestone payments of up to USD1.955 billion, and royalties based on annual net sales of SYH2086 [6][8] - The partnership with Madrigal, a leading biotech in the metabolic disease space, is seen as a strong validation of CSPC's oral GLP-1RA and is expected to accelerate clinical development in the U.S. [8][9] - This deal is considered an additional upside beyond previously guided licensing deals, highlighting the value of CSPC's small-molecule platform [9] - CSPC's AI-powered small-molecule platform has also licensed multiple assets to AstraZeneca, with a total deal value reaching USD5.3 billion [10] Summary by Sections Licensing Agreement - CSPC has granted Madrigal exclusive rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize SYH2086 globally while retaining rights for other oral GLP-1 products in China [6][8] - The total potential revenue from this agreement could reach USD2.075 billion, including upfront and milestone payments [6][8] Clinical Development - SYH2086 is currently in the preclinical stage, and the competitive landscape in the metabolic disease field is noted to be highly challenging [7][8] - CSPC's EGFR ADC has shown superior efficacy in Phase I clinical trials compared to conventional ADC drugs, with lower rates of hematologic toxicity [11] - CSPC's siRNA platform has advanced three candidates into clinical stages, indicating potential for future collaborations [12] Market Potential - The partnership with Madrigal opens up potential markets in obesity, diabetes, and MASH, enhancing the growth prospects for CSPC [8][9] - The report expresses optimism regarding future out-licensing opportunities for other products in CSPC's pipeline, which could act as catalysts for stock price growth [9]

Group 1 - The Politburo meeting on July 30 acknowledged the positive economic momentum in the first half of the year while emphasizing the need for bottom-line thinking and proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][8] - Key areas for risk mitigation identified include real estate, local government debt, and capital markets, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and effective investment [1][3][9] - The meeting highlighted the importance of service consumption and proposed measures to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment in the context of a weak real estate sector [10][11] Group 2 - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October will directly address the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, reflecting the urgency of planning in the current international environment [4][11] - The meeting's content was largely in line with expectations, with limited incremental policies introduced, leading to a muted market reaction [12]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for L'Oreal with an outperform rating, expecting a relative return exceeding the benchmark index over the next 12-18 months [17]. Core Insights - L'Oreal's revenue for the first half of 2025 (25H1) increased by 1.59% year-over-year, slightly surpassing Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 1.56% [4][9]. - The company's gross profit rose by 1.4%, also above the expected 1.2%, but the gross margin decreased to 74.7%, down 0.1 percentage points year-over-year, which was below the forecast of 75.1% [4][9]. - Operating profit grew by 3.1%, significantly higher than the anticipated 0.5% increase, while net profit attributable to common shareholders fell by 7.9%, contrasting with the expected growth of 1.8% [4][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by division showed varied performance: - Professional Products: +4.9% YoY, exceeding the forecast of +1.4% [4][5]. - Consumer Products: +1.1% YoY, above the forecast of +0.6% [4][5]. - Luxe: +1.0% YoY, below the forecast of +2.1% [4][5]. - Dermatological Beauty: +1.7% YoY, slightly below the forecast of +1.8% [4][5]. - Revenue by geographic zone also varied: - Europe: +3.4% YoY, below the forecast of +4.5% [4][5]. - North America: +0.4% YoY, exceeding the forecast of -1.0% [4][5]. - North Asia: -1.5% YoY, below the forecast of -0.7% [4][5]. - SAPMENA-SSA: +9.2% YoY, above the forecast of +7.6% [4][5]. - Latin America: -1.0% YoY, exceeding the forecast of -3.2% [4][5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin decreased to 74.7%, which is a slight decline from the previous year and lower than the expected margin [4][5]. - The operating profit of €4,740 million reflects a strong performance compared to expectations, while the net profit attributable to common shareholders of €3,368 million indicates a significant decline [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on 3S BIO with an "OUTPERFORM" rating and a target price of HK$45.50, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company's core business is robust, with innovative products expected to drive future growth. Key products include TPO, EPO, and the leading hair loss treatment brand Mandi, which dominate their respective markets [2][9]. - The company has a strong pipeline with over 30 projects in development, including four innovative drugs currently undergoing NDA approval, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth [2][12]. - The partnership with Pfizer for the PD-1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707 is expected to reshape the global valuation landscape, with peak global sales projected to reach between US$11.3 billion and US$13.4 billion [3][6][31]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - 3S BIO has established itself as a leading biopharmaceutical company in China, focusing on nephrology, hematology, oncology, and other therapeutic areas. The company has shown steady revenue growth from RMB 55.9 billion in 2020 to an estimated RMB 91.1 billion in 2024 [9][12]. - The company’s core products, including TPO and EPO, maintain leading market shares of 67% and 42% respectively, ensuring a solid cash flow foundation [2][11]. Product Pipeline - The innovative pipeline includes promising candidates such as SSS06 (long-acting erythropoietin) and IL-17A monoclonal antibody, with peak sales potential estimated at RMB 7-10 billion [2][12]. - The company has also introduced new products in the consumer healthcare sector, targeting the growing market for hair loss treatments, with Mandi achieving sales of RMB 1.34 billion in 2024 [15]. Strategic Partnerships - The collaboration with Pfizer for SSGJ-707, a PD-1×VEGF dual antibody, is a significant milestone, with Pfizer paying US$1.25 billion upfront and potential milestone payments of US$4.8 billion, highlighting the product's anticipated market potential [31][33]. - The dual antibody is positioned to capture a substantial share of the oncology market, projected to exceed US$200 billion, as it demonstrates superior efficacy compared to existing PD-1 monoclonal antibodies [18][22]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 19.18 billion, RMB 11.90 billion, and RMB 14.05 billion respectively, with net profits expected to reach RMB 9.36 billion, RMB 2.73 billion, and RMB 3.33 billion [7][9]. - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a WACC of 10% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%, supporting the target price of HK$45.50 per share [7].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for Cadence, indicating an "Outperform" rating based on its strong financial performance and growth prospects [2][12]. Core Insights - Cadence reported a total revenue of $1.275 billion for Q2 2025, representing a 20% year-on-year increase, and Non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.65, up 29% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2][8]. - The growth was primarily driven by strong demand for AI-driven products and comprehensive growth across all business lines, including EDA, IP, and system design and analysis [2][12]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $5.21 billion to $5.27 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13% [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Cadence's Q2 2025 revenue was $1.275 billion, exceeding market expectations of $1.25 billion, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 42.8%, up from 40.1% the previous year [2][9]. - The GAAP operating margin was reported at 19.0%, down from 27.7% due to a one-time charge related to a settlement [2][9]. Business Segments - The core EDA business grew by 16%, driven by the adoption of advanced process nodes, with over 50% of designs using Cadence Cerebrus [3][10]. - The IP business saw over 25% growth, fueled by AI and HPC infrastructure demands, while the system design and analysis business grew by 35% [3][10]. Product Innovation and Partnerships - Cadence launched the Cerebrus AI Studio, an AI-driven SoC design platform, and the Millennium M2000 AI supercomputer, which offers significant performance improvements [4][11]. - Strategic partnerships were expanded with industry leaders like SK hynix, ADI, and Samsung Foundry, enhancing collaboration in EDA software and advanced technologies [4][11]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue between $1.305 billion and $1.335 billion, with Non-GAAP earnings per share projected at $1.75 to $1.81 [12]. - Cadence plans to utilize at least 50% of its free cash flow for stock repurchases, indicating confidence in its financial health and growth trajectory [12].

"反内卷"下的涨价 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 29 期） 本报告导读： 消费端服务消费热度延续，投资端基建蓄力改善，生产稳中有升，工业品在 "反内 卷" 下涨价明显。 投资要点： lilinzhi2@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040087 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.27 021-23185646 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 liangzhonghua@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Report] 相关报告 美国：居民消费仍具韧性 2025.07.20 生产改善，消费分化 2025.07.20 生产改善、消费平稳 2025.07.13 特朗普关税博弈再起，全球资产短期扰动 2025.07.13 外需平淡、内需分化 2025.07.06 2025-07-30 [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费方面，商品消费仍需提振，服务消费中居 民出行、观影热度 ...

Profit Trends - In June, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of -4.3%, an improvement of 4.8 percentage points from May's decline[3] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to June was -1.8%, lower than the -1.1% recorded from January to May[3] Profit Margins and Industry Performance - The profit margin for June was 6.0%, showing a slight recovery from May, while the cumulative profit margin was 5.2%[6] - The automotive industry experienced the most significant profit recovery, benefiting from lower raw material prices and policy support[7] Demand and Inventory Dynamics - Industrial product inventory growth was 3.1% from January to June, indicating a passive destocking phase for enterprises[13] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises in June was 1.6%, reflecting a slight recovery compared to the previous month[13] Future Outlook - Upcoming policies, including the "old-for-new" subsidy program, are expected to stimulate consumption and investment, potentially improving enterprise profits[17] - The "anti-involution" actions in various industries may help restore profit margins by reducing price competition[17] Risks - Uncertainties in trade relations and the effectiveness of policy measures such as "anti-involution" and "old-for-new" initiatives pose risks to profit recovery[18]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance will officially take effect on August 1, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) releasing relevant guidelines and documents [20][22] - The HKMA anticipates issuing the first batch of stablecoin licenses as early as next year, with no limit on the types of currencies or the scale of issuance [27][28] - Continuous improvements in Hong Kong's virtual asset regulatory framework are expected to stimulate market demand and expand application scenarios for stablecoins [24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Regulatory Framework - The HKMA has established a regulatory regime for stablecoin issuers, which includes guidelines on reserve asset management, compliance for issuance and redemption, and financial standards [23][24] - The guidelines emphasize risk management, compliance, information disclosure, and consumer protection [23][24] 2. Sandbox Participants and Use Cases - As of July 2024, three institutions have been announced as participants in the HKMA's stablecoin issuer "sandbox": JD Coinlink Technology, RD InnoTech, and a joint venture involving Standard Chartered Bank, Animoca Brands, and Hong Kong Telecommunications [8][28] - Use cases for these participants include cross-border payments, investment trading, and virtual asset transactions [28] 3. Licensing and Competitive Advantage - Companies that obtain early mover advantages in licensing, particularly for stablecoin issuers and virtual asset trading platforms (VATP), are likely to become major beneficiaries in the industry [25][15] - The report highlights that online brokers with a large customer base and VATP licenses, such as Futu, will have competitive advantages [25][15] 4. Market Demand and Future Outlook - The official launch of Hong Kong dollar-pegged stablecoins is expected to facilitate more efficient cross-border fund flows and extend the application of stablecoins beyond the cryptocurrency ecosystem [24][25] - The report suggests that ongoing regulatory enhancements will activate market demand for virtual assets and broaden their application scenarios [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company or industry Core Insights - Celestica achieved Q2 2025 revenues of $2.89 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.39, both exceeding the high end of guidance ranges. The adjusted operating margin reached 7.4%, the highest in company history, and adjusted ROIC was 35.5%, up from 26.6% year-over-year, driven by higher operating profit and strong working capital management [1][9]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Celestica's Q2 2025 revenue was $2.89 billion, with an adjusted EPS of $1.39, surpassing expectations. The adjusted operating margin was 7.4%, marking a historical high for the company. The adjusted ROIC increased to 35.5% from 26.6% the previous year, attributed to improved operating profit and effective working capital management [1][9]. Segment Performance - **ATS Segment**: Revenue totaled $819 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand in capital equipment and recovery in industrial businesses. The segment margin improved to 5.3%, up 70 basis points, mainly due to enhanced profitability in the A&D business. ATS accounted for 28% of total revenue [2][10]. - **CCS Segment**: Revenue reached $2.07 billion, up 28% year-over-year, propelled by a 75% growth in the communications end market. HPS networking revenues surged 82% to $1.2 billion, representing 43% of total revenue, due to the ramp-up of 800G switch programs and strong demand from hyperscalers. The segment margin improved to 8.3%, up 130 basis points, benefiting from a higher mix of HPS revenues and productivity gains. CCS comprised 72% of total revenue [2][11]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Inventory balance was $1.92 billion, increasing by $130 million sequentially and $74 million year-over-year. Capital expenditures were $33 million, representing 1.1% of revenue. Free cash flow for the quarter was $120 million, up $54 million year-over-year. Gross debt stood at $823 million, with a net debt position of $509 million and a leverage ratio of 0.9, improving by 0.2 sequentially [3][12]. Revenue and EPS Guidance - For Q3 2025, revenue is projected between $2.875 billion and $3.125 billion, indicating a 20% growth at the midpoint. Adjusted EPS is anticipated to be between $1.37 and $1.53, reflecting a 39% growth at the midpoint. Assuming midpoint results, the non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be 7.4%, up 60 basis points year-over-year, with an adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 19% [4][13]. End Market Outlook - **ATS Segment**: Revenue is expected to decline in the low single-digit percentage range due to reduced A&D volumes from the non-renewal of a margin-dilutive program [5][14]. - **CCS Segment**: Communications end market revenue is projected to grow in the low 60% range, supported by ongoing demand for networking switches. However, enterprise end market revenue is expected to decrease by mid-20% due to a transition in AI/ML compute programs, with new generation programs ramping in Q3 [5][15]. Annual Financial Outlook - Revenue guidance for 2025 has been raised from $10.85 billion to $11.55 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 20%. Adjusted EPS is increased from $5 to $5.50 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 42%, with an anticipated non-GAAP operating margin of 7.4% [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the forum [2][3]. Core Insights - The forum emphasized the need to reduce AI computing costs and promote technology adoption to accelerate the implementation of AI in the real economy, marking a shift from foundational model capabilities to practical applications that create tangible value [2][3][18]. - The concept of "Open Symbiosis" was highlighted, indicating that no single company can dominate the AI landscape, and collaboration among over 20,000 partners is essential for building a cohesive ecosystem [3][19]. - The focus is shifting towards inference solutions, with a significant demand for cost-effective computing, as the ratio of inference to training computing is expected to reach 1000:1 in the future [4][20]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On July 28, 2025, ZTE hosted the "Computing Power for All, AI for Reality" forum as part of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC), gathering leaders from government, academia, and industry [16][17]. Industry Trends - The forum's discussions reflected a consensus on the transition from "Model is King" to "Application is Core," emphasizing the practical value of AI in real-world scenarios [18]. - The launch of a medical all-in-one machine that enhances doctor efficiency tenfold exemplifies the industry's focus on creating real value through AI [18]. Technological Developments - The report noted advancements in AI inference architecture, particularly through technologies like "Mooncake" that optimize memory usage and reduce hardware costs, making powerful AI models more accessible [21][20]. - Companies like JD Group and China Southern Power Grid showcased their large-scale applications of AI in various sectors, highlighting the importance of green electricity in supporting AI computing [21]. Ecosystem Collaboration - The importance of an open ecosystem and hardware-software synergy was reiterated by representatives from major cloud providers, indicating a collective effort to build large models and ultra-large-scale computing clusters [21].